Property Market 2020

megabomberman · 21-05-2020 1:12pm

Sunny Disposition wrote: »

The most useful intervention we had in housing for years, of course it was criticised by the usual jackasses in the press.

Absolutely, there is no telling what average price the market would have achieved without tight lending restrictions on the banks, the market would be crashing down from that high ceiling if it had been allowed to happen.

Mic 1972 · 21-05-2020 1:14pm

addaword wrote: »

The people telling innocents to buy now are probably estate agents/ sellers, and the situation reminds me of people advising investors to buy property in 2007, or the people saying bank shares were cheap and good value when they started falling from their Celtic tiger peak.

New car sales have dropped 99%, yet you have people on this thread saying property is not affected. Yeah, right.

I agree with this statement pretty much 100%, but on the other hand I do look at the market regularly because i'm planning to buy and since January I haven't seen any significant change. That's plenty of time with the knowledge of Covid and its consequences on the economic. The property market for some strange reason really does look unaffected

addaword · 21-05-2020 1:15pm

wassie wrote: »

Yes - lets hope it is a good leading indicator.

If you are in it for the long term, a secure income stream, is affordable and have a housing need, then a 10-15% price drop may well be immaterial to you.

In a recession, prices always drop 20% minimum.
I heard that in 2006 and like most people did not believe that fully then, I swolled the 10 to 15% soft landing theory advocated by all the vested interests. "Ah, but this time its different".

Blueshoe · 21-05-2020 1:22pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I agree with this statement pretty much 100%, but on the other hand I do look at the market regularly because i'm planning to buy and since January I haven't seen any significant change. That's plenty of time with the knowledge of Covid and its consequences on the economic. The property market for some strange reason really does look unaffected

It's way way too soon to see the affect on property prices. Think 8 months from now

Marius34 · 21-05-2020 1:25pm

addaword wrote: »

In a recession, prices always drop 20% minimum.
I heard that in 2006 and like most people did not believe that fully then, I swolled the 10 to 15% soft landing theory advocated by all the vested interests. "Ah, but this time its different".

What do you mean by "always"?

lawrencesummers · 21-05-2020 1:29pm

Tallback wrote: »

I've considered it but haven't tried yet. House is in a chain so we'd only get a reduction if party above got one too, I'm fairly confident no one will pay more at the moment.

Valuation is taking place today so that will be interesting too

Is the bank carrying out the valuation?
I would chance my arm and go back to the Vendors EA and say the bank valuation is down 20k but you will be happy to proceed by splitting that and reducing agreed price by 10k. The worst they will say is no.

eagle eye · 21-05-2020 1:33pm

Blueshoe wrote:

It's way way too soon to see the affect on property prices. Think 8 months from now

Mid July is where you'll see it. Looks like we'll all be back at work in Julyvor August so third quarter will be better than the second and a better quarter puts confidence in the market.

Villa05 · 21-05-2020 1:51pm

Blueshoe wrote:

There will be stagnation but no deep recession. It won't be allowed happen. The Eu are keen to try and reintroduce much needed inflation. The best way to achieve this is to keep the money coming. Expect a massive low cost or no cost deal to be signed.

Blueshoe wrote:

Any dip will be temporary. Central Banks are filling government coffers with low cost cash which is then being handed out in the form of subsidies and grants in an effort to keep things ticking over until economies get back on track.

Mic 1972 wrote:

That's what i'm seeing too. The market is operating in full knowledge of Covid and its consequences, but somehow it's stable

I don't think anyone has full knowledge of the consequences of covid.
What we do know is that it is not good for all and horrendous for certain sectors, many of these sectors are huge employers/revenue gereators in Ireland
Tourism
Air travel
Sport/music festivals/concerts, horse racing meetings
Foreign students

Auctioneera wrote:

The macro-prudential rules were introduced to dampen the swings in the economic cycle. In fairness, they are doing exactly that. They prevented prices going too high on the upside so less to fall on the downside. Many bemoaned these as acting as a barrier to many to getting on the property ladder. Good job the Central Bank held its ground!

Do think that banks pulling exemptions will have significant impact?
Do you see trading up/down continuing as normal as price declines will be less of a consideration and may in fact aid the process?

