How long before Irish reunification?

RobMc59 · 21-06-2019 9:22am

10-15 years

I read this interesting article on how people in Northern Ireland's views are changing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-northern-ireland-48702235

Tokyo · 26-06-2019 4:53pm

Mod: Moved from PC > CA. Please note that the CA charter now applies.

_Kaiser_ · 27-06-2019 8:13am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Poll makes the assumption that people in the Republic want this

The OP is well known to be in favour of the idea - as is his right to be fair.

In reality, as many others have said and I have previously as well, it's a romanticised fantasy that would look very different in reality.

The cost, the security and policing issues (it's not like the hardline unionists would shrug and say "oh well!"), the employment problem that would arise, the differences in local services, healthcare, taxation etc would be huge.

But the biggest problem? Look at all the fundamental problems we have here now - housing, health, cost of living, endless waste, incompetence and corruption in politics etc.. How would we deal with the above issues, and why on earth would anyone want to join that.

Best option as someone suggested really would be an independent state with EU membership. It's probably the best compromise.

facehugger99 · 27-06-2019 8:52am

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Best option as someone suggested really would be an independent state with EU membership. It's probably the best compromise.

Won't work unless the EU step in as a replacement sugar-daddy - which I doubt they would. NI is a €10 billion a year black hole, where a third of the population work in the public service.

The Assembly's only job is to dole out the subvention that mother England gift them every year - and they're too dysfunctional to even manage that. Now imagine them trying to raise their own revenues to fund the place.

Best option (for us and them) is continued membership of the UK - the turkeys up there aren't going to vote for Christmas and any meaningful polls in the Republic(that include costs) have shown a large majority opposed to unification.

_Kaiser_ · 27-06-2019 9:15am

facehugger99 wrote: »

Won't work unless the EU step in as a replacement sugar-daddy - which I doubt they would. NI is a €10 billion a year black hole, where a third of the population work in the public service.

The Assembly's only job is to dole out the subvention that mother England gift them every year - and they're too dysfunctional to even manage that. Now imagine them trying to raise their own revenues to fund the place.

Best option (for us and them) is continued membership of the UK - the turkeys up there aren't going to vote for Christmas and any meaningful polls in the Republic(that include costs) have shown a large majority opposed to unification.

Fair points, but I can't see Westminster continuing to fund indefinitely - especially if Brexit does actually happen in the end. If nothing else the whole thing has exposed the serious divisions within the Conservatives. Who knows what Boris might do?

The worst thing that could happen is that they decide to get rid of the headache and the Republic gets caught up in a romanticised nationalist fantasy encouraged by opportunistic local parties (to deflect from the issues at home) and agree to take it on.

FrancieBrady · 27-06-2019 9:18am

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Fair points, but I can't see Westminster continuing to fund indefinitely - especially if Brexit does actually happen in the end. If nothing else the whole thing has exposed the serious divisions within the Conservatives. Who knows what Boris might do?

The worst thing that could happen is that they decide to get rid of the headache and the Republic gets caught up in a romanticised nationalist fantasy encouraged by opportunistic local parties (to deflect from the issues at home) and agree to take it on.

I think it is out of Westminster's hands now. That is the gamechanger.

You are looking at the slow break-up of the UK, with it being even Stevens on who will sever first - Scotland or northern Ireland.

Westminster is powerless to stop it.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-06-2019 9:19am

10-15 years

I’ve often wondered what all those civil servants up there actually do?
Is it work related directly to NI or is it departmental stuff for mainland UK?
Anyone know?

Dyr · 27-06-2019 9:35am

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Fair points, but I can't see Westminster continuing to fund indefinitely - especially if Brexit does actually happen in the end. If nothing else the whole thing has exposed the serious divisions within the Conservatives. Who knows what Boris might do?

The worst thing that could happen is that they decide to get rid of the headache and the Republic gets caught up in a romanticised nationalist fantasy encouraged by opportunistic local parties (to deflect from the issues at home) and agree to take it on.

