Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

Graces7 · 23-10-2019 1:49pm

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I'd thread carefully around here with comments like that :pac:

lol.. thoughts are free though!

Villain · 23-10-2019 2:57pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

No, what’s weird is people thinking that it matters what adults think about the weather, the weather certainly doesn’t care.

Now let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Being serious though it is really only GFS showing anything interesting, ECMWF and ICON have shifted south and don’t support snow, well only on the highest peaks.

It seems an awful lot of people believe GFS based on questions I’m getting!

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 2:59pm

Villain wrote: »

No, what’s weird is people thinking that it matters what adults think about the weather, the weather certainly doesn’t care.

Now let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Being serious though it is really only GFS showing anything interesting, ECMWF and ICON have shifted south and don’t support snow, well only on the highest peaks.

It seems an awful lot of people believe GFS based on questions I’m getting!

Ye but everyone knows GFS stands for "Good for Snow" always right for the white stuff

jambofc · 23-10-2019 3:23pm

this is a non event apart from the summits if you ask me

realdanbreen · 23-10-2019 3:58pm

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I'd thread carefully around here with comments like that :pac:

Oh Oh! You sound like you might be from Oughterard or Ballinamore! :eek:

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 3:59pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Oh Oh! You sound like you might be from Oughterard or Ballinamore! :eek:

Nah bud, i couldn't give two fiddlers but some of this lot, they take their weather watching VERY seriously

realdanbreen · 23-10-2019 4:06pm

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Nah bud, i couldn't give two fiddlers but some of this lot, they take their weather watching VERY seriously

Really! I mean I can sort of understand those guys that go chasing Tornadoes and stuff in the states for the thrill . But we get nothing very exciting weaterwise in this country. We have never had a tornado or Hurricane of note and when we got heavy snow for a few days a couple of years ago the whole place closed down!

odyboody · 23-10-2019 4:08pm

Villain wrote: »

No, what’s weird is people thinking that it matters what adults think about the weather, the weather certainly doesn’t care.

Now let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Being serious though it is really only GFS showing anything interesting, ECMWF and ICON have shifted south and don’t support snow, well only on the highest peaks.

It seems an awful lot of people believe GFS based on questions I’m getting!

Think the people who asking probably never heard of the GFS, they get their weather from DJ's and Red Top papers, (notice I didnt say News Papers)

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 23-10-2019 4:19pm

I've a feeling this is just being hyped by those who want snow. Cold, yes. Snow anywhere but peaks, unlikely.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-10-2019 5:10pm

It's always fun to speculate

It does look like any snow mostly on high ground above circa 300 metres.

Wet type sleet/snow to lower levels at times well inland away from windward coasts in the east.

Bigger issue probably flooding.

Looks an ugly, uncomfortable, cold autumn day for most.

Northwest looking dryer and brighter.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 23-10-2019 5:48pm

In before damp squib comments from the usual army

Meteorite58 · 23-10-2019 6:00pm

An interesting one all right, been watching the charts the last few days and no doubt that the GFS is leading the way and again on the latest run is very bullish with the coldest 850 hPa temps and bringing the low further in over the country and showing the highest precipitation levels and making it more a Fri / Sat event with some very heavy rain early Sat morning. A useful event this early in the season to check how the GFS performs. At the moment showing widespread 10cm + Snow across large parts of the Southern half of the country early Sat with temps staying around 0C in places up until early Sat afternoon !!!! A cold bias , hmmm :rolleyes:

ECM 06Z having none of it , ARPEGE 12Z showing some wintry stuff but keeping the bulk of the rainfall over the sea, ICON has moved the LP closer and more over the country on the latest run with bigger rainfall accumulations on the 12Z ( possible flooding in Southern counties ), showing wintry falls but temps far too high for anything to stick bar the highest ground.

Nothing certain yet with small changes in the charts having big effects one way or the other.

Artane2002 · 23-10-2019 6:07pm

I have to say, these are probably the most interesting charts I've seen since that failed easterly last year if not even more interesting. There is a very sharp temperature gradient running across England, somewhere there is going to get absolutely drenched. Heavy enough rain over here too. We all know sleet/snow is going to be mostly for high ground and that's fine, but it is amusing to be talking about snow potential in October. That's not to mention the exceptionally low daytime temperatures seen on the charts.

nacho libre · 23-10-2019 6:43pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I have to say, these are probably the most interesting charts I've seen since that failed easterly last year if not even more interesting. There is a very sharp temperature gradient running across England, somewhere there is going to get absolutely drenched. Heavy enough rain over here too. We all know sleet/snow is going to be mostly for high ground and that's fine, but it is amusing to be talking about snow potential in October. That's not to mention the exceptionally low daytime temperatures seen on the charts.

