Property Market 2020

what_traffic · 22-01-2020 3:31pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Also I do think the build cost issue is a real one. With all new homes to be A2 from now on, there is a significant cost associated with that. Developers are not going to work for no margin.

That should not last long though, technology brings efficiency and the NEW products made for this rating will drop as they become the standard. Price of land is the bigger issue here and how long ultra low interest rates remain the normal.

what_traffic · 22-01-2020 3:54pm

lastusername wrote: »

Lower interest rates mean a lower cost of borrowing to pay for a home, and more people being in a position to afford to borrow to buy a house, a scenario that translates into higher prices. This argument, which is fast gaining currency, stems from the notion that the persistence of cheap credit inflates asset prices such as housing.

An example used that I read in the Irish Times on Friday was that a €1 million mortgage borrowed at 0.75 per cent and €450,000 mortgage borrowed at 7.5 per cent have the same repayment of €3,100 per month.

PHG · 22-01-2020 5:42pm

badboyblast wrote: »

Exactly, who's to say the average price of a house in 10 years wont be 400k nationwide, the market is on a bullrun in general, no one knows

That is what I was inferring. Fuq'd if I know if they are going up or down. I will hopefully buy later this year to hold for a 10+ years so up or down doesn't necessarily bother me*

*T+C's apply, of course a 60% drop would bother me, I mean 5-10% fluctations

odyssey06 · 22-01-2020 6:52pm

what_traffic wrote: »

That should not last long though, technology brings efficiency and the NEW products made for this rating will drop as they become the standard. Price of land is the bigger issue here and how long ultra low interest rates remain the normal.

Won't they just increase the rating again? Looks like it could be a ratchet effect.

rosmoke · 22-01-2020 8:00pm

At this point it's just funny to see that we are ignoring the elephant and we focus on all kind of problems, solutions but we can't really see that local needs criteria is actually the problem and can be the solution.
Not everyone needs to live & work in city centre, there are loads of people that can work from home and this is only getting more and more popular.
Not to mention that I can build a house in Naas and work in Dublin but I can't build a house in-between them two in the rural area.
Maybe I just don't want a 30 year mortgage, maybe I want a really small 50mp 4 walls type of residence that I can build myself ....

awec · 22-01-2020 8:11pm

rosmoke wrote: »

At this point it's just funny to see that we are ignoring the elephant and we focus on all kind of problems, solutions but we can't really see that local needs criteria is actually the problem and can be the solution.
Not everyone needs to live & work in city centre, there are loads of people that can work from home and this is only getting more and more popular.
Not to mention that I can build a house in Naas and work in Dublin but I can't build a house in-between them two in the rural area.
Maybe I just don't want a 30 year mortgage, maybe I want a really small 50mp 4 walls type of residence that I can build myself ....

Local needs is not the problem. One off country housing is part of the problem, not the solution.

The scattered housing in rural Ireland, to the detriment of population centres, is a large part of why public transport options and infrastructure outside of cities and large towns is so crap, which is part of why those areas struggle to attract new businesses for employment.

rosmoke · 22-01-2020 8:31pm

Oh cause infrastructure in main cities is so great!
Citywest to UCD 2 hours at non rush hour by public transport, now there's a bus finally (1.5 hours).
Citywest to Blanchardstown 1.5 hours by public transport non rush hour (13 minutes by car).
Have you ever waited for a bus 1 hour in Dublin?
It's grand, we'll buy in Navan or the commuter belt and commute to Dublin if you think that's better than allowing people to build at 1km away from Dublin Co, let the farmers live closer to Dublin, it makes sense

))

Dwarf.Shortage · 22-01-2020 8:58pm

rosmoke wrote: »

Oh cause infrastructure in main cities is so great!
Citywest to UCD 2 hours at non rush hour by public transport, now there's a bus finally (1.5 hours).
Citywest to Blanchardstown 1.5 hours by public transport non rush hour (13 minutes by car).
Have you ever waited for a bus 1 hour in Dublin?
It's grand, we'll buy in Navan or the commuter belt and commute to Dublin if you think that's better than allowing people to build at 1km away from Dublin Co, let the farmers live closer to Dublin, it makes sense ))

Dunno what your physical conditioning is like but you'd cycle it in half that if you're that way inclined.

rosmoke · 22-01-2020 9:06pm

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Dunno what your physical conditioning is like but you'd cycle it in half that if you're that way inclined.

