FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

nacho libre · 14-12-2020 11:40pm

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The latest EC46 update makes for pleasant viewing if you are fond of cold spells. . We could be on the cusp of something noteworthy after Christmas. Steve Murr might be making a return to Netweather soon.

Gonzo · 15-12-2020 12:33am

tonights pub run is most interesting. Perhaps a notch milder over Christmas but still generally cold. We try to get in a warm sector from the Atlantic on Monday 28th of December with a band of heavy rain approaching Ireland from the west. it will still be fairly chilly in Leinster but turning much milder across the west temporarily.

On Tuesday 29th this band of rather heavy rain attempts to cross Ireland while at the same time winds are very quickly turning into the east.

The rain turns to sleet and snow over much of Leinster and Ulster as cold easterlies start to undercut this band of precipitation moving in from the west.

We finish on Wednesday 30th of December with winds in from the east and temperatures lowering.

The band of rain, sleet and snow pushes back into the west and Wintry showers of rain, sleet and snow starting moving in from the Irish sea in a stiff easterly wind.

Showers would be of rain or sleet near the coasts but should fall as snow futher inland.

A very interesting run by tonights GFS, a brief northerly over Christmas, then the mild tries to return but in a battleground type situation the cold wins and we then get an easterly, although not a bitterly cold easterly, looks a bit marginal in terms of snowfall. This is at the very extended range of the GFS so no doubt it won't play out like this but interesting to see. The cold trend continues.

Rebelbrowser · 15-12-2020 12:50am

It mirrors very much what the CFS was showing two weeks ago though which is interesting. The much maligned CFS showed the late spring 2018 beast from the east from a long way out too.

Birdnuts · 15-12-2020 1:41am

Scubadevils wrote: »

I'd absolutely take that for Christmas - cold and dry is significantly better than mildish and wet... I can't think of anything worse weather-wise than say 12c, dull and damp on Christmas day. Snow is top prize, but this absolutely 2nd prize.

The vast majority of Christmas days I can remember in the past 40 years or so have been just like that - in fact I would go further and say the 25th of Dec is probably the least likely day within the 3 winter months to see falling snow. Remember far more snowy Paddy's day and Easters:rolleyes:

Slashermcguirk · 15-12-2020 9:35am

It’s what made Christmas 2010 so incredible. 40cm of snow in the garden in Dublin on Christmas Day, absolute magic

seamus · 15-12-2020 3:18pm

The lying snow on that Xmas day was nice alright, but I think 2004 was my most memorable one. It was a cold and dry Xmas Eve, went to bed and woke up Xmas morning to a serious covering of snow and more falling. Think it ended up being around 6 inches in the end. Real movie stuff.

MJohnston · 15-12-2020 3:43pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It’s what made Christmas 2010 so incredible. 40cm of snow in the garden in Dublin on Christmas Day, absolute magic

I'm not sure it was all that magic by Christmas Day after it having been there (in most of the country) for an entire month!

Slashermcguirk · 15-12-2020 4:26pm

We actually had the first very heavy falls of snow as early as November in 2010. From memory there was snow lying on the ground in Dublin for 6 consecutive weeks up until just after Christmas even though there was one or two milder spells in between, the snow fell so heavy that year. I even remember there was still some snow on the ground in a local car park in late February 2011 where massive amounts had been pushed up into against a wall and it took over 2 months to fully thaw.

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm not sure it was all that magic by Christmas Day after it having been there (in most of the country) for an entire month!

Kermit.de.frog · 15-12-2020 8:29pm

It still looks good for the Christmas period around Christmas Day onward. Maybe some snow around for the big day.

Not going to get too excited unless the trend stays in place or improves next few days.

nacho libre · 15-12-2020 9:04pm

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We have seen so many promising ECM 240 hours charts before that amounted to nothing. Maybe this one will comes to pass! If it did, we could be in for a sustained cold spell.

Billcarson · 15-12-2020 9:07pm

Looks like some kind of cold snap is fairly likely for xmas atm, probably just a toppler would be my guess. If we are lucky though and get something like the ecm 10 day chart perhaps a cold spell.........

pauldry · 15-12-2020 10:19pm

Too Northwesterly on latest GFS. Might bring sleet to Knock but rain to rest of NW. Milder slightly Xmas day 7 to 8c. Light showers. Light frost at night.

Rebelbrowser · 16-12-2020 12:06am

18z gfs again has a cool Xmas day but with proper, easterly sourced, cold before NYE

nacho libre · 16-12-2020 12:21am

Yes, it's a very good run indeed. Too bad it's the so- called pub run. Tomorrow it will likely have changed again to something less good, but the trend is certainly for something a bit more seasonal for the big day.