Yes, parts of England and Wales could end up with 60mm of rain from this.
As you say it's not often we see the potential for snow at any level in October.
It could be a fun day on the Wicklow mountains this weekend!

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 7:12pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes, parts of England and Wales could end up with 60mm of rain from this.
As you say it's not often we see the potential for snow at any level in October.
It could be a fun day on the Wicklow mountains this weekend!

if it happens then it could be early winter for many places. America/Canada and Scandinavia have had a few proper snow storms and winter conditions at times over the past month. A snowfall in Ireland a week before the end of October is incredibly early too, even if it's restricted to mountain tops. Aside from Friday's fun, most of us could see plenty of night frosts over the next 1 to 2 weeks. I don't think I saw frost more than 3 or 4 times through the entirety of last winter.

Billcarson · 23-10-2019 7:16pm

Last Oct saw a number of frosts, then hardly any from early nov until well into jan.

sryanbruen · 23-10-2019 7:16pm

Even Dublin Airport, which some regard as a frost hollow, did not see a single air frost between 30 Oct and 17 Jan last year.

Billcarson · 23-10-2019 7:19pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Even Dublin Airport, which some regard as a frost hollow, did not see a single air frost between 30 Oct and 17 Jan last year.

Did dublin airport record its coldest oct night last yr,if I remember?

sryanbruen · 23-10-2019 7:20pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Did dublin airport record its coldest oct night last yr,if I remember?

Yes, the -4.7C that I mentioned earlier in this thread. Had to wait until 31st January to see a lower temperature than that!

arctictree · 23-10-2019 7:24pm

Lying snow in October in my experience is a one in 8 year event here in Wicklow.

KingBobby · 23-10-2019 7:27pm

I'm not ready for snow. I normally welcome it, but not this time. If if snows in Dublin Mountains, are we talking 300m asl? or 500m asl? Or are the dublin mountains too far north for this system?

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 7:40pm

KingBobby wrote: »

I'm not ready for snow. I normally welcome it, but not this time. If if snows in Dublin Mountains, are we talking 300m asl? or 500m asl? Or are the dublin mountains too far north for this system?

there could be snow in the mountains on Friday and Saturday. This event is looking like dumping a considerable amount of rain to many areas. I would say snowline would be at least 400 or 500meters.

Friday evening: rain or sleet across much of the south and east, snow possible over higher ground:

51-574UK.GIF?23-12

front pushes south during Friday night, more rain than sleet at this stage.
57-574UK.GIF?23-12

Saturday morning it tracks north again brining heavy rain and possibly sleet to many areas.

66-574UK.GIF?23-12

Still raining across the eastern half of the country early Saturday afternoon, not much wintryness left by this stage as it pushes eastwards.

69-574UK.GIF?23-12

In all, looks very wet and probably feeling miserable with plenty of cold, cold rain mixed in with sleet. If this was 4 to 6 weeks time, we could have been looking at a very serious snow event.

SleetAndSnow · 23-10-2019 7:48pm

So we are gonna have rain from Friday afternoon till Saturday afternoon in cork it looks like? Not good, everything is already saturated. We've had lots of rain so far.

KingBobby · 23-10-2019 7:57pm

Thanks @Gonzo
Snow at 500m is grand, snow at 300m and I have a bunch of hungry animals standing in a snow covered field.

Meteorite58 · 23-10-2019 8:03pm

ECM 12Z has the rainfall further in over Ireland on this run but heaviest just along S , SE coastal counties, most of it gone through early Sat morning. Still not showing much in the way of snowfall apart from the Wicklow mountains.

Sammy2012 · 23-10-2019 8:16pm

What is the timing for this event? We have a day of pumpkin picking planned on fri for 100+ kids in south wicklow so what time is the day due to arrive? It sounds like an awful day for it after the lovely dry week we've had!

Meteorite58 · 23-10-2019 8:25pm

Plain to see how the American models are making this out to be far colder than the European.

GoneHome · 23-10-2019 8:37pm

Sammy2012 wrote: »

What is the timing for this event? We have a day of pumpkin picking planned on fri for 100+ kids in south wicklow so what time is the day due to arrive? It sounds like an awful day for it after the lovely dry week we've had!

Here we go.............:rolleyes:

Iodine1 · 23-10-2019 8:40pm

My God! Snow! And yer not sure? Better get the bread in anyway tomorrow! Remember what happened last time!!!!

Chris_5339762 · 23-10-2019 8:44pm

Very interesting charts for this... looks like it could go either way for Cork really.

I'll be in Budapest on Friday and it'll be 23 degrees and sunny. Unseasonably warm there but I won't complain.

Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

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