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are u feeling the recession?

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24

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    #32
    Dudess
    Closed Accounts Posts: 37,214 ✭✭✭✭Dudess


    But Sam, do you think there's a chance things could get as bad as they were in the 80s? Although I suppose it's that's where relative deprivation comes into it. Things probably wouldn't get as bad as the 80s but things could get to a point where they feel as bad as they felt back then - particularly to younger generations.


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    #33
    ImDave
    Registered Users Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭ImDave


    I don't think we will experience anything similar to what was felt in the 80s. Things will get much worse than they are now, but even that will only be bad in comparison to what we have been enjoying over the past 15 years. The majority of the world is being affected by this "credit crunch" but we are feeling it more so because we have become such a credit dependent nation.


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    #34
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    Dudess wrote: »
    But Sam, do you think there's a chance things could get as bad as they were in the 80s? Although I suppose it's that's where relative deprivation comes into it. Things probably wouldn't get as bad as the 80s but things could get to a point where they feel as bad as they felt back then - particularly to younger generations.
    It all depends on how badly the government duffs things up. I can't see things like interest rates going back to the double figures like during that period, as the ECB now has control of that, but on the other hand the people in power have hobbled us with one of the largest, best paid and least productive public sectors on earth (the end product of the property boom, thanks for that lads, we didn't need that infrastructure or domestic industries anyway).

    Now that the receipts from property sales have dried up, this bloated public sector needs to be paid, and you can bet income taxes are going to go up, bleeding yet more money from the economy.

    Unless something drastic happens like we lose our low corporate tax rates, I can't see things going back to the 80s. That won't be much comfort to all the graduates from Irish universities that won't be able to find work, but its something.

    What we need is intelligent, forward looking leadership who don't put their own interests before the interests of the country (ie no more thirty grand pay rise banditry). We need locally based export industries that will push money into the economy. The further away we are from that ideal, the worse it will get. So I'm not optimistic.


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    #35
    KnifeWRENCH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,148 ✭✭✭✭KnifeWRENCH


    No, but that's because I don't have a job and I get paid to go to college! :)


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    #36
    SarahMc
    Closed Accounts Posts: 517 ✭✭✭SarahMc


    Dudess wrote: »
    We were considered quite well off because we had two phones and two cars (although my mum's car would always be a bit of a jalopy) and we went to Britain every year...

    You were stinking rich. car + phone = well off. 2 cars + 2 phones = well I don't know, because I didn't know anyone with 2 phones back then, but 2 cars usually meant 2 incomes and that was serious wealth and jealousy from peers as children could go home and have the house to themselves afterschool and have pot noodles or a fray bentos (sic) pie for dinner .


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    #37
    Gone West
    Registered Users Posts: 6,374 ✭✭✭Gone West


    No times are good to fuzzy


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    #38
    BigglesMcGee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 501 ✭✭✭BigglesMcGee


    SarahMc wrote: »
    You were stinking rich. car + phone = well off. 2 cars + 2 phones = well I don't know, because I didn't know anyone with 2 phones back then, but 2 cars usually meant 2 incomes and that was serious wealth and jealousy from peers as children could go home and have the house to themselves afterschool and have pot noodles or a fray bentos (sic) pie for dinner .

    A car meant stinking rich to us. And a phone, well lets just say the phonebox at the edge of our estate was as good as it got for us.

    Getting 1 days work a month on a building site and hiding it from the dole office made you rich too.


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    #39
    wandering_star
    Closed Accounts Posts: 108 ✭✭wandering_star


    A phone?? A car??? That's just stinking rich :D

    When I was young 'un -I'm not talking the 80s but early 90s, living in perhaps not the safest part of Dublin to walk home alone in at night..unless you had a shank, if you had a shank you were alright :) I digress-when I was a young wan' the kids that got the foxes classic bars in their lunch boxes were the ones with the cash, not us unfotunates with the yellow pack snack bars. I always knew when the parents got paid and had a bit of spare change as occasionally I'd get a foxes classic bar :)

    It was only when I happened to come upon them the other day in the supermarket that I remember-that wrapper. It evoked so many emotions, a spectrum of emotions if you will, going from a dazzling jealous red to a calm violet of joy :)

    Is there a recession, I think that we've just past the peak of our economy and it's going to slow down to a normal pace...then again I'm not an economist. That said though, I've recently graduated and it's tough to find jobs out there-well in some areas, if you're not an accountant/maths genius or IT whizz, well there isn't much.

