Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

redarmyblues · 30-07-2020 9:49pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

Chasing, interest and legal costs for what? A judgement that isn’t even worth the paper it’s written. Renters have no wealth, there is nothing to take and I’m sure they’ve learned it’s not worth the bother for the slim slim chance of recovery! More likely they have some debt collector just hassle them for a while then go away

Debt collectors are extremely dogged and persistent, I should know I have been on the sh1tty end of that stick. I had hardly bought my first house when I got a letter in the door saying there was a judgement mortgage against. I arrived home tonight to get a letter from them there is only €120 left on it but start to finish 20 years for an initial 4K debt paid 12K in the end. Its much easier to track you down now.

Smouse156 · 30-07-2020 10:05pm

redarmyblues wrote: »

Debt collectors are extremely dogged and persistent, I should know I have been on the sh1tty end of that stick. I had hardly bought my first house when I got a letter in the door saying there was a judgement mortgage against. I arrived home tonight to get a letter from them there is only €120 left on it but start to finish 20 years for an initial 4K debt paid 12K in the end. Its much easier to track you down now.

Well I’m sorry to hear that and even sorry to hear that you paid 3x! I had Sky debt collector ring me once 6 months after I closed my account and made final payment. I was shocked as hadn’t got any calls from sky and thought the account was closed and settled. It was for around €170. I rang sky, asked them what happened and they eventually said the payment hadn’t gone through. I can’t understand how they didn’t call me or email me to say it was outstanding. I point blank refused to engage with the debt collector, changed phone number and it disappeared forever.

I don’t advocate this and would have happily settled with sky if they had bothered to contact me in the first place (all my details were the same) but I would never ever engage with a debt collector.

31-07-2020 9:24am

brisan wrote: »

Air B&B is making a comeback for the summer months with staycations
Dublin will not benefit from this.
Come September and the kids back in school and it will go quiet again

I have an Airbnb house not far from Dublin, I could have let it 5 times over in July August September and it is now booked up for most of October and some of November (Guests are paying €1100 for 3 night stay this weekend). I changed booking setting from Instant Booking to Request because I had to cancel some bookings from UK/Netherlands/France, I will only accept requests from domestic guests. I know my experience may not be indicative of all Airbnb Hosts in Ireland, but I can assure you, Airbnb is alive and kicking.

brisan · 31-07-2020 9:33am

Dav010 wrote: »

I have an Airbnb house not far from Dublin, I could have let it 5 times over in July August September and it is now booked up for most of October and some of November (Guests are paying €1100 for 3 night stay this weekend). I changed booking setting from Instant Booking to Request because I had to cancel some bookings from UK/Netherlands/France, I will only accept requests from domestic guests. I know my experience may not be indicative of all Airbnb Hosts in Ireland, but I can assure you, Airbnb is alive and kicking.

Well as I said I showed hard not anecdotal evidence that there was plenty of availability in one popular city for a random weekend in Sept.
Air B and B will do well with stay cations as hotels are still looking to make a killing not a living
Come Sept. there will be loads of availability as I showed in one small example
Air B and B WILL DO WELL with staycations as hotels still want to make a killing not a living
Come Sept that will change with kids back in school
I got a 2 bed house in the centre of Killarney for 732 for the week ,granted I booked in May ,but all area are affected
https://www.thejournal.ie/hotel-sector-empty-rooms-5164066-Jul2020/

perfectkama · 31-07-2020 9:38am

airbNb or similar is coming in the city for many domestic getaway hotels to exp, STL frowned upon here
I know several LLs wont touch LT especially if you want to maintain some rights on your sometimes mortgaged property

Ray Palmer · 31-07-2020 11:15am

Smouse156 wrote: »

Chasing, interest and legal costs for what? A judgement that isn’t even worth the paper it’s written. Renters have no wealth, there is nothing to take and I’m sure they’ve learned it’s not worth the bother for the slim slim chance of recovery! More likely they have some debt collector just hassle them for a while then go away

Not true about renters having no money. I had a tenant that owned a way more expensive car than me and a well paid job. He even tried to interview me for a contract role.

