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25-10-2019, 22:00   #61
pauldry
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GFS looking good for snow (GFS) in November....about as likely as Southampton losing 9-0 at home to Leicester
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27-10-2019, 01:55   #62
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With the clocks back tonight each model run will now be an hour earlier - GFS start, 3:30 am/pm - ECM start, 6:00 am/pm...etc
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27-10-2019, 19:41   #63
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ECM, GFS and GEM all showing areas of LP moving towards us and staying close by or over us next weekend. Looks Quite wet at times and on the cool side. ECM not showing particularly strong winds with this, breezy / windy on coasts. UKMO bit slower bringing the LP towards us but it does show a deepening depression close by heading Eastwards or Northeastwards. GEM showing windy weather.

Models are showing the Jet taking a more Southerly route below Ireland.





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28-10-2019, 13:39   #64
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UKMO aand ECM showing a deep area of LP around next Sunday. GFS and GEM also showing something similar although at this stage track and timing different with all the models. ECM and UKMO looks quite windy Sunday at this stage. Looks quite unsettled from next weekend well into the following week.







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29-10-2019, 14:54   #65
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next week looks deeply unsettled and quite cool at times:

This Sunday looks very wet with a deep area of low pressure over us:


Tuesday looks cold and showery with north to north-east winds, possible wintryness over high ground.


Cold and wet conditions lasting into the week, perhaps some cold rain or sleetyness at times.





a brief attempt at something warmer by 12th of November but it doesn't last long.

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29-10-2019, 18:44   #66
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Some interesting synoptic evolutions starting to show up for next week. Varying on a theme of a northeasterly element and trough disruption.

Could yet turn out to be a cold week next week.
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29-10-2019, 22:23   #67
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charts updating, I'm getting cold just looking at what could be in store for early next week. Could be quite a windchill.
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30-10-2019, 10:26   #68
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Novemberrrrr has been trending cold for quite a while now. I think 7c will be the temperature a lot of the days and maybe 2 or 3c at night. Just wet to me. Cant see snow in those charts....yet
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30-10-2019, 13:40   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pauldry View Post
Novemberrrrr has been trending cold for quite a while now. I think 7c will be the temperature a lot of the days and maybe 2 or 3c at night. Just wet to me. Cant see snow in those charts....yet
yeah looks mostly wet so far. This mornings runs not quite as chilly as what was showing yesterday.Still mostly unsettled with plenty of rain or showers. The wind will certainly make it feel colder than reality.
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31-10-2019, 19:47   #70
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Cool if not cold general trend seems to be sticking . ECM showing plenty of cold frosty nights.











Last edited by Meteorite58; 31-10-2019 at 19:52.
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01-11-2019, 12:04   #71
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next week is indeed looking fairly chilly from Monday, especially next weekend, this is then followed by a milder trend.

Next Saturday looks very chilly, day time temperatures around mid single digits and an easterly component to the wind, which could possibly allow streamers to form in some eastern coastal areas. It probably won't be cold enough for snow to settle, but wintry showers can't be ruled out. However this is still a week away.



Uppers look fairly cold too:


Possible streamer activity: This would most likely be rain and sleet mix.
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01-11-2019, 13:17   #72
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Shades of 2010 in some of the charts with trough disruption occasionally allowing in some artic air through the Scandinavia route. This in spite of an increase of zonal winds in the northern hemisphere (same as the winters of 2010). But there is a way to go see any upgrades on this and for charts to come closer to fruition.

I'm actually cautiously optimistic though. There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.
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01-11-2019, 15:58   #73
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.
There's been a fairly angry Atlantic since September 20th, but it has quietened down a bit. Hopefully we can give it a 3 month sleeping tablet! I'm in the mood to face the great white Siberian Army once again!
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01-11-2019, 16:18   #74
pauldry
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kermit.de.frog View Post
Shades of 2010 in some of the charts with trough disruption occasionally allowing in some artic air through the Scandinavia route. This in spite of an increase of zonal winds in the northern hemisphere (same as the winters of 2010). But there is a way to go see any upgrades on this and for charts to come closer to fruition.

I'm actually cautiously optimistic though. There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.
Im of the same mindset Kermit. This could be the one. In 2000 we had lots of snow and 2010 too so maybe 19/20.

Certainly think a snowier Winter than past few is on the cards.

Atlantic has been pummelling us since August. Think there might be a lot of days though where people ask "its freezin. How come its still raining?"
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01-11-2019, 16:51   #75
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Almost time to set up this year's Stratosphere Watch thread I reckon, -80 isotherm finally showing up on the FI charts signalling Polar Vortex liftoff. A lot of chatter about how disconnected the strat and trop are this year which should make for an interesting thread! I'll leave it to Sryan or Meteorite to give one of ye'r epic introductory posts for folks new to Strat Watch and away we go
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