Winter 2010-2011 outlook

Gone a bit off topic to say the least..New thread?

redsunset wrote: »

Anyone know where i can get my sea surface temps for spring this year.
i used to know this,probably buried among my hundreds of bookmarks.

Found this in my bookmarks but I'm not sure if it's what you're looking for

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Su, Is the gulf stream showing any signs of slowing down or shrinking from that image you posted? I would not be able to tell myself from that.

I dunno, the March image does show a strong cold anomaly in the Gulf and up along the US east coast at that time, but since then the anomaly loop and this actual temperature loop below sould suggest that all is fine?

Right getting back to what i posted earlier, which got buried among some excellent photos by the way.

I'll repost just to refresh,

Several years ago scientists made a breakthrough when they confirmed through the use of computer models that part of this climatic memory driving the NAO lies in the deeper ocean temperatures of the Atlantic and changes in these temperatures are largely responsible for variations in the NAO. Mark Rodwell, a climate researcher at the Met Office in the United Kingdom, was one of the researchers who made the connection. Based on this earlier work, he is now using similar models to make forecasts on the sign of NAO nearly one year in advance.


“Though this is largely a statistical relationship, there is a reason behind our forecasts. The idea is that if you want to make a forecast for the winter, then you need to look at sea surface temperatures of the winter before that,” says Rodwell.

The NAO is responsible for the path of strong storms that pass across the Atlantic, and these strong storms influence the temperatures of the ocean. By the spring of each year, the NAO has left a deep mark on the temperatures of the Atlantic.

During the summer, these ocean temperatures are largely preserved because a relatively thin layer of water heated by the sun covers the ocean beneath like a thermal blanket.

When the following winter rolls around, the warm layer is removed, revealing the sea temperatures from the previous spring, which in turn affect air pressure over the Atlantic and the next NAO.

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Ok so i look at the line of cold anomaly through the azores into maderia toward the mediterranean region on this years april 4 2010 chart.

This looks to be how the winter Nao affected this area by becoming negative and pushing the jet stream south.

This path became stormy with low pressure systems sucking the heat out of the water.

So if what the scientist says is correct,this is the sea surface temps to affect the Nao this winter.


Now looking at last years sea temps anomaly april 4 2009 that was in place to give us the strongly negative Nao we experience,what can we find?

Well pretty much the northern hemisphere is similar .

For example there's the similar ring of cold around a warm centre between asia and canada/north america,slightly different position but there.

Warmth around Greenland,however more this year.

Warmth off New York in both.

Big difference off africa and eastern South America.


So am i talking a load of sh/te here or is the situation somewhat similar.

Oh me heads gone now:D

Thoughts please.....................