BLIZZARD7 · 16-12-2020 12:43am

If this trend continues through tomorrow I will start to take notice, very unusual NH patterns appearing on latter frames of the GFS and ECM runs today. In the extended range of the GFS we have what looks like a stratospheric warming appearing in tandem with monster northern blocking. All well out in FI for now but maybe just maybe something special is about to develop... We are overdue a proper late December/January cold spell.

Gonzo · 16-12-2020 8:10pm

last nights pub run was very good, today's doesn't look quite as good but it is clear we are still heading towards a cold spell from Christmas to possibly New Year's Day. For the most part it looks dry, not much in the way of snow potential so far but if we do manage to get any showers going they would most likely be very wintry in nature.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are looking genuinely very cold with temperature anomolies suggesting temperatures between 4 and 6C below average for late December.

The ECM extended range is predicting a very cold first 10 days of January and then signs of a warm up and possible return of the Atlantic into the second half of January. Much of this cold will involve high pressure so I don't think we will be seeing much in the way of precipitation once we get the cold in place. Perhaps with a bit of luck we will get something more easterly and unstable as we head into the new year.

A cold temperature anomoly is predicted by the Ecm for first half of January, this is a long way out but it is looking very promising. This is indicating a very long fetch easterly stretching from the heartland of central Russia right across to Ireland. Fingers crossed this verifies and hopefully most of us will see some flakes by this stage.

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pauldry · 17-12-2020 12:29am

That pub run on the GFS is hopefully drunk. Dont think that would bring much wintriness for Christmas bar hailstones. Still well over a week away but trend is cool to cold. Still that run has a few mild days thrown in too. Could it be one of those mild cold mild cold Christmases

Gonzo · 17-12-2020 12:49am

yep an absolute turd of a pub run tonight. A brief cool spell and then back to the Atlantic by New Years. No real northerly and not a sniff of an easterly.

pad199207 · 17-12-2020 12:51am

Gonzo wrote: »

yep an absolute turd of a pub run tonight. A brief cool spell and then back to the Atlantic by New Years. No real northerly and not a sniff of an easterly.

And that’s exactly what will most likely happen. We have had more then enough let downs on here over the last 10 years for people to know better to not get excited until it’s well into the 96hr timeframe at the least.

lostweekend3 · 17-12-2020 1:10am

pad199207 wrote: »

And that’s exactly what will most likely happen. We have had more then enough let downs on here over the last 10 years for people to know better to not get excited until it’s well into the 96hr timeframe at the least.

Good point but it’s one run and it’s the GFS which keeps chopping and changing. The GFS 18z pub run, even more unreliable. Let’s see what happens over The next few days with ECM, UKMO and GFS. I don’t think anyone is expecting a lot of snow but most of us would like to see a seasonable spell over Christmas with frost.

arctictree · 17-12-2020 10:33am

Here's one for this thread! GFS 0z for early new years eve:

nacho libre · 17-12-2020 11:56am

Gonzo wrote: »

yep an absolute turd of a pub run tonight. A brief cool spell and then back to the Atlantic by New Years. No real northerly and not a sniff of an easterly.

Unfortunately, this is exactly what the UK Met Office and other long range forecasts have been suggesting. They do get it wrong sometimes, but that's usually when predicting colder. It will be interesting to see what the lastest ec46 will show, but i have feeling it will flip back to a milder outlook for January. Still at least we should get a White Christmas of a kind this year.

Humberto Salazar · 17-12-2020 11:59am

nacho libre wrote: »

Unfortunately, this is exactly what the UK Met Office and other long range forecasts have been suggesting. They do get it wrong sometimes, but that's usually when predicting colder. It will be interesting to see what the lastest ec46 will show, but i have feeling it will flip back to a milder outlook for January. Still at least we should get a White Christmas of a kind this year.

If it's mild and wet by end of Dec, start of January, that's usually it for the winter. There are exceptions of course *1947, cough* and one or two brief cold slots are always possible but in general I've found this to be true regarding deep cold.

irishrover99 · 17-12-2020 1:30pm

arctictree wrote: »

Here's one for this thread! GFS 0z for early new years eve:

First it was 22nd of December.
Then the 25th.
Now the 31st.

I’m sure by next week it will be the 7th of January.
It’s the same every year in Ireland.
You are better of wishing for dry mild weather as it’s either that or rain and wind.
Snow will happen once every 20 years.
And by that I mean a real snow situation worth getting excited about.

seamus · 17-12-2020 1:35pm

irishrover99 wrote: »

First it was 22nd of December.
Then the 25th.
Now the 31st.

