June 2021 Boards weather forecast contest

Yes I did mention that 9.5 was the min required to count a day, so that's two now, we narrowly missed a third day that got to 8.4 hours earlier this month.

Here's the update on all the variables ...

IMT is now 13.9 C after a third week that averaged 12.8 C, 1.2 below normal. The rest of the month looks rather cool at times so would imagine the final result will be similar to where we are now.

MAX remains 25.6 C -- could hold to the end.

MIN was 1.8 C, waiting to see if that changes as Mountdillon had several hours at 2 C last night.

PRC has actually dropped slightly to 40% after the third week managed an average of only 34%. That is probably the low point as some slightly higher percentages seem likely but enough to pass 65% (our minimum forecast from Kindred Spirit)? Not too sure about that. With normal rainfall 22nd to 30th, the 40% increases to 55%, with 150% normal it comes out at 68%.

SUN has improved to 87% with the third week at 116.7% (700/600). That probably won't change a lot either.

For the BONUS, a bit more optimistic now that our range will be served by the outcome, we're now at 2 days (the 16th had the most so far), and could limp in with 3 or 4, would not be surprised if one of those additional days goes past the 10.2h max so far.

You have to wonder how it can get so cold on such a short night.

Looks fairly promising for a few more sunny days at Belmullet at any rate, will probably be touch and go each day now, so the total could be anywhere from the current 2 to 7, thinking it almost inevitable that one of these five days will exceed the previous max of 10.2 hours. Not that much rain fell over the contest grid (or the country) and models almost bone dry to end of month, looks like a finish not far from 50% there.

I did a study over on net-weather of what often happens after a June like this one which sees a drop from first to second half in temperature, and with British data the tendency seems to be that it rebounds gradually through July into August with the second peak more likely to be in August than July. That would probably hold true for Irish data also. Would not be looking for July to be all that warm a month and the current model output seems to say near average first week and rather cool second week.

These are just tendencies and not ironclad rules. A few of the sample group (30 of 250 have seen a drop of at least 1.0 C from first half to second half averages) did have a warmer July than August, but more had a peak in August, about half the set had the usual similar averages. There also wasn't much of an indication of unusual warmth later in the summer, almost none of the best summers fall into this set (sometimes with a smaller drop, a hot summer followed).

Add a fourth sunny day now as Sunday had 10.7 hours. (Sat 26th the max now)

Confirmed scoring for June 2021


Most outcomes are now known, the IMT was 13.8 after 29th and looking at the hourlies today I estimate it will finish 13.9 (edit _ it held at 13.8). MAX 25.6, MIN 1.3, PRC 45%, SUN est 95% (lots of sun yesterday and today), and four days 9.5h+ at Belmalin Head, the max on 26th of 12.7h (second highest 27th, no guesses for that date so no issue about it qualifying for second place superbonus). As 16th was third and also separated as mentioned, could shift the one point additional there, but no exact hits on that date either. Superbonus of two then to Artane2002 (26th) and MTC (guessed one day off the peak 25th). No guesses for 27th.


FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN _ days_max h (sb) _ TOTAL


DOCARCH ______________ 21 _ 20 _ 15 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 04 05 ____ 80

John mac _______________25 _ 17 _ 14 _ 03*_ 08 ___ 02 04 ____ 73


____ NormaL ____________23 _ 13 _ 13 _ 05*_ 09 ___ 05 05 ____ 73


Bsal ___________________ 24 _ 06 _ 15 _ 13*_ 08 ___ 03 01 ____ 70

waterways ______________ 23 _ 01 _ 19 _ 07*_ 08 ___ 05 05 ____ 68

Sunflower3 ______________19 _ 17 _ 07 _ 09*_ 07 ___ 02 05 ____ 66

M.T. Cranium ____________23 _ 07 _ 19 _ 03*_ 07 ___ 03 02 (1)__65

200motels ______________ 17 _ 18 _ 09 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 04 04 ____ 63

sryanbruen ______________18 _ 08 _ 12 _ 05*_ 07 ___ 04 03 ____ 57

Esposito ________________ 24 _ 13 _ 02 _ 13*_ 03 ___ 01 01 ____ 57

Dasa29 _________________18 _ 06 _ 13 _ 13*_ 03 ___ 00 03 ____ 56

MrSkinner ______________ 21 _ 03 _ 11 _ 01*_ 09 ___ 03 05 ____ 53

Appledrop _______________15 _ 07 _ 13 _ 09*_ 06 ___ 00 03 ____ 53

SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____21 _ 01 _ 09 _ 07*_ 07 ___ 05 03 _53-3=50

Tae laidir _______________ 18 _ 01 _ 09 _ 03*_ 08 ___ 05 05 ____ 49


___ Con Sensus __________18 _ 03 _ 10 _ 06*_ 07 ___ 02 03 ____ 49


Joe Public _______________19 _ 00 _ 15 _ 06*_ 05 ___ 01 02 ____ 48

Kindred Spirit ____________13 _ 01 _ 13 _ 15*_ 01 ___ 01 04 ____ 48

Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 19 _ 03 _ 12 _ 04*_ 07 ___ 01 01 _47-1=46

WesternStorm ___________ 13 _ 00 _ 13 _ 11*_ 05 ___ 01 01 ____ 44

Pauldry _________________18 _ 07 _ 00 _ 05*_ 06 ___ 04 03 ____ 43

Artane2002 _____________ 17 _ 04 _ 06 _ 01*_ 07 ___ 05 01 (2)__43

CirrusBusiness ___________20 _ 05 _ 00 _ 11*_ 04 ___ 00 02 ____ 42

Jpmarn _________________17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 03*_ 07 ___ 02 02 ____ 40