Hubertj wrote:

I'd like to listen to that - which station?

It was either pat Kenny or the competition on rte, will have a look later

Mic 1972 wrote:

I agree with this statement pretty much 100%, but on the other hand I do look at the market regularly because i'm planning to buy and since January I haven't seen any significant change. That's plenty of time with the knowledge of Covid and its consequences on the economic. The property market for some strange reason really does look unaffected

I'm assuming the market is dead since lock down with little activity

eagle eye wrote:

Mid July is where you'll see it. Looks like we'll all be back at work in Julyvor August so third quarter will be better than the second and a better quarter puts confidence in the market.

A better quarter maybe but nowhere near 2019 activity and 2019 showed that property in Dublin had plateaued

eagle eye · 21-05-2020 1:58pm

Villa05 wrote:

A better quarter maybe but nowhere near 2019 activity and 2019 showed that property in Dublin had plateaued

I think you'll see acl drop in Dublin for sure just not sure if you'll see it anywhere within two hours of Dublin now. The work from home arrangements look set to continue so I think we'll see lots of people based in Dublin moving back to their home towns if they only have to work in Dublin two days a week or less.
That will lead to rising prices in rural areas and falling prices in Dublin.
If you get out quick enough you'll have a nice nest egg when you sell your semi-d in Dublin and buy your big house down home.

Villa05 · 21-05-2020 2:36pm

Villa05 wrote:

It was either pat Kenny or the competition on rte, will have a look later

Hubertj wrote:

I'd like to listen to that - which station?

Sarah mcInenery rte radio 1 yesterday
2 sections
1 general construction
2 children's hospital

It was a developor that rubbished Tom parlon claims

GreeBo · 21-05-2020 2:41pm

Marius34 wrote: »

What do you mean by "always"?

"sometimes"

awec · 21-05-2020 2:42pm

Covid19 and social distancing is going to drive up costs for almost every sector of the economy, I'm not sure why some think construction will be immune from this.

Whether this translates to higher prices, or to developers scaling back on their plans as they struggle to make margins (more likely) is another thing.

GreeBo · 21-05-2020 2:54pm

awec wrote: »

Covid19 and social distancing is going to drive up costs for almost every sector of the economy, I'm not sure why some think construction will be immune from this.

Whether this translates to higher prices, or to developers scaling back on their plans as they struggle to make margins (more likely) is another thing.

At a minimum it will take them longer to build things, which will likely increase their costs so they will pass them on to buyers.

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 3:01pm

addaword wrote: »

In a recession, prices always drop 20% minimum.
I heard that in 2006 and like most people did not believe that fully then, I swolled the 10 to 15% soft landing theory advocated by all the vested interests. "Ah, but this time its different".

It is a bit different this time in fairness though - we've never seen a pandemic before

awec · 21-05-2020 3:07pm

GreeBo wrote: »

At a minimum it will take them longer to build things, which will likely increase their costs so they will pass them on to buyers.

They can try pass them on to buyers but they may not be successful if the money isn't there.

It's far more likely that they scale back plans to drive down costs. Reduce the number of houses being built and lower the spec of new houses to get cost savings.

For anything that they've already started building and sold they'll have to eat the cost themselves. But they aren't idiots, they aren't going to continue to absorb costs indefinitely.

Pivot Eoin · 21-05-2020 3:13pm

Auctioneera wrote: »

Thought this chart might be of interest.https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xlY6Xw7oCZ8yIVdq1g07-h854xb9rg0Z/view?usp=sharing
It's our daily website traffic during the pandemic. Yesterday was our best day since this all kicked off, with 832 users. This is down from a high of a high of 1280 users on February 18th but up from the bottom of just 331 on April 11th. We're trying to decide if it looks more like a U shape or a V shaped recovery! Definite uptick of late though - hopefully confidence slowly coming back into the market!

LOl, it was probably because you joined Boards yesterday and started posting, so board viewers who didn't know you went to your site.

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 3:14pm

awec wrote: »

They can try pass them on to buyers but they may not be successful if the money isn't there.