    That said I have it a lot easier then my folks did, who did the best they could for me with the little they had.


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    #40
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    A recession? No. Do people seem to be acting like they've less money in their pockets? I'd say definitely from what I've seen and heard.


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    #41
    gixerfixer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 759 ✭✭✭gixerfixer


    If you mean the fact that the average family now cant put a decent meal on the table everyday then no we are not in recession,if you mean that the average family will not be able to go away on two holidays a year and replace there 06 scenic with a 09 model next year then yes we are in recession


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    #42
    BigglesMcGee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 501 ✭✭✭BigglesMcGee


    gixerfixer wrote: »
    If you mean the fact that the average family now cant put a decent meal on the table everyday then no we are not in recession,if you mean that the average family will not be able to go away on two holidays a year and replace there 06 scenic with a 09 model next year then yes we are in recession

    Show me anyone who doesnt go on 2 or 3 holidays a year still :D


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    #43
    gixerfixer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 759 ✭✭✭gixerfixer


    BigglesMcGee wrote: »
    Show me anyone who doesnt go on 2 or 3 holidays a year still :D
    I dont.


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    #44
    Slidey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,811 ✭✭✭✭Slidey


    gixerfixer wrote: »
    I dont.
    That mean you will be on the raleigh 18 speed now?


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    #45
    mad m
    Registered Users Posts: 9,002 ✭✭✭mad m


    A couple of mates of mine are tradesmen, one is labouring now and the other is being put on a three day week now.


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    #46
    BigglesMcGee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 501 ✭✭✭BigglesMcGee


    Just for anyone in the building trade here. Why dont you advertise your services in local papers etc. I know i have soooo much work that i need done in the house that it will be going on for years. Ive just held it back til builders started quoting reasonable prices to do it. And i see others doing this all around me.

    A neighbor got an attic done for half the price the same company quoted them 2 years ago. Now we are all looking for their number.

    Just because you can only get €200 for labour for a 1 day job now instead of €500 doesnt mean you'll be living in poverty :)


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    #47
    IvaBigWun
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭IvaBigWun


    There will be a recession if everyone keeps fecking talking about one. I know Ive subconsciously tightened up the wallet a bit, and if too many people do that the dominoes will just keep knocking.


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    #48
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    IvaBigWun wrote: »
    There will be a recession if everyone keeps fecking talking about one. I know Ive subconsciously tightened up the wallet a bit, and if too many people do that the dominoes will just keep knocking.

    He's right there you know...I blame a combination of Eddie Hobbes, George Lee and David McWilliams for poking the house of cards we've all beeen living in for the last decade...

    As for tradesmen advertising in the local rag...you'll find that for the most part work you come across as a tradesman is mostly through personal recommendation and contacts built up over the years...ads on vans, in papers, whatever don't do feck all, especially when the bloody ads page is snowed under with them.


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    #49
    galwayrush
    Registered Users Posts: 12,815 ✭✭✭✭galwayrush


    The Banks have a lot to answer for, i have lots of work on my books, even more than last year, but i'm finding it hard to trade due to my Bank tightening up , they are clueless and ruthless.


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    #50
    BigglesMcGee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 501 ✭✭✭BigglesMcGee


    IvaBigWun wrote: »
    There will be a recession if everyone keeps fecking talking about one. I know Ive subconsciously tightened up the wallet a bit, and if too many people do that the dominoes will just keep knocking.

    Sure some people (media and posters here) would have nothing else to talk about. They would just be spouting on about the next crash and recession for another few years. Might as well get it over with.


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    #51
    galwayrush
    Registered Users Posts: 12,815 ✭✭✭✭galwayrush


    BigglesMcGee wrote: »
    Sure some people (media and posters here) would have nothing else to talk about. They would just be spouting on about the next crash and recession for another few years. Might as well get it over with.

