General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

mgn · 16-06-2020 12:39pm

namloc1980 wrote: »

Failed to get elected twice. Why does she get so much airtime?

Because the likes of the fluffy greens can do no wrong in the eyes of the Irish media.

Agent Smith · 16-06-2020 12:43pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

The older Green Party members seem to have a more broad outlook and aren't as rigid. The new wing lead by the likes of saoirse mchugh who seemed to get notoriety above what her position warranted, as she wasn't elected twice seem rigid and it wouldn't surprise me if she herself was against this deal.

I *genuinely* do not understand the obsession with Saoirse McHugh. She's a multiple Failed candidate who's views seems to be wildly out of step with the party she's a member of.

you might as well ask any party member

L1011 · 16-06-2020 12:46pm

namloc1980 wrote: »

Failed to get elected twice. Why does she get so much airtime?

Three times! Europe, Dail, Seanad.

Would have been interesting to see if she would have got a locals seat in Mayo - Cuffe ran for both as he couldn't be sure of the European seat; got both.

mgn · 16-06-2020 1:00pm

L1011 wrote: »

Three times! Europe, Dail, Seanad.

Would have been interesting to see if she would have got a locals seat in Mayo - Cuffe ran for both as he couldn't be sure of the European seat; got both.

When it comes to the Greens, Cuff is the full cabbage where McHugh is only a leaf.

CrankyHaus · 16-06-2020 1:08pm

Agent Smith wrote: »

I *genuinely* do not understand the obsession with Saoirse McHugh. She's a multiple Failed candidate who's views seems to be wildly out of step with the party she's a member of.

you might as well ask any party member

She's clearly got a knack for self-promotion. She probably has her eye on being party leader one day and sees opposition to the deal as a good platform for raising her profile. All this isn't a million miles from how Leo made the long ascent to Taoiseach. Her gender may also be a benefit, since they only have 2 female TDs out of 12.

This extract from the Irish Examiner today is revealing:

The issue of climate action, she said, was no longer just about emission reductions but about climate justice. There cannot be just social action or climate action, it has to be both, and it will have to be “the way we live our lives.”

I understand that as McHugh watering down Green Party climate proposals to make them more palatable to her rural constituency.

The party leadership might be happy to tell her to swing her hook over this though.

ThunbergsAreGo · 16-06-2020 2:01pm

CrankyHaus wrote: »

She's clearly got a knack for self-promotion. She probably has her eye on being party leader one day and sees opposition to the deal as a good platform for raising her profile. All this isn't a million miles from how Leo made the long ascent to Taoiseach. Her gender may also be a benefit, since they only have 2 female TDs out of 12.

This extract from the Irish Examiner today is revealing:

The issue of climate action, she said, was no longer just about emission reductions but about climate justice. There cannot be just social action or climate action, it has to be both, and it will have to be “the way we live our lives.”

I understand that as McHugh watering down Green Party climate proposals to make them more palatable to her rural constituency.

The party leadership might be happy to tell her to swing her hook over this though.

Dont you need to be elected to something to be in opposition?

namloc1980 · 16-06-2020 2:14pm

CrankyHaus wrote: »

She's clearly got a knack for self-promotion. She probably has her eye on being party leader one day and sees opposition to the deal as a good platform for raising her profile. All this isn't a million miles from how Leo made the long ascent to Taoiseach. Her gender may also be a benefit, since they only have 2 female TDs out of 12.

This extract from the Irish Examiner today is revealing:

The issue of climate action, she said, was no longer just about emission reductions but about climate justice. There cannot be just social action or climate action, it has to be both, and it will have to be “the way we live our lives.”

I understand that as McHugh watering down Green Party climate proposals to make them more palatable to her rural constituency.

The party leadership might be happy to tell her to swing her hook over this though.

As long as she stands in Mayo she has little chance of getting elected. Not a very stable platform if she had leadership ambitions.

beggars_bush · 16-06-2020 2:20pm

namloc1980 wrote: »

Martin is going to be a very unpopular Taoiseach. I'm not sure there's anything he could do to change that.