It's far more likely that they scale back plans to drive down costs. Reduce the number of houses being built and lower the spec of new houses to get cost savings.

For anything that they've already started building and sold they'll have to eat the cost themselves. But they aren't idiots, they aren't going to continue to absorb costs indefinitely.

I fear you may be right here - construction will slow down now and we'll all pay for that with less supply over coming years.

Canyon86 · 21-05-2020 3:15pm

I m based in East Cork, FTB currently looking,

I have noticed sellers willing to lower prices during these times, at the same time I ve noticed a complete deadlock with no new properties appearing on daft etc etc,

GreeBo · 21-05-2020 3:16pm

awec wrote: »

They can try pass them on to buyers but they may not be successful if the money isn't there.

It's far more likely that they scale back plans to drive down costs. Reduce the number of houses being built and lower the spec of new houses to get cost savings.

For anything that they've already started building and sold they'll have to eat the cost themselves. But they aren't idiots, they aren't going to continue to absorb costs indefinitely.

I'm just not sure scaling back will help their costs, if it takes them longer to build a house because they have 25% fewer builders, then it takes 25% longer (lets say). I dont think their costs will drop proportionally, since only potentially wages will decrease.

Claw Hammer · 21-05-2020 3:26pm

GreeBo wrote: »

I'm just not sure scaling back will help their costs, if it takes them longer to build a house because they have 25% fewer builders, then it takes 25% longer (lets say). I dont think their costs will drop proportionally, since only potentially wages will decrease.

There will be rolling interest charges on top of labour costs. The longer it takes to get to market, the more capital is tied up. Most of the time it will be at high interest rates.

awec · 21-05-2020 3:30pm

GreeBo wrote: »

I'm just not sure scaling back will help their costs, if it takes them longer to build a house because they have 25% fewer builders, then it takes 25% longer (lets say). I dont think their costs will drop proportionally, since only potentially wages will decrease.

Building each house will be more expensive (relatively), which means they'll be able to build less of them. It not going to be half the price, so it's not proportional, but building 50 houses is cheaper than building 100.

It is probable their hand will be forced by their lenders anyway who are less likely to fork out the money needed to maintain current building rates.

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 3:38pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There will be rolling interest charges on top of labour costs. The longer it takes to get to market, the more capital is tied up. Most of the time it will be at high interest rates.

Exactly - time is money when onsite!

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 3:43pm

Canyon86 wrote: »

I m based in East Cork, FTB currently looking,

I have noticed sellers willing to lower prices during these times, at the same time I ve noticed a complete deadlock with no new properties appearing on daft etc etc,

You've answered your own question here. There is an proportional relationship between price and supply. As price goes down, so does supply ie if potential vendors fear prices going down, they decide "now is not the time to sell". Builders behave similarly. The constrained supply means more buyers fighting over fewer properties which over time pushes price up, which generates more supply until market finds an equilibrium. Low prices aren't as good for buyers as they think as it means less properties to choose from - as you are seeing first hand.

DM1983 · 21-05-2020 3:56pm

Tallback wrote: »

My situation is that we are sale agreed on a property since Jan and likely to proceed. I'm fully aware of the macro economic situation etc but for the non economic factors i.e need to get on with life, need space with kids, jobs secure we'll prob proceed with our eyes open. If prices drop (an I think that's more likely than not) to my thinking they'll take a while to do so.

We've been looking for the last couple of years (South Dublin area houses circa €600-850k asking price) and in order to get my own sense of price trends in the market I've been keeping a database of pretty much every property that comes on in that search and then tracking through to when they sell and for how much.

Looking at that today, I see that there are 46 properties in that cohort that have SOLD in March/April/May i.e. these are properties that completed in full knowledge of Covid. This is not scientific but gives some sense of the trends

- 46 Properties sold. All came on the market in Jan or earlier
- 23 went for at or above asking. 23 went for below asking
- Average sold price vs asking was -1%, the range was 23% below asking to 16% above asking
- There was a slight trend (r2 0.28) between the length of time they were on the market (i.e. first seen to sold date) and the price change i.e. the longer they were on the market the more likely they sold below asking
- There was a very mild trend (r2 0.08) of the house condition ranked by me vs the price change. i.e. the better condition a house was in the more likely it would go for above asking
- No trend between changes in price and asking price of houses
- There are a further 75 houses in this search criteria that have gone "Sale Agreed" as marked by Daft/Myhome in March/April/May. 55 of these are since Mar 12 (first lockdown announcement) i.e. Sales activity is continuing at some reasonable level

As I said, this is not scientific but gives some sense of houses that have actually sold and market activity. To my mind - there doesn't seem to be much impact to date on sold prices from Covid but I wouldn't expect there to be at this stage either.

