Property Market 2020

24-01-2020 12:49pm

Graham wrote: »

Interesting article in the IT today where 'leading property' experts give their opinions for fixing the property market:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/housing-crisis-seven-solutions-to-ireland-s-biggest-problem-1.4146872
Overhaul property tax

Reduce building costs

Political stability

Streamline bureaucracy and regulation

Increase supply of affordable homes

Remove PRSI and USC from rental income

The build-to-rent sector is key

Can anyone see any of these actually happening, and if they do will they have any effect on the property market this year?

seven vested interest mouthpieces, all very careful to suggest items that either line their own pockets or further their own agenda

not a single one of those solutions speaks to me, as a dublin renter looking at the choice between staying renting (overpriced), buying in a commuter town and giving up twenty hours a week to getting to work (still overpriced) or buying a kip in dublin (hugely overpriced)

not a single one of these solutions would strike at the heart of the problem- housing stock in Ireland- yep, even the stuff people are currently up to their necks in debt for, the stuff that is serving as pensions and investments and nest eggs and something to hand over to the kids when i rattle- is hideously overinflated.

the irish times is as committed as the govt and the nice rump of homeowners and investors and the entire banking system to keeping the price of current stock stable and/or rising.

and nothing will be resolved while the solutions are limited to simply "get new buyers in, quick- shore it up!"

it's a farce, scam and cartel all in one.

Graham · 24-01-2020 12:51pm

I can't see building costs reducing much anytime soon but taxation could definitely be used as a carrot/stick to steer the market.

awec · 24-01-2020 12:51pm

Deleted User wrote: »

seven vested interest mouthpieces, all very careful to suggest items that either line their own pockets or further their own agenda

not a single one of those solutions speaks to me, as a dublin renter looking at the choice between staying renting (overpriced), buying in a commuter town and giving up twenty hours a week to getting to work (still overpriced) or buying a kip in dublin (hugely overpriced)

not a single one of these solutions would strike at the heart of the problem- housing stock in Ireland- yep, even the stuff people are currently up to their necks in debt for, the stuff that is serving as pensions and investments and nest eggs and something to hand over to the kids when i rattle- is hideously overinflated.

the irish times is as committed as the govt and the nice rump of homeowners and investors and the entire banking system to keeping the price of current stock stable and/or rising.

and nothing will be resolved while the solutions are limited to simply "get new buyers in, quick- shore it up!"

it's a farce, scam and cartel all in one.

What would you suggest?

Cuddlesworth · 24-01-2020 1:07pm

awec wrote: »

What would you suggest?

Personally, touch nothing right now except the initial process of starting to build.

Streamline the planning process further, pull all power away from local politicians. Take a look at zoning too, same issue there.

Its nuts to me that even in towns down the country, where they are crying out for housing and there is next to nothing for sale or rent, the process is basically to pay stupid money for a small field near a village or road facing and hit up your local councillor with a brown paper bag to get it rezoned or cry local needs and build another once off in the arsehole of nowhere.

24-01-2020 1:16pm

awec wrote: »

What would you suggest?

nothing simple or easy obviously , but as opposed to the suggestions of putting more money into the hands of buyers, or lowering building standards, or removing bureaucracy for affordable housing:

govt focus on:

hate to use the term, but for the sake of brevity- decentralisation, as a first-order priority. jobs have to move out of dublin. feel like civil service must (and frankly, could) lead, but IDA and tax deals have to start flexing some muscle to deny/coax as required to get more tech/services firms into regions

isolate the realpolitik factors preventing high-rise development in dublin (or eg delays in process to same) and eradicate them.

public transport investment for those jobs that remain in our one major city

begin to separate the investment aspect of property from the housing requirement aspect. i cant say i have any short thoughts on this tbh, but its critical to how deep the problem runs.

direct govt mortgage service (local authorities used to offer this but i dont believe its a focus, possibly not even an option any longer? been a while since my housing days, this wasnt my area!)

