Turning very warm or hot with thunderstorm potential Sun eve 23rd---->

lawred2 · 22-06-2019 10:05am

Mortelaro wrote: »

Sea fog is a slow moving phenomenon in a slow moving atmosphere
It's not as prevalent when you have a driving flow like we will have next week as opposed to just the sea breezes you get under the type of meandering high pressure systems we had last year

The biggest drag on temps anywhere looks to me like active thunderstorms ....

Sounds good to me...

JanuarySnowstor · 22-06-2019 11:10am

The 06z run is not following ukmo and ecm....no real heat evident all week tbh

Oscar Bravo · 22-06-2019 11:32am

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Waterford

Persistent, and at times, heavy rain during Sunday will lead to accumulations between 25 to 40mm.
There is potential for this warning to be extended to include other counties.

Valid: Sunday 23 June 2019 05:00 to Sunday 23 June 2019 21:00

Issued: Saturday 22 June 2019 11:00

Updated: Saturday 22 June 2019 11:00

squarecircles · 22-06-2019 11:33am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The 06z run is not following ukmo and ecm....no real heat evident all week tbh

poor old gfs 06z, hopefully it will have smelled the coffe by evening time

Little snowy old me · 22-06-2019 12:11pm

Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.

squarecircles · 22-06-2019 12:22pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.

The ECM AND UKMO are still onboard for a hot week,most models are infact,except the GFS, its classic GFS behaviour, it picked up on the plume first,then it likes to backtrack - drop the idea,before coming onboard again.

PLUS we could be having our first rumbles of thunder as soon as tomorrow night.

JCX BXC · 22-06-2019 12:33pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.

You're basing this off just the GFS?

squarecircles · 22-06-2019 1:27pm

Theres a muggy quality to the air here in West Mayo already,very dead outside.

Mullaghteelin · 22-06-2019 2:08pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Based on some of the latest runs, it is all going pear shaped. I'm expecting a week of muggy weather with temps of 16 to 18 and maybe 21 at best in sunshine. Some distant rumbles of storms affecting Wales and the Irish Sea. We will miss out while Wales and England sizzle and rumble.

Even the gfs solution could see temps approach high twenties in sheltered parts of the North and west by the end of the week.
Don't be suprised if the hottest spots end up being western coastal fringes of Ireland and Wales, especially to the lee of high ground.

Elevated storms can pop anywhere with little warning, Monday looks interesting.
Its going to be a very unusual pattern, regardless of how the specific details through the week chop and change.

Artane2002 · 22-06-2019 2:18pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

You're basing this off just the GFS?

Even the GFS isn't that pessimistic... you can also add 2-3c to the 2m temperatures that the GFS shows because of its cold bias.

Little snowy old me · 22-06-2019 2:36pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

You're basing this off just the GFS?

I know I shouldn't but yes I am. I really want us all to have a hot thundery week. Im not being pessimistic for the sake of it and should know by now that the GFS can throw out deviations.

Mortelaro · 22-06-2019 2:40pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I know I shouldn't but yes I am. I really want us all to have a hot thundery week. Im not being pessimistic for the sake of it and should know by now that the GFS can throw out deviations.

It's not currently the perceived wisdom of forecasters at the moment that the 06Z gfs is anywhere near the mark
So relax

MidMan25 · 22-06-2019 2:48pm

Why are people replying to this WUM? Anytime anything interesting is happening with our weather they turn up with their act.

pistolpetes11 · 22-06-2019 3:37pm

Please keep on topic , also you can report PM’s from the PM itself

MidMan25 · 22-06-2019 3:49pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Please keep on topic , also you can report PM’s from the PM itself

Not on mobile?

uck51js9zml2yt · 22-06-2019 4:09pm

Great news. Potential for heavy rain and warm temperatures.

Silage is just cut and baled.
Slurry will be getting spread Monday/ Tuesday.
Rain to wash it in and warm temperatures to encourage growth

JanuarySnowstor · 22-06-2019 4:40pm

The Ironman competition in youghal tomorrow looks like a complete washout. So much so it could even be called off!! Rain looks persistent and heavy throughout

squarecircles · 22-06-2019 4:48pm

my oh my.

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squarecircles · 22-06-2019 4:50pm

JCX BXC · 22-06-2019 4:55pm

The persistence of the ECM and ICON in regards to this spell is quite impressive.

Danno · 22-06-2019 5:31pm

ECM has the 20c 850hPa over Laois next Friday. If it materialises, that could put the 33.3c record in danger of being beaten.

aisling86 · 22-06-2019 5:42pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The Ironman competition in youghal tomorrow looks like a complete washout. So much so it could even be called off!! Rain looks persistent and heavy throughout

What a disaster for them, during the week I heard they may have to shorten the swim due to low water temps.

