Property Market 2020

Empty_Space · 11-05-2020 4:03pm

cnocbui wrote: »

EU 1.2% Trust me, that is not inflation, neither is 1.8%

Have you first hand experience of living with inflation of 7%?
How about 10%?
How about 15%?

The stock market has bounced because there is nowhere else to invest money for a return because interest rates have been zeroed, not because of inflation. The stock market appreciating is not inflation. The idiots in the US provided 'stimulus' to financial institutions and corporations, not the public. They didn't use the free money to grow their businesses or lend, because demand from consumers has been flat, because they haven't seen real wage increases in a very long time; the corporations and financial institutions bought shares instead.

Actually, as long as the number is positive it is inflation, by definition.

And it seems you are missing my point. I am saying we are heading into massive deflation because the government finally wont be able to keep number positive.

tastyt · 11-05-2020 4:09pm

More bad news of retail stores oasis and warehouse closing permanently. 250 jobs gone here.

Obviously 250 jobs in retail won’t effect the property market but there are a lot of clouds looming over a lot of businesses, it’s a very worrying time

Cyrus · 11-05-2020 4:14pm

tastyt wrote: »

More bad news of retail stores oasis and warehouse closing permanently. 250 jobs gone here.

Obviously 250 jobs in retail won’t effect the property market but there are a lot of clouds looming over a lot of businesses, it’s a very worrying time

they were fooked a long time ago, just a final nail in the coffin.

amyed198 · 11-05-2020 4:16pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

I won't guarantee, but 99 percent sure price will be massively lower in 6 months. In two years, they will have crashed completely.

Some of the advice boggles the mind. You would be mad to buy now.

You can only lead a horse to water.

awec · 11-05-2020 4:17pm

amyed198 wrote: »

You can only lead a horse to water.

You're pretty mouthy for someone who only 4 days ago asked about using loan sharks to prop up your purchase that you didn't want to pull out of.

amyed198 · 11-05-2020 4:19pm

Cyrus wrote: »

they were fooked a long time ago, just a final nail in the coffin.

A bit like the whole economy which has been sedated with QE for a long time. Covid19 has just sped up the process of the crash.

Padre_Pio · 11-05-2020 4:21pm

tastyt wrote: »

More bad news of retail stores oasis and warehouse closing permanently. 250 jobs gone here.

Obviously 250 jobs in retail won’t effect the property market but there are a lot of clouds looming over a lot of businesses, it’s a very worrying time

They went bust in the UK last month, losing money for years. COVID was the final nail in the coffin.

There's plenty of businesses limping along that will be killed soon enough, same happened to all the local factories in towns across Ireland in 2009.

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 4:24pm

schmittel wrote: »

I am pretty sure it has come up fairly regularly in this thread.

Both as a general reason that demand and thus prices will remain high -

i.e demand will be high because a lot of people will buy now because they know they will not be able to get as big a or any mortgage in the future.

and also as a comment on individual cases.

i.e a person in shaky job situation should buy now because they will not get a mortgage in the future.

I have to say I have followed this thread pretty closely and I didn't see any body suggest either of those things, did I just miss them? Can you point them out? Its certainly not a running theme.

Someone recently took a comment I made and spun it to mean that people should apply now before they lose the jobs, but since I didnt say anything of the sort, I'm discounting that.

SozBbz · 11-05-2020 4:28pm

Cyrus wrote: »

they were fooked a long time ago, just a final nail in the coffin.

Completely agree, especially Oasis. They'd gone off the boil a long time ago, they lost sight of their customer and it was going to come to an end at some point, this only hastened their demise.

I'm a female in my early/mid 30's and I havent bought anything in Oasis for 5+ years and I should be their target market. Fashion retail has to evolve or die, and Oasis was stuck in some sort of dowdy floral rut.

There is still going to be clothing retail after Covid19, it will just look different.

Claw Hammer · 11-05-2020 4:28pm

When a shop closes down, it doesn't mean a loss of jobs. The same people who used to buy goods there will still buy the same goods elsewhere so the jobs are just dispersed. This jobs lost and jobs created in relation to shops are just nonsense.