Jaysus, give the lad a chance

Shelga · 16-06-2020 2:40pm

beggars_bush wrote: »

Jaysus, give the lad a chance

He had a chance, when he was Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, from 2004-2008. Spoiler alert: he blew it.

Hodors Appletart · 16-06-2020 2:50pm

McHugh needs to run in an urban seat to get elected you'd imagine

Mossie1975 · 16-06-2020 4:19pm

Saw a clip of John McGuinness on the midday news and couldn't get over how much he has changed in appearance since I last saw him on the TV.

L1011 · 16-06-2020 4:49pm

Hodors Appletart wrote: »

McHugh needs to run in an urban seat to get elected you'd imagine

Its bad that in a thread where I mentioned McHugh (S) myself a few posts ago; she's so anonymous/irrelevant 90% of the time my initial thought was "but he did get elected, in Donegal

(McHugh, J; that is)

Itssoeasy · 16-06-2020 4:50pm

Agent Smith wrote: »

I *genuinely* do not understand the obsession with Saoirse McHugh. She's a multiple Failed candidate who's views seems to be wildly out of step with the party she's a member of.

you might as well ask any party member

I don't get the fascination either but for some reason she's the person who's name came to mind.

Itssoeasy · 16-06-2020 5:26pm

Hopefully the Green Party members listen to the person they had on drivetime there taking about idealism and pragmatism.

Itssoeasy · 16-06-2020 5:29pm

Jesus this lad on now from Young Green Party is everything that will sink the party and this programme for government.

Rosahane · 16-06-2020 7:57pm

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Hopefully the Green Party members listen to the person they had on drivetime there taking about idealism and pragmatism.

That was the White woman, the former TD from Carlow. basically she said that unless you're in Gov you can do nothing, so better to be in Gov with all the possible outcomes than be in an ineffectual opposition.

What she said made me think that the Social Democrats who have thrown away their chance!

L1011 · 16-06-2020 8:10pm

Rosahane wrote: »

What she said made me think that the Social Democrats who have thrown away their chance!

Without SF transfers, the Soc Dems will be back to Roisin'n'Catherine next time. And I'm convinced Catherine is intending to retire because the Leixlip Cllr is getting her face out in other parts of the constituency she doesn't represent currently.

And SF will run sufficient candidates that there won't be any transfers.

Larbre34 · 16-06-2020 10:00pm

Watching Ossian Smyth on Prime Time there now makes me wonder if the rest of their parliamentary party are as naive as he is.

Yet again to refer back to the late Seamus Brennan, they're playing senior hurling now (and haven't a clue how much their agenda is going to get fudged and kicked down the road. 4.5 years will come around all too quickly.

tatoo · 17-06-2020 11:02am

Rosahane wrote: »

That was the White woman, the former TD from Carlow. basically she said that unless you're in Gov you can do nothing, so better to be in Gov with all the possible outcomes than be in an ineffectual opposition.

What she said made me think that the Social Democrats who have thrown away their chance!

Definitely, they have the streetwiseness needed to put their stamp on a government, and also their two joint leaders have the nous to make sure its implemented.
Some of them, like Gary Gannon , had no interest in governing from the get-go, I get the feeling he is more suited to protesting rather than actually getting things done.
It is going to be very difficult for them to out shout Sinn Féin on the opposition benches.

Downlinz · 17-06-2020 12:45pm

L1011 wrote: »

Without SF transfers, the Soc Dems will be back to Roisin'n'Catherine next time. And I'm convinced Catherine is intending to retire because the Leixlip Cllr is getting her face out in other parts of the constituency she doesn't represent currently.

And SF will run sufficient candidates that there won't be any transfers.

Holly Cairns was elected ahead of the SF representative in Cork South-West and Jennifer Whitmore was 3rd on the first count in a 5-seater in Wicklow. No help from SF transfers required.

People really overstate the SF transfers for most left wing parties, it was only PBP-SOL who benefited hugely from them.

