Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

Oneiric 3 · 23-10-2019 8:52pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Last Oct saw a number of frosts, then hardly any from early nov until well into jan.

Recorded 3 or 4 air frosts last October, yet not one this time around so far (though we did have a very close call the other morning).

Cool snaps are not that uncommon in the latter part of October, and we have only to look back at this time last year to see pretty similar charts to what some of the current models are showing:

highdef · 23-10-2019 8:55pm

With winds looking like being light or near calm in many areas on Friday, is it possible the new GFS model is taking the potential of evaporative cooling into account?

pad199207 · 23-10-2019 11:02pm

Oh hello you beautiful OTT GFS Pub Run

Rougies · 23-10-2019 11:11pm

highdef wrote: »

With winds liking light or near calm in many areas on Friday, is it possible the new GFS model is taking the potential of evaporative cooling into account?

I'm pretty sure all of the major models take evaporative cooling into account. The GFS has a known cold bias, but it's not always wrong. So take charts like this from tonight's 18Z with a healthy dose of caution.

M.T. Cranium · 23-10-2019 11:29pm

I guess the main question to be resolved is the elevation of the rain-snow line, will it be a case of snow coming down hills into view of the lowlands, or covering the lowlands?

Hoping to see clearer guidance on this by the 00z suite but it looks like being a case of near the elevation of the lowlands now (meaning close enough to 100 m, I think at some point when the elevation drops to just above the surface then you know it's going to catch the surface, in nature you won't get a situation with hills being covered and the snow melting to rain drops at rooftop height, these things take quantum steps, as I am finding now that I live in a plateau halfway up a large hill myself, the rain-snow dividing lines always seem to be 50 metres below or above this plateau).

Graces7 · 23-10-2019 11:47pm

Gonzo wrote: »

if it happens then it could be early winter for many places. America/Canada and Scandinavia have had a few proper snow storms and winter conditions at times over the past month. A snowfall in Ireland a week before the end of October is incredibly early too, even if it's restricted to mountain tops. Aside from Friday's fun, most of us could see plenty of night frosts over the next 1 to 2 weeks. I don't think I saw frost more than 3 or 4 times through the entirety of last winter.

My faith- family in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia have been digging themselves out of the snow for a while already out there, after hasty, urgent repairs to the appalling damage earlier by hurricanes. Far from fun it is. Certainly a challenge but not everyone can meet that kind of challenge .

Hoping my fuel supplies get over today else will be a very cold Graces 6 1/2!

highdef · 23-10-2019 11:58pm

Graces7 wrote: »

My faith- family in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia have been digging themselves out of the snow for a while already out there, after hasty, urgent repairs to the appalling damage earlier by hurricanes. Far from fun it is.

Hoping my fuel supplies get over today else will be a very cold Graces 6 1/2!

What hurricanes hit Newfoundland and Nova Scotia?

squarecircles · 24-10-2019 12:16am

what an odd chart,balmy london,baltic ballyporeen.

squarecircles · 24-10-2019 12:18am

gfs 18z on vodka shots.

davidsr20 · 24-10-2019 12:30am

Would have thought this tread would be gone nuts with even the thought of snow

snowgal · 24-10-2019 12:59am

davidsr20 wrote: »

Would have thought this tread would be gone nuts with even the thought of snow

Too early for the general bandwagon yet!!

Rougies · 24-10-2019 2:16am

davidsr20 wrote: »

Would have thought this tread would be gone nuts with even the thought of snow

The media are busy with the Essex shipping container. They'll probably latch on to "Snowmageddon" tomorrow which will cause an influx of posts.

Otherwise, regular posters/readers of the forum are just watching and waiting how things unfold. Significant low level snow is unlikely, and if it happens it will be short lived.

CirrusBusiness · 24-10-2019 6:12am

Rougies wrote: »

The media are busy with the Essex shipping container. They'll probably latch on to "Snowmageddon" tomorrow which will cause an influx of posts.

Otherwise, regular posters/readers of the forum are just watching and waiting how things unfold. Significant low level snow is unlikely, and if it happens it will be short lived.

Hope you are right. Have a commute to the airport and could really do without any snow. It could stick around with the low night time temps..

KingdomRushed · 24-10-2019 6:41am

I absolutely struggle with those GFS forecasts. There is very little likelihood of snow falling at low levels tomorrow. The model is off on one. If I had a euro for every time the GFS showed Ireland etched out with snow and only rain transpiring I’d be very rich indeed. It’s a joke

Pherekydes · 24-10-2019 7:13am

highdef wrote: »

What hurricanes hit Newfoundland and Nova Scotia?

Dorian hit Halifax. Not sure if it went on to do damage to St John's.