    Can i be the first to predict the Boom we're going to have sometime in the future?:D


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    #52
    BigglesMcGee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 501 ✭✭✭BigglesMcGee


    galwayrush wrote: »
    Can i be the first to predict the Boom we're going to have sometime in the future?:D

    I was there first. I predicted it about 2 years ago. So there. :p


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    #53
    kowloon
    Registered Users Posts: 13,323 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    I quit a job just before the $hit hit the fan and started working in an area directly linked to the building trade.
    Looking for a new job as the work is drying up.
    I'm going back to college in Sept. but it's likely I will end up fully unemployed before then, glad I have savings.


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    #54
    galwayrush
    Registered Users Posts: 12,815 ✭✭✭✭galwayrush


    BigglesMcGee wrote: »
    I was there first. I predicted it about 2 years ago. So there. :p

    Let it be on record that i predict you will be proved correct.:D
    btw, my Dad predicted this recession before the Celtic Tiger ( Celtic Overdraft) began.:pac:


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    #55
    Kovik
    Closed Accounts Posts: 218 ✭✭Kovik


    This "recession" has primarily been caused by poor bank lending policy. Things have ground to a halt now that they've stopped lending to each other. Property side, there's no "bubble" that's burst and it's doubtful that we'll have any extended period of negative growth. The depreciation of assets is mostly going to be a secondary effect and mostly companies will be faced with a cashflow problem if they've accumulated a certain ammount of debt after periods of expansion.

    Rather than recede, the economy is going to be static for a while. For larger interests, inflation might run up as debt remains consistent while cash becomes more scarce. Assets, mainly shares, will depreciate and investment will slow down (but not pull out). That aside, I can't see an awful lot of job losses or other adverse effects on the individual and we'll likely come out the other end with a ridiculous ammount of investment in a cheaper stock market which would be a welcome move away from the more prohibitive property sector.


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    #56
    Kovik
    Closed Accounts Posts: 218 ✭✭Kovik


    galwayrush wrote: »
    Let it be on record that i predict you will be proved correct.:D
    btw, my Dad predicted this recession before the Celtic Tiger ( Celtic Overdraft) began.:pac:
    Not exactly a bold prediction. Economies run in cycles of boom and slowdown. If you're enjoying one, you can predict the other.


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    #57
    MissHoneyBun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,131 ✭✭✭MissHoneyBun


    BigglesMcGee wrote: »
    Show me anyone who doesnt go on 2 or 3 holidays a year still :D

    Ok Ross maybe the O'Carroll Kelly's always go abroad 3 times a year but it's certainly not the norm and anyone who pretends it is is either running Daddy's Business or racking up debts


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    #58
    Pikasso
    Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Pikasso


    MissHoneyBun wrote: »
    Ok Ross maybe the O'Carroll Kelly's always go abroad 3 times a year but it's certainly not the norm and anyone who pretends it is is either running Daddy's Business or racking up debts

    May I be so bold as to suggest that those who are going on 2 or 3 hols a year have signed up to yet another credit card? :D


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    #59
    MissHoneyBun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,131 ✭✭✭MissHoneyBun


    Pikasso wrote: »
    May I be so bold as to suggest that those who are going on 2 or 3 hols a year have signed up to yet another credit card? :D

    Go for it!


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    #60
    SimpleSam06
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,048 ✭✭✭SimpleSam06


    Kovik wrote: »
    Property side, there's no "bubble" that's burst and it's doubtful that we'll have any extended period of negative growth.
    Hahah, can I quote you on that in three or four years? :D


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    #61
    Kovik
    Closed Accounts Posts: 218 ✭✭Kovik


    SimpleSam06 wrote: »
    Hahah, can I quote you on that in three or four years? :D
    Hey, I'm not saying the bubble won't or can't burst, but in terms of this recession it seems to be holding strong and I don't see us enduring any substantial negative growth for the time being.

    Personally, I think we're going to have a soft landing when it comes to the bubble. The level of "investment" in property is likely simply an indication of the level of new money that's come into this society over the twenty years and I think we'll see a substantial diversification of portfolios in the next five years as building comes down off its apex.


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