massive vacancy/non-development taxes. and a fair whack in nppr tax increase.

if we are in a housing crisis, and if housing is a right, then govt needs to get brave about it.

awec · 24-01-2020 1:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

nothing simple or easy obviously , but as opposed to the suggestions of putting more money into the hands of buyers, or lowering building standards, or removing bureaucracy for affordable housing:

govt focus on:

hate to use the term, but for the sake of brevity- decentralisation, as a first-order priority. jobs have to move out of dublin. feel like civil service must (and frankly, could) lead, but IDA and tax deals have to start flexing some muscle to deny/coax as required to get more tech/services firms into regions

isolate the realpolitik factors preventing high-rise development in dublin (or eg delays in process to same) and eradicate them.

public transport investment for those jobs that remain in our one major city

begin to separate the investment aspect of property from the housing requirement aspect. i cant say i have any short thoughts on this tbh, but its critical to how deep the problem runs.

direct govt mortgage service (local authorities used to offer this but i dont believe its a focus, possibly not even an option any longer? been a while since my housing days, this wasnt my area!)

massive vacancy/non-development taxes. and a fair whack in nppr tax increase.

if we are in a housing crisis, and if housing is a right, then govt needs to get brave about it.

You won't get the tech companies out of Dublin. Not even with tax breaks or grants.

Maybe other sectors would be more amenable, but I believe the government already tried this in the past with the IDA grants and they weren't interested. They'd rather give up a grant and setup in Dublin than take the grant and go elsehwere.

Agree about civil servants though, no reason why every government department needs to be in Dublin, but the public unions would never allow jobs to move.

But I agree on vacancy taxes. Agree on high-rises and higher density in Dublin too.

24-01-2020 1:31pm

yep nothing simple or easy, and few votewinners!

Balf · 24-01-2020 1:43pm

awec wrote: »

Agree about civil servants though, no reason why every government department needs to be in Dublin, but the public unions would never allow jobs to move.

? Very significant amounts of civil servants have already been moved out of Dublin. It's more that there isn't much scope to move more of them out.

There's provincial towns with higher concentrations of public servants that the national capital.

This article is from a while ago, but the reality it describes is current.

https://irelandafternama.wordpress.com/2009/12/09/public-sector-pay-cuts-the-hidden-geographies/

Castlebar, Portlaoise, Sligo, Mullingar, Kilkenny, Letterkenny. These six towns have most to fear from the public sector pay cuts just announced by Brian Lenihan. The reason? The proportion of workers employed in the public sector – around 40% in each of these towns.

awec · 24-01-2020 1:49pm

Balf wrote: »

? Very significant amounts of civil servants have already been moved out of Dublin. It's more that there isn't much scope to move more of them out.

There's provincial towns with higher concentrations of public servants that the national capital.

This article is from a while ago, but the reality it describes is current.

Think you're misunderstanding my point.

I am not talking about concentration, or the percentage of workforce that work in the public sector. Of course there are provincial towns with higher concentrations of public servants, they have smaller populations, so large employers like the public sector are going to obviously make up a significant percentage of their workforce if they are located there.

Letterkenny is 40% public sector for example, because there's hardly anything else in Letterkenny.

My point was every government department has a very significant presence in Dublin. In reality, there's no real need for this, but changing it would be very difficult.

thegetawaycar · 24-01-2020 2:57pm

Any medium sized town should be getting housing/apartments built close to the main streets. This means more schools, creches, grocers etc... become necessary and open and public transport can be invested in.

All our towns are dying on their knees as everyone commutes to Dublin, a way to encourage regeneration of these towns is by making them higher density with effective public transport and a long term view of encouraging the Dublin based MNCs to open new investment in smaller towns to supplement their Dublin base.

Dublin is a sprawling mess and as has been mentioned already, a lot of the multinationals have no interest in leaving Dublin. Dublin city needs more high rise and it should be priority to have only apartment build in the city centre going forward.