My physical conditioning is quite good but I still wouldn't cycle that Monday-Friday with the wind & rain, try to suggest that to my wife.
I prefer to enjoy cycling, that's why I hit the trails in weekends.

Coming back to the topic.
Local needs is the worst idea ever, also illegal according to EU.

awec · 22-01-2020 9:33pm

rosmoke wrote: »

Oh cause infrastructure in main cities is so great!
Citywest to UCD 2 hours at non rush hour by public transport, now there's a bus finally (1.5 hours).
Citywest to Blanchardstown 1.5 hours by public transport non rush hour (13 minutes by car).
Have you ever waited for a bus 1 hour in Dublin?
It's grand, we'll buy in Navan or the commuter belt and commute to Dublin if you think that's better than allowing people to build at 1km away from Dublin Co, let the farmers live closer to Dublin, it makes sense ))

Infrastructure in Dublin is not great, but it's still a million times better than anything outside of Dublin.

We let people build houses up every boreen then wonder why infrastructure is crap and public transport is so hopeless. Never mind local needs, building houses outside of villages should be outright banned save in exceptional circumstances.

what_traffic · 23-01-2020 10:15am

what_traffic wrote: »

An example used that I read in the Irish Times on Friday was that a €1 million mortgage borrowed at 0.75 per cent and €450,000 mortgage borrowed at 7.5 per cent have the same repayment of €3,100 per month.

Could not find the link yesterday when I posted this. Was from the Cantillion column
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/real-price-of-cheap-credit-unaffordable-homes-1.4143284

The last paragraph was interesting
"
Equally if interest rates return to normalised levels, the value of properties could fall significantly leaving many of those on the lower rungs with their life savings tied up in shrinking-value assets.
"

ml100 · 23-01-2020 11:36am

awec wrote: »

Infrastructure in Dublin is not great, but it's still a million times better than anything outside of Dublin.

We let people build houses up every boreen then wonder why infrastructure is crap and public transport is so hopeless. Never mind local needs, building houses outside of villages should be outright banned save in exceptional circumstances.

You or the county councils or the government don't own the land around these villages to decide that it should be built on, the last few years the councils have given the fact that land is zoned around villages as a reason to refuse planning for one houses, complete bull****, yes land is zoned but the farmers that own it want to farm it not build on it, it could be the next generation before anything is built, in the mean time nothing is getting built, another problem is that the government keep putting all the jobs in Dublin, this might come as a surprise to the dubs but alot of people from the country dont want to live in Dublin!

snotboogie · 23-01-2020 12:43pm

ml100 wrote: »

You or the county councils or the government don't own the land around these villages to decide that it should be built on, the last few years the councils have given the fact that land is zoned around villages as a reason to refuse planning for one houses, complete bull****, yes land is zoned but the farmers that own it want to farm it not build on it, it could be the next generation before anything is built, in the mean time nothing is getting built, another problem is that the government keep putting all the jobs in Dublin, this might come as a surprise to the dubs but alot of people from the country dont want to live in Dublin!

Most job gains in the last 10 years have been in the private sector, the government don't choose where these jobs go.

I hate this Dublin or "de country" false dichotomy, yes Dublin has by far the most jobs but Cork and to a lesser extent Galway and Limerick are viable employment centres. See the data from the CSO:

https://twitter.com/harry_browne/status/1219541477023518720?s=20

There were over 100k people employed in Cork City in 2016 and over 100k employed between Limerick, Galway and Waterford cities combined. Those numbers will all have gone up over the last 4 years. We have viable urban alternatives to Dublin up and running.

The issue with one off houses is that it disperses the population. That obviously results in more car usage, more traffic and longer commutes. What you are proposing in terms of vast one off housing between Dublin and Naas would be a disaster. These houses need to commute to more places than work; they need to shop, take children to school and activities, they will need to socialize themselves. Even a small urban centre like Naas will provide schools, activities and facilities that a one off house would be nowhere near. We need people to live in and around our urban centres so that they are closer to facilities and don't need long commutes for every activity.

23-01-2020 12:55pm

If you want to live in a semi D thats well and good.
I can't deal with parking wars,barking dogs,slamming doors,trampolines all around,my eastern european neighbour cutting up pallets at 9am on saturday mornings (topless fat man),garden in shade all day from the neighbours house.3/4 kids bouncing basketballs outside first thing at the weekends etc
I've an extra 15mins each way since I moved but its worth it.