JanuarySnowstor · 22-06-2019 5:47pm

Cork added to the rainfall warning now as well as a thundery shower warning for leinster. Why not just say South and East like these county by county warnings are so ridiculous

Gonzo · 22-06-2019 5:52pm

tomorrow looks like a cool washout in most places. Today has probably been one of the warmest days of the year so far with temperatures reaching close to 19C and plenty of sunshine.

I'm still unsure about next week in how warm it will get, could be very dependent on cloud cover and rain as well as onshore breezes. At a wild guess most places should see 18 to 23C next week, possibly hotter in spells of sunshine, especially across the midlands and mid-west where temperatures of 25 or 26C is possible. East coast likely to be cooler, especially if there is rain, cloud or sea fog.

Oscar Bravo · 22-06-2019 5:53pm

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Cork and Waterford

Outbreaks of heavy rain during Sunday will lead to rainfall accumulations of 25 to 40mm, with the highest values in coastal areas.

Valid: Sunday 23 June 2019 06:00 to Sunday 23 June 2019 18:00

Issued: Saturday 22 June 2019 17:00

Updated: Saturday 22 June 2019 17:00

Status: YellowRainfall warning for Leinster

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Leinster

Scattered thundery downpours will push northwards later Sunday and for a time on Monday. Rainfall totals of 25-40mm are possible in some areas over a short period.

Valid: Sunday 23 June 2019 18:00 to Monday 24 June 2019 06:00

Issued: Saturday 22 June 2019 17:00

Updated: Saturday 22 June 2019 17:00

Meteorite58 · 22-06-2019 7:03pm

Could be adding Wexford to a warning as well as S Kilkenny. All along S and SE coastal counties looks like could get very heavy rainfall, most falling from early Sun morning until 01.00 Monday

JanuarySnowstor · 22-06-2019 7:24pm

ECM follows earlier ICON
Absolute belter for heat end of week!!

JanuarySnowstor · 22-06-2019 7:31pm

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2019062212/ECM0-144.GIF?22-0

Into the oven we go!!

squarecircles · 22-06-2019 7:38pm

another consistent run from the ECM.

Iv been telling people about next weeks heat,but theyre not buying it,little do they know theyll be sweating like pigs.:pac:

Kermit.de.frog · 22-06-2019 7:42pm

squarecircles · 22-06-2019 7:45pm

speechless.

SeaBreezes · 22-06-2019 7:52pm

squarecircles wrote: »

speechless.

Melting!

lawred2 · 22-06-2019 7:54pm

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Melting!

What would be normal for us to see in that graph this time of year?

mickger844posts · 22-06-2019 7:54pm

squarecircles wrote: »

speechless.

Unprecedented charts and quiet plausible with the position of the Jet and The Omega block but it wouldn’t take much to shift all this East. Still all to play for but amazing model watching ahead.

Danno · 22-06-2019 8:06pm

From: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public

Sometimes temperature at 850 hPa can be used to roughly assess the maximum temperature at sea level by adding 10 to 15oC, and for higher ground one can interpolate. However there are situations when this method does not apply, particularly in winter.

30c looks very likely, if not higher across the south. Gurteen, Durrow, Shannon, OakPark and Kilkenny could challenge the 33.3c

sryanbruen · 22-06-2019 8:18pm

Some of the synoptics that the ECM has shown in the past day aren't too dissimilar to those of the July 1983 heatwave to me, a very notable period of hot weather as I'm sure some will remember fondly with outbreaks of thunderstorms too particularly at Kilkenny on the 17th.

archives-1983-7-11-12-0.png?

Gonzo · 22-06-2019 8:20pm

Danno wrote: »

From: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public

30c looks very likely, if not higher across the south. Gurteen, Durrow, Shannon, OakPark and Kilkenny could challenge the 33.3c

pity this isn't mid July to mid August and sustained long sunny spells, rather than an unsettled plume in June, then I think breaking the 33C record would be a real possibility, not sure we'll beat it especially with the unsettled conditions that's forecasted, but it would be great if we did beat it, I want to see that beaten at some stage in my lifetime.

sryanbruen · 22-06-2019 8:25pm

Gonzo wrote: »

pity this isn't mid July to mid August and sustained long sunny spells, rather than an unsettled plume in June, then I think breaking the 33C record would be a real possibility, not sure we'll beat it especially with the unsettled conditions that's forecasted, but it would be great if we did beat it, I want to see that beaten at some stage in my lifetime.