Assetbacked · 24-01-2020 3:05pm

Reducing taxes on private individuals acting as landlords together with making it easy to remove people for non-payment of rent and we would overnight get a flood of rentals on the market. However, there is a reason why this would not happen - the institutionals are in bed with the government and have told them that in order for them to build they must be guaranteed a certain level of rental income in return. This has guided FG policy the past number of years under the guise of "not interfering with the market" and "better in the long run". It is the reason that they will do anything the lobbyists on behalf of investment funds tell them to do.

There is still a problem in general in Ireland whereby the government and the IDA think we need to be grateful for more jobs and foreign money and we should not look the gifthorse in the mouth. However, the economy is booming and is expected to continue to boom - we need to start implementing a premium for foreign investors to continue to do invest in Ireland or expand operations as we are not the sorry state we were 7 years ago. They will not pack up and leave if there is an additional cost of doing business considering the returns they are making at the moment.

Balf · 24-01-2020 3:30pm

awec wrote: »

Think you're misunderstanding my point.
<...>
My point was every government department has a very significant presence in Dublin. In reality, there's no real need for this, but changing it would be very difficult.

No, I get your point.

I think you are ignoring the fact pretty much every Department has moved staff out of Dublin, and many have a significant presence in other towns and cities.

The impractical 2003 Decentralisation programme, which wasn't completed, isn't the whole story. Many other individual decentralisation projects had already occured.

https://hr.per.gov.ie/decentralisation/

While the decentralised offices [edit: this refers only to those moved under the 2003 programme] account for less than 10% of serving civil service staff, taken together with the pre-existing regional and district offices of Departments the proportion of civil servants stationed outside Dublin is now just over 50%.

The narrative needs to change from the line you are giving - which suggests that no meaningful decentralisation has occured - to one that acknowledges very substantial moves of staff have occured.

Half of central government civil service works outside Dublin. Is there much scope to move some of the other half, still located in the capital?

That suggests quite a different mindset, doesn't it?

Balf · 24-01-2020 3:35pm

thegetawaycar wrote: »

Any medium sized town should be getting housing/apartments built close to the main streets. This means more schools, creches, grocers etc... become necessary and open and public transport can be invested in.

All our towns are dying on their knees as everyone commutes to Dublin, a way to encourage regeneration of these towns is by making them higher density with effective public transport and a long term view of encouraging the Dublin based MNCs to open new investment in smaller towns to supplement their Dublin base.

Dublin is a sprawling mess and as has been mentioned already, a lot of the multinationals have no interest in leaving Dublin. Dublin city needs more high rise and it should be priority to have only apartment build in the city centre going forward.

I'd agree, but that will bring you right slap into the discussion on one-off housing - where regional advocates just don't want to listen that the key to changing their local economies is to concentrate new housing on their existing cities and towns, and (this is the hard bit!) stop new housing being built in random fields with a bit of road frontage.

awec · 24-01-2020 3:38pm

Balf wrote: »

No, I get your point.

I think you are ignoring the fact pretty much every Department has moved staff out of Dublin, and many have a significant presence in other towns and cities.

The impractical 2003 Decentralisation programme, which wasn't completed, isn't the whole story. Many other individual decentralisation projects had already occured.The narrative needs to change from the line you are giving - which suggests that no meaningful decentralisation has occured - to one that acknowledges very substantial moves of staff have occured.

Half of central government civil service works outside Dublin. Is there much scope to move some of the other half, still located in the capital?

That suggests quite a different mindset, doesn't it?

Sure. Why not move even more?

I don't think I have suggested that they don't have a significant presence outside of Dublin, just that they all still have a significant presence in Dublin. If your stats above are accurate, then roughly 1 in every 2 civil servants in Ireland is based in Dublin. We could surely decentralise more than this, but again, it will be very difficult.

Balf · 24-01-2020 3:50pm

awec wrote: »

I don't think I have suggested that they don't have a significant presence outside of Dublin

I think you very much did, when you said

awec wrote: »

.... the public unions would never allow jobs to move.

