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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021
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31-05-2021 12:24am#1Wednesday ECM is looking interesting for some fairly widely scattered elevated thunderstorms, with a high-Theta-E tongue moving up over the country during the late afternoon hours. K-Indices of 32-34 suggest a 70-80% probability, though soundings suggest that it won't be surface-based.
% probability = 4 x (KI -15)
Post edited by DOCARCH on9
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Yeah nothing clear about tomorrow but it would seem that possibilities of Thunderstorm activity beginning off the SE coast, possibly some moving inland and looks like moving up along the Irish sea during Weds, how close to the coast or if they move inland remains to be seen. Nice bit of LLS and DLS showing up in the SE earlier tomorrow as the trough moves up over the country , most instability seems to be in the SE initially but will this grow the storms to mature further up the coast or inland a bit ? Lapse rates not great so not sure if much will happen ?
Tomorrow evening / night into early Thurs morning off the SW might become active, possibly only off the coast but will see if any stray close to the coast. Shear is in abundance and Lapse rates are very good but again might just stay over the sea. Will be keeping an eye to see if Orographic lift has an influence in Kerry tomorrow night.
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I'd be a little more confident but not by much. There'll probably be a bit of a shadow through Wicklow which didn't work out so well last time up wind. Inland southeast and hugging Irish sea coasts are the best bet.
No active thunderstorm activity at the moment between north west France and the south coast.
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Yeah very little convective activity even in the UK. Still a chance of some activity off the SW tonight and early morning and possibly up along the coasts. Lapse rates are best here with good deep layer shear and a pronounced convergence zone with high K index readings. ECM showing the far NW with possibility of some thunderstorms also in the early morning. Tomorrow up along the W, maybe Kerry also showing the highest chance of some convective activity with Thunderstorm's possible if somewhat a low chance.
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Not many sferics overnight and what there was stayed well off the coast, none in the NW as far as I know , fair amount of activity up along the W today.
Missed all the rain here near Tralee today apart from 0.2mm, some sunny breaks but quite cloudy, could see some nice towers in the distance.
ECM captured it fairly well today, had the parameters well aligned that matched the track of the storms. Colder uppers over the Western half of the country, LLS and very decent DLS especially along the W coast , converging winds, decent lapse rates and reached decent 2m temps as the weather moved up the W.
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Unusual for the UK Met to put out a specific video like this. Something big must be going down for the southern UK:
Would say it is highly unlikely at this stage, but maybe still a chance of a few of these storms scraping the SE coast here?New Moon
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Unusual for the UK Met to put out a specific video like this. Something big must be going down for the southern UK:
Would say it is highly unlikely at this stage, but maybe still a chance of a few of these storms scraping the SE coast here?
Looks like some major thunderstorms for wednesday thursday coming up from france. Sunday and monday could be the same. No such luck here.0 -
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