Dacogawa _______________17 _ 01 _ 08 _ 06*_ 04 ___ 03 01 ____ 40

Gonzo _________ (-2) ____ 16 _ 02 _ 05 _ 03*_ 06 ___ 05 04 _41-2=39

Mr Stonewall ____________ 17 _ 00 _ 02 _ 12*_ 06 ___ 00 01 ____ 38

Adam240610 ____________ 14 _ 00 _ 10 _ 14*_ 01 ___ 01 01 ____ 31

---

Notes: MAX had a number of low and zero scores, the field was boosted by two points and one point range extended. PRC scored by minimum progression.

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ BONUS


WesternStorm ____________15.0 _ 29.0 _ 2.0 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (15th)

Kindred Spirit ____________ 15.0 _ 28.0 _ 2.0 _ 065 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 14.5 h (28th)

Adam240610 _____________14.9 _ 28.7 _ 2.3 _ 070 _ 140 ___ 8 d, 16.1 h (24th)

Appledrop _______________ 14.8 _ 27.1 _ 2.0 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 15.3 h (13th)

Gonzo _________ (-2) _____14.7 _ 27.6 _ 2.8 _ 105 _ 116 ___ 4 d, 14.5 h (14th)

Mr Stonewall _____________14.6 _ 28.6 _ 3.1 _ 081 _ 115 ___ 9 d, 16.2 h (10th)

Jpmarn _________________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 15.5 h (14th)

Dacogawa _______________ 14.6 _ 27.8 _ 2.5 _ 096 _ 124 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (15th)

Artane2002 ______________14.6 _ 27.4 _ 2.7 _ 110 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 15.0 h (26th)

200motels _______________14.6 _ 26.0 _ 2.4 _ 101 _ 111 ___ 5 d, 14.3 h (21st)

Tae laidir ________________14.5 _ 28.0 _ 2.4 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 12.3 h (13th)

Pauldry _________________ 14.5 _ 27.1 _ 3.7 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 5 d, 15.0 h (30th)

sryanbruen ______________ 14.5 _ 27.0 _ 2.1 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 5 d, 15.1 h (22nd)


___ Con Sensus __________ 14.5 _ 27.5 _ 2.3 _ 096 _ 111 __ 6.5 d, 15.0 h (19th)


Dasa29 _________________ 14.5 _ 24.0 _ 2.0 _ 080 _ 130 ___12 d, 15.0 h (24th)

Joe Public _______________ 14.4 _ 28.8 _ 1.8 _ 099 _ 120 ___ 8 d, 16.4 h (14th)

Sunflower3 ______________ 14.4 _ 25.1 _ 2.6 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 7 d, 12.0 h (18th)

CirrusBusiness ____________14.3 _ 27.3 _ 3.6 _ 085 _ 125 ___ 9 d, 15.4 h (14th)

SleetAndSnow ___ (-3) ____ 14.2 _ 27.8 _ 2.4 _ 095 _ 110 ___ 4 d, 14.8 h (17th)

MrSkinner _______________14.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.2 _ 111 _ 091 ___ 6 d, 12.0 h (15th)

waterways ______________ 14.0 _ 27.9 _ 1.4 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 4 d, 13.3 h (24th)

M.T. Cranium ____________ 14.0 _ 27.1 _ 1.4 _ 105 _ 110 ___ 6 d, 15.5 h (25th)

Bsal ___________________ 13.9 _ 27.0 _ 1.8 _ 080 _ 105 ___ 6 d, 16.0 h (23rd)

Esposito ________________ 13.9 _ 26.5 _ 3.1 _ 080 _ 132 ___ 8 d, 16.2 h (22nd)

John mac _______________ 13.8 _ 26.1 _ 1.9 _ 105 _ 103 ___ 7 d, 14.5 h (29th)


____ NormaL ____________13.6 _ 26.5 _ 2.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 4 d, 13.0 h ( -- )


DOCARCH _______________13.4 _ 25.8 _ 1.8 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 3 d, 12.8 h (18th)

Eon1208 _______ (-1) ____ 13.2 _ 27.5 _ 2.1 _ 103 _ 109 ___ 8 d, 16.0 h (28th)

---

Will confirm the IMT tomorrow and then check other numbers against the MS on Friday 2nd. Don't expect any significant changes to this, so congrats to DOCARCH, John Mac and NormaL, also Bsal.

Looks as though the annual table will tighten up as a result of this month, the best 6 of 7 totals will be taking some other month for quite a few, so you won't lose as much ground as you might expect in that category (some of our annual contest leaders don't have scores as low as they just posted, so will be adding on the former lowest score and not this one). That "best of" goes to 7 of 8 in August but then 7 of 9 in September as we approach the final stages.

I checked the IMT, it stalled at 13.84 so that will be adjusted, also the SUN was more generous on 30th than I thought from the first go round, so I will score that from 95% (which I think benefits almost everyone). Will check it all tomorrow and post the annual updates.

Scoring is now confirmed. The temperature extremes were verified and SUN worked out to 925 hours (an average of 154) compared to the normal value of 161 (from daily average 5.35). That is very close to 95%. Belmullet held the average down, the other five locations were all a little above normal, but Belmullet was barely half of their average.

Some time later I will update the category totals.