Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

SleetAndSnow · 25-06-2019 5:22pm

Wonder if we will see any action in the city. Highly unlikely though I’d say

JCX BXC · 25-06-2019 5:47pm

Looks like a fairly active thunderstorm moved over Killarney and south of there!

MidMan25 · 25-06-2019 8:07pm

Heavy heavy rain in Castlegregory, Co. Kerry. Thunder and lightning imminent it seems.

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 10:18pm

Kerry and cork getting the Thunder and lightning today, big heavy showers reported around the county, just got side swiped here early evening with just 0.4mm recorded . A Lot of lightning around Killarney and torrential rain late afternoon.

SlowBlowin · 25-06-2019 10:26pm

Lots of heavy rain and rumbling most of the afternoon, I only saw cloud to cloud no ground strikes.

600 FT asl - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 10:31pm

Possibly have some severe thunderstorms off the SW coast late Weds night early Thursday morning continuing into the afternoon. Watching to see if some heavy rain / thunderstorms might drift up along the coasts. Could be spectacular looking out to sea during the dark hours if it comes to be.

pad199207 · 25-06-2019 10:41pm

Anymore northward nudges and southern areas could be in business

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 10:44pm

Fri again in the SW has interest for thunderstorm potential as the front dissipates . ECM currently( and for the last few days ) showing tons of CAPE available ( mad amount !!! ) with a very warm moist air mass moving over the heat of the day could lead to some hefty thunderstorms if they form overland. If , If .....

SlowBlowin · 25-06-2019 10:52pm

I hate being in the house during lightening (house has been struck several times) I think if this kicks off I will blow the dust off the wife's camera and go down to Derrynane and try and get some pictures.

600 FT asl - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

pad199207 · 25-06-2019 10:54pm

Perhaps a Kerry Clipper early Thursday morning

JanuarySnowstor · 25-06-2019 10:58pm

Problem is (going by gfs) anyway all the runs over the last 48hours keep the storms well off shore on Thursday. You would think high cloud and very humid is the only call

Meteorite58 · 25-06-2019 11:24pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Problem is (going by gfs) anyway all the runs over the last 48hours keep the storms well off shore on Thursday. You would think high cloud and very humid is the only call

ECM has been nudging the storms a bit closer to Ireland over the last few runs, their thunderstorm predictive charts showing thunderstorms clipping the coast Thurs ( Kerry clipper:pac: ) and showing storms developing in Kerry / W Cork overland from late morning early afternoon on Fri, even showing some severe thunderstorms ???

Thinking if that weak cold front moves in over the SW early Fri than with the lift from the mountains, temperature, convergence, loads of Deep Layer Shear, the moisture ... BANG !

Bit early to be posting convective charts for Friday but worth a close eye to see how it develops, don't see charts like these everyday that's for sure.

Fun guessing anyway!

Meteorite58 · 26-06-2019 12:14am

Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019

ISSUED 20:41 UTC Tue 25 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridge will expand across western Europe on Wednesday, while an upper vortex pivots westwards to the west of Biscay. The net result is advection of a high Theta-W airmass from France, across the Channel Islands and out to the Celtic Sea. Weak impulses running northwards from the English Channel into southern England may produce some showery bursts of rain from high-based elevated convection during Wednesday daytime. Lightning risk is considered quite low.

By late afternoon into the evening, an environment with very steep lapse rates and significant CAPE (1,500 - 2,000 J/kg) will evolve across the Celtic Sea, engaging with the left exit of a strong southerly jet to the west of Biscay. Model guidance is in reasonable agreement for a cluster of potentially very active elevated thunderstorms to develop during this timeframe, expanding in coverage as they drift west-northwestwards on the leading edge of this instability plume over open waters to the south of Ireland. Depending on the exact track, these may pass close to SW Ireland on Wednesday night - and upgrades may be required if trends suggest a heightened chance of reaching SW Ireland, especially late in the night.

Storm 10 · 26-06-2019 12:00pm

Yesterdays Thunderstorm in Killarney, now if this happened in Dublin the forum would have gone into overdrive.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/sudden-thunderstorm-causes-flooding-in-killarney-933070.html

26-06-2019 1:32pm

Lol you’d swear we never saw heavy rain before !

26-06-2019 1:33pm

Check out sat24 enable lightning and see what’s brewing from biscay .

Looks like it just might hit the south and south west but entirely miss the rest of us.

aisling86 · 26-06-2019 1:41pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Check out sat24 enable lightning and see what’s brewing from biscay .

Looks like it just might hit the south and south west but entirely miss the rest of us.

I can't see it making land at all, would be impressive if it did tho.

26-06-2019 1:44pm

aisling86 wrote: »

I can't see it making land at all, would be impressive if it did tho.

