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01-04-2018, 20:21   #391
cnocbui
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Originally Posted by eeguy View Post
1 Tesla was not on autopilot.
1 Tesla is currently being investigated.
1 Uber is currently being investigated.

The disengagements show that the reasons are no clear cut as you make out. There's plenty of reasons for the driver to take over, not only when the car is doing something it shouldn't.

Seeing as the cars are being trialled on US roads it makes sense to use US stats.
If you want to use US stats, be my guest.

Both fatal Tesla Accidents were while autopilot was engaged. Whoops, I missed the death in China so make that two confirmed, one probable, so likely 4 in all.

You are kidding yourself if you think the two incident's being investigated aren't the fault of the autonomous sytems.

Quote:
Autopilot Cited in Death of Chinese Tesla Driver
...
In an earlier blog post, Tesla said, “We have never seen this level of damage to a Model X in any other crash.” The extreme damage done to the victim’s vehicle, Tesla said, was due to an earlier crash that crushed the concrete divider’s aluminum crash attenuator, thus rendering the safety feature useless. It provided a photo taken the day before the fatal March 23 crash, showing that the feature had not been repaired.

After retrieving the vehicle’s digital logs, the company announced on Friday that the Model X was driving with its semi-autonomous Autopilot system engaged.
...
The first known death caused by a self-driving car was disclosed by Tesla Motors on Thursday, a development that is sure to cause consumers to second-guess the trust they put in the booming autonomous vehicle industry.

The 7 May accident occurred in Williston, Florida, after the driver, Joshua Brown, 40, of Ohio put his Model S into Tesla’s autopilot mode, which is able to control the car during highway driving.
What happens when Tesla’s AutoPilot goes wrong: owners post swerving videos
Read more

Against a bright spring sky, the car’s sensors system failed to distinguish a large white 18-wheel truck and trailer crossing the highway, Tesla said. The car attempted to drive full speed under the trailer, “with the bottom of the trailer impacting the windshield of the Model S”, Tesla said in a blogpost.
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01-04-2018, 21:05   #392
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Originally Posted by cnocbui View Post
If you want to use US stats, be my guest.

Both fatal Tesla Accidents were while autopilot was engaged. Whoops, I missed the death in China so make that two confirmed, one probable, so likely 4 in all.

You are kidding yourself if you think the two incident's being investigated aren't the fault of the autonomous sytems.
All right. So 4 deaths, caused by prototype beta systems that were meant to be supervised at the time of the incident, but weren't due to driver innatention.

Zero caused by fully autonomous because they're as yet unreleased.
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06-08-2018, 05:00   #393
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Stagecoach gives trial to UK's first full-sized driverless bus

https://www.theguardian.com/business...driverless-bus

Granted the bus will only be moving in the depot and not on the roads, its another step towards fully autonomous bus fleets.

At this rate I'd say it'll be the norm a hell of a lot faster than people expect
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06-08-2018, 05:10   #394
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SELF-DRIVING TRUCKS ARE NOW DELIVERING REFRIGERATORS

https://www.wired.com/story/embark-s...deliveries/amp

Driving 650 miles, albeit with a human on board to monitor for now, since October 2017, autonomous trucks have been hauling Frigidaire refrigerators along the I-10 freeway, from a El Paso, Texas, to Palm Springs, California.


Last edited by DaCor; 06-08-2018 at 05:12. Reason: Add video
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08-08-2018, 17:31   #395
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The amount of trials of autonomous buses is growing with more and more cities around the world beginning their own trials

Australia - The NSW government is rolling out a trial of driverless vehicles in the mid-north coast tourism destination Coffs Harbour.
Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/n...vcV53f3xBf7.99

Canada - Montreal City announces pilot project for self-driving shuttle buses https://montrealgazette.com/news/loc...tonomous-buses

France - Macron appointed a senior official, Anne-Marie Idrac, to develop a national strategy for driverless mobility – including new laws, regulations for experiments and pilot projects, and cybersecurity and privacy issues. http://europe.autonews.com/article/2...oreUserAgent=1

New York - https://www.engadget.com/2018/07/18/.../?guccounter=1
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29-08-2018, 15:38   #396
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I think it's becoming more and more obvious that fully autonomous cars are a lot further away than their advocates think. Waymo have by far the most credible program and it looks like their cars still aren't even close to being as good as a human.

Quote:
I hate them': Locals reportedly frustrated with Alphabet's self-driving cars

One woman said that she almost hit one of the company's minivans because it suddenly stopped while trying to make a right turn, while another man said that he gets so frustrated waiting for the cars to cross the intersection that he has illegally driven around them.

The anecdotes highlight how challenging it can be for self-driving cars, which are programmed to drive conservatively, to master situations that human drivers can handle with relative ease, like merging or finding a gap in traffic to make a turn.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/28/loca...ving-cars.html
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29-08-2018, 15:50   #397
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https://twitter.com/LydNicholas/stat...64564686229504
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29-08-2018, 15:54   #398
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No, I think is more like a problem with the non-autonomous cars, which are getting "frustrated" and being "illegally driven around them".
When all of those will be gone, merging and going through a junction will be much faster and safer than before.
You can't expect them to behave just like the human drivers, what will be the point of having them then?
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29-08-2018, 15:58   #399
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Originally Posted by magicbastarder View Post
There was a recent article suggesting pedestrians would have to radically change their behaviour in order to enable self driving cars.

I learned to drive and then drove in a country where pedestrians always have right of way. I think it is the only sane approach and can't understand the US where pedestrians are considered fair game and are only avoided because of the cost of repairing dents.