I've read some mad stuff in my time, but that's impressive. The Tories are going to voluntarily dump the North? Not withstanding the question of why would they kickstart the break up of the UK, how would they do it without the consent of a majority of voters in the North?

Boxing.Fan · 27-06-2019 10:23am

20-30 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Won't work unless the EU step in as a replacement sugar-daddy - which I doubt they would. NI is a €10 billion a year black hole, where a third of the population work in the public service.

The Assembly's only job is to dole out the subvention that mother England gift them every year - and they're too dysfunctional to even manage that. Now imagine them trying to raise their own revenues to fund the place.

Best option (for us and them) is continued membership of the UK - the turkeys up there aren't going to vote for Christmas and any meaningful polls in the Republic(that include costs) have shown a large majority opposed to unification.

Where can I see these meaningful polls you mentioned ?

FrancieBrady · 27-06-2019 10:28am

Boxing.Fan wrote: »

Where can I see these meaningful polls you mentioned ?

'Meaningful' = anything that aligns with my own feelings on the matter'

ancapailldorcha · 27-06-2019 10:35am

Bambi wrote: »

I've read some mad stuff in my time, but that's impressive. The Tories are going to voluntarily dump the North? Not withstanding the question of why would they kickstart the break up of the UK, how would they do it without the consent of a majority of voters in the North?

The Tories don't give a toss for the North. Ditto for Labour, especially with Corbyn or someone like him set to become PM in the medium term. Less so now that Arlene has stuck her oar in with Brexit. It's a deficit for the UK that numerous PM's including Thatcher, Wilson and Churchill have wanted to be rid of. They just need an acceptable pretense to sell to the public for dumping it that can't be applied to Scotland.

facehugger99 · 27-06-2019 11:22am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'Meaningful' = anything that aligns with my own feelings on the matter'

Meaningful = a poll that includes the cost implications.

I believe you've been provided with the relevant links previously Francie.

facehugger99 · 27-06-2019 11:26am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’ve often wondered what all those civil servants up there actually do?
Is it work related directly to NI or is it departmental stuff for mainland UK?
Anyone know?

Layers of bureaucracy and paper pushers. I've worked up there for years and it's quite obvious that inefficiencies are built into the system to keep PS numbers high.

I've gone to meetings that have had 8-9 people from the local authority present with 2 people contributing and 6 people sitting there doing "something".

Makes the Republic's public service look dynamic, efficient and streamlined which is really saying something

BarryD2 · 27-06-2019 11:27am

Deleted User wrote: »

.... how long do you think it will be before Ireland is reunified?

God loves a trier. How many times can the same question be asked?

How about building a few bridges up north, find common ground and agreement going forwards. Forget all this border poll nonsense.

If we've learnt anything from recent referendums, it's that you have to bring the majority of the citizens with you.

BarryD2 · 27-06-2019 11:29am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I’ve often wondered what all those civil servants up there actually do?
Is it work related directly to NI or is it departmental stuff for mainland UK?
Anyone know?

Keeps the peace - part of the British strategy to end the troubles. Gives employment and gets people invested in the future peace. Simple and effective policy, even if it comes with a bill.

Jupiter Mulligan · 27-06-2019 11:35am

30-40 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think it is out of Westminster's hands now. That is the gamechanger.

You are looking at the slow break-up of the UK, with it being even Stevens on who will sever first - Scotland or northern Ireland.

Westminster is powerless to stop it.

That's grand.

So NI and/or Scotland both vote to secede from the UK and to set themselves up as independent nations.

Then, when that's all been sorted out, the Republic of Northern Ireland can approach the Republic of Ireland and ask us how much will it cost them to join up.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-06-2019 11:36am

10-15 years

BarryD2 wrote: »

Keeps the peace - part of the British strategy to end the troubles. Gives employment and gets people invested in the future peace. Simple and effective policy, even if it comes with a bill.