Applied for the contract and called in for an interview. Walk in to see him with a huge grin on his face. Opening part the panel of 3 said i would be working directly for him. I stopped the interview saying it would be very difficult given I was his landlord and surprised that hadn't been considered.

The other 2 people were shocked he didn't mention it as my real name is rare, as the only one with the name in the country and likely the world. He did know it was me and he said he didn't think it would be an issue. Everyone else in the room didn't agree. I am sure they gave him a hard time over it considering how much they apologised to me

He did withold rent twice before this event over ridiculous claims for repair for damage he caused. So it was more than just me being his landlord.

JimmyVik · 31-07-2020 11:37am

brisan wrote: »

A random check for kilkenny for Sept 18-20 for 2 people gave 63 results

https://www.airbnb.com/s/Kilkenny/homes?tab_id=home_tab&refinement_paths%5B%5D=%2Fhomes&query=Kilkenny&place_id=ChIJq8UjNKEwXUgRwHMxl6nHAAo&checkin=2020-09-18&checkout=2020-09-20&source=structured_search_input_header&search_type=search_query&adults=2

Wasnt looking for B&Bs or Kilkenny for that matter.

But I did like this one off that list

https://www.airbnb.ie/rooms/29980722?locale=en&source_impression_id=p3_1596188647_ZbJFcs%2FOMwrb5tto

JimmyVik · 31-07-2020 11:42am

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Not true about renters having no money. I had a tenant that owned a way more expensive car than me and a well paid job. He even tried to interview me for a contract role.

Applied for the contract and called in for an interview. Walk in to see him with a huge grin on his face. Opening part the panel of 3 said i would be working directly for him. I stopped the interview saying it would be very difficult given I was his landlord and surprised that hadn't been considered.

The other 2 people were shocked he didn't mention it as my real name is rare, as the only one with the name in the country and likely the world. He did know it was me and he said he didn't think it would be an issue. Everyone else in the room didn't agree. I am sure they gave him a hard time over it considering how much they apologised to me

He did withold rent twice before this event over ridiculous claims for repair for damage he caused. So it was more than just me being his landlord.

Reminds me of a friend who was renting an apartment to two girls for years.
One got married, the other moved out and the husband moved in.
A couple of years later, while they were still living there my friend was on an Aer Lingus flight and out walks the captain from the cockpit. His tenant. Small world.

brisan · 31-07-2020 12:24pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Wasnt looking for B&Bs or Kilkenny for that matter.

But I did like this one off that list

https://www.airbnb.ie/rooms/29980722?locale=en&source_impression_id=p3_1596188647_ZbJFcs%2FOMwrb5tto

Well you never said where you wanted but I just picked Kilkenny as its a very popular spot for weekends away
its the like of that house where 30 young people will pay 110 each for a weeekend and have mad house parties

errlloyd · 31-07-2020 1:06pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Wasnt looking for B&Bs or Kilkenny for that matter.

But I did like this one off that list

https://www.airbnb.ie/rooms/29980722?locale=en&source_impression_id=p3_1596188647_ZbJFcs%2FOMwrb5tto

Man there are a good few of these types of homes on Airbnb. I really dunno if I'd feel that comfortable staying there! I would be worried I'd break something like...

31-07-2020 1:19pm

brisan wrote: »

Well you never said where you wanted but I just picked Kilkenny as its a very popular spot for weekends away
its the like of that house where 30 young people will pay 110 each for a weeekend and have mad house parties

How does that compare to availability in Kilkenny for the same weekend last year? Not much point in saying Airbnb is on the brink if availability is broadly in line with where it was pre Covid. Hard facts of course.

brisan · 31-07-2020 1:27pm

Dav010 wrote: »

How does that compare to availability in Kilkenny for the same weekend last year? Not much point in saying Airbnb is on the brink if availability is broadly in line with where it was pre Covid. Hard facts of course.

ii have no idea on the availability of rentals in Kilkenny for that weekend last year
Have you ??

