are u feeling the recession?

steo123

in the media day in day out we hear the celtic tigr is dead!

how bad is it really?

personally speaking i have been as yet unaffected!!luckily!

anybody out of work/unable to get work due to the recession???

Sherifu

What recession?

ejmaztec

I know where you're coming from. A lot of people have been selling the keys from their keyboards to buy food for their children.

jaffa20

Celtic Tiger was like a 90's boom. We're way past that.

Ponster

There is no recession.

Looks like the US economy is going to pull up and avoid the recession that everyone feared.


EDIT: In the USA it's defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP (no idea if it's the same in Ireland).

Susannahmia

I have noticed that they are finding it impossible to sell the houses in the new estate beside me, they are getting so desperate that they are now offering a free car along with the houses. Not long ago, those houses would have been snapped up.

Pikasso

Ponster wrote: »

There is no recession.

Looks like the US economy is going to pull up and avoid the recession that everyone feared.

A lot of people would disagree. It's definitely a recession!

Einstein

i dont think we're anywhere close to a recession yet...yea people have tightened their belts, but thats about it...

JangoFett

You can do a lot nowadays to prevent this recession and this on we're threatened with is all about OIL! Time to ACTUALLY move towards renewable clean energy

Pighead

JangoFett wrote: »

You can do a lot nowadays to prevent this recession and this on we're threatened with is all about OIL! Time to ACTUALLY move towards renewable clean energy

Or you could just do what Pighead has done and tell the butler that his wages are going to be halved with immediate effect due to the current economic climate. Problem solved.

Wertz

If by "recession" you mean "yore ma" then yes.
Otherwise no.

Seriously though...yeah kinda, been very quiet initially this year in my line of work, didn't work a day of march or april...picked up a bit since, but definitely people are spending less on decorating their homes or buying new houses, consequently I'm earning less and have less disposable income, same with a lot of people in the trades and their supporting industries. The knock on effects are starting to kick in...fuel prices aren't helping either...

Harpy

Ponster wrote: »

EDIT: In the USA it's defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP (no idea if it's the same in Ireland).

yeah thats the economic definition of a recession . in america though it comes down to the NBER they basically decide whether the country is in recession..if its declining for a few months they will say its in recession..

deisedevil

For me it's been business as usual. Haven't felt any hit in the pocket. Thank the lord!!

Pighead

deisedevil wrote: »

For me it's been business as usual. Haven't felt any hit in the pocket. Thank the lord!!

Thats the great thing about your line of work deisedevil. Men will always always want blowjobs.

BigglesMcGee

Pikasso wrote: »

A lot of people would disagree. It's definitely a recession!

They must be young.
In a real recession you'll be meeting all your mates down in the dole office or in the airport on their way to work for peanuts in another country.

Seriously, in a real recession 90% of the people you know wont have a job.

Ask anyone over 40 about this.

gogglebok

steo123 wrote: »

in the media day in day out we hear the celtic tigr is dead!

how bad is it really?

I've noticed a few places closing recently. That Italian place near Fishamble Street that did pricey coffees and snacks is out of business. The olive oil shop on George's Street went about a year ago, and some of those expensive bean-bag shops and plastic-stools-for-400-euro shops will surely be gone by Christmas. I think things really are getting a bit tighter.

deisedevil

Pighead wrote: »

Thats the great thing about your line of work deisedevil. Men will always always want blowjobs.

Ya, and they'll always find a way of getting the money, like cutting their butlers wages etc.

colly10

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

They must be young.
In a real recession you'll be meeting all your mates down in the dole office or in the airport on their way to work for peanuts in another country.

Seriously, in a real recession 90% of the people you know wont have a job.

Ask anyone over 40 about this.

Ye, it definitely won't get that bad, but things have certainly gotten worse in the past 6 months, hasn't hit me personally yet but i've seen how it's affecting a few around me lately. Id say if things don't improve i'll be lucky if im not affected before the end of the year

Pighead

deisedevil wrote: »

Ya, and they'll always find a way of getting the money, like cutting their butlers wages etc.

deisedevil 1 Pighead 0. You win buddy. Game set and match. Pighead wasn't expecting that. Gonna put you on the "You must never slag off these people again, because they're far too clever for you Pighead" list.

