Storm Jorge : February 29th

DOCARCH wrote: »

My Netatmo app is giving max gust of 119 km/h for Dublin tomorrow. We'll see...

Oh ya may bring in that weather station so

Kutebride wrote: »

NE Galway

You'll be grand then. Winds will be nothing like they would be along the extreme coastal margins, which is really what this red county wide warning is referring too. We just get lumped in for reasons that are beyond my understanding.

George Lee on RTE saying red for Galway and Mayo

Agree with all who mention the need to apply the red alert to portions of the affected counties, but be aware that since this storm seems intent on waiting until closer approach to unleash its maximum winds, those might make a better inland penetration from Galway Bay, you'll be the best judge of the potential for a direct hit of strong winds there to reach your location inland. I realize there's some considerable topography to the west of north Galway but not much in the way between Galway city and Roscommon, which is why earlier I was speculating that they might extend the severe warnings to Roscommon (southern half at least).

So now with this red alert in place, obviously it won't just magically trend from red to orange at the exact location where county boundaries meet the ocean, although with the Galway-Mayo distinction most of the guidance seems to be showing the blast of strong winds very much cut off just to the north of Westport until a later phase when the storm begins to pull the circulation back north (in a somewhat weakened state) with perhaps a secondary maximum of strong wind gusts for the evening around Mayo, Sligo and Donegal.

If it had been my call I would have included Kerry, too close to call on leaving them orange and I feel that red could verify around Dingle peninsula and Ballybunion. So a few parts of Limerick might feel it too.

As to not reaching red alert levels inland, here again, be cautious as this could be far enough into coastal red range that inland extensions will be considerable. This might not be just your Mace Head 1 km/hr into red but more like all-out 90 knot peak gusts there, so usually for every increase of 1% at the coast there's a similar increase further inland, it would extend the reach of damaging wind gusts to any well exposed locations within 30-50 km of the coast.

That one model (FMI-Hirlam I think) showing an earlier depiction of a track into Mayo and more southerly impacts -- I think that was a case of GIGO at work. Not sure what got into that model but you can clearly see from both current satellite imagery and model consensus that the track will take the low past Belmullet into Donegal Bay and if it ever hits land in Ireland it would likely be Inishowen.

One prediction that I feel very confident about is that I will not be sleeping again until about 2300h Saturday, so put the coffee on ...

Graces7, a thought for you, I know you aren't keen on being too specific about location but with this very sharp cutoff depicted where one side of Westport could see hurricane force gusts and the other side just moderate winds most of the day until later seeing the leftovers, your exact location will determine perhaps whether you're in for a hammering, so let us know at least in cryptic terms whether you're north, west or south of Westport, it will help us understand the context of your reports if you happen to be near that cut-off. Somebody somewhere will be right on the line and could have some very interesting oscillations from severe gusts to calm and back.

catrat12 wrote: »

I live in high in the Dublin mountains and most evenings would merit a yellow warning, good luck to all in the west tomorrow keep safe

Also anyone know if snow potential with the storm my app keeps popping up snow

High ground in the Dublin/Wicklow mountains should see snow tomorrow afternoon. I'd say accumulating nicely anywhere over about 300m with a wetter messy mix lower down.

As to timing, lots of questions asked on that subject ...

The very strong winds will start to appear in west Munster around daybreak, peaking anywhere south of Clifden by about noon to 3 p.m., but quite strong as early as 0900h. From Clifden to Newport, it's a nowcast situation as some models show that stretch protected by the slack inner core gradients until afternoon, others have oscillating blasts of strong and not as strong winds. From Newport around to Donegal, would say after an early peak then a longish interval of nothing much happening, where is the storm? then it eventually does hit in somewhat reduced form at first, by late afternoon or evening, and ramps back up a notch by late evening.

Timing inland depends on where inland, but into south Galway and Roscommon, peak also around noon to 3 p.m.

South coast is going to have a longer and flatter signal, strongish gusts possible all the time after the cold front goes through tonight.

Andrew00 wrote: »

I heard today that you're not insured if you drive in Red Warning weather....

Is this true

That would make driving in Red warning weather illegal, which is bizzare altogether.

Latest WV satellite image. Beginning to take shape:



from the Icelandic Met Office.

Although it is going to be unpleasantly wet at times, it does look at this stage that actual rainfall totals over this weekend won't be a huge issue. Won't help those already flooded regions for sure, but modest totals like this would be unlikely to add further problems to any significant degree.

Forecast totals for between now and Monday morning:

Living in Ballinasloe which is in Galway, would I be better off heeding the Roscommon Orange warning or the Galway red? I reckon I'm far enough inland to treat it as orange.

Jorge at 6 pm.

flazio wrote: »

Living in Ballinasloe which is in Galway, would I be better off heeding the Roscommon Orange warning or the Galway red? I reckon I'm far enough inland to treat it as orange.

Reddish orange

flazio wrote: »

Living in Ballinasloe which is in Galway, would I be better off heeding the Roscommon Orange warning or the Galway red? I reckon I'm far enough inland to treat it as orange.

Vermillion warning I'd say.

Latest 15z Icon keeps the centre North West of Donegal. Galway bay or cliffden could have some record breaking gusts if this verifies. Severe gusts penetrating inland areas, even Dublin exposed areas could get gusts of an excess of 120kmph. This could be one to remember!!

Daz_ wrote: »

Does anyone find all the ME warnings totally confusing at this stage ? There is an red and orange warning for Galway for example . For different time frames . Hard to get a handle on when each warning is for !

The red warning is only for roughly 3 hours or so! Then it goes back to orange. Nothing confusing there

Edit must learn to read every word and not just scan post

Rain started in Sth Galway. Roll on 6am
Thanks to the regulars again for brilliant updates and answers to silly questions.

It's kinda weird that a country as small as Ireland gets so many different warnings. All calm here, but Jim next door has a red warning.