You most certainly didn't say "I know half of all central government civil servants already work outside Dublin, and many were moved out of Dublin under the 2003 programme and many other decentralisation projects before that, but I wonder if we could move a few more."

So, with all due respect, I'm afraid I don't find it credible for you to not draw a little breath at this point, and admit that what you suggest (decentralisation) has already been done to death.

You understand, these are central government civil servants. Not teachers or health service workers, who you'd expect to be spread all over the country because of the nature of their job. All things being equal, you'd expect most of them to be in the capital. But we've half of them located elsewhere.

The decentralisation thing is just flogging a dead horse.

awec · 24-01-2020 4:00pm

Balf wrote: »

I think you very much did, when you saidYou most certainly didn't say "I know half of all central government civil servants already work outside Dublin, and many were moved out of Dublin under the 2003 programme and many other decentralisation projects before that, but I wonder if we could move a few more."

So, with all due respect, I'm afraid I don't find it credible for you to not draw a little breath at this point, and admit that what you suggest (decentralisation) has already been done to death.

You understand, these are central government civil servants. Not teachers or health service workers, who you'd expect to be spread all over the country because of the nature of their job. All things being equal, you'd expect most of them to be in the capital. But we've half of them located elsewhere.

The decentralisation thing is just flogging a dead horse.

Why?

I would expect civil servants to be wherever their office is. I don't see why your average civil servant needs to be in the capital. I don't see why we can't aim to get more of these jobs elsewhere in the country.

gourcuff · 24-01-2020 5:16pm

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

Personally, touch nothing right now except the initial process of starting to build.

Streamline the planning process further, pull all power away from local politicians. Take a look at zoning too, same issue there.

Its nuts to me that even in towns down the country, where they are crying out for housing and there is next to nothing for sale or rent, the process is basically to pay stupid money for a small field near a village or road facing and hit up your local councillor with a brown paper bag to get it rezoned or cry local needs and build another once off in the arsehole of nowhere.

Not much of that makes sense, the planning process has been massively streamlined, and the SHD process is delivering a huge number of permissions, housing supply has clearly very little to do with ease in getting planning...

land is zoned in every county, and in every town in ireland for housing, core strategies are required to demonstrate enough land plus headroom is zoned for residential development to meet population projections...

where is the arsehole of nowhere? to someone from london, new york, germany.. dublin is the arsehole of nowhere..

Balf · 24-01-2020 5:44pm

awec wrote: »

Why?

I would expect civil servants to be wherever their office is. I don't see why your average civil servant needs to be in the capital. I don't see why we can't aim to get more of these jobs elsewhere in the country.

Given that you seemed unaware that half of them are outside of the capital already, and that many have already been move, I'm not sure you've any appreciation of the issue at all.

Suffice it to say, decentralisation has already been flogged to death.

24-01-2020 5:53pm

im a civil servant based in dublin

id be of the opinion that another half the jobs in my campus could be done from anywhere in the country, be that in another centralised office, the use of hotdesk hubs or similar or through much greater utilisation of remote working facilities.

id also say that "half" above is conservative.

awec · 24-01-2020 6:10pm

Balf wrote: »

Given that you seemed unaware that half of them are outside of the capital already, and that many have already been move, I'm not sure you've any appreciation of the issue at all.

Suffice it to say, decentralisation has already been flogged to death.

You just keep repeating this over and over, without any insight. You reckon you’ll convince us if you repeat it a few more times?

Sheeps · 24-01-2020 8:21pm

Deleted User wrote: »

im a civil servant based in dublin

id be of the opinion that another half the jobs in my campus could be done from anywhere in the country, be that in another centralised office, the use of hotdesk hubs or similar or through much greater utilisation of remote working facilities.

id also say that "half" above is conservative.

I work as a consultant with a public sector body who have offices all across the country. My job could be done from anywhere in the country too.