Well after not going near it last June with 32.0c at Shannon (which is a debatable figure).. I don't think we will see it broken. Last June's pattern was almost perfection to beating the record like.

Mortelaro · 22-06-2019 8:28pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some of the synoptics that the ECM has shown in the past day aren't too dissimilar to those of the July 1983 heatwave to me, a very notable period of hot weather as I'm sure some will remember fondly with outbreaks of thunderstorms too particularly at Kilkenny on the 17th.

Lightning struck a milking parlour next door to us near Arklow in one of those storms killing 2 cows and stunning another
Quite severe
I remember bringing in the cows on a Sunday morning as that particular storm was approaching, it was booming for a a long time to the SE
When it eventually came in overhead it lasted a long time and was vicious
We lost power during milking and let the cows out because bunched up in the collecting yard was just too dangerous

The Specialist · 22-06-2019 8:32pm

What are the chances of retaining the heat with some
decent sunny weather after this week lads? I have a week off from Thurs week and would love some proper summer weather to sit out in

compsys · 22-06-2019 8:39pm

squarecircles wrote: »

another consistent run from the ECM.

Iv been telling people about next weeks heat,but theyre not buying it,little do they know theyll be sweating like pigs.:pac:

It's still all to play for so I wouldn't start bragging just yet. Also, many areas won't go much above 22 or 23c IMO, which is hardly sweltering even by Irish standards - more a welcome relief after the cool summer we've had so far.

Graces7 · 22-06-2019 8:55pm

oppressive sweaty weather out here. west mayo offshore island.

Graces7 · 22-06-2019 8:58pm

email from a friend in Texas; nearly 44 and humid...

JCX BXC · 22-06-2019 9:07pm

compsys wrote: »

It's still all to play for so I wouldn't start bragging just yet. Also, many areas won't go much above 22 or 23c IMO, which is hardly sweltering even by Irish standards - more a welcome relief after the cool summer we've had so far.

Where are these many areas?

esposito · 22-06-2019 9:24pm

compsys wrote: »

It's still all to play for so I wouldn't start bragging just yet. Also, many areas won't go much above 22 or 23c IMO, which is hardly sweltering even by Irish standards - more a welcome relief after the cool summer we've had so far.

IMO the highest temperature we will see will be 28 or 29 C (most likely in the Midlands or West). But I do think many places will reach the mid 20’s by next Thursday and Friday. That’s going on the last few ECM runs.

igCorcaigh · 22-06-2019 9:35pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Lightning struck a milking parlour next door to us near Arklow in one of those storms killing 2 cows and stunning another
Quite severe
I remember bringing in the cows on a Sunday morning as that particular storm was approaching, it was booming for a a long time to the SE
When it eventually came in overhead it lasted a long time and was vicious
We lost power during milking and let the cows out because bunched up in the collecting yard was just too dangerous

I vaguely remember seeing the headlines of the newspaper the next day saying 24 cows killed whilst huddling under a tree during the lightning storm?

Getting genuinely excited now, not so much for 2018 style summer, but hoping for real convective storms!

Mrs cockett · 22-06-2019 9:39pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some of the synoptics that the ECM has shown in the past day aren't too dissimilar to those of the July 1983 heatwave to me, a very notable period of hot weather as I'm sure some will remember fondly with outbreaks of thunderstorms too particularly at Kilkenny on the 17th.

Remember it well, I was heavily pregnant and it was very draining

RobertKK · 22-06-2019 9:56pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some of the synoptics that the ECM has shown in the past day aren't too dissimilar to those of the July 1983 heatwave to me, a very notable period of hot weather as I'm sure some will remember fondly with outbreaks of thunderstorms too particularly at Kilkenny on the 17th.

I remember that, my parents were taking us along with a neighbour to mass, and the neighbour was terrified of the lightning. It was a pretty bad (good) storm.

jimmynokia · 22-06-2019 10:19pm

Mortelaro wrote:

Lightning struck a milking parlour next door to us near Arklow in one of those storms killing 2 cows and stunning another Quite severe I remember bringing in the cows on a Sunday morning as that particular storm was approaching, it was booming for a a long time to the SE When it eventually came in overhead it lasted a long time and was vicious We lost power during milking and let the cows out because bunched up in the collecting yard was just too dangerous

Lighting struck a tree before once beside the tee off when I was playing golf i was about to tee off well I dropped the club and ran...

jimmynokia · 22-06-2019 10:24pm

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1142469155511250945

Turning very warm or hot with thunderstorm potential Sun eve 23rd---->

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