Amazing to find such a brilliant post among all the **** conjecture and opinions. Well done Sir.

Villa05 · 21-05-2020 4:26pm

awec wrote:

Covid19 and social distancing is going to drive up costs for almost every sector of the economy, I'm not sure why some think construction will be immune from this.

Outside of critical services and products. Construction is the first sector back, this would imply least risk and consequently cost.

If costs are driven up elsewhere, there will be less profit, less wages and a higher cost of living. As house prices/rent appear to be calculated as a percentage of income and Ireland is at the max level of that percentage then a significant fall in rent and prices would be inevitable

Auctioneera wrote:

You've answered your own question here. There is an proportional relationship between price and supply. As price goes down, so does supply ie if potential vendors fear prices going down, they decide "now is not the time to sell". Builders behave similarly. The constrained supply means more buyers fighting over fewer properties which over time pushes price up, which generates more supply until market finds an equilibrium. Low prices aren't as good for buyers as they think as it means less properties to choose from - as you are seeing first hand.

I hear Mcwilliams consistently arguing the opposite. Why would I sell while prices are rising also people are sitting on development land doing nothing with it. Inaction leads to undersupply leads to increase in price of development land.

This is why we need intervention from Government to aide the process
Ie zone elsewhere where there is appetite to build and remove development status on land where the owner is sitting on it

Seperatly

If
"Now is not the time to sell as prices are falling"

AND

"Now is the time to buy because prices are falling"

If both statements are true, do they cancel each other out and people who are up sizing/downsizing carry on in the market as normal as they are both buyers and sellers

Will these people lead the market downwards, your thoughts as a market participant would be greatly appreciated

Nika Bolokov · 21-05-2020 4:29pm

DM1983 wrote: »

Amazing to find such a brilliant post among all the **** conjecture and opinions. Well done Sir.

It's one of the best posts on Boards in years.

Beats I bought recently so I think prices are good value v I live with Mammy and prices are gonna crash 500% muhahahahaha

The Phantom Jipper · 21-05-2020 5:28pm

On the topic of houses being relisted at higher prices to preempt people seeking COVID discounts; I got two emails in the space of five hours, same property and it had increased by €24,000. As an aside, it had gotten bigger by a sq m or 2 aswell.

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 6:18pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Outside of critical services and products. Construction is the first sector back, this would imply least risk and consequently cost.

If costs are driven up elsewhere, there will be less profit, less wages and a higher cost of living. As house prices/rent appear to be calculated as a percentage of income and Ireland is at the max level of that percentage then a significant fall in rent and prices would be inevitable

I hear Mcwilliams consistently arguing the opposite. Why would I sell while prices are rising also people are sitting on development land doing nothing with it. Inaction leads to undersupply leads to increase in price of development land.

This is why we need intervention from Government to aide the process
Ie zone elsewhere where there is appetite to build and remove development status on land where the owner is sitting on it

Seperatly

If
"Now is not the time to sell as prices are falling"

AND

"Now is the time to buy because prices are falling"

If both statements are true, do they cancel each other out and people who are up sizing/downsizing carry on in the market as normal as they are both buyers and sellers

Will these people lead the market downwards, your thoughts as a market participant would be greatly appreciated

I heard the McWilliams podcast on this and he was just plain wrong in our view. Just follow the data. When prices rocketed in the mid 2000's, everyone decided to become a property developer. Prices soared and supply followed until we got to over 90,000 units of supply at the peak. Then prices collapsed as we know and and supply followed prices downward. Then as we started to see prices pick up again from around 2015 onwards, supply again started to pick up. So he's just factually wrong when he says high prices don't stimulate supply - they do! And as we enter this new cycle, if prices drop, supply will follow prices downward.