Balf · 24-01-2020 11:58pm

awec wrote: »

You just keep repeating this over and over, without any insight. You reckon you’ll convince us if you repeat it a few more times?

?

Can I remind you that the sequence of your 'contribution' is:

"You'll never get any civil servants out of Dublin. The unions won't wear it"

"Aren't half them already outside Dublin, including about 3,000 moved out of Dublin under the McCreevy plan?"

"Em, er I mean the other half."

Fair play to your self esteem not to have bowed out at that stage. Wish I'd enough interest to stick around and see if it ever gets balanced by a sense of self awareness.

awec · 25-01-2020 12:08am

Balf wrote: »

?

Can I remind you that the sequence of your 'contribution' is:

"You'll never get any civil servants out of Dublin. The unions won't wear it"

"Aren't half them already outside Dublin, including about 3,000 moved out of Dublin under the McCreevy plan?"

"Em, er I mean the other half."

Fair play to your self esteem not to have bowed out at that stage. Wish I'd enough interest to stick around and see if it ever gets balanced by a sense of self awareness.

Another post about nothing.

Maybe we can move past these silly little sarcastic posts and you can finally explain for us all why the large number of civil service jobs in Dublin (1 in every 2, as you so kindly highlighted for us all), that do not need to be in Dublin, cannot possibly be moved elsewhere.

Graham · 25-01-2020 12:25am

Mod Note

ok folks, enough with the sniping. And a friendly reminder the topic of the thread is 'Property Market 2020'.

Graham · 25-01-2020 12:47pm

Credit ratings agency Moody's are predicting house price inflation of 4.5% this year.

They're also predicting a pick-up in the buy-to-let sector, that would certainly be a change from previous years. I wonder if that will continue to be driven by the large scale institutional landlords or will we see increased activity on the private investor side.

handlemaster · 25-01-2020 12:48pm

Graham wrote: »

Credit ratings agency Moody's are predicting house price inflation of 4.5% this year.

They're also predicting a pick-up in the buy-to-let sector, that would certainly be a change from previous years. I wonder if that will continue to be driven by the large scale institutional landlords or will we see increased activity on the private investor side.

Interesting what is inflation running at ?

ebayissues · 25-01-2020 7:37pm

Whats the impact of buying a house in an area where new developments of apartments will be? E.g clongrifin/Cabra/Drimnagh

Should it make the values of the local houses go up or down?

I'm thinking when the developments are finished, it will strain local transports in that area being Luas/Bus/Dart.

Graham · 25-01-2020 8:06pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Interesting what is inflation running at ?

Can't say I've looked recently, wasn't it somewhere around 1%?

Graham · 25-01-2020 8:09pm

ebayissues wrote: »

Whats the impact of buying a house in an area where new developments of apartments will be? E.g clongrifin/Cabra/Drimnagh

Should it make the values of the local houses go up or down?

I'm thinking when the developments are finished, it will strain local transports in that area being Luas/Bus/Dart.

Good question, as a country it feels like it's always been done that way. Housing first, worry about transport later. It doesn't feel like property prices have been influenced much but I suppose that's hard to quantify in the absence or a comparable.

fret_wimp2 · 25-01-2020 8:12pm

ebayissues wrote: »

Whats the impact of buying a house in an area where new developments of apartments will be? E.g clongrifin/Cabra/Drimnagh

Should it make the values of the local houses go up or down?

I'm thinking when the developments are finished, it will strain local transports in that area being Luas/Bus/Dart.

Buy somewhere you can live now, not in 5 - 10 years when the additional amenities will be added. Train stations and luas lines are known for delays and taking a long time to be delivered.

If when a train station is built you will have a good commute, but the commute from thst area right now is unacceptable, prob beat to walk away, or face a few years of a commute you're not happy with.

Regarding values, assuming it's done reasonably well it shouldn't impact value either way in the immediate term and if eventually new luas and train lines materialize, then they usually being a price increase to the local property , IMO.

Property Market 2020

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