SozBbz · 23-01-2020 12:56pm

We're our own worst enemies when it comes to planning.

We need to get to grips with high quality, high density, urban living.

The by products of building large houses either as one offs of in developments increasingly far flung commuter towns is creating a social disaster for those same towns.

Take Wicklow town for example. People are going there to buy a "nice big house" and get "better value" than Dublin but not only are they sacrificing significant portions of their own lives, the towns they've moved to are suffering also. These peoples lives are often still Dublin centric so they don't really contribute to the local communities. The mainstreet are struggling to survive despite a vast population increase.

There needs to be leadership in planning to incentivise properties whereby people will live their real life in the community in which they live.

awec · 23-01-2020 1:33pm

I believe the government tried to get businesses to locate outside of Dublin for example through grants, but the businesses just aren't interested.

There are many reasons for this. One is infrastructure, and the other is staff.

In rural Ireland we have ribbon development, people building their houses in the middle of nowhere. The population is scattered all over the place. Therefore rural villages and towns struggle to hit the population mass to sustain small, local businesses. These local businesses are required to attract bigger businesses, because the people who work for the big business need places to buy their food, clothes, and entertain themselves. They also need other likeminded people in the vicinity, because people do need friends. There's also not enough people living in these places to justify decent bus services.

Thanks to the nature of development in rural Ireland, the reality is that living there requires a lot of travel to do everything. This in turn puts people off living there, which in turn means it struggles to attract significant employers.

People complain that rural Ireland is dying. Well, they're right. And rural planning is contributing to it.

Dwarf.Shortage · 23-01-2020 2:44pm

BrownFinger wrote: »

If you want to live in a semi D thats well and good.
I can't deal with parking wars,barking dogs,slamming doors,trampolines all around,my eastern european neighbour cutting up pallets at 9am on saturday mornings (topless fat man),garden in shade all day from the neighbours house.3/4 kids bouncing basketballs outside first thing at the weekends etc
I've an extra 15mins each way since I moved but its worth it.

TBH this post sounds like you're the bad neighbour.

I don't see your beef with the physically active children, the self sufficient neighbour chopping a bit of firewood (out of interest what has him being from Eastern Europe got to do with it? if he was Irish would him procuring a bit of firewood annoy you less?) and most bizarelly of all the people with the audacity to force you to look at a trampoline.

It sounds like your new location might suit both sides tbh, you sound like a bang average neighbour.

Also the space bar is towards the bottom of the keyboard, I'd to call to the neighbour for a Disprin after reading that.

lastusername · 23-01-2020 4:08pm

BrownFinger wrote: »

If you want to live in a semi D thats well and good.
I can't deal with parking wars,barking dogs,slamming doors,trampolines all around,my eastern european neighbour cutting up pallets at 9am on saturday mornings (topless fat man),garden in shade all day from the neighbours house.3/4 kids bouncing basketballs outside first thing at the weekends etc
I've an extra 15mins each way since I moved but its worth it.

So you weren't a fan of people...living their lives?!

Mic 1972 · 23-01-2020 7:10pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Davy have a vested interest in prices going up and talk up Brexit far too much. Brexit has been touted as having an impact on the property market for two years and yet nothing has happened with Brexit in that time. Davy never acknowledge publicly it seems that the issue of house price growth slowdown is to do with affordability and a lack of supply. To them, house price growth slowdown or decreases are necessarily a bad thing.

However, the rapid increase in prices the last seven years is purely down to demand increasing very quickly and supply not catching up. The growth slowdown or price decrease is more of a correction to offset the worryingly rapid rise in house prices in such a short space of time.

I might be in a minority here but in my opinion the end of recession is what made house prices go up again. Unemployment levels dropped in the last 6 years. As soon as people started to have jobs and money again house prices started to increase. I doubt prices are going to drop 10% like some say. If anything they will remain stable for another year

ml100 · 23-01-2020 7:49pm

lastusername wrote: »

So you weren't a fan of people...living their lives?!

Not when my life is disrupted by them, one of the main reasons why country people don't want to live in local villages is that most of these villages have way to many council houses!

rosmoke · 24-01-2020 2:12am

Glad to see there's at least someone else in this country that sees things straight.

We don't want houses to be built but we complain we've no houses and the state doesn't build and so on, are youse posting just to keep the post alive or you actually believe what you say?