Brussels Sprout · 17-06-2020 2:15pm

Downlinz wrote: »

People really overstate the SF transfers for most left wing parties, it was only PBP-SOL who benefited hugely from them.

PBP-SOL were definitely the big beneficiaries since they may have only got RBB elected had SF ran more candidates.

I think the Greens probably got 3 extra seats as well - which was 25% of their total. SF didn't transfer to them much but they would have transferred to them indirectly (usually via an unsuccessful PBP-SOL candidate). You can see this pattern with:

Malcom Noonan - Carlow-Kilkenny
Mairc O Cathasaigh - Waterford
Steven Mathews - Wicklow (more difficult to tell with his vote)

Roanmore · 17-06-2020 2:30pm

It was on the RTE news on one that there has been a surge in Green Party membership in the North prior to the closing of membership before the vote.
They seemed to suggest that this will lead to a rejection of the deal.

Are we looking at a new election?

maynooth_rules · 17-06-2020 2:52pm

What do those Green members who reject the PFG expect to happen afterwards exactly. Start flirting with SF who financed their manifesto on the back of a fag packet and who oppose all form of carbon taxes? Go back to the people where they can be assured of getting decimated as the FG,FF and SF transfers will all dry up (and most of their seats won were last seast in constituency). The worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition.

PixieValentine · 17-06-2020 2:54pm

Roanmore wrote: »

It was on the RTE news on one that there has been a surge in Green Party membership in the North prior to the closing of membership before the vote.
They seemed to suggest that this will lead to a rejection of the deal.

Are we looking at a new election?

I think I read Green members can only vote- or maybe it is that your vote only counts- if you’ve been a member for six months. So anyone joining up last minute can’t influence the outcome either way.

At least, that’s my understanding of if. Sorry if I’ve got that wrong.

awec · 17-06-2020 3:11pm

If the Greens scupper this government formation on idealistic grounds they'll pay the price at the next election.

Imreoir2 · 17-06-2020 3:13pm

PixieValentine wrote: »

I think I read Green members can only vote- or maybe it is that your vote only counts- if you’ve been a member for six months. So anyone joining up last minute can’t influence the outcome either way.

At least, that’s my understanding of if. Sorry if I’ve got that wrong.

Yes, Green Party has a six month probation. Only members who have been with the party for more than six months will be able to vote.

L1011 · 17-06-2020 3:33pm

Most parties have some anti carpetbagger period; and those that didn't and still don't in the face of what happened with Corbyn are more than a bit nuts.

Roanmore · 17-06-2020 3:45pm

maynooth_rules wrote: »

What do those Green members who reject the PFG expect to happen afterwards exactly. Start flirting with SF who financed their manifesto on the back of a fag packet and who oppose all form of carbon taxes? Go back to the people where they can be assured of getting decimated as the FG,FF and SF transfers will all dry up (and most of their seats won were last seast in constituency). The worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition.

Maybe FF ditch Martin, enter negotiations with SF and Greens?

Ivefoundgod · 17-06-2020 4:17pm

PixieValentine wrote: »

I think I read Green members can only vote- or maybe it is that your vote only counts- if you’ve been a member for six months. So anyone joining up last minute can’t influence the outcome either way.

At least, that’s my understanding of if. Sorry if I’ve got that wrong.

No you are correct. I know a probationary member and they can attend the convention but can't vote. I think there is larger than people think number of the 3kish members who can't actually vote. The perception is these are the more militant younger members so that may make it more likely that it passes.

FrancieBrady · 17-06-2020 4:51pm

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

No you are correct. I know a probationary member and they can attend the convention but can't vote. I think there is larger than people think number of the 3kish members who can't actually vote. The perception is these are the more militant younger members so that may make it more likely that it passes.

2600 members have registered to vote.

Ivefoundgod · 17-06-2020 5:04pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

2600 members have registered to vote.

Mind sharing a source?

Edit: Never mind, found it https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0617/1147994-green-party/

Key wording in the article however "Officials now have to check if each of the 2,627 applications came from a member with six-months standing." My friend would be included in that figure and they cannot vote.