Saw some figures recently too that the EU pumps about €6 billion(I think?) a year into NI for all kinds of projects, most of them seem to be as you say, peace projects and cross community efforts and the likes. Which is brilliant.
Peace is big business up there it seems

Arlene again only yesterday outright lying about the state of play in Brexit and blaming Dublin and saying nobody in NI supports the backstop despite all evidence to the contrary.

The elecotorate up there are going to react harshly once brexit lands and it’ll be square on the DUP the hammer will fall.

The extremes up there are the only voices you ever hear. There’s a far bigger and growing appetite among the middle ground for a UI than we’d think. Especially in light of the oncoming cliff edge of brexit.

If it came to it I think it would be a slightly harder sell down here than it would be up there.

BarryD2 · 27-06-2019 11:41am

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

The extremes up there are the only voices you ever hear. There’s a far bigger and growing appetite among the middle ground for a UI than we’d think. Especially in light of the oncoming cliff edge of brexit.

If it came to it I think it would be a slightly harder sell down here than it would be up there.

Yeah, but you can never underestimate the influence of tribal politics up north. Even people who are perfectly reasonable decent citizens, will tend one way or the other when push comes to shove.

Which is why the only long term hope is to bring the communities closer together, find common ground and put aside things (for a generation or two) that divide, like language rights for example.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-06-2019 11:43am

10-15 years

BarryD2 wrote: »

Yeah, but you can never underestimate the influence of tribal politics up north. Even people who are perfectly reasonable decent citizens, will tend one way or the other when push comes to shove.

Which is why the only long term hope is to bring the communities closer together, find common ground and put aside things (for a generation or two) that divide, like language rights for example.

Well it’ll take the DUP to keep doing their thing, disillusioning and lying to their base for that to happen. And it is happening.

Great to see the coming on of the alliance party as an alternative. Far more level headed by most accounts. More of them please on both sides.

Jupiter Mulligan · 27-06-2019 11:52am

30-40 years

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Great to see the coming on of the alliance party as an alternative. Far more level headed by most accounts. More of them please on both sides.

Seemingly, the recent 'success' of Alliance was due, to a large extent, to voters from both sides of the sectarian divide voting tactically in constituencies where they knew that their preferred candidate couldn't win.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-06-2019 11:55am

10-15 years

Jupiter Mulligan wrote: »

Seemingly, the recent 'success' of Alliance was due, to a large extent, to voters from both sides of the sectarian divide voting tactically in constituencies where they knew that their preferred candidate couldn't win.

That’s brilliant to hear. Especially when it comes to people using their vote and finding out the bet way to do it. Healthy democracy at work.

Jupiter Mulligan · 27-06-2019 12:00pm

30-40 years

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

That’s brilliant to hear. Especially when it comes to people using their vote and finding out the bet way to do it. Healthy democracy at work.

It's grand in council (and European) elections, but it's hard to see it working as well in the (carefully gerrymandered) NIA or Westminster constituencies.

Although hopefully I'm wrong.

FrancieBrady · 27-06-2019 12:03pm

facehugger99 wrote: »

Meaningful = a poll that includes the cost implications.

I believe you've been provided with the relevant links previously Francie.

No...nobody has properly costed it yet. It cannot be until we know what it actually costs to run.

And despite the quoting of anything from 8 billion to 12 billion (depending on how anti the notion of a UI you are, apparently) nobody knows the full breakdown. We simply don't know how much of that nebulous figure would transfer across.

I believe this has been demonstrated to you before.

27-06-2019 12:20pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think it is out of Westminster's hands now. That is the gamechanger.

You are looking at the slow break-up of the UK, with it being even Stevens on who will sever first - Scotland or northern Ireland.

Westminster is powerless to stop it.

while unthinkable, it most certainly is in Westminster's hands and they can stop it.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-06-2019 12:22pm

10-15 years

With all available evidence in a post brexit scenario I’d say Westminster would only be too happy to be rid of NI but they’ll fight tooth and nail to stop Scottish independence.