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 4:29pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

I won't guarantee, but 99 percent sure price will be massively lower in 6 months. In two years, they will have crashed completely.

Some of the advice boggles the mind. You would be mad to buy now.

So you are 99% sure that there will be a massive drop in prices and within 2 years they have dropped completely...but you wont guarantee it?

Seems legit!

11-05-2020 4:30pm

Retail in huge trouble. Any business relying on department stores with expensive costs to essentially resell a product is in big trouble but this has been the case for 10+ years, it's coming to the fore now though.

SozBbz · 11-05-2020 4:31pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

When a shop closes down, it doesn't mean a loss of jobs. The same people who used to buy goods there will still buy the same goods elsewhere so the jobs are just dispersed. This jobs lost and jobs created in relation to shops are just nonsense.

While I think there is some truth to this, you're failing to factor in the online factor that fashion retail is up against.

We are losing highstreet shops in favour of online retailers that don't have any physical presence.

This is a danger to the Irish economy as under this model a lot of money goes straight out of the country to the likes of ASOS, PLT, Net a Porter, MyTheresa, The Outnet etc.

You could say that Covid 19 is causing people to buy online who otherwise werent online shoppers. You can't assume that things will go back once people have tried online and liked it.

Nika Bolokov · 11-05-2020 4:34pm

Mods really need to get their finger out and clean up this thread.

It's wandering all over the place.

Empty_Space · 11-05-2020 4:38pm

GreeBo wrote: »

So you are 99% sure that there will be a massive drop in prices and within 2 years they have dropped completely...but you wont guarantee it?

Seems legit!

There are no guarantees, but lets just stay the odds are as stacked as they could ever be.

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 4:56pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

There are no guarantees, but lets just stay the odds are as stacked as they could ever be.

If there are no guarantees then it seems strange that you are convinced within 2 years the market will be totally dead with prices in the toilet.

You are basically saying that it will either be a total disaster in the next two years and then caveating it to say it might not be.

I'd question the value of statements such as that, it seems a lot like scaremongering tbh.

awec · 11-05-2020 5:00pm

I am fairly convinced that prices are going to fall.

I am also fairly convinced that a lot of people who think they will be waiting and then picking up a bargain are going to end up disappointed, as they will realise that they were the collateral damage during the events that caused prices to fall, or that the houses they thought they would be buying for cheap are not the houses that are actually on the market.

Ozark707 · 11-05-2020 5:07pm

awec wrote: »

I am fairly convinced that prices are going to fall.

I am also fairly convinced that a lot of people who think they will be waiting and then picking up a bargain are going to end up disappointed, as they will realise that they were the collateral damage during the events that caused prices to fall, or that the houses they thought they would be buying for cheap are not the houses that are actually on the market.

Time will tell either way. I just hope whatever correction occurs is not like the drawn out affair of the last time.

Greyian · 11-05-2020 5:08pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

When a shop closes down, it doesn't mean a loss of jobs. The same people who used to buy goods there will still buy the same goods elsewhere so the jobs are just dispersed. This jobs lost and jobs created in relation to shops are just nonsense.

Sometimes it's because there's less of a demand for the goods that are being sold, which results in a loss of jobs.

Sometimes the overall demand mightn't change, so another shop/business picks up more sales, but doesn't need to expand their workforce to handle the increase in business, meaning the jobs are still lost from the closed business.

awec · 11-05-2020 5:15pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

Time will tell either way. I just hope whatever correction occurs is not like the drawn out affair of the last time.

I think different segments of the market will react very differently.

Apartments might see a relatively quick drop as investors sell off properties. 3/4 bed family homes in nice areas likely to be a lot slower.

The top-level average will show a drop, but this is not likely to translate into drops everywhere, certainly not to the same extent.

cute geoge · 11-05-2020 5:17pm

imo prices will be back but houses were probable over valued there with the last 12 months .in local town with high unemployment very basic 2 bed apartments needing renovations in town were easily making 80-85k up from 40k

Empty_Space · 11-05-2020 5:19pm

GreeBo wrote: »

If there are no guarantees then it seems strange that you are convinced within 2 years the market will be totally dead with prices in the toilet.