In terms of "Now is the time to buy because prices are falling" - rational people don't say that. If people think prices are falling, they wait for them to fall further. This is why central banks are mandated to hit 2% inflation per annum as deflation is seen as one of the worst things that can happen to an economy. It is of course self fulfilling. If I see prices falling, I wait for them to fall more before I buy so demand dries up, so prices go down further to stimulate demand and on we go like that until no one buys at all.

So in our view, McWilliams is totally wrong when he says high prices don't stimulate supply - they do and the data bears this out.

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 6:51pm

We just had an offer of the guide price on a 3 bed apartment we are selling. Our socially distanced, very careful viewings are being well attended. Vendors are not entertaining lowball offers as they aren't distressed and can always fall back on the strong rental market if buyers won't step up. Full details here:
https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/61-blackrock-grove-eden-blackrock-cork-t12-h424

Thought this might be of interest to this forum. One swallow doesn't make a summer and one offer of the guide doesn't mean prices won't drop but it's an encouraging sign for us in any case. Thoughts welcome.

HodlforWin79 · 21-05-2020 7:18pm

Auctioneera wrote: »

We just had an offer of the guide price on a 3 bed apartment we are selling. Our socially distanced, very careful viewings are being well attended. Vendors are not entertaining lowball offers as they aren't distressed and can always fall back on the strong rental market if buyers won't step up. Full details here:

Thought this might be of interest to this forum. One swallow doesn't make a summer and one offer of the guide doesn't mean prices won't drop but it's an encouraging sign for us in any case. Thoughts welcome.

No offense but it seems like you are firstly trying to convince yourself and secondly others here that the property market will somehow be the only market unaffected by this upcoming recession. Obviously you have skin in the game and are heavily exposed, i do not wish you bad luck but it just seems odd to come out with these flurry of posts to convince rational people that the Irish property market is immune to this.

The canary in the coal mine will be the Q2/Q3 data as right now there has been not much activity in the market, once people see prices are crashing this will cascade into further price reductions.

21-05-2020 7:21pm

Auctionera is an estate agent

Blueshoe · 21-05-2020 7:33pm

The discussion is being affected. It's become more of a q+a

HodlforWin79 · 21-05-2020 7:33pm

bubblypop wrote: »

Auctionera is an estate agent

I know and credit to them they seem to do a better service than most EAs but it's borderline denial stuff posting about vendors not entertaining lowball offers and will fall back on a "strong rental market". It's kind of laughable and i'm not sure if this should be permitted on this forum as it may dilute discussion.

HodlforWin79 · 21-05-2020 7:35pm

Blueshoe wrote: »

The discussion is being affected. It's become more of a q+a

Exactly, it's akin to asking the fish to teach you how to fish.

HodlforWin79 · 21-05-2020 7:38pm

FWIW, we observed 3 types of the same property we have been keeping an eye on recently in and around the same area were added to myhome today. All 3 were listed at roughly around 25% less than similar properties sold for within the past 3 months. Whether they sell at that price or not is a different story, same landlord getting desperate and bailing perhaps?

Mic 1972 · 21-05-2020 7:46pm

Auctioneera wrote: »

We just had an offer of the guide price on a 3 bed apartment we are selling. Our socially distanced, very careful viewings are being well attended. Vendors are not entertaining lowball offers as they aren't distressed and can always fall back on the strong rental market if buyers won't step up. Full details here:
https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/61-blackrock-grove-eden-blackrock-cork-t12-h424

Thought this might be of interest to this forum. One swallow doesn't make a summer and one offer of the guide doesn't mean prices won't drop but it's an encouraging sign for us in any case. Thoughts welcome.