I’m sure by next week it will be the 7th of January.
It’s the same every year in Ireland.
You are better of wishing for dry mild weather as it’s either that or rain and wind.
Snow will happen once every 20 years.
And by that I mean a real snow situation worth getting excited about.

That's why this is the fantasy thread. There's no point being negative about it.

This thread is like doing the lotto. Half of the fun of it is in dreaming about what could be rather than expecting anything to happen.

Gonzo · 17-12-2020 2:05pm

It does appear we are flipping back to mild. A steady run of downgrades since yesterday, particularly the GFS. The GEM has never really gone for this cold spell. The GFS and ECM still have cool weather in there but nothing particularly cold or exciting.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-12-2020 2:08pm

Yup. It's still at a distance though where things could swing back again.

Slashermcguirk · 17-12-2020 2:27pm

We had massive snow events in 2010 and in 2018. 20 years just a slight exaggeration. In fact winter 2009 / 2010 also has bitter cold spell and snow and I think parts of ulster also has very heavy snow event in 2009 or early 2010.

We do tend to get mild winters but the last 10 years has had some superb snow in fairness. Let’s not forget it snowed just 2 weeks ago in many places

irishrover99 wrote: »

First it was 22nd of December.
Then the 25th.
Now the 31st.

I’m sure by next week it will be the 7th of January.
It’s the same every year in Ireland.
You are better of wishing for dry mild weather as it’s either that or rain and wind.
Snow will happen once every 20 years.
And by that I mean a real snow situation worth getting excited about.

seamus · 17-12-2020 2:34pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

We had massive snow events in 2010 and in 2018. 20 years just a slight exaggeration. In fact winter 2009 / 2010 also has bitter cold spell and snow and I think parts of ulster also has very heavy snow event in 2009 or early 2010.

Realistically much of Ireland had two massive snow events in 2010. The first started on the east coast New Year's Eve about 10pm, and we had heavy lying snow for (I think) 2 weeks, which spread quite far west.

On its own that would have been exceptional and we'd still be talking about it, but then we had the second even bigger event in November.

Gonzo · 17-12-2020 2:52pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Let’s not forget it snowed just 2 weeks ago in many places

Very few low level areas saw any snow, I think it was mostly confined to high ground in parts of the west and the Wicklow Mountains. I know eastern parts of England and Scotland as well as parts of Northern Ireland got low level snow about 2 weeks ago but there was very few reports of snow here in Ireland, and any that I saw was shot from fairly high ground/hilly areas. The vast majority of us are still waiting to see the first flakes of winter. Hopefully we will all have seen something by the end of the 1st week of January but right now the charts aren't providing much confidence with downgrade after downgrade since yesterday morning.

arctictree · 17-12-2020 3:42pm

I'd say once every 10 years for a major snow event countrywide.

In my location (Roundwood), that drops to once in every 3 or 4 years. But it seems to come in spurts. We had a lot of snow events in 2009 and 2010. And two in 2018.

FI generally shows what is possible. And at this time of year a number of very cold charts are showing amidst lots of mild ones...

Slashermcguirk · 17-12-2020 5:02pm

I agree to a point but it was the same pretty much here as UK in that only certain places got the snow. I have colleagues who live in Donegal, Mayo and Leitrim who all seemed to get snow and none of them are on 'higher ground'. I think it was very much a north western snow event in the case of Ireland, rather like certain parts of Scotland saw it but the likes of Edinburgh and Glasgow got next to nothing.

Let's just hope that we get a nice spell of snow between Christmas and New year. I still wouldnt trust any charts before Sunday.

Gonzo wrote: »

Very few low level areas saw any snow, I think it was mostly confined to high ground in parts of the west and the Wicklow Mountains. I know eastern parts of England and Scotland as well as parts of Northern Ireland got low level snow about 2 weeks ago but there was very few reports of snow here in Ireland, and any that I saw was shot from fairly high ground/hilly areas. The vast majority of us are still waiting to see the first flakes of winter. Hopefully we will all have seen something by the end of the 1st week of January but right now the charts aren't providing much confidence with downgrade after downgrade since yesterday morning.

Meteorite58 · 18-12-2020 12:08am

A bit far away to be certain but ECM currently showing quite wintry weather next Tuesday into Weds ( after a general cooling down from the weekend ), wet sleety mix, snow possible on more elevated ground , frontal rain bands giving possible sleet and snow on the leading edge as it moves into cold air. Model predictions are changeable in the track of LP's. Will be interesting, not the powdery type if we get snow, more like the heavy wet type and on higher ground but more seasonal anyway. Some very cold day time temperatures showing up for next week and some sharp frosts. ECM showing a very cold Christmas Day but at the moment little precipitation.