AlmightyCushion

Pikasso wrote: »

A lot of people would disagree. It's definitely a recession!

Well those people will get a serious shock to the system if Ireland ever goes through an actual recession.

deisedevil

Pighead wrote: »

deisedevil 1 Pighead 0. You win buddy. Game set and match. Pighead wasn't expecting that. Gonna put you on the "You must never slag off these people again, because they're far too clever for you Pighead" list.

I didn't expect that, was waiting for a lash of your sharp tongue. I'm considering myself lucky to have got away with that one.

Ponster

steo123 wrote: »

in the media day in day out we hear the celtic tigr is dead!

The boom that began in the 90's slowed down in 2001, picked back up again in 2003 (property bubble?) and has again slowed down since 2007.

But this is just a slow-down we're looking at. Since the mid-90's Ireland is in a much better, stronger position to be able to survive a future recession should one come along (which it will, we *always*a have periods of growth followed by recession).

Things not being as good as they used to be != recession

Davidius

No.

dresden8

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

They must be young.
In a real recession you'll be meeting all your mates down in the dole office or in the airport on their way to work for peanuts in another country.

Seriously, in a real recession 90% of the people you know wont have a job.

Ask anyone over 40 about this.

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/live-register-figures-up-almost-50000-in-past-year-1404376.html

50,000 people are feeling the pinch. Interesting to see when the CSO publish the figures for the number in employment and what has happened to average wages versus inflation.

But it is true, for most people still in work there's so much fat built into their spending, like 3 Euro for a coffee on the way into work, where there is usually a kettle. And coffee. Hugely expensive sambos for lunch etc.

elmolesto

Recession? What are you on about?

ShoulderChip

I wonder does pighead really have a butler?

Dudess

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

They must be young.
In a real recession you'll be meeting all your mates down in the dole office or in the airport on their way to work for peanuts in another country.

Seriously, in a real recession 90% of the people you know wont have a job.

Ask anyone over 40 about this.

Yeah, so true. And it's scarily recent how bad things were. I always associated what's in your quote with the 80s, but on Reeling in the Years 1991 the other day, there was a clip of graduates heading off to the States. One girl was saying she had a law degree and was working in McDonalds - not even an arts degree, a LAW one! In the 1993 edition, the closure of Digital in Galway was featured and a few of the redundant workers were vox popped - one of them spoke about how there wasn't a hope in hell of them being able to find work, that there were simply no jobs.
I'm 30 but I remember much of the 80s very well and Ireland was a much, much gloomier place than it is now - even something like Dunnes Stores sums it up. Back then, it was a drab warehouse selling grey, dreary products, today it's all kitted out in high quality decor, and selling products that would rival those of some of the better quality high street retailers.

I remember kids in my class who didn't have a phone, others who didn't have a car, others who had neither - and these weren't considered particularly poor people. It was all relative. This was a comfortable, middle-class area. But Cork, where I grew up, was hit particularly badly. It was an economic blackspot - particularly when Ford and Dunlop closed in the mid 80s.

Going abroad on holidays was quite an unusual thing to do: I'm not even talking about Spain - England or Wales would have been enough. We were considered quite well off because we had two phones and two cars (although my mum's car would always be a bit of a jalopy) and we went to Britain every year (I could even see the massive gap in wealth between Thatcher's Britain and Ireland back then as a small child). My brothers went to a private school in the 80s/early 90s and they knew a number of lads whose dads lost their jobs.
We were lucky, as my dad was employed by the government - it seems if you were working for a private company you were on shaky ground.

Right now I can see it in terms of property all right - so many For Sale signs and they are just not coming down. Other than that, life is pretty sweet compared to how it was 20 years ago. However I'm glad I work for a university - it could be a vulnerable time for some companies within the private sector. But nothing like before...

Dave!

No, cos I'm not a builder

SimpleSam06

Ponster wrote: »

Looks like the US economy is going to pull up and avoid the recession that everyone feared.

The US has temporarily staved off serious economic troubles by making a huge fund available for banks to dip into if they find themselves in trouble. This cannot be sustained, or they'll drive inflation through the roof and end up worse off than they were before. I emphasise the word "temporarily".