31-07-2020 1:52pm

brisan wrote: »

ii have no idea on the availability of rentals in Kilkenny for that weekend last year
Have you ??

No, hence why I wouldn’t rely on availability on a weekend in September to signify that Airbnb is on the way out.

brisan · 31-07-2020 1:57pm

Dav010 wrote: »

No, hence why I wouldn’t rely on availability on a weekend in September to signify that Airbnb is on the way out.

The OP said he could not find a weekend away in Air B and B in Sept Oct.
I googled a random weekend in a popular spot and got 63 results.
So I dont know where the OP was looking but there is availability out there and plenty of it.

31-07-2020 2:18pm

brisan wrote: »

The OP said he could not find a weekend away in Air B and B in Sept Oct.
I googled a random weekend in a popular spot and got 63 results.
So I dont know where the OP was looking but there is availability out there and plenty of it.

I would suspect the poster was searching in the place they want to go, rather than a random search on a random weekend.

Blut2 · 31-07-2020 4:13pm

Airbnb's granular data on occupancy rate for individual locations isn't publicly accessible. But we do have access to some wider pertinent information:

- The verified 90% reduction in foreign tourists visiting Ireland this year
- AirBNB firing 25% of its staff globally, 35% of staff in Dublin this summer
- A measurable massive increase in the number of previous Airbnbs being advertising on the long term rental market in Ireland

All of which would heavily suggest that AirBNB occupancy rates are way, way down. Until any other reliable data that shows the counter intuitive/opposite is shown anyway.

31-07-2020 4:47pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Airbnb's granular data on occupancy rate for individual locations isn't publicly accessible. But we do have access to some wider pertinent information:

- The verified 90% reduction in foreign tourists visiting Ireland this year
- AirBNB firing 25% of its staff globally, 35% of staff in Dublin this summer
- A measurable massive increase in the number of previous Airbnbs being advertising on the long term rental market in Ireland

All of which would heavily suggest that AirBNB occupancy rates are way, way down. Until any other reliable data that shows the counter intuitive/opposite is shown anyway.

For the past 3 years, virtually all my guests are domestic with the occasional American/German/UK booking. Though daft have said that they are seeing more short lets appearing for rental, the numbers are small, equivalent to about 3 days normal supply in Dublin. Numbers of ads on Airbnb site were around the same as last year when I looked at data approx 6 weeks ago.

Blut2 · 31-07-2020 5:12pm

Dav010 wrote: »

For the past 3 years, virtually all my guests are domestic with the occasional American/German/UK booking. Though daft have said that they are seeing more short lets appearing for rental, the numbers are small, equivalent to about 3 days normal supply in Dublin. Numbers of ads on Airbnb site were around the same as last year when I looked at data approx 6 weeks ago.

The number of additional apartments available on DAFT is not 'small' by any count. The number of apartments available in Dublin has gone from approx 600-900 throughout the entire last 4 years, to 2100 on July 1st and still climbing rapidly. A circa 300% increase:

Dublin experienced a huge, almost instant bump in available apartments in March once the airbnb/international tourism market dried up - the volume of available rentals in Dublin Central went up 64% between March 1st and March 21st this year for example. Which was entirely down to to the short term rental market evaporating over night - that was well before any wider job losses/economic effects took hold and caused people up to give up apartments etc.

As far as I'm aware we also haven't added 1500~ new build apartments in Dublin alone in the last few months (during which construction was paused for a good chunk of) so even with some of these new apartments becoming available from economic 'churn' the data would suggest a large number of them are coming from previous short term rentals.

Graham · 31-07-2020 5:43pm

I don't think the reality is a dramatic as the graphs would imply. Effectively several months supply has been stacking up while demand has been locked down.