Quote:
To Get Ready for Robot Driving, Some Want to Reprogram Pedestrians

Researchers bemoan human unpredictability and back the kind of campaigns that helped Germany cut jaywalking fatalities.
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29-08-2018, 16:03   #400
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No, I think is more like a problem with the non-autonomous cars, which are getting "frustrated" and being "illegally driven around them".
When all of those will be gone, merging and going through a junction will be much faster and safer than before.
You can't expect them to behave just like the human drivers, what will be the point of having them then?
They are not going to be gone. The problem is clearly that self driving cars are not up to the job and wont be for quite some time - if ever.

Personally I think driving safely requires general intelligence and so will not be achievable generally as real AI is not even on the horizon.
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29-08-2018, 16:16   #401
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They will be gone, not at once, but gradually. Soon enough things like lane keeping, automatic braking and adaptive cruise control will be mandatory, and that is the direction they will be taking. Next will be something like the TCAS the planes have, and so on. Cars already take away the control when needed, with mandatory technologies like ABS and ESP, so it already started.
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29-08-2018, 16:28   #402
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The tipping point for personal vehicles will be insurance. Once there is a sufficient amount of vehicles capable of autonomous driving, if you don't use it, then you will have to pay a horrendous premium. The caveat being the driver will likely retain control when on boreens etc

Autonomous transport is coming, it's just a matter of when.

The first change will be in long haul trucking

Next will be public transport

Next will be in shipping

Then personal transport

Finally, flight

"They" said a lot of things couldn't be done (cars, aviation, space travel, etc etc), but really, all it takes is for a market to exist and enough willpower to see it through

There is simply too much money to be made and savings achieved and efficiencies gained.
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29-08-2018, 22:56   #403
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Originally Posted by DaCor View Post
The tipping point for personal vehicles will be insurance. Once there is a sufficient amount of vehicles capable of autonomous driving, if you don't use it, then you will have to pay a horrendous premium. The caveat being the driver will likely retain control when on boreens etc

Autonomous transport is coming, it's just a matter of when.

The first change will be in long haul trucking

Next will be public transport

Next will be in shipping

Then personal transport

Finally, flight

"They" said a lot of things couldn't be done (cars, aviation, space travel, etc etc), but really, all it takes is for a market to exist and enough willpower to see it through

There is simply too much money to be made and savings achieved and efficiencies gained.
It will happen. But none of us posting here now will be alive to see it. The technology is still decades away from even being acceptable for everyday use.

Also the road markings need to be clean and readable by the AI.

Self driving vehicles dont like puddles!

The road vehicle, aircraft & space travel advances came about through wars and military needs. When the Germans flew the worlds first jet, it was a fighter plane. The first space going rocket was a WW2 German ballistic missile.

Jet passenger aircraft and visiting the moon were well down on the list.

Last edited by prinzeugen; 29-08-2018 at 23:02.
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30-08-2018, 08:26   #404
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It will happen. But none of us posting here now will be alive to see it.
i'm 42, so maybe (hopefully?) have another 42 years to live.
when i was born, it was the year the first apple was released, which had 8kb of memory. now, your standard computer has one *million* times as much memory.

your lack of faith in technology is interesting.
actually, faith is the wrong word. we've gone from zero to the current point in probably less than a decade, where autonomous cars are driving on roads, albeit in limited or restricted circumstances, but you're still shouting at the tide.

self driving cars will happen; my main concern is that society should dictate the technology rather than the technology dictating to society.
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30-08-2018, 11:12   #405
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i'm 42, so maybe (hopefully?) have another 42 years to live.
when i was born, it was the year the first apple was released, which had 8kb of memory. now, your standard computer has one *million* times as much memory.

your lack of faith in technology is interesting.
actually, faith is the wrong word. we've gone from zero to the current point in probably less than a decade, where autonomous cars are driving on roads, albeit in limited or restricted circumstances, but you're still shouting at the tide.

self driving cars will happen; my main concern is that society should dictate the technology rather than the technology dictating to society.
Your use of the word 'faith is telling. The notion that there have been significant advances in science and technology in the recent past, therefore there absolutely will be success for this particular technology, is logically fallacious and is akin to religious faith. It ignores all the failures of technology and science. It's classic cherry-picking.

Apple bought the rights for the use of liquid metals in consumer products. They never did anything with it beyond making an expensive SIM ejector tool. Clearly they had a vision for something more than that, but it didn't pan out. They sunk millions into GT Advanced Technology for the promise of making sapphire for phone screens in large quantities, cheaply. That venture failed spectacularly.

Current Intel CPUs are so riddled with fundamental vulnerabilities, that really patching them would likely see performance drop more than 50%.

The Italians built a bridge designed to last at least a 100 years...

The US has sunk Billions into the F35 fighter program, it would seem, on exactly the same sort of techno-faith that so many autonomous driving boosters display with their baseless 'will happen' pronouncements. The F35 was envisaged as having a myriad of very advanced systems all integrated into a seamless super-system by software. The reality is they can't write that software.

The US Space Shuttle program was predicated on the promise of re-usability drastically reducing launch costs. From that aspect, it was a complete failure.

I remember when the Concorde was in regular service, pronouncements that soon there would be hypersonic travel - London to Sydney in 2 hours, no less. Hows that looking, 40 years on?

Side splitting comedy that - today you can't even fly supersonic, even if you are a billionaire - you could back in the 70's!

Limitless energy from fusion reactors is just around the corner, just as it was back in the 70's

Cherry picking technological success stories, while ignoring failures, is self-delusion.

As I said, I think driving is a far more complicated task than people give it credit for and autonomous driving will require nothing less than real AI, not all the garbage being touted as AI of late, which isn't even close.

People who think humans are bad drivers and need to be replaced by fault-free perfect and shiny technology, are talking out their 4rse. The fatality rate versus distance driven is actually remarkably low. Humans are generally very good drivers, actually.
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