You have a very good website there showing asking price and highest offer, it's very helpful as I would imagine the most frequently asked questions is whether there is currently an offer and how much. I wish more agents did the same

I disagree with your comment about having a strong rental market to go back to as this isn't the case at the moment, rent have plummeted. Also a vendor may not be interested in renting out a property, in many cases LLs are selling specifically to move out of the rental market

HodlforWin79 · 21-05-2020 8:11pm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You have a very good website there showing asking price and highest offer, it's very helpful as I would imagine the most frequently asked questions is whether there is currently an offer and how much. I wish more agents did the same

I disagree with your comment about having a strong rental market to go back to as this isn't the case at the moment, rent have plummeted. Also a vendor may not be interested in renting out a property, in many cases LLs are selling specifically to move out of the rental market

Agreed, it does appear they do a good service with that much needed transparency feature, i wasn't trying to bash them but we will not be taken for a fool.

Also agree with you regarding the rental property, that is about to take and it is likely that most distressed vendors that sell during a economic recessions is due to events such as divorce, death, debt etc and are not in a position to suddenly become a landlord and play the "strong rental market".

Villa05 · 21-05-2020 8:25pm

Auctioneera wrote:

I heard the McWilliams podcast on this and he was just plain wrong in our view. Just follow the data. When prices rocketed in the mid 2000's, everyone decided to become a property developer. Prices soared and supply followed until we got to over 90,000 units of supply at the peak. Then prices collapsed as we know and and supply followed prices downward. Then as we started to see prices pick up again from around 2015 onwards, supply again started to pick up. So he's just factually wrong when he says high prices don't stimulate supply - they do! And as we enter this new cycle, if prices drop, supply will follow prices downward.

I think to be fair to McW, he was arguing about the individual owner, when prices are consistently rising above inflation, why would they sell, there more likely to buy another one rather than sell their existing one, as was the case in the celtic tiger.
When, collectively, all individual owners are thinking this way, you have less supply from property churn

Supply from property developers is a different supply stream to property churn, (the rate at which existing property changes hand}

In 2012 the majority of our property developers were in NAMA, many were making strong arguments for being released out of it Housing supply was in total control of the state since the creation of NAMA, the first warnings of a supply crisis appeared in 2013.

All actions by the state and NAMA would suggest that they were comfortable with the market having a suppy/demand imbalance.

megabomberman · 21-05-2020 9:09pm

I've been observing the rental market around Cork City for a while now.

A significant proportion of properties are starting to be listed at a significant discount to pre covid prices. Roughly equating to a 2 bed being priced at the previous cost of a 1 bed, 3 bed at 2 etc...

Also, I am noticing an increasing in listings, a few of the air bnbs around Kinsale and the like seemed to have flushed through so it is mostly just standard rental stock driving the uptick now.

Will be interesting to observe this trend, as I agree with a previous poster that the rental market is likely somewhat of a leading indicator of the wider sales market.

The Belly · 21-05-2020 9:34pm

Blueshoe wrote: »

Any dip will be temporary. Central Banks are filling government coffers with low cost cash which is then being handed out in the form of subsidies and grants in an effort to keep things ticking over until economies get back on track.

In the Us the federal reserve are specifically targeting markets that ran into liquidity shortages during the 08 collapse. They are being pumped with low cost cash.

There will be stagnation but no deep recession. It won't be allowed happen.
The Eu are keen to try and reintroduce much needed inflation. The best way to achieve this is to keep the money coming.
Expect a massive low cost or no cost deal to be signed.

Yes but the problem is its not going to where it should go. It will keep the banks sorted and big business but small companies wont have any access. The banks will be flooded with liquidity but try and access it and rules will be tighter then before.

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 10:30pm

just reading some of the latest posts. Disappointed to see some people saying we shouldn't be allowed on here. Yes, we are an estate agency and have skin in the game....but so does everyone on here. Everyone is either renting, planning to buy or sell. Some people are planning on lowballing vendors, others are proceeding with the offers they made before Covid and some are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash. Everyone's entitled to their opinion......even us. Getting us kicked off of here would dilute the discussion - why not have us on here. If you disagree with us, then point out why - let's debate the issues. If you think we're wrong, then fair enough, tell us why and we'll try to defend our opinions politely and respectfully.
In our defense, we can't bluff anyone or talk up the market. Every property on our website has its latest offer on there. If we have no offer, then we put that there in big red letters "No Offer" - we have absolutely nowhere to hide. If there is a crash, and we hope for everyone's sake there isn't (that will only happen if large scale economic hardship for us all), you will see it unfolding in real time on our website. This is not the norm. We believe in total transparency.
We are hoping to be a respectful contributor to this very vibrant and educational group and hope to add some value to it. You won't always agree with us and we won't always agree with you but if we did, there would be no fun in that!

Auctioneera · 21-05-2020 10:47pm

Cantstandsya wrote: »

You're here as a business to raise awareness of your website.

I'm guessing few people come here to read ads.

We aren't advertising anything. We are partaking in the discussion. We feel we may add some insights as market participants at the coalface. I mean if people insist we leave, then we go and everyone gets back to abusing estate agents with gay abandon. But why not at least hear our views? If we promote ourselves, then fine, kick us off. But so long as we are genuinely participating in the conversation, surely our opinions are relevant too? An echo chamber is of no use to anyone.

Padre_Pio · 21-05-2020 11:17pm

Auctioneera wrote: »

We're a fixed fee agency - no incentive to drive prices higher and even if we wanted to, we couldn't as all latest offers published transparently on our website. As mentioned previously, the buyers on here have a financial incentive to talk down the market - should they be banned too. Should we vet every participant to ensure that they are financially neutral to all market outcomes?
In that case, we'd need to kick off all buyers, sellers and renters. We all have financial skin in the housing game. So let's accept that and discuss each point on its merits.

I've seen your fees policy and as I said I welcome the discussion.

But this is a discussion, a forum where ideas can be exchanged and hopefully peoples views and opinions mature and grow.

But you're an auctioneer website, not a person (even if there's a person typing out responses) You're outlook cannot change, because to do so means you lose money. So even if the property market is burning down, you'll say it's alright and put on a brave face, like the orchestra on the Titanic.

The reps on the Talk To forums like Liberty or Irish Water are no different to you. I would also question if we're talking to one person, or are their multiple people with access to this account?

EDIT: of course this is just one persons opinion and i have zero power to do anything.

accensi0n · 21-05-2020 11:17pm

Would you do a 5% discount for boards.ie members?

Alrigghtythen · 21-05-2020 11:26pm

Why does it take so long between the solicitors getting the contracts and the buyer getting the keys in ireland?

Villa05 · 21-05-2020 11:40pm

Auctioneera wrote:

If there is a crash, and we hope for everyone's sake there isn't (that will only happen if large scale economic hardship for us all), you will see it unfolding in real time on our website. This is not the norm. We believe in total transparency. We are hoping to be a respectful contributor to this very vibrant and educational group and hope to add some value to it. You won't always agree with us and we won't always agree with you but if we did, there would be no fun in that!

I for one welcome you to the discussion and value your transparency.

Do you think that rents at current levels cause large scale hardship for alot of people struggling to get by on low wages?
Recessions are tough but for people on low pay I would argue they improve their standard of living as accommodation is by far their greatest expense and as there wages are low they will not fall by much.

Being an estate agent/auctioneer, would you think the current property market is sustainable and would it not be better for your business if accommodation was affordable to more people

Auctioneera wrote:

In terms of "Now is the time to buy because prices are falling" - rational people don't say that. If people think prices are falling, they wait for them to fall further. This is why central banks are mandated to hit 2% inflation per annum as deflation is seen as one of the worst things that can happen to an economy. It is of course self fulfilling. If I see prices falling, I wait for them to fall more before I buy so demand dries up, so prices go down further to stimulate demand and on we go like that until no one buys at all.

Appreciate your answer, but to expand Do people who are both buyers and sellers worry about falling prices. Does it really matter

And

If a house has risen 300% in the last 20 years, would a fall of 10/20% result in a vendor pulling their property from the market?

I really would value the opinion of someone on the front line on this

cnocbui · 22-05-2020 12:06am

Alrigghtythen wrote: »

Why does it take so long between the solicitors getting the contracts and the buyer getting the keys in ireland?

Because the government are too lazy to fix up the pigs breakfest - cash cow for solicitors - that is the Irish legal system.