You are basically saying that it will either be a total disaster in the next two years and then caveating it to say it might not be.

I'd question the value of statements such as that, it seems a lot like scaremongering tbh.

If you more then a 99 percent certainty, I dont know what I can do for you.

Bass Reeves · 11-05-2020 5:30pm

cute geoge wrote: »

imo prices will be back but houses were probable over valued there with the last 12 months .in local town with high unemployment very basic 2 bed apartments needing renovations in town were easily making 80-85k up from 40k

At 80-85K they were still below rebuild costs. Lads that bought them might still have yields in excess of 10%+. Such people have bough for cash and will not be under pressure to sell. If they fall in price they will buy again

fliball123 · 11-05-2020 5:31pm

addaword wrote: »

Probably some properties currently occupied by unemployed publicans, hotel workers, pilots etc will come to the market in the next few years too. And properties of people unfortunately deceased.

Why would they come onto the market ireland is the only country where you can get away without paying your mortgage for years..People waiting on a house where someone who is unemployed and struggling will be waiting a long long long time..

Melanchthon · 11-05-2020 6:03pm

awec wrote: »

I think different segments of the market will react very differently.

Apartments might see a relatively quick drop as investors sell off properties. 3/4 bed family homes in nice areas likely to be a lot slower.

The top-level average will show a drop, but this is not likely to translate into drops everywhere, certainly not to the same extent.

Personally I do want house prices to fall but unfortunatly you might be right that the big drops will be the expensive places.

In terms of the new Dublin builds though what's going to happen, from what I saw before this they were expensive and often pretty pokey with small gardens, didn't know anybody that looked seriously at them. In terms of who is going to buy them now though if costs were as high as developers said when they were talking about margins. Are the council's going to be buying up a greater share, this was already a worry in that you paid a premium and then ended up with same social problems as better value areas*, if councils buy greater stock this is going to be an even bigger concern for the smaller amount of private buyers, and with likely large drops in migration will rental companies keep buying?

* At least in my head there is a big difference between paying 250k for a three bed and having social issues to paying 400/450k and having social issues.

fliball123 · 11-05-2020 6:04pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In general there are a few reasons that inflation has been kept under control. If we had not kept it under control in general it would have been China that benefited. When economies were under pressure the ECB as part of a bond buying package attached austerity to the package. This was necessary in those senario's.

However at present the financial crisis is different austerity would only exasperate it. If the choice is between inflation and high deflation, then inflation is the best choice. Inflation with low deposit rates will encourage those with large savings to spend them.

Government will be inclined to spend there way out of this crisis rather than shrink the economy further. It will pump money into small businesses, reduce rates, stabilize bank funding. This is not an PIGS only problem all economies are in it together.

The Germans fear is that Italy in particular will not carry out necessary reforms. However if the choice is between pumping all economic activity living with the Italy issue for 6-10 years then that is the choice that will be made.

The biggest risk to Dublin house prices is a government buildings program like the 1930/40's

In order to do that your going to have to get building contractors in and willing to make SFA on their hard work. Cant see any government building like this for years sure the builders were moaning back in 2018 when the prices hit their high point in the last decade saying there is no money to be made.

Ozark707 · 11-05-2020 6:08pm

awec wrote: »

I think different segments of the market will react very differently.

Apartments might see a relatively quick drop as investors sell off properties. 3/4 bed family homes in nice areas likely to be a lot slower.

The top-level average will show a drop, but this is not likely to translate into drops everywhere, certainly not to the same extent.

The only thing I would disagree is on whether any segment of the market will remain immune to drops. I just cannot see it playing out that way. Different segments of the market are linked to each other to one extent or another (trading up etc).

Donald Trump · 11-05-2020 6:08pm

fliball123 wrote: »

In order to do that your going to have to get building contractors in and willing to make SFA on their hard work. Cant see any government building like this for years sure the builders were moaning back in 2018 when the prices hit their high point in the last decade saying there is no money to be made.

It's not the building contractors that make the big margins.

Ozark707 · 11-05-2020 6:10pm

Melanchthon wrote: »

and with likely large drops in migration will rental companies keep buying?