Cold week next week from the GFS and wintry also at times would reckon, more so Northern counties, plenty of interest in there, not the cold charts of a few days ago but could just get the right combination of cold air position and a slider low and hey presto !!

That's an interesting set up just after Christmas, later Stephens day into Sunday if we got weather like that, would prove quite wintry. Might not look like that tomorrow but the trend in general is cold and wintry for a start.

nacho libre · 18-12-2020 12:47am

The GFS pub run up to its old tricks. If it has not Modelled that low off the
US correctly, we could well see a much different GFS in subsequent runs. Although to be fair the UKMO is showing something similar. Based on this run the chances of snow for some of us have increased over the holiday period, but it could well have changed by the morning

Villain · 18-12-2020 8:54am

Who started the rollercoaster??

Some very interesting model updates this morning with some very interesting model watching ahead but it could go several ways.

ninebeanrows · 18-12-2020 10:10am

Some festive cheer from the GFS this morning I see!

The evolution from 156-192h looks very strange though, with the low heights just drained out of Greenland and Labrador, and the Atlantic high retrogressing northwest.

Would certainly be an interesting time ahead if it verified.

Big Freeze, Brexit, COVID Lockdown all rolled into one, Kermit-de-Frog will be loving life!

ninebeanrows · 18-12-2020 10:12am

240h from GFS is one for the notebook

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arctictree · 18-12-2020 10:40am

arctictree wrote: »

Here's one for this thread! GFS 0z for early new years eve:

I'm just requoting my post from yesterday. One day on and the GFS 0z is still showing a snow day....

Villain · 18-12-2020 11:42am

That'll do pig that'll do

Humberto Salazar · 18-12-2020 11:44am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

240h from GFS is one for the notebook

If it's there at 120, sleds out. I'll wait till then, how often we get disappointed.

Gonzo · 18-12-2020 11:57am

This cold spell first showed up about 2 weeks ago in the GFS for a few days, then got shelved and introduced again earlier in the week only to be downgraded to almost nothing yesterday and now we are back again. Likely to be many more changes before then. We also need the ECM and GEM to be singing from the same hymn sheet as time get's closer.

KingdomRushed · 18-12-2020 12:09pm

First post in many months: why? because i have to say, I really like what I am seeing on the weather models at the moment. Probabilities increasing on a cold spell on offer for final days of the year now! This morning's GFS and this morning's control run further iterations on a trend evident now in the output.

nacho libre · 18-12-2020 1:19pm

The GFS is excellent. Although it could easily go wrong, because it relies on the low out of Canada playing ball, most time they do not and the high will end up being suppressed

I think given the complex set up, we could end up with a half house situation between the various models. So it could turn out to be up cool with mixed wintry precipitation rather than precipitation being mainly snow. I really wish the latest GFS run was now at 72 hours.

Gonzo · 18-12-2020 2:54pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The GFS is excellent. Although it could easily go wrong, because it relies on the low out of Canada playing ball, most time they do not and the high will end up being suppressed

I think given the complex set up, we could end up with a half house situation between the various models. So it could turn out to be up cool with mixed wintry precipitation rather than precipitation being mainly snow. I really wish the latest GFS run was now at 72 hours.

yep it can go wrong very easily for us, doesn't take much adjustment. It could easily just push south-westwards across Europe from Scandinavia through the low countries and France and down into Spain and Portugal, missing us completely and left in no mans land. This is still 10 days away so can change several times or disappear completely. As ever cold spells at the extended range of the models have to be taken with a pinch of salt until 2 or 3 days beforehand. No doubt if this was predicting a mild run it would verify much more smoothly.

Storm 10 · 18-12-2020 4:11pm

Some snow in the US this man was lucky

https://news.sky.com/story/storm-gail-new-york-man-rescued-after-10-hours-trapped-in-his-car-under-4ft-of-snow-12166279

Kermit.de.frog · 18-12-2020 5:26pm

Everybody just try to remain calm!

Rebelbrowser · 18-12-2020 5:30pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Everybody just try to remain calm!

I sense you might be opening a thread soon....

Artane2002 · 18-12-2020 5:50pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I sense you might be opening a thread soon....

that will be the death knell of the potential cold spell!!

the chart Kermit posted shows a 1000 hPa difference between Norway and Greenland, which is interesting to look at. hopefully the GFS is onto something as that's three runs in a row showing a Greenland high... the GFS is apparently good at picking out Greenland highs but I wouldn't know.

Villain · 18-12-2020 5:50pm

Can I please have one ticket for the Rollercoaster, I am getting on

Fitzo123 · 18-12-2020 5:51pm

To my untrained eye, that looks 2010 esque...

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST