Drought/Low Rainfall Watch - Summer 2018

Calibos · 02-07-2018 10:33pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Is it impossible or at least highly unlikely that this dry spell could last unbroken till September/October? I know that in past "normal" years Septembers have often been drier/sunnier than the summer months. So if that were to happen this year we would really be in deep trouble.

Unlikely. Even the legendary Summer of 1995 ended late August or very early September IIRC.

Funny Story. For a good number of years in the early 90's, Bray Summer Fest had been lashed out of it during its usual mid July schedule, so they decided to move it to late August or early September seeing as we always seemed to get an Indian Summer back then. The year they decided to make the change was...you guessed it 1995! Incredible weather for the week around mid July when the Festival would usually have been on and the week they moved it to?? The week that the heavens finally opened ending the 1995 drought. LOL

They moved the Festival back to mid July the following year and ever since.

I'm hoping the weather doesn't break on the 28th or 29th of July this year. Thats Bray Airshow weekend and the Red Arrows are back. We have been incredibly lucky in Bray as I don't think a single Airshow has been rained on to any great degree since its inception over 12 years ago. I think even last year when it rained up to show time, I remember telling people heading up off the seafront not to worry, that boards and the Satellite imagery and rain radar confirmed the rain would stop and clouds disappear before the start of the show and thats exactly what happened.

Calibos · 02-07-2018 10:43pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

The last of the green patches disappearing in the estate here this morning

There's some random places around the town where the grass is still fully green though, can't imagine its all being watered so don't know why some areas are faring so much worse than others. Must be just soil with better water retention I'd guess?

Do you know the way the snow showed the Guards all the local 'Grow Houses' because all that heat from the heat lamps in the attics would melt the snow off the roof??

Well what if the lush green patches around the country could give Irish Water a clue to where a lot of the water leaks are??

Rougies · 02-07-2018 11:44pm

Somebody was asking earlier if the browning of the grass is visible on satellite. It definitely is.

I didn't use today's sat pic because the image seem was over the eastern half of the country where the browning is most visible.

Notable here is the change between the 24th - 29th of June, the days with the hottest temperatures. The Carlow/Kilkenny/Laois area in particular took a hit.

blanch152 · 03-07-2018 12:15am

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Is it impossible or at least highly unlikely that this dry spell could last unbroken till September/October? I know that in past "normal" years Septembers have often been drier/sunnier than the summer months. So if that were to happen this year we would really be in deep trouble.

We are assuming that like in 1976 and 1995 that the weather pattern changes are only temporary.

If they are more permanent (and I am not suggesting they are) we would end up as a colder but equally as dry Lanzarote.

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2018 3:29am

SeaBreezes wrote: »

And an unnatural interest in the weather as a national pastime! :-D

we have that, maybe more of a natural interest given the life-threatening nature of our climate ... :pac:

cyclops999 · 03-07-2018 9:17am

Just reading this morning 01/07/2016 was the Highest record flood level on Lough Ree at 4.412m, this mornings reading its 2.118m.

Elmer Blooker · 03-07-2018 10:45am

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Is it impossible or at least highly unlikely that this dry spell could last unbroken till September/October? I know that in past "normal" years Septembers have often been drier/sunnier than the summer months. So if that were to happen this year we would really be in deep trouble.

Even beyond September/October? You wouldn't know with this deep solar minimum.
In 1666 during the Maunder Minimum a hot summer caused the Great Fire of London, within a few months (winter 1666-7) the Thames was frozen so obviously a very prolonged blocked pattern. It is generally believed that summers were poor during the 17th and 18th centuries but there were hot summers and prolonged droughts. You never know with the way the sun is behaving? Still blank ........ Sryan?
http://spaceweather.com/images2018/03jul18/hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=0on8egnlmu3u64pf1gcfg5d484

PS. The 1798 Rebellion in Ireland took place during a very hot summer according to historical records, winter 1798-9 was very severe and that was during the later Dalton Minimum so again a very prolonged blocked pattern.

sryanbruen · 03-07-2018 12:15pm

As I promised to Slashermcguirk, here are Dublin Airport's top 10 driest May/June combinations since its records began in 1941.

Rank|Rainfall total (mm)|Year
1.|44.8|1970
2.|50.5|1944
3.|58.3|1975
4.|60.8|1995
5.|62.7|1949
6.|64.4|1978
7.|70.0|1956
8.|70.2|1976
9.|70.4|1950
10.|72.0|1961

2018: 23.9mm

So 2018 smashed the previous driest May/June combination record to pieces at Dublin Airport!

All data comes from Met Éireann.

Oscar Bravo · 03-07-2018 12:51pm

tabby aspreme · 03-07-2018 2:47pm

My 0H is one of the organizers of a girls mini rugby introductory camp in the local club, last night she bought twenty water pistols , filled them at home with water from our own well and another 20 litre can, and brought them to the camp for the kids to have a bit of fun. One 'buzz kill' parent started to lecture her on water wastage and wouldn't back down when she was told it was from a private supply

Cork Boy 53 · 03-07-2018 3:02pm

Seems that some parts may actually see a few showers over the next day or two. Not that they will do anything to ease the drought situation.

Graces7 · 03-07-2018 3:18pm

tabby aspreme wrote: »

My 0H is one of the organizers of a girls mini rugby introductory camp in the local club, last night she bought twenty water pistols , filled them at home with water from our own well and another 20 litre can, and brought them to the camp for the kids to have a bit of fun. One 'buzz kill' parent started to lecture her on water wastage and wouldn't back down when she was told it was from a private supply

Oh DEAR!

Had that been me, the buzz kill lady would have got VERY wet indeed.

hinault · 03-07-2018 4:57pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Seems that some parts may actually see a few showers over the next day or two. Not that they will do anything to ease the drought situation.

I don't mean to rain on the parade, but Yr weather forecast website early last week was forecasting rain for Sunday, for today, and for tomorrow, here.

There wasn't a cloud in the sky on Sunday, nor today, and presumably nor tomorrow either.

I'd dearly love to see this weather changing, but...............

cute geoge · 03-07-2018 6:05pm

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Seems that some parts may actually see a few showers over the next day or two. Not that they will do anything to ease the drought situation.

Tv3 just now are giving some showers for tomorrow evening in the south

sryanbruen · 03-07-2018 6:08pm

Sunshine totals (hours) for Irish stations from the 21st June-2nd July 2018.

And the very sunny conditions are back. Malin Head recorded 16.2 hours of sunshine yesterday, probably among Ireland's sunniest days ever recorded for the third time during this spell.

Dublin Airport doing excellent well into first place and Casement Aerodrome in second place.

This table is getting too long!

Station|21 Jun|22 Jun|23 Jun|24 Jun|25 Jun|26 Jun|27 Jun|28 Jun|29 Jun|30 Jun|1 Jul|2 Jul|Total
Belmullet|12.7|13.6|14.2|15.8|14.0|11.2|15.4|15.9|15.3|9.5|3.0|10.1|150.7
Casement Aerodrome|14.1|15.8|13.4|14.8|10.7|9.8|12.8|15.8|15.8|15.5|12.3|15.2|166.0
Cork Airport|13.2|15.7|14.8|14.9|11.7|11.8|15.5|15.7|15.5|12.1|6.7|12.2|159.8
Dublin Airport|12.9|15.6|14.4|15.6|12.5|11.3|13.8|15.9|15.8|15.5|14.0|15.8|173.1
Gurteen|8.1|14.7|15.5|15.9|11.0|12.2|13.7|15.8|15.9|13.6|6.2|14.8|157.4
Johnstown Castle|2.9|15.8|15.5|5.6|14.0|11.6|15.9|15.5|15.8|15.6|8.1|13.9|150.2
Knock Airport|10.8|10.9|13.7|16.0|12.6|10.7|14.7|15.2|15.3|11.2|0.2|15.3|146.6
Malin Head|12.7|10.9|12.6|15.2|14.8|8.4|16.4|16.5|5.9|13.7|0.1|16.2|143.4
Shannon Airport|13.3|15.1|15.6|15.2|10.5|13.3|14.7|15.5|15.4|11.7|8.2|14.7|163.2
Valentia Observatory|12.3|15.3|15.5|15.5|11.1|14.5|14.1|15.3|15.1|14.1|7.2|15.0|165.0

Data comes from Met Éireann.

Oneiric 3 · 03-07-2018 6:08pm

I remember we had a prolonged dry spell here in the west of Ireland back in April or May last year, and it seemed to have a bigger impact on greenery than this current spell is having locally, but maybe because there was less rainfall or something in the lead up the previous spell. I remember that it killed off a beloved fir bush that we for years out the back.

Oneiric 3 · 03-07-2018 6:10pm

Syran, how do you create those interactive charts? Very handy and very useful for allowing us to toggle through the data.

sparksfly · 03-07-2018 6:47pm

Anybody checked their well lately?
My 27 feet deep well had approx 10 feet of water last Friday, about 8 feet less than the normal July level. It hasnt gone dry in 30 years but if there is no rain till August or September, will any of them last?

tikkamark · 03-07-2018 7:11pm

sparksfly wrote: »

Anybody checked their well lately?
My 27 feet deep well had approx 10 feet of water last Friday, about 8 feet less than the normal July level. It hasnt gone dry in 30 years but if there is no rain till August or September, will any of them last?

Shallow wells are very susceptible to prolonged dry spells as there only letting in surface water for any guarantee of constant water a deep well is your only man!

sryanbruen · 03-07-2018 7:57pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Syran, how do you create those interactive charts? Very handy and very useful for allowing us to toggle through the data.

The coding to give a table on here in the way I do them is as follows:

The vertical bars represent the separation of the columns and rows.

Using the very basic input I put into my table above, this is what I come out with:

Hope that's understandable for you.

Oneiric 3 · 03-07-2018 8:31pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

The coding to give a table on here in the way I do them is as follows:

The vertical bars represent the separation of the columns and rows.

Using the very basic input I put into my table above, this is what I come out with:

Hope that's understandable for you.

Thanks very much Syran. Very handy. I'll give this a go with some data in a while.

Oneiric 3 · 03-07-2018 8:47pm

sdanseo · 03-07-2018 8:53pm

When was the last rainfall at Dublin Airport? Can't remember, I think Thursday week?

Graces7 · 03-07-2018 9:35pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I remember we had a prolonged dry spell here in the west of Ireland back in April or May last year, and it seemed to have a bigger impact on greenery than this current spell is having locally, but maybe because there was less rainfall or something in the lead up the previous spell. I remember that it killed off a beloved fir bush that we for years out the back.

Less mature growth in April./May will be affected more than sturdier June/July. Sadly almost all the promising elderberries on the tree by the door here have withered and gone to dust. The tree is trying for a second blossoming but too dry.

Keeping a wary eye on the rose hips we have in such abundance here, and the precious blackberries.

Wonder how the fruit growers eg our fine Irish apples, are faring.The strawbs got in in time.

sryanbruen · 03-07-2018 9:40pm

sdanseo wrote: »

When was the last rainfall at Dublin Airport? Can't remember, I think Thursday week?

Wednesday 20th June.

Artane2002 wrote: »

I remember a wet morning here in D5 on the 20th so it could be that.

EDIT: Yep, it was the 20th as confirmed by Oneiric 3

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

From Met Éireann for the 20th:

The day before reported a 0.1mm (probably from dew or fog) bringing the total up to 1.5mm for the period.

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Ah yes, I remember now coming out to a wet car one morning alright.

Gaoth Laidir · 04-07-2018 8:33am

THe Phoneix Park this morning.

sjb25 · 04-07-2018 9:02am

tabby aspreme wrote: »

My 0H is one of the organizers of a girls mini rugby introductory camp in the local club, last night she bought twenty water pistols , filled them at home with water from our own well and another 20 litre can, and brought them to the camp for the kids to have a bit of fun. One 'buzz kill' parent started to lecture her on water wastage and wouldn't back down when she was told it was from a private supply

Ohh the whole team would have been told to hav her soaked

sryanbruen · 04-07-2018 10:40am

Sunshine totals (hours) for Irish stations from the 21st June-3rd July 2018.

Very sunny day again over Ireland with Malin Head once again recording one of Ireland's all-time sunniest days with 16.4 hours of sun.

If Dublin Airport gets at least another 12 hours of sun today, it will have reached 200 hours of sun during this period. This has to be a near or a record breaker of a sunny spell for Ireland at this rate.

Station|21 Jun|22 Jun|23 Jun|24 Jun|25 Jun|26 Jun|27 Jun|28 Jun|29 Jun|30 Jun|1 Jul|2 Jul|3 Jul|Total
Belmullet|12.7|13.6|14.2|15.8|14.0|11.2|15.4|15.9|15.3|9.5|3.0|10.1|15.5|166.2
Casement Aerodrome|14.1|15.8|13.4|14.8|10.7|9.8|12.8|15.8|15.8|15.5|12.3|15.2|15.1|181.1
Cork Airport|13.2|15.7|14.8|14.9|11.7|11.8|15.5|15.7|15.5|12.1|6.7|12.2|15.2|175.0
Dublin Airport|12.9|15.6|14.4|15.6|12.5|11.3|13.8|15.9|15.8|15.5|14.0|15.8|15.8|188.9
Gurteen|8.1|14.7|15.5|15.9|11.0|12.2|13.7|15.8|15.9|13.6|6.2|14.8|15.5|172.9
Johnstown Castle|2.9|15.8|15.5|5.6|14.0|11.6|15.9|15.5|15.8|15.6|8.1|13.9|15.8|166.0
Knock Airport|10.8|10.9|13.7|16.0|12.6|10.7|14.7|15.2|15.3|11.2|0.2|15.3|15.1|161.7
Malin Head|12.7|10.9|12.6|15.2|14.8|8.4|16.4|16.5|5.9|13.7|0.1|16.2|16.4|159.8
Shannon Airport|13.3|15.1|15.6|15.2|10.5|13.3|14.7|15.5|15.4|11.7|8.2|14.7|15.3|178.5
Valentia Observatory|12.3|15.3|15.5|15.5|11.1|14.5|14.1|15.3|15.1|14.1|7.2|15.0|15.4|180.4

Data comes from Met Éireann.

Cantona's Collars · 04-07-2018 10:48am

The 2.9 hours on 21 June from Johnstown Castle sticks out like a sore thumb.

Dubh Geannain · 04-07-2018 12:34pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Probably soil temperature. Verges, etc., near pavements and roads will probably heat up much more than a larger lawn or green would. Once the ground temperature goes above 24 °C the grass shuts down. These browner patches most likely have been above 24 for more hours than other greener parts.

Of course retention would also be a factor alright.

That makes sense to me. I had been attributing what was seeing to a gentle slope on the lawn and therefore a moisture deficiency. My front lawn started browning at the edges touching the cobble lock which would add to the temperature of the adjacent soil. This has been slowly spreading inwards so I expect the entire lawns will brown eventually as the outer edges die and then expose the next grass stems inside.

The majority of my front lawn is still a nice green though. I've been leaving good length in it so the stems are not exposed and the blades can photosynthesize and also leaving the clippings lie since I started cutting this year as I was trying to resurrect it from a moss invasion after last year. Almost everyone else's lawn is now brown or browning due to the scalping that their lawns typically get. I know mine won't survive forever so we'll see how it ends up.

I'll try and post a pic later.

Drought/Low Rainfall Watch - Summer 2018

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