If I live in Navan or other commuter town and commute to Dublin daily (like many others) do you actually think that I will pollute less than someone working remote who's residence is 1km away from Dublin? If you really believe that fine, give a law to force them own an EV, have solar panels, etc.

I do understand the idea that scattered houses is not the solution for everyone but I would love others to see that it is the solution for some and as a result housing would become more affordable and we would have less homeless.

OEP · 24-01-2020 9:11am

rosmoke wrote: »

Glad to see there's at least someone else in this country that sees things straight.

We don't want houses to be built but we complain we've no houses and the state doesn't build and so on, are youse posting just to keep the post alive or you actually believe what you say?

If I live in Navan or other commuter town and commute to Dublin daily (like many others) do you actually think that I will pollute less than someone working remote who's residence is 1km away from Dublin? If you really believe that fine, give a law to force them own an EV, have solar panels, etc.

I do understand the idea that scattered houses is not the solution for everyone but I would love others to see that it is the solution for some and as a result housing would become more affordable and we would have less homeless.

Scattered houses shouldn't be a solution for anyone. It benefits the individual and not society, we end forking out billions to get them broadband

ml100 · 24-01-2020 11:20am

OEP wrote: »

Scattered houses shouldn't be a solution for anyone. It benefits the individual and not society, we end forking out billions to get them broadband

And we are spending billions on a children's hospital in the centre of Dublin compared to building it somewhere on the m50.

The rural broadband scheme is a mistake by the current government not the people living in rural Ireland, there are cheaper ways of getting broadband to people in rural Ireland it's just that successive governments fail to get value for money on these large infrastructure projects.

By the way there is very few people within 20 miles of dublin that don't already have access to broadband, which is what the previous poster was talking about.

'Scattered' houses can be part of the housing solution, not everyone wants to live in the new ghettos of the future the developers are creating at the moment.

awec · 24-01-2020 11:30am

ml100 wrote: »

And we are spending billions on a children's hospital in the centre of Dublin compared to building it somewhere on the m50.

The rural broadband scheme is a mistake by the current government not the people living in rural Ireland, there are cheaper ways of getting broadband to people in rural Ireland it's just that successive governments fail to get value for money on these large infrastructure projects.

By the way there is very few people within 20 miles of dublin that don't already have access to broadband, which is what the previous poster was talking about.

'Scattered' houses can be part of the housing solution, not everyone wants to live in the new ghettos of the future the developers are creating at the moment.

Well firstly, there's a happy medium between scattered housing and ghettos. Don't think anyone is suggesting that everyone lives in high density housing developments.

But on the bolded point, there is no way to get value for money from these projects. If the government wants value for money in the case of rural broadband, they should provide broadband to villages, towns and cities, and people living outside them can do without.

If John who lives up his boreen in the middle of nowhere wants decent broadband, let him play 100% of the cost of getting the infrastructure from the nearest village to his front door. Every cent of it. Taxpayers should not be subsidising this nonsense.

ml100 · 24-01-2020 12:02pm

awec wrote: »

Well firstly, there's a happy medium between scattered housing and ghettos. Don't think anyone is suggesting that everyone lives in high density housing developments.

But on the bolded point, there is no way to get value for money from these projects. If the government wants value for money in the case of rural broadband, they should provide broadband to villages, towns and cities, and people living outside them can do without.

If John who lives up his boreen in the middle of nowhere wants decent broadband, let him play 100% of the cost of getting the infrastructure from the nearest village to his front door. Every cent of it. Taxpayers should not be subsidising this nonsense.

John should pay more for his broadband than someone living on a village, but john is a tax payer too the same as someone in a village and John's taxes are paying for street lights etc. in that village.

I think some people don't realise that people living in rural area already pay more for their services, my parents have their own well, they pay to maintain it, electricity etc, i.e they pay for their water, same for sewage septic tank etc no one in villages are paying for this, also they pay the council to repair the road they live on, in addition to paying property tax, they get their broadband through the phone line
and when getting that phone line connected 45 years ago they paid a fee based on how many poles had the be used to connect.

So you see tax payers living in rural Ireland already pay more for their services and are happy to do so as we can see what happens when you wait for government to provide them.

awec · 24-01-2020 12:20pm

ml100 wrote: »

John should pay more for his broadband than someone living on a village, but john is a tax payer too the same as someone in a village and John's taxes are paying for street lights etc. in that village.