I do expect additional properties have come back to the market, just not as many as it would appear in the graph.

TSQ · 31-07-2020 6:22pm

Dublin experienced a huge, almost instant bump in available apartments in March once the airbnb/international tourism market dried up - the volume of available rentals in Dublin Central went up 64% between March 1st and March 21st this year for example. Which was entirely down to to the short term rental market evaporating over night - that was well before any wider job losses/economic effects took hold and caused people up to give up apartments etc.

As far as I'm aware we also haven't added 1500~ new build apartments in Dublin alone in the last few months (during which construction was paused for a good chunk of) so even with some of these new apartments becoming available from economic 'churn' the data would suggest a large number of them are coming from previous short term rentals.[/QUOTE]

I cant understand why some people wont get over their obsession with airbnb. Among the young, single people i know who originally hailed from various parts of the country, hardly any of them have stayed in Dublin. Those still working are working from their parents homes and are looking to buy down the country, and those wHo lost their jobs likewise gone back to mam and dad and busy saving their covid payment. I personally know of three twenty somethings who have been told they can continue to work from home permanently. This is where the supply of rentals on Daft is coming from. Anyone who had an airbnb would want their head examined to convert to long term let. Better to leave property empty than not being able to evict tenants who dont pay rent. (Not to mention the non nationals who have gone home)

31-07-2020 6:44pm

Blut2 wrote: »

The number of additional apartments available on DAFT is not 'small' by any count. The number of apartments available in Dublin has gone from approx 600-900 throughout the entire last 4 years, to 2100 on July 1st and still climbing rapidly. A circa 300% increase:

Dublin experienced a huge, almost instant bump in available apartments in March once the airbnb/international tourism market dried up - the volume of available rentals in Dublin Central went up 64% between March 1st and March 21st this year for example. Which was entirely down to to the short term rental market evaporating over night - that was well before any wider job losses/economic effects took hold and caused people up to give up apartments etc.

As far as I'm aware we also haven't added 1500~ new build apartments in Dublin alone in the last few months (during which construction was paused for a good chunk of) so even with some of these new apartments becoming available from economic 'churn' the data would suggest a large number of them are coming from previous short term rentals.

This has been done to death on other threads. It’s worth baring in mind that all listed Airbnb properties account for about 1% of rentals in Ireland, so even if all were put back onto the market (they haven’t, we know this from Airbnb site and current ads) it would have a very small effect on the rental market. The reasons for increases in rentals available are far more obvious, migration from cities of wfh workers, lack of movement due to ban on evictions and lack of students looking for accommodation.

Blut2 · 31-07-2020 8:32pm

Dav010 wrote: »

This has been done to death on other threads. It’s worth baring in mind that all listed Airbnb properties account for about 1% of rentals in Ireland, so even if all were put back onto the market (they haven’t, we know this from Airbnb site and current ads) it would have a very small effect on the rental market. The reasons for increases in rentals available are far more obvious, migration from cities of wfh workers, lack of movement due to ban on evictions and lack of students looking for accommodation.

And how would any of those factors explain a 64% increase in the volume of available apartments in one area of Dublin (Dublin central), in a 3 week period from March 1st -> March 21st? Literally hundreds of apartments all becoming available in a very short space of time, in an area that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city?

As of March 21st Ireland hadn't even fully locked down. The eviction ban only came into effect on March 19th so had prevented effectively nobody from being evicted, most offices hadn't even moved to WFH yet (nevermind their workers migrating from cities), and students don't look for accommodation/move mid-semester in March.

The only thing that had actually already happened by that stage was a disastrous decline in tourism numbers.

31-07-2020 8:37pm

Blut2 wrote: »

And how would any of those factors explain a 64% increase in the volume of available apartments in one area of Dublin (Dublin central), in a 3 week period from March 1st -> March 21st? Literally hundreds of apartments all becoming available in a very short space of time, in an area that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city?

