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View Poll Results: What impact will the sun's deep minima have on the future climate?
Climate getting progressively cooler through next solar cycles 272 43.73%
No impact 137 22.03%
Global warming is here to stay 112 18.01%
Calm before the solar storm of 2012-2013 101 16.24%
Voters: 622. You may not vote on this poll

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05-03-2019, 20:19   #751
BLIZZARD7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bazlers View Post
I take it then Blizzard your interest in the sunspot numbers is because you believe it will effect our future weather?

Percentage wise how big an influence do you believe this to be if we are indeed heading into a deep solar minumum, and what years do you believe it will be most felt?

I'm interested in the potential link yes, The evidence is strongest for the deepest minimums and so I would like to see as quiet a minimum as possible to see any potential effect on our weather.

If this is the long and very deep minimum some believe we are just slipping into then I would expect a notable impact on our climate into the early 2020's. Winter 19/20 as the kick-off point. This would fit fairly well timing wise with the last minimum in 08/09- as Nacho Hope's above, there does seem to be a slight lag.

Next winter can hardly be anything but colder than this just gone though, I'd be taking note of anything exceptional. It won't be apparent for a few years if this is actually what is going on or if there are other factors at play. A big volcanic eruption in the next few years would make it hard to draw conclusions for example.

So yeah I'm interested to see A) are we slipping into a grand minimum? And B) What affect will this have on our climate? if any.

Hard to put a percentage on it but I would absolutely expect our climate to be notably cooler soon if we are indeed heading into a grand solar minimum. (Also interested to see how this might play out against the fact the earth is currently warming)

Last edited by BLIZZARD7; 05-03-2019 at 20:31.
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05-03-2019, 21:34   #752
bazlers
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BLIZZARD7 View Post
I'm interested in the potential link yes, The evidence is strongest for the deepest minimums and so I would like to see as quiet a minimum as possible to see any potential effect on our weather.

If this is the long and very deep minimum some believe we are just slipping into then I would expect a notable impact on our climate into the early 2020's. Winter 19/20 as the kick-off point. This would fit fairly well timing wise with the last minimum in 08/09- as Nacho Hope's above, there does seem to be a slight lag.

Next winter can hardly be anything but colder than this just gone though, I'd be taking note of anything exceptional. It won't be apparent for a few years if this is actually what is going on or if there are other factors at play. A big volcanic eruption in the next few years would make it hard to draw conclusions for example.

So yeah I'm interested to see A) are we slipping into a grand minimum? And B) What affect will this have on our climate? if any.

Hard to put a percentage on it but I would absolutely expect our climate to be notably cooler soon if we are indeed heading into a grand solar minimum. (Also interested to see how this might play out against the fact the earth is currently warming)
Thanks for reply.
It will be interesting. Is there a threshold where it is considered a grand solar minimum from a typical solar minimum. Ie. What during of time required with no sunspots or how or who classifies it?
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07-03-2019, 07:48   #753
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A little spot just popped up and broke the long spotless trend.
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22-03-2019, 07:54   #754
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After a quiet start to the year there has been some activity in the last few days.

Earth-Directed Solar Flare
Quote:
March 20, 2019: Northern spring began with a bang. On March 20th at 1118 UT, new sunspot AR2736 exploded, producing a C4-class solar flare that lasted more than an hour.

The explosion sent minor waves of ionization rippling through Earth’s upper atmosphere and caused a shortwave radio “brownout” over southern parts of Europe and all of Africa. Anomalies in radio propagation at frequencies below 20 MHz might have been noticed by, e.g., mariners and ham radio operators.

video here of the sunspot.
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08-04-2019, 15:24   #755
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Recently released from NOAA/NASA: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar...inary-forecast

Quote:
SOLAR CYCLE 25 PRELIMINARY FORECAST

published: Friday, April 05, 2019 19:45 UTC
The NOAA/NASA co-chaired international panel to forecast Solar Cycle 25 released a preliminary forecast for Solar Cycle 25 on April 5, 2019. The consensus: Cycle 25 will be similar in size to cycle 24. It is expected that sunspot maximum will occur no earlier than the year 2023 and no later than 2026 with a minimum peak sunspot number of 95 and a maximum of 130. In addition, the panel expects the end of Cycle 24 and start of Cycle 25 to occur no earlier than July, 2019, and no later than September, 2020. The panel hopes to release a final, detailed forecast for Cycle 25 by the end of 2019. Please read the official NOAA press release describing the international panel's forecast at https://www.weather.gov/news/190504-...in-solar-cycle
From what I can make out in this forecast there does not seem to be any imminent grand solar minimum predicted, and maybe just a slightly smaller cycle predicted for cycle 25.
From my own personal perspective I am hoping these predictions come true.
I like to photograph the aurora when I get the chance, and these last couple of years have been very bad for any activity. The last thing I would like to see is any grand solar minimum approaching.
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09-05-2019, 18:42   #756
nacho libre
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Does the lack of updates indicate sunspot activity has increased in recent times? I am just hoping there is a lag effect around low sunspot activity which means winter 2019/20 will be a cold one. I suppose it's a bit early to be thinking about next winter at this stage
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09-05-2019, 19:14   #757
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nacho libre View Post
Does the lack of updates indicate sunspot activity has increased in recent times? I am just hoping there is a lag effect around low sunspot activity which means winter 2019/20 will be a cold one. I suppose it's a bit early to be thinking about next winter at this stage
There has been an increase in sunspot activity and the trend has flatlined now up to April 2019 than declining.

Daily total sunspot numbers for May 2018 to April 2019 and the red line is a 13-day running average:



Monthly sunspot numbers for Solar Cycle 24 and back to Jan 2006 plus a 13-month running average:



Gav's Solar Sunday makes for an excellent watch as always.


Last edited by sryanbruen; 09-05-2019 at 20:38.
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04-06-2019, 12:00   #758
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Currently running at 16 consecutive spotless days on the sun.

Current Stretch: 16 days
2019 total: 90 days (58%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
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04-06-2019, 23:18   #759
SeaBreezes
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I liked how this man puts everything together. Sound is a bit off but improves. No idea of validity of science behind it but interesting.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wqGVJWC-l-E&t=1484s

Last edited by SeaBreezes; 04-06-2019 at 23:28.
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14-06-2019, 08:09   #760
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Well, we have now matched 2018 for the percentage of spotless days, will be interesting to see how long we'll need to wait to see another one.
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 14 Jun 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 26 days
2019 total: 100 days (61%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 14 Jun 2019
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17-06-2019, 22:38   #761
BLIZZARD7
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Sun gone very quiet, Solar flux down to 66... not often that low.

29 days blank, 103 for 2019 / 61%
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19-06-2019, 11:16   #762
sryanbruen
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A full month of consecutive spotless days now, 31.

Current stretch: 31 days
2019 total: 104 days (62%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

http://spaceweather.com/
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23-06-2019, 09:19   #763
BLIZZARD7
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35 days on the blink now...

'THE SUN IS SO BLANK, IT LOOKS LIKE A BILLIARD BALL: The sun has just crossed 34 days without a sunspot, marking the longest stretch of blank suns in the current solar cycle'



35 days blank, 108 for 2019 62%

Solar flux 66
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25-06-2019, 15:12   #764
BLIZZARD7
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After 36 days blank we have some action -



Solar flux @ 68
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25-06-2019, 17:23   #765
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Soon to go over the horizon, so only a few days worth.
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