FrancieBrady · 27-06-2019 12:43pm

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

With all available evidence in a post brexit scenario I’d say Westminster would only be too happy to be rid of NI but they’ll fight tooth and nail to stop Scottish independence.

Of course some will fight tooth and nail, but the point is they won't be able to stop it if the people decide.

facehugger99 · 27-06-2019 12:48pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

No...nobody has properly costed it yet. It cannot be until we know what it actually costs to run.

And despite the quoting of anything from 8 billion to 12 billion (depending on how anti the notion of a UI you are, apparently) nobody knows the full breakdown. We simply don't know how much of that nebulous figure would transfer across.

I believe this has been demonstrated to you before.

Meh.

We know it will cost several billions per annum - that's enough to scupper the idea for the vast majority of the Republic's voters.

Stop moaning ffs · 27-06-2019 12:50pm

10-15 years

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of course some will fight tooth and nail, but the point is they won't be able to stop it if the people decide.

If Boris fails to deliver brexit (likely) he might well be the last PM of the United Kingdom. And having failed at brexit will never allow Scotland independence.
The Scots have to ask for permission from him and Parliament to run that referendum remember. No way will he allow it.

Sickened and somehow laughing at Cameron’s ‘stronger together’ nonsense during the last independence referendum.

The hypocrisy.

Dyr · 27-06-2019 1:35pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The Tories don't give a toss for the North. Ditto for Labour, especially with Corbyn or someone like him set to become PM in the medium term. Less so now that Arlene has stuck her oar in with Brexit. It's a deficit for the UK that numerous PM's including Thatcher, Wilson and Churchill have wanted to be rid of. They just need an acceptable pretense to sell to the public for dumping it that can't be applied to Scotland.

Aside from the fact, that the Tories might not care for the North but they care quite a bit about the Union, the same question applies: How do the Tories "dump" the North without the consent of the North?

Simple stuff lads.

RobMc59 · 27-06-2019 1:42pm

10-15 years

Bambi wrote: »

Aside from the fact, that the Tories might not care for the North but they care quite a bit about the Union, the same question applies: How do the Tories "dump" the North without the consent of the North?

Simple stuff lads.

The idea of a UI is good on paper but unless someone is willing to finance it I can't see much appetite for even higher taxes in Ireland-the EU has it's own issues with the rise of right wing political groups and I can't see the US willing to shoulder the financial commitment but who knows-certainly not in the next decade imo.

James Brown · 27-06-2019 2:00pm

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Meh.

We know it will cost several billions per annum - that's enough to scupper the idea for the vast majority of the Republic's voters.

Don't underestimate the apathy of the Irish voter. With Irish Water, e-voting machines, bond holder bailouts, the children's hospital and broadband plan they are use to getting rode and seeing money wasted, it's par for the course with FG and FF.
This is for a United Ireland, slight difference. What will Phil Hogan threaten us again, with what crappy services, tough to get a house, record breaking numbers of children homeless? :rolleyes:
TBF, you can be assured of one thing, only one section of Irish society ever suffers and that goes for Brexit, that's the working middle to low income tax payer. In short at least we'd get a United Ireland for our troubles, no pun intended.

Also do you think no FF'er or FG'er would want the legacy of being the man/woman responsible for uniting Ireland? They'd be crawling on top of each other for the chance because that person will be an Irish legend who's family will sit in the Dail for generations.
Leo would even get himself a little pair of Aran socks ffs...

facehugger99 · 27-06-2019 2:12pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Also do you think no FF'er or FG'er would want the legacy of being the man/woman responsible for uniting Ireland? They'd be crawling on top of each other for the chance because that person will be an Irish legend who's family will sit in the Dail for generations.
Leo would even get himself a little pair of Aran socks ffs...

Thankfully such a decision won't come down to an individual politician.

James Brown · 27-06-2019 2:36pm

10-15 years

facehugger99 wrote: »

Thankfully such a decision won't come down to an individual politician.

The glory will be sought by individual politicians, all of them, combined.
It would also be the highest voter turn out ever.

ancapailldorcha · 27-06-2019 2:39pm

Bambi wrote: »

Aside from the fact, that the Tories might not care for the North but they care quite a bit about the Union, the same question applies: How do the Tories "dump" the North without the consent of the North?

Simple stuff lads.

The North has no capacity to force the rest of the UK to do anything as far as I can see.

Conservatives profess to care about the union but that's all show as far as I'm concerned. If they did, they would postpone Brexit until consensus can be reached. Brexit happened because England voted for it. That makes Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales satellite states even if the latter voted for it. The union is dead in all but name.

The ERG like keeping the DUP around so they can hide under Arlene's skirt and duck responsibility. Beyond that, they'd be happy to kick NI into touch.

Berserker · 27-06-2019 2:40pm

facehugger99 wrote: »

We know it will cost several billions per annum - that's enough to scupper the idea for the vast majority of the Republic's voters.

£26bn to be exact. The BBC had a programme about the state finances in NI and where the money goes recently. £26bn will keep NI running, as is, every year.

RobMc59 wrote: »

The idea of a UI is good on paper but unless someone is willing to finance it I can't see much appetite for even higher taxes in Ireland-the EU has it's own issues with the rise of right wing political groups and I can't see the US willing to shoulder the financial commitment but who knows-certainly not in the next decade imo.

Why is it good on paper?

Greyfox · 27-06-2019 2:48pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

It would also be the highest voter turn out ever.

Nonsense, a UI as it currently stands is fairytale stuff. people have better things to be doing than voting for fairytales.

FrancieBrady · 27-06-2019 2:53pm

Berserker wrote: »

£26bn to be exact. The BBC had a programme about the state finances in NI and where the money goes recently. £26bn will keep NI running, as is, every year.

Why is it good on paper?

What the, to be perfectly honest, utter economic basket costs currently is not the point. The point will be, what it will cost to run it as part of a UI and how long it will be until it is contributing as other regions contribute and how much better off/worse we are as a bigger country.
A significant part of that will be not how much better off/worse off we are economically but socially.
The people will be asked to invest. And I don't think for one second they will turn the idea down and neither do Unionists - they will do their level best to stop it going to a vote.

markodaly · 27-06-2019 2:57pm

In short at least we'd get a United Ireland for our troubles, no pun intended.

Yes because when all else fails, we can fall back on primitive nationalism.

RobMc59 · 27-06-2019 3:05pm

10-15 years

Berserker wrote: »

£26bn to be exact. The BBC had a programme about the state finances in NI and where the money goes recently. £26bn will keep NI running, as is, every year.

Why is it good on paper?

In theory it sounds a good idea and looks good on a political parties manifesto as does the idea of brexit to a fairly large number of Britons but in the cold light of day they're both expensive undertakings which will probably financially destroy the UK in the case of Brexit and a UI is financially unobtainable for Ireland at this time.

James Brown · 27-06-2019 3:17pm

10-15 years

Greyfox wrote: »

Nonsense, a UI as it currently stands is fairytale stuff. people have better things to be doing than voting for fairytales.

The idea was put forward that any vote for it mightn't get much traction. Of course we've more urgent issues, the way we do business ensures it. There'll be something to blame the next crash on after we pass Brexit and the upcoming one.
Simply put the tax payer always gets milked either way. Or do you think Leo would tackle the myriad crises but for, I dunno, let's say Brexit?

markodaly wrote: »

Yes because when all else fails, we can fall back on primitive nationalism.

No, we'll have something to show other than a mystery hole where millions, (billions?) go with every official elected or otherwise going 'Nobody told me' with a shrug of the shoulders.

markodaly · 27-06-2019 3:36pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

No, we'll have something to show other than a mystery hole where millions, (billions?) go with every official elected or otherwise going 'Nobody told me' with a shrug of the shoulders.

Which is what exactly?

The rest of the post is just jibberish, can't make head nor tails of it.

gibgodsman · 27-06-2019 3:39pm

It will never happen, there is just far to much to change to make it work. They are 2 very different countries, as much as we don't like to admit it

James Brown · 27-06-2019 3:40pm

10-15 years

markodaly wrote: »

Which is what exactly?

The rest of the post is just jibberish, can't make head nor tails of it.

A united Ireland chief.

Tax payer will be rode either way. Telling the taxpayer a UI will be costly will mean little IMO.

Strumms · 27-06-2019 3:40pm

It is a case that the English, Scottish and Welch, for the most part wouldn’t care if it sunk into the sea tomorrow. A lot of people down here also would be a bit cautious of the attitudes and actions of certain cross section of the community up there.

The ‘War’ might be over but there is still in ingrained attitude as to what people feel they may be ‘entitled to’. Unionists and loyalists would be up in arms with a United Ireland. You could throw money at them and indeed security down AND up the length and breadth of the country but for a long time you’ll just be unable to flick that switch in their head. You could have a Union Jack side by side a tricolor at each and every government/state building the length and breadth of the country. The only question from them will be why is there a tri color there..

The ordinary Unionist is just like you and me, with a different belief system when it comes to politics but the likes of the hardcore , DUP, politicized and other ‘hardcore’ loyalists it’s hate. They are not wired like others.

James Brown · 27-06-2019 3:41pm

10-15 years

gibgodsman wrote: »

It will never happen, there is just far to much to change to make it work. They are 2 very different countries, as much as we don't like to admit it

N.I. isn't a country and some of it's counties are already in the republic.

irish_goat · 27-06-2019 3:43pm

10-15 years

The north is a basket case because London doesn't care about it. The cost of keeping it running will drastically decrease after reunification as we'll become a normal, functioning economy. On top of that, the UK will still continue to subsidise here as it's in their longterm financial interest to be rid of us and the EU will throw plenty of money our way, particularly in the context of Brexit.

facehugger99 · 27-06-2019 3:50pm

irish_goat wrote: »

The north is a basket case because London doesn't care about it. The cost of keeping it running will drastically decrease after reunification as we'll become a normal, functioning economy. On top of that, the UK will still continue to subsidise here as it's in their longterm financial interest to be rid of us and the EU will throw plenty of money our way, particularly in the context of Brexit.

Will the unicorns fart rainbows too?

irish_goat · 27-06-2019 3:53pm

10-15 years

Berserker wrote: »

Why is it good on paper?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/united-irish-economy-could-deliver-boost-of-36bn-388959.html

Berserker · 27-06-2019 4:19pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

A significant part of that will be not how much better off/worse off we are economically but socially.

Please elaborate. What social benefits would it bring and how are they going to help people with their daily lives?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The people will be asked to invest. And I don't think for one second they will turn the idea down and neither do Unionists - they will do their level best to stop it going to a vote.

The people in the RoI have been asked to invest in a few things over the last few years and they haven't warmed to the idea.

RobMc59 wrote: »

In theory it sounds a good idea and looks good on a political parties manifesto as does the idea of brexit to a fairly large number of Britons but in the cold light of day they're both expensive undertakings which will probably financially destroy the UK in the case of Brexit and a UI is financially unobtainable for Ireland at this time.

It's perfect for a political party manifesto for sure. The RoI is booming at the moment, if we look at the state coffers and a UI is financially unobtainable at this time. Taking these two factors into account, it's very hard to imagine when it would be viable. The RoI has a few generations worth of debt to pay off before it could every consider a UI.

Greyfox · 27-06-2019 4:44pm

Matt Barrett wrote: »

A united Ireland chief.

Tax payer will be rode either way. Telling the taxpayer a UI will be costly will mean little IMO.

It will matter if people think there just voting for a romantic feeling. What do Irish people actually gain from a UI other then a romantic feeling?

How long before Irish reunification?

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