I think the likes of the REITs will be influenced by how the rental market gets on and we don't necessarily need to see a drop in migration for that to correct. Of course it won't help in keeping rental prices high if migration tails off.

Villa05 · 11-05-2020 6:13pm

Cyrus wrote:

people will always rate their own productivity highly.

Well they did say that some employers were concerned of employee burnout as they did not know when to log out and stop working

hometruths · 11-05-2020 6:18pm

GreeBo wrote: »

I dont disagree, but that attitude is the same irrespective of the house being worth more or less than they paid for it.
i.e. negative equity doesnt comes into it

Negative equity very much comes into it.

It is the biggest driver of non performing mortgages, higher than employment or interest rates.

hometruths · 11-05-2020 6:28pm

GreeBo wrote: »

I have to say I have followed this thread pretty closely and I didn't see any body suggest either of those things, did I just miss them? Can you point them out? Its certainly not a running theme.

Someone recently took a comment I made and spun it to mean that people should apply now before they lose the jobs, but since I didnt say anything of the sort, I'm discounting that.

Posted in this thread:

randoplh134 wrote: »

It's amazing to what lengths humans will complicate their lives and find a way to rationalize it.

I know a couple who are mortgaged to the tilt and are after going sale agreed on a mediocre property for 420k, asking was 440k. They have very little deposit and both work in jobs that are not safe ( infact the woman has already had her hours cut back due to this situation ). Their excuse is they are paying 1100e per month in rent for a 1 bed apartment and the mortgage on the 3 bed house will " only " be 1400 per month and they expect to start a family in 5 years time.

Amazing, what they fail to realize is this house was put up for sale 3 weeks ago and they already got it for 20k under asking, can you imagine what price reductions they will get if they wait a mere 6-12 months.

I hear the excuse of "oh rents are high right now, we are being ripped off etc " . What people fail to realize is that rents are short term, a mortgage is often a life sentence.

Property prices will tank very soon and so too will rents, the rent you are paying now is not forever. The money you save waiting to buy and end up getting a bargain will stand you in good stead for the rest of your life.

Think long term

Replied to:

awec wrote: »

If their jobs are as unsafe and shaky as you suggest then there's a high chance they'll end up unable to get a mortgage in future in the event of prices and the economy tanking.

So yea, think long term, and realise that waiting is not without risks, you could end up waiting a long time.

SozBbz wrote: »

Can you not also appreciate that if the economy tanks that people like the above won't be able to get any mortgage, no matter what "bargains" are out there?

You have to be awfully unlucky to get your PPR repossessed in Ireland, you do not have to be particularly unlucky to get evicted from rented accommodation.

Also, if theyre only sale agreed, changes are the bank will pull their approval before this goes through as there has already been a change in circumstances by one person getting their working hours cut back.

I could go on.

awec · 11-05-2020 6:31pm

schmittel wrote: »

Posted in this thread:

Replied to:

I could go on.

Actually if you had actually read the posts and the context at the time you would see that the poster in question was suggesting that everyone just wait, and then everyone will get a bargain next year.

The poster you quoted was fond of inventing stories and people to try and make their point, which is where the particular reference to shaky jobs comes in. Probably not the best poster to be using to try make your point.

hometruths · 11-05-2020 6:45pm

awec wrote: »

Actually if you had actually read the posts and the context at the time you would see that the poster in question was suggesting that everyone just wait, and then everyone will get a bargain next year.

The poster you quoted was fond of inventing stories and people to try and make their point, which is where the particular reference to shaky jobs comes in. Probably not the best poster to be using to try make your point.

You and SozBbz were the posters I was using to try and make my point. He was just the context.

hometruths · 11-05-2020 6:48pm

awec wrote: »

Actually if you had actually read the posts and the context at the time you would see that the poster in question was suggesting that everyone just wait, and then everyone will get a bargain next year.

The poster you quoted was fond of inventing stories and people to try and make their point, which is where the particular reference to shaky jobs comes in. Probably not the best poster to be using to try make your point.

Is Julissa Bitter Jeep fond of inventing stories too?