In Western Australia, there is no gazumping, accept a deposit or pay one and that's it; a deposit binds both parties and means what it should and you buy a house and get the keys in 2-3 weeks. You don't even need a solicitor in most cases, and can instead just use a settlement agent. I think that cost about €180 when I bought my first house. If a vendor hasn't vacated the property by the settlement date, they are fined a significant percentage of the sale price for each DAY they remain and the buyer gets that money.

Several times I have asked solicitors why the Irish legal system is so dysfunctional, and at least twice they say blame the British as the system was inherited from them. Doesn't wash with me, because Australia still has the Queen as head of state and was a former British colony and inherited the same legal system; but the big difference is they improved and fixed many aspects of it.

EagerBeaverton · 22-05-2020 12:16am

Auctioneera wrote: »

We just had an offer of the guide price on a 3 bed apartment we are selling. Our socially distanced, very careful viewings are being well attended. Vendors are not entertaining lowball offers as they aren't distressed and can always fall back on the strong rental market if buyers won't step up. Full details here:
https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/61-blackrock-grove-eden-blackrock-cork-t12-h424

Thought this might be of interest to this forum. One swallow doesn't make a summer and one offer of the guide doesn't mean prices won't drop but it's an encouraging sign for us in any case. Thoughts welcome.

Genuinely not being snide when I say this but the phrase "offer of the guide price" is arbitrary and doesn't suggest the property market remains stable - all it means is that you likely valued the house accurately at €225,000 in the current climate. You could have put it up for €240,000 and gotten an offer below the guide which also technically wouldn't indicate the market is dropping, it could just mean you overvalued the property.

Also, from what I can tell from Google maps street view (so I could be wrong), another identical apartment to that one (ground floor, end of row) in the same development sold for €240,000 on 18th March, just 65 days ago. I have no knowledge of the condition of the other apartment and the aspect of yours is East while the other one was North-North-West so this might be a completely unfair comparison, but if the apartment you are currently selling goes for €225,000 (which of course it might not, it might go higher obviously), then that's a 6.5% decrease in value compared to a sale just 65 days ago.

Auctioneera wrote: »

As mentioned previously, the buyers on here have a financial incentive to talk down the market - should they be banned too. Should we vet every participant to ensure that they are financially neutral to all market outcomes?
In that case, we'd need to kick off all buyers, sellers and renters. We all have financial skin in the housing game. So let's accept that and discuss each point on its merits.

You do make a fair point, most here have incentives either way, at least we'd be aware of yours!

I'm nobody to say anything to anyone about what they can and can't do, so this is just an opinion, but there is something about an EA posting details of a single offer on a single house that just seems a bit off the mark. I mean will you post up the next time you get a low ball figure? In fairness you did acknowledge one swallow and all, but the fact that you said your sellers aren't entertaining low ball figures suggests you're getting low ball offers but you ended up posting about the one offer at the guide price as an "encouraging sign", so are you going to be fair and post each time you get an offer below the guide price so there's data to indicate how many offers aren't matching the guide prices and are 'discouraging signs'? I'm 100% genuinely not being flippant with you and in fairness all it takes is one person willing to buy the gaf to keep prices up so all the low ball offers are also meaningless if only one person is happy to purchase.

cunnifferous · 22-05-2020 12:31am

Auctioneera wrote: »

We just had an offer of the guide price on a 3 bed apartment we are selling. Our socially distanced, very careful viewings are being well attended. Vendors are not entertaining lowball offers as they aren't distressed and can always fall back on the strong rental market if buyers won't step up. Full details here:
https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/61-blackrock-grove-eden-blackrock-cork-t12-h424

Thought this might be of interest to this forum. One swallow doesn't make a summer and one offer of the guide doesn't mean prices won't drop but it's an encouraging sign for us in any case. Thoughts welcome.

I happy enough for you to post here. It's obvious who you are and where you(s?) are coming from. More opinions the better, why not? But at the same time don't go getting upset when people call out your more provocative pronouncements.

PommieBast · 22-05-2020 3:30am

Alrigghtythen wrote: »

Why does it take so long between the solicitors getting the contracts and the buyer getting the keys in ireland?

In my own experience it is down to due-diligence in a system that has a lot of legacy issues. If I am not mistaken Ireland did not even have something comparable to the UK land registry until only a few years ago..

Property Market 2020

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