M.T. Cranium · 24-10-2019 7:40am

Not much damage from Dorian in Newfoundland, compared to NS ... came by to comment that only the GFS really backs this snowfall potential but it's not only because of any GFS cold bias, the storm track is also stronger and closer to Ireland than on most other guidance. Notice it now splits into two distinct waves, the second of which passes late Friday into Saturday morning. Frankly the snow panels don't quite seem to match up with the model's own 850 mb temps or thicknesses which would keep snow at fairly high elevations until near the last hours of the second wave, so would take this compromise at the moment -- some snow on hills, possibly bursts of sleet or melting wet snow with the rain at lower elevations, and perhaps a slushy coating for Saturday morning first thing before that melts away in cold sunshine later.

highdef · 24-10-2019 8:24am

Pherekydes wrote: »

Dorian hit Halifax. Not sure if it went on to do damage to St John's.

Storm Dorian hit Halifax. Hurricane Dorian did not hit Halifax.

Captain Snow · 24-10-2019 10:04am

Maybe.....

]

Comhrá · 24-10-2019 10:57am

Captain Snow wrote: »

Maybe.....

]

Ah shtoppp........ it's not even Halloween yet!! :eek::eek::eek: You'll crash the weather forum with that carry-on.

Periscal · 24-10-2019 11:15am

Greetings from Slovakia. My view on the Friday-Saturday snow situation. It looks like there is quite a disagreement even with such a short forecast period. GFS and WRF models indicating snow in Wicklow,Dublin and Carlow quite widespread accumulating at moderate altitude, while ECMWF,Arpege and EURO4 indicates nothing. Today 0Z Arome zoomed in on Wicklow had snowline at around 250m asl in Wicklow for tomorrow afternoon-evening. I would say a trip up to Sally Gap in Saturday might give you an early snow fix. Also Brittas and Blessington might see some wet flakes mixed in with sleet. I am curious to see any reports from Wicklow,county where I lived for 6 years.
We are expecting to be hit by some cold weather next week and perhaps first snowflakes if we get perfect aligned cold shot. So far we have exceptionally mild October with 11 out of last 12 days all reached over 20C Tmax. which is crazy, fog dissipates at 9AM and then blue skies until dark.

Gonzo · 24-10-2019 11:34am

While the GFS is going wild showing lots of snow potential, most other models are looking much more normal keeping their feet on the ground.

Arpege shows mostly rain with any chance of snow completely restricted to the highest peaks of the Wicklow Mountains.

arpegeuk-1-38-0.png?24-06

Hirlam is going for rain everywhere:
fmiuk-1-40-0.png?24-08

Cirrostratus · 24-10-2019 12:54pm

My extrapolations from the latest GFS0z with regard to wintry precipitation:

Due points at or above zero generally for all areas for Friday.

The 850hPa also on the high side at -4/-5 °C.

The 500hPa in and around 540/550 averaging -20 to -25 °C, again, marginal.

Conclusion: Evaporative cooling may produce some wintry showers further south while areas that are inland, higher & more northerly have a higher chance of lying snow..

We await the next run!

Villain · 24-10-2019 1:06pm

GFS 06z finally seeing some sense with snow all but gone from charts on Friday afternoon but now wants to bring snow Friday night

Meteorite58 · 24-10-2019 1:12pm

GFS showing the heaviest precipitation levels and furthest inland and of course still showing lying snow but pulling back on this now. Would expect it to come back more in line with the European models in the next couple of runs.

EURO 4 just showing the most rainfall of the European models , closely followed by ECM and APERGE, ICON behind a bit.

Meteorite58 · 24-10-2019 1:23pm

ECM just showing snow possibility ( probably wet ) on Wicklow mountains.

Sleety mix possible on higher ground but a very wet mix I would think.

Meteorite58 · 24-10-2019 1:30pm

Updated title. Rainfall warning now in effect.

Met Eireann

NATIONAL WARNINGS

Status: Yellow
Rainfall warning for Wexford and Waterford
Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Wexford and Waterford
Heavy thundery rain expected at times on Friday with accumulations of 30mm in places some spot flooding.

Valid: Friday 25 October 2019 10:00 to Saturday 26 October 2019 06:00

Issued: Thursday 24 October 2019 10:00

leahyl · 24-10-2019 2:18pm

Just Waterford and Wexford

RobertKK · 24-10-2019 2:34pm

I was flicking through the news channels just there before I do some work and I stopped at Al Jazeera as they were doing a comprehensive take on European weather, with the blocking high to the east and the wet west...
Anyway they showed some snow possibility for parts of Ireland and the the UK, while over in some parts of eastern Europe they are sweltering in the heat.

Samsgirl · 24-10-2019 3:22pm

Feck off yellow rain warning!! Travelling from Waterford to Rosslare early Saturday morning for the ferry.

Cantona's Collars · 24-10-2019 3:52pm

Samsgirl wrote: »

Feck off yellow rain warning!! Travelling from Waterford to Rosslare early Saturday morning for the ferry.

It'll be grand, decent road the whole way. Rain won't affect your journey.

Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

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