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

Few friends of mine who are mortgage approved and still have their jobs are now very keen to get into the market before they lose their jobs etc. Wonder if there is many in this boat, could lead to one final market pump in the short term?

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 6:50pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

If you more then a 99 percent certainty, I dont know what I can do for you.

The problem is that you are 99% certain of a catastrophic result, but 1% that it all might be fine.

It doesnt seem like a very measured view.

For example, I expect to see some drop in the house price index within the next 12 months, maybe 10-15% overall. like other I dont expect this to be across the board, rather less desirable properties will plummet and more desirable might see a slight dip, if at all.

If what you say actually comes to pass, then I'll be personally loading up on discount properties in the D4 area and cant wait.
Somehow I expect to be disappointed.

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 6:54pm

schmittel wrote: »

Is InstaSte fond of inventing stories too?

None of your examples are people on this thread encouraging anyone to do what you are saying they are doing.
Rather they are all people talking about what they are hearing others do...

awec · 11-05-2020 6:57pm

schmittel wrote: »

You and SozBbz were the posters I was using to try and make my point. He was just the context.

What point? If you think I encouraged anyone to apply before losing their job you might want to go read a bit more carefully.

Empty_Space · 11-05-2020 7:01pm

GreeBo wrote: »

The problem is that you are 99% certain of a catastrophic result, but 1% that it all might be fine.

It doesnt seem like a very measured view.

For example, I expect to see some drop in the house price index within the next 12 months, maybe 10-15% overall. like other I dont expect this to be across the board, rather less desirable properties will plummet and more desirable might see a slight dip, if at all.

If what you say actually comes to pass, then I'll be personally loading up on discount properties in the D4 area and cant wait.
Somehow I expect to be disappointed.

You are getting overly caught up on percentages.

I just mean chances are weighted massively towards big drops and deflation. Don't get too caught up on percentages.

addaword · 11-05-2020 7:02pm

In 2006 a wise man said " in every recession property falls at least 20%". Nobody believed him but he was proven right some years later.

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 7:11pm

Empty_Space wrote: »

You are getting overly caught up on percentages.

I just mean chances are weighted massively towards big drops and deflation. Don't get too caught up on percentages.

What a fool I am to get caught up with silly things like numbers :rolleyes:

"massively* weighted towards big drops and deflation"

*but might not happen at all.

Melanchthon · 11-05-2020 7:12pm

Ozark707 wrote: »

I think the likes of the REITs will be influenced by how the rental market gets on and we don't necessarily need to see a drop in migration for that to correct. Of course it won't help in keeping rental prices high if migration tails off.

My view is that even if the impact of this isn't the worst cases but is similar to what a lot of reputable institutions are putting out immigration will fall, public finances are going to be stressed but there will be a lot of people on housing lists, a sizable propertion of first time buyers are going to have reduced ability to take big mortgages a lot of couples in that group will have one partner who's job is suddenly looking very insecure.
What's going to happen to the new builds then? They already seemed over priced to me but apparently there isnt a much the price can be dropped before they are loss making (personally I don't 100% believe this and not without reason believe in some cases there is some weird stuff in relation to lands being "sold")

hometruths · 11-05-2020 7:23pm

awec wrote: »

What point? If you think I encouraged anyone to apply before losing their job you might want to go read a bit more carefully.

Ok, I have read it again, and still come to the conclusion that you were suggesting it is better to proceed with the purchase now at the current price because if they think longer term they might not be able to purchase at any price.

If that is wrong can you tell me what you meant by this? Just so I understand it better?

awec wrote:

If their jobs are as unsafe and shaky as you suggest then there's a high chance they'll end up unable to get a mortgage in future in the event of prices and the economy tanking.

So yea, think long term, and realise that waiting is not without risks, you could end up waiting a long time.

Empty_Space · 11-05-2020 7:25pm

GreeBo wrote: »

What a fool I am to get caught up with silly things like numbers :rolleyes:

"massively* weighted towards big drops and deflation"

*but might not happen at all.

Dont worry about it.