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

Seriously, in a real recession 90% of the people you know wont have a job.

Thats a full blown depression, not a recession.

Ponster wrote: »

But this is just a slow-down we're looking at. Since the mid-90's Ireland is in a much better, stronger position to be able to survive a future recession should one come along (which it will, we *always*a have periods of growth followed by recession).

Ireland is in a terrible position. When a fifth of your economy is people selling houses to each other, and a large slice of the rest is dependent on foreign companies that can uproot and go to cheaper climes on a whim, you are not in a good position. The easing of global credit restrictions in 2001 flooded the system with cheap money, making our survivability a shaky proposition at best, since all that money needs to be repaid, starting around mid 2007.

On a personal level, I have a variety of commercial interests throughout the country that deal directly with businesses, so I'd be on the forefront of recessionary effects, unlike your average consumer who will be insulated for a while.

We're seeing competitors and clients closing up on all sides, and payments coming in are either being deferred for weeks or months longer than usual, or simply filed under bad debts. Even from normally very dependable clients. It seems that even the talk of a recession is closing wallets left, right and centre. Compared to last year, turnover has dropped considerably. Happily we are well diversified, but for less resilient groups you are looking at redundancies and closures. If you take the cheap money out of the equation, surprise surprise, very few have any money left.

So yes, the recession is being felt.

Sherifu

Dave! wrote: »

No, cos I'm not a builder

Or an estate agent...

Doctor DooM

They just announced 106 extra jobs where I work.

Dudess

But Sam, do you think there's a chance things could get as bad as they were in the 80s? Although I suppose it's that's where relative deprivation comes into it. Things probably wouldn't get as bad as the 80s but things could get to a point where they feel as bad as they felt back then - particularly to younger generations.

ImDave

I don't think we will experience anything similar to what was felt in the 80s. Things will get much worse than they are now, but even that will only be bad in comparison to what we have been enjoying over the past 15 years. The majority of the world is being affected by this "credit crunch" but we are feeling it more so because we have become such a credit dependent nation.

SimpleSam06

Dudess wrote: »

But Sam, do you think there's a chance things could get as bad as they were in the 80s? Although I suppose it's that's where relative deprivation comes into it. Things probably wouldn't get as bad as the 80s but things could get to a point where they feel as bad as they felt back then - particularly to younger generations.

It all depends on how badly the government duffs things up. I can't see things like interest rates going back to the double figures like during that period, as the ECB now has control of that, but on the other hand the people in power have hobbled us with one of the largest, best paid and least productive public sectors on earth (the end product of the property boom, thanks for that lads, we didn't need that infrastructure or domestic industries anyway).

Now that the receipts from property sales have dried up, this bloated public sector needs to be paid, and you can bet income taxes are going to go up, bleeding yet more money from the economy.

Unless something drastic happens like we lose our low corporate tax rates, I can't see things going back to the 80s. That won't be much comfort to all the graduates from Irish universities that won't be able to find work, but its something.

What we need is intelligent, forward looking leadership who don't put their own interests before the interests of the country (ie no more thirty grand pay rise banditry). We need locally based export industries that will push money into the economy. The further away we are from that ideal, the worse it will get. So I'm not optimistic.

KnifeWRENCH

No, but that's because I don't have a job and I get paid to go to college!

SarahMc

Dudess wrote: »

We were considered quite well off because we had two phones and two cars (although my mum's car would always be a bit of a jalopy) and we went to Britain every year...

You were stinking rich. car + phone = well off. 2 cars + 2 phones = well I don't know, because I didn't know anyone with 2 phones back then, but 2 cars usually meant 2 incomes and that was serious wealth and jealousy from peers as children could go home and have the house to themselves afterschool and have pot noodles or a fray bentos (sic) pie for dinner .

Gone West

No times are good to fuzzy

BigglesMcGee

SarahMc wrote: »

You were stinking rich. car + phone = well off. 2 cars + 2 phones = well I don't know, because I didn't know anyone with 2 phones back then, but 2 cars usually meant 2 incomes and that was serious wealth and jealousy from peers as children could go home and have the house to themselves afterschool and have pot noodles or a fray bentos (sic) pie for dinner .