ThunbergsAreGo · 17-06-2020 5:32pm

Roanmore wrote: »

Maybe FF ditch Martin, enter negotiations with SF and Greens?

But do they think they will get a better deal? Feels like they have got a good deal out of this. More so than FG, for example

Bellview · 17-06-2020 5:46pm

maynooth_rules wrote: »

What do those Green members who reject the PFG expect to happen afterwards exactly. Start flirting with SF who financed their manifesto on the back of a fag packet and who oppose all form of carbon taxes? Go back to the people where they can be assured of getting decimated as the FG,FF and SF transfers will all dry up (and most of their seats won were last seast in constituency). The worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition.

In fairness sf have a very environmental Program for government.. that made up on zero paper and ink.. Mary Lou is jumping with excitement at going into opposition regardless of what the public noises are

Roanmore · 17-06-2020 8:40pm

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

But do they think they will get a better deal? Feels like they have got a good deal out of this. More so than FG, for example

Maybe not but they’re getting criticised hugely for putting FG and FF back in again.
Maybe some of them can’t take the heat, the younger generation.

feargale · 17-06-2020 11:06pm

namloc1980 wrote: »

Have to laugh at all the SF fans on social media taking shots at MM and LV for scraping in on the 6th or 8th counts in the GE as if it somehow makes them illegitimate. I'm 100% certain that SF would have much preferred to get 2 candidates over the line on the 8th count in all those constituencies where they ran just 1 candidate and polled c.2 quotas.

Yes, but you must understand that SF are challenged when it comes to doing sums. 25% of the people voted for SF, 75% voted against them. Therefore "the people voted for change," a la SF of course. Like in the North their armed friends had a mandate for murder when the SDLP were pissing on them at the polls.
FF almost got a majority of votes in 1948 and in 1973, but were outmanoeuvred by FG and others on both occasions. Did FF whinge and feel sorry for themselves? No, they took their beating like men.

hotmail.com · 17-06-2020 11:24pm

I think the Greens will ultimately enter government and Eamon will be deposed.

Unlike 2007 to 2011, I think they'll be more likely to leave government much earlier. So the likelihood of an early election is quite high. This may not suit FG, as by then memories of Corona could be forgotten.

FrancieBrady · 17-06-2020 11:25pm

feargale wrote: »

Yes, but you must understand that SF are challenged when it comes to doing sums. 25% of the people voted for SF, 75% voted against them. .

Does that mean 78% voted 'against' FG and 76% 'against' FF?

Sam Russell · 17-06-2020 11:43pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Does that mean 78% voted 'against' FG and 76% 'against' FF?

Yes.

Imreoir2 · 17-06-2020 11:45pm

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

Mind sharing a source?

Edit: Never mind, found it https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0617/1147994-green-party/

Key wording in the article however "Officials now have to check if each of the 2,627 applications came from a member with six-months standing." My friend would be included in that figure and they cannot vote.

2,627 registered for the special convention, this includes members still in their probationary period who are allowed to attend the convention but wont get a postal ballot.

BonnieSituation · 18-06-2020 12:01am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Does that mean 78% voted 'against' FG and 76% 'against' FF?

Sam Russell wrote: »

Yes.

To treat any votes in a PR-STV system in this fashion is nuts. Ye should know better!

I voted FG, SF, Grn and SD and I wanted none of them in govt with FF.

You can't possibly know what people voted against. But we're very clear about WHO they voted for.

eagle eye · 18-06-2020 12:07am

hotmail.com wrote:

Unlike 2007 to 2011, I think they'll be more likely to leave government much earlier. So the likelihood of an early election is quite high. This may not suit FG, as by then memories of Corona could be forgotten.

Wouldn't the memories of the coronavirus be a bad thing for FG with how awful they were and continue to manage it?

BonnieSituation · 18-06-2020 12:10am

eagle eye wrote: »

Wouldn't the memories of the coronavirus be a bad thing for FG with how awful they were and continue to manage it?