Just realize I am saying there is going to be massive drops and inflation.
But I would never say I am 100 percent sure of anything as I am too wise for that.

hometruths · 11-05-2020 7:31pm

GreeBo wrote: »

None of your examples are people on this thread encouraging anyone to do what you are saying they are doing.
Rather they are all people talking about what they are hearing others do...

Except for awec and SozBzs in my opinion - in as far as they are saying it is better to buy when you have the mortgage approval, even if jobs are uncertain, because you may not get it again. But of course I may have misread them.

To make sure I don't misunderstand you, are you saying that you and (as far as your interpretation of their posts allows) none of the more bullish posters on here think people should or will buy now, even if employment is uncertain, because they have the mortgage offer in place, and it is better to buy now even if you think prices will fall, because you may not get the mortgage in future?

Bass Reeves · 11-05-2020 9:14pm

fliball123 wrote: »

In order to do that your going to have to get building contractors in and willing to make SFA on their hard work. Cant see any government building like this for years sure the builders were moaning back in 2018 when the prices hit their high point in the last decade saying there is no money to be made.

If you looked I said build on state owned land. For a developer to build a development, he must first buy the site, get planning and then proceed to build. He had certain costs the state would not. When he builds he have planning development costs, sales and legal costs, interest on cost of complete development from building to site cost. It is quite possible that if the economy slows a bit, small to mid sized building firms would tender very competitively for government funded development's as guaranteed payment would negate some of the risk and allow for better credit terms offs banks and builders providers. 180 k was a ball park stab, if a developer was trying to build a similar development add 50k for local authority planning and development costs, legal and sales costs and interest on the loans while carrying out the development

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 9:50pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'll never understand this line of thinking. If you have a total of 100k, that you put all into a house, and the house devalues by 50k in a year, that's your net worth basically halved.

The 50k you couldve saved by waiting would mean €250 less p/m on a typical mortgage repayment. The lack of equity you now have will massively affect your ability to refinance, whether to upsize if things go well, efficiently downsize in bad times or go after an investment opportunity.

Someone's net worth will always be calculated by the sum total of their assets. Hard to fathom how people could discard that with the "home for life" line, while their life's work up to that point gets eroded by a poor decision.

That's not to say property prices will rise or fall or that anyone's wrong to buy now. Just that getting the decision right either way has huge consequences for the majority

It's only eroded when you sell.
If things go well, why wouldn't your house value increase?
What if it goes up by 50k in a year and you are priced out of the area you want?
What if there are no houses for sale in the area you want in a year?

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 9:54pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

So you don't think the €250 p/m repayment i referenced, which is a tame example given the price drops back then, would've made a significant difference to the quality of life you had? For most that's a yearly family holiday, or could influence someones decision on a having a further child.

Obviously none of us have a crystal ball, and we can only speculate and go on advice we trust. But it's silly to think you should just plow on if your situation at the moment is ok and think it'll have no affect on your life thereafter. Someone who bought in 2010 over 2007 had a lot more disposable income thereafter, as did someone who bought in 2015 over 2018.

How much of that disposable income are they still forking out on crazy rents while they wait for house prices to drop so they can start saving?

Experience_day · 11-05-2020 9:59pm

GreeBo wrote: »

How much of that disposable income are they still forking out on crazy rents while they wait for house prices to drop so they can start saving?

This is the bit that sways me more towards certain groups buying. If you know that you're going to be staying put, then it makes sense to pay a mortgage for more reasons than quantitative. But there is also money to be saved.

For myself I purchased a house a few years ago now (post 2016) when I was in my twenties. Since then I'm not sure what rent is in this part of Dublin but I doubt its what I'm paying for a 3 bed detached (sub 700). That's quite a lot of savings....

GreeBo · 11-05-2020 10:00pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Sorry, houses are like that. Due to our penchant for developing cookie cutters houses there will most likely be a very similar property down the road if you miss out on one. The major difference being the number on the front door.

It's only in the top end of the market where true one-offs exist and if you miss one you might not ever get one like it again. I would suspect most people participating in the conversation here are notin the €1m+ market.

Perhaps you are just operating in a very different marker to some other posters on here and your advice and your advice makes no sense in their context?

You don't have to be in the 1m market to have restricted supply.

Property Market 2020

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