I'd say there's a pretty good chance for the South West looking at it again.

This is interesting because it's weather coming from Biscay direction I have not seen in a long long time. Hopefully by the end of the Summer we'll get a good proper Thunderstorm or two, one to remember lol.

26-06-2019 1:48pm

In actual fact I wouldn't rule out anything for the South East or East for later too as I see some of the cloud from that storm move this way. Nothing nearly as active but could have the potential.

One thing I remember about proper Thunderstorms before big one hit was that some clouds were moving in different directions, that always puzzled me, might be another sign to watch out for.

DOCARCH · 26-06-2019 4:12pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Yesterdays Thunderstorm in Killarney, now if this happened in Dublin the forum would have gone into overdrive.

And? What's your point?

Killarney - population approx. 14,500

Dublin - population approx. 1,173,000

Statistically/likely to be more Boards.ie members in Dublin reporting it?

dashoonage · 26-06-2019 4:37pm

I dont think they even have internet in Killarney

Oneiric 3 · 26-06-2019 5:31pm

I'm increasingly off the mind that this forum should be split. One for Dublin/Meath/Kildare and that sort of over-represented area, and another for the rest of us. For example, a fine, warm day for most of the country today, yet you'd swear the next ice age had arrived going by the majority of the comments on the summer threads, simply because there was a small patch of cloud hugging the Dublin/Meath coast.

squarecircles · 26-06-2019 5:39pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm increasingly off the mind that this forum should be split. One for Dublin/Meath/Kildare and that sort of over-represented area, and another for the rest of us. For example, a fine, warm day for most of the country today, yet you'd swear the next ice age had arrived going by the majority of the comments on the summer threads, simply because there was a small patch of cloud hugging the Dublin/Meath coast.

Happens most times countrywide fine weather is forecast and if it fails to materialise exactly the thread descends into petulance and sourness. My objective personally is to drive it home how beautiful the weather is in my region as a counter balance to the miserable narrative that trys to skew and distort the fine spell in general.

Rock Lesnar · 26-06-2019 5:40pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm increasingly off the mind that this forum should be split. One for Dublin/Meath/Kildare and that sort of over-represented area, and another for the rest of us. For example, a fine, warm day for most of the country today, yet you'd swear the next ice age had arrived going by the majority of the comments on the summer threads, simply because there was a small patch of cloud hugging the Dublin/Meath coast.

Im in meath and its been fantastic day

aidanodr · 26-06-2019 5:42pm

It would appear the further inland you are the less you are lumbered with cloud versus the coastal areas? Cork area ( Coastal ) for last week or more inc today and looking like for the coming week is going to be mainly Cloud.

highdef · 26-06-2019 7:00pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm increasingly off the mind that this forum should be split. One for Dublin/Meath/Kildare and that sort of over-represented area, and another for the rest of us. For example, a fine, warm day for most of the country today, yet you'd swear the next ice age had arrived going by the majority of the comments on the summer threads, simply because there was a small patch of cloud hugging the Dublin/Meath coast.

completely clear at home in North Kildare, near the meath border, since late morning.

ZX7R · 26-06-2019 7:24pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I'm increasingly off the mind that this forum should be split. One for Dublin/Meath/Kildare and that sort of over-represented area, and another for the rest of us. For example, a fine, warm day for most of the country today, yet you'd swear the next ice age had arrived going by the majority of the comments on the summer threads, simply because there was a small patch of cloud hugging the Dublin/Meath coast.

Why, if more people reported on that storm yesterday there would have been more chat about it.
Splitting the treads was tried before it didn't work

Reckless Abandonment · 26-06-2019 7:35pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Why, if more people reported on that storm yesterday there would have been more chat about it.
Splitting the treads was tried before it didn't work

100%. This is purley down to population. I was jealous I wasn't down there to see it. To be honest the most interesting weather is nearly always down that way. Except snow, Dublin owns snow

Storm 10 · 26-06-2019 7:59pm

Lightning to the South appears to be dying out now not as active as it was

Meteorite58 · 26-06-2019 8:27pm

Update from convectiveweather

Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 27 Jun 2019

ISSUED 18:23 UTC Wed 26 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

UPDATE 18:22 UTC Latest data suggests the risk of elevated thunderstorms affecting parts of SW Ireland later tonight has increased - as such a SLGT has been introduced. First wave of thunderstorms currently ongoing over the Celtic Sea is expected to pass to the south and/or weaken on approach, but the main interest is with a second round of elevated thunderstorms that will likely develop later this evening - perhaps also close to the Scilly Isles - and will then head northwest towards Munster later in the night. Though it must be stressed the majority of activity will likely stay just offshore to the south

Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : 2019 and Winter 2020

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