I think some people don't realise that people living in rural area already pay more for their services, my parents have their own well, they pay to maintain it, electricity etc, i.e they pay for their water, same for sewage septic tank etc no one in villages are paying for this, also they pay the council to repair the road they live on, in addition to paying property tax, they get their broadband through the phone line
and when getting that phone line connected 45 years ago they paid a fee based on how many poles had the be used to connect.

So you see tax payers living in rural Ireland already pay more for their services and are happy to do so as we can see what happens when you wait for government to provide them.

John's taxes do not come close to covering the cost of John living in the middle of nowhere.

John's broadband bill being a bit higher will not cover the cost of getting the broadband to him in the first place.

Every inch of road that needs dug, every pole that needs erected, every cm of cable required, every hour labour required to get modern broadband infrastructure from the village to John's front door should be paid for by John. He can have a whip round with his "neighbours" if he wants to try soften the blow a bit and they can all get themselves connected at the same time. But we should not spend a cent of taxpayer money on this work, instead spending it on initiatives to the benefit of society at large.

Villages, towns and cities. Population centres are the way forward and the only way rural Ireland has any hope of surviving.

Graham · 24-01-2020 12:35pm

Interesting article in the IT today where 'leading property' experts give their opinions for fixing the property market:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/housing-crisis-seven-solutions-to-ireland-s-biggest-problem-1.4146872

Overhaul property tax
Reduce building costs
Political stability
Streamline bureaucracy and regulation
Increase supply of affordable homes
Remove PRSI and USC from rental income
The build-to-rent sector is key

Can anyone see any of these actually happening, and if they do will they have any effect on the property market this year?

ml100 · 24-01-2020 12:38pm

awec wrote: »

John's taxes do not come close to covering the cost of John living in the middle of nowhere.

John's broadband bill being a bit higher will not cover the cost of getting the broadband to him in the first place.

Every inch of road that needs dug, every pole that needs erected, every cm of cable required, every hour labour required to get modern broadband infrastructure from the village to John's front door should be paid for by John. He can have a whip round with his "neighbours" if he wants to try soften the blow a bit and they can all get themselves connected at the same time. But we should not spend a cent of taxpayer money on this work, instead spending it on initiatives to the benefit of society at large.

Villages, towns and cities. Population centres are the way forward and the only way rural Ireland has any hope of surviving.

Why do they have to lay cable?, we can get 70mb on 4g and 12 mb over phone line today which is more than enough to work from home etc and eith 5g it will only get better, you giving the worst case examples all the time, most one of houses are in smaller clusters up lanes etc where these services are already there and not on the side of a mountain in the middle of nowhere.

The mess the government has made of rolling out broadband is not a reason to stop people building in rural ireland, and people living there know that, its only people who don't want to or will never have the opportunity to living in rural Ireland that are so anti rural development.

And if we follow your logic above people in villages need to pay extra for street lights, play grounds etc as John is getting pissed off paying for them through his taxes!

awec · 24-01-2020 12:40pm

Graham wrote: »

Interesting article in the IT today where 'leading property' experts give their opinions for fixing the property market:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/housing-crisis-seven-solutions-to-ireland-s-biggest-problem-1.4146872
Overhaul property tax

Reduce building costs

Political stability

Streamline bureaucracy and regulation

Increase supply of affordable homes

Remove PRSI and USC from rental income

The build-to-rent sector is key

Can anyone see any of these actually happening, and if they do will they have any effect on the property market this year?

Isn't property tax supposed to be reviewed or something in the near future?

Only way to reduce building costs is to either cut labour costs, which is not going to happen, or build lower standard houses, which we surely don't want to happen.

what_traffic · 24-01-2020 12:47pm

Graham wrote: »

Interesting article in the IT today where 'leading property' experts give their opinions for fixing the property market:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/housing-crisis-seven-solutions-to-ireland-s-biggest-problem-1.4146872
Overhaul property tax

Reduce building costs

Political stability

Streamline bureaucracy and regulation

Increase supply of affordable homes

Remove PRSI and USC from rental income

The build-to-rent sector is key

Can anyone see any of these actually happening, and if they do will they have any effect on the property market this year?

I think Dermot O Leary (Overhaul property tax) had a useful suggestion. Get the LDA( Land Development Agency) to start throwing its weight around a bit more when talking with State and Semi-State orgs re land banks that they hold onto.

Property Market 2020

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