And yet FG and Leo are enjoying Michael D levels of approval?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/irish-times-poll-varadkar-to-leave-taoiseach-s-office-with-approval-numbers-off-the-charts-1.4279770

eagle eye · 18-06-2020 1:13am

BonnieSituation wrote:

And yet FG and Leo are enjoying Michael D levels of approval?

Well since this whole covid-19 that my started I've realised that I am continually underestimating the stupidity of Irish people. If that s true then I'm still underestimating it.

BonnieSituation · 18-06-2020 1:33am

eagle eye wrote: »

Well since this whole covid-19 that my started I've realised that I am continually underestimating the stupidity of Irish people. If that s true then I'm still underestimating it.

Seemingly.

Breezer · 18-06-2020 2:32am

awec wrote: »

If the Greens scupper this government formation on idealistic grounds they'll pay the price at the next election.

I think you’re right. I voted Green this time, not as a protest but because I believe in their climate/transport policies. If they’re not going to implement them, what’s the point in voting for them again?

Then again I’m probably a bit unusual in that I actually wanted a FG/Green coalition. If I can’t get the Green bit anyway I’ll just vote for FG next time.

The Momentum wing of the Greens probably thinks I’m the devil.

feargale · 18-06-2020 3:10am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Does that mean 78% voted 'against' FG and 76% 'against' FF?

It does. Just by way of a basic lesson in democracy, in a multi-party system parties combine at will after an election to form coalitions. That's how it's done in Italy, the Netherlands, Finland etc etc. SF uniquely in all of Europe have a problem with that system. (Oops I almost forgot the British Tories.)
Question: should FF have objected to this in 1948 or in 1973? Answer please. Now I've answered your question. Would you pleasne answer mine? And as a bonus, were FF remiss in not whinging in 1948?

Peregrinus · 18-06-2020 3:22am

Fianna Fail did whinge in 1948, and again in 1954. And they did more than whinge - when they got back into office after the second interparty government one of their earliest moves was to try to abolish the PRSTV electoral system and replace it with FPTP.

FrancieBrady · 18-06-2020 10:06am

feargale wrote: »

It does. Just by way of a basic lesson in democracy, in a multi-party system parties combine at will after an election to form coalitions. That's how it's done in Italy, the Netherlands, Finland etc etc. SF uniquely in all of Europe have a problem with that system. (Oops I almost forgot the British Tories.)
Question: should FF have objected to this in 1948 or in 1973? Answer please. Now I've answered your question. Would you pleasne answer mine? And as a bonus, were FF remiss in not whinging in 1948?

Who refused to negotiate with FF in 48?

Coalition is fine when it is done right. The 'we won't talk to 25% of the electorate' haughtyness of the power swap parties is not democracy and is not a proper approach to coalition, which should not be about having domininance.

Michael Martin gave the game away when he (in the opinion of the mainstream media) opened the door to SF, on the night of the election (when projections where saying around 50 seats) what his view of 'coalition' was. It is all about having 'dominance' over smaller parties...the 'mud guards'.

BTW, I still think your contention that 75% voted against SF or 78% voted 'against' FG is nonsense, you cannot extrapolate that from the results.

Podge_irl · 18-06-2020 11:33am

Would it matter if FG "talked" to SF? The chances of them agreeing on a program for government are infinitesimally small.

Brussels Sprout · 18-06-2020 11:50am

FrancieBrady wrote: »

BTW, I still think your contention that 75% voted against SF or 78% voted 'against' FG is nonsense, you cannot extrapolate that from the results.

This is correct. The only way to vote against a party with STV is to not give them a preference. Looking purely at first preference votes is misleading.

A good example of this was Joan Collins. She only received 6.5% of first preference votes in Dublin South-Central this year. This placed her in 6th place in a 4-seater after the first count. Catherine Byrne & Catherine Ardagh were 2nd & 3rd with 11.7% and 11% respectively.

Joan Collins was rejected by the voters so right? Wrong. She leap-frogged those other 2 candidates and got elected on the 6th count while they were both not elected.

Analysing first preference numbers alone can tell you who was popular but they can't quite tell you who was unpopular.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Comments