A car meant stinking rich to us. And a phone, well lets just say the phonebox at the edge of our estate was as good as it got for us.

Getting 1 days work a month on a building site and hiding it from the dole office made you rich too.

wandering_star

A phone?? A car??? That's just stinking rich

When I was young 'un -I'm not talking the 80s but early 90s, living in perhaps not the safest part of Dublin to walk home alone in at night..unless you had a shank, if you had a shank you were alright I digress-when I was a young wan' the kids that got the foxes classic bars in their lunch boxes were the ones with the cash, not us unfotunates with the yellow pack snack bars. I always knew when the parents got paid and had a bit of spare change as occasionally I'd get a foxes classic bar

It was only when I happened to come upon them the other day in the supermarket that I remember-that wrapper. It evoked so many emotions, a spectrum of emotions if you will, going from a dazzling jealous red to a calm violet of joy

Is there a recession, I think that we've just past the peak of our economy and it's going to slow down to a normal pace...then again I'm not an economist. That said though, I've recently graduated and it's tough to find jobs out there-well in some areas, if you're not an accountant/maths genius or IT whizz, well there isn't much.

That said I have it a lot easier then my folks did, who did the best they could for me with the little they had.

nesf

A recession? No. Do people seem to be acting like they've less money in their pockets? I'd say definitely from what I've seen and heard.

gixerfixer

If you mean the fact that the average family now cant put a decent meal on the table everyday then no we are not in recession,if you mean that the average family will not be able to go away on two holidays a year and replace there 06 scenic with a 09 model next year then yes we are in recession

BigglesMcGee

gixerfixer wrote: »

If you mean the fact that the average family now cant put a decent meal on the table everyday then no we are not in recession,if you mean that the average family will not be able to go away on two holidays a year and replace there 06 scenic with a 09 model next year then yes we are in recession

Show me anyone who doesnt go on 2 or 3 holidays a year still

gixerfixer

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

Show me anyone who doesnt go on 2 or 3 holidays a year still

I dont.

Slidey

gixerfixer wrote: »

I dont.

That mean you will be on the raleigh 18 speed now?

mad m

A couple of mates of mine are tradesmen, one is labouring now and the other is being put on a three day week now.

BigglesMcGee

Just for anyone in the building trade here. Why dont you advertise your services in local papers etc. I know i have soooo much work that i need done in the house that it will be going on for years. Ive just held it back til builders started quoting reasonable prices to do it. And i see others doing this all around me.

A neighbor got an attic done for half the price the same company quoted them 2 years ago. Now we are all looking for their number.

Just because you can only get €200 for labour for a 1 day job now instead of €500 doesnt mean you'll be living in poverty

IvaBigWun

There will be a recession if everyone keeps fecking talking about one. I know Ive subconsciously tightened up the wallet a bit, and if too many people do that the dominoes will just keep knocking.

Wertz

IvaBigWun wrote: »

There will be a recession if everyone keeps fecking talking about one. I know Ive subconsciously tightened up the wallet a bit, and if too many people do that the dominoes will just keep knocking.

He's right there you know...I blame a combination of Eddie Hobbes, George Lee and David McWilliams for poking the house of cards we've all beeen living in for the last decade...

As for tradesmen advertising in the local rag...you'll find that for the most part work you come across as a tradesman is mostly through personal recommendation and contacts built up over the years...ads on vans, in papers, whatever don't do feck all, especially when the bloody ads page is snowed under with them.

galwayrush

The Banks have a lot to answer for, i have lots of work on my books, even more than last year, but i'm finding it hard to trade due to my Bank tightening up , they are clueless and ruthless.

BigglesMcGee

IvaBigWun wrote: »

There will be a recession if everyone keeps fecking talking about one. I know Ive subconsciously tightened up the wallet a bit, and if too many people do that the dominoes will just keep knocking.

Sure some people (media and posters here) would have nothing else to talk about. They would just be spouting on about the next crash and recession for another few years. Might as well get it over with.

galwayrush

BigglesMcGee wrote: »

Sure some people (media and posters here) would have nothing else to talk about. They would just be spouting on about the next crash and recession for another few years. Might as well get it over with.

Can i be the first to predict the Boom we're going to have sometime in the future?:D