As of March 21st Ireland hadn't even fully locked down. The eviction ban only came into effect on March 19th so had prevented effectively nobody from being evicted, most offices hadn't even moved to WFH yet (nevermind their workers migrating from cities), and students don't look for accommodation/move mid-semester in March.

Central Dublin is also the main rental area for IT/financial services, most of whom were told to work from home and many of whom left their rentals. The Daft Q1 report recorded this increase in availability and outlined that though there was certainly some movement from short let to long let, that particular movement had little baring on the rental market when compared to other reasons.

Students don’t look for rentals mid March, but when Colleges close for the academic year, they leave and go home, now they are not looking for rentals because it is unlikely that colleges will be going back to physical attendance until the new year at the earliest.

Blut2 · 31-07-2020 9:00pm

Dav010 wrote: »

Central Dublin is also the main rental area for IT/financial services, most of whom were told to work from home and many of whom left their rentals. The Daft Q1 report recorded this increase in availability and outlined that though there was certainly some movement from short let to long let, that particular movement had little baring on the rental market when compared to other reasons.

Students don’t look for rentals mid March, but when Colleges close for the academic year, they leave and go home, now they are not looking for rentals because it is unlikely that colleges will be going back to physical attendance until the new year at the earliest.

Google only went WFH on March 3rd, and other tech/finance firms were later. And all were initially temporary. Are you suggesting that between March 3rd and March 21st hundreds of tech staff instantly broke their leases on apartments, in one select area of Dublin, mid-month (having presumably already paid the full month's rent), and walked away, allowing their apartments to instantaneously reenter the market? Thats absolute nonsense.

Again re: students - so how exactly would that effect the supply of rentals in Dublin central between March 1st and March 21st? Which is when the increase in availability in question happened. Students weren't moving out of apartments in that time period.

TSQ · 31-07-2020 9:05pm

Blut2 wrote: »

And how would any of those factors explain a 64% increase in the volume of available apartments in one area of Dublin (Dublin central), in a 3 week period from March 1st -> March 21st? Literally hundreds of apartments all becoming available in a very short space of time, in an area that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city?

As of March 21st Ireland hadn't even fully locked down. The eviction ban only came into effect on March 19th so had prevented effectively nobody from being evicted, most offices hadn't even moved to WFH yet (nevermind their workers migrating from cities), and students don't look for accommodation/move mid-semester in March.

The only thing that had actually already happened by that stage was a disastrous decline in tourism numbers.

Well, I just dont believe there was a mass movement out of airbnb to long term rentals due to covid, since no-one knew at that stage there would be a lockdown, nor how long it would last, or could have imagined the devastating impact on tourism. I dont know where you got that percentage from : does Daft issue such stats on a weekly basis? I think there may have been a trickle from airbnb to long term due to publicity round the enforcement of the rules against short term lets. There were a small number of obvious of ex-airbnbs when I was looking in March and April (the quality of the photography and the folded towels gave the game away).

AngryLips · 31-07-2020 9:09pm

jon1981 wrote: »

Overseas investors still believe there's gold to be found in the rental game here in Ireland.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/german-investor-pays-145m-for-dublin-residential-rental-portfolio-1.4315657?mode=amp

This is to be welcomed, anything to increase both supply and quality can only be a good thing ...price drops will follow

31-07-2020 9:11pm

Blut2 wrote: »

Google only went WFH on March 3rd, and other tech/finance firms were later. And all were initially temporary. Are you suggesting that between March 3rd and March 21st hundreds of tech staff instantly broke their leases on apartments, in one select area of Dublin, mid-month (having presumably already paid the full month's rent), and walked away, allowing their apartments to instantaneously reenter the market? Thats absolute nonsense.

Again re: students - so how exactly would that effect the supply of rentals in Dublin central between March 1st and March 21st? Which is when the increase in availability in question happened. Students weren't moving out of apartments in that time period.

Might be worth reading Daft Q1 report. They seem to know a bit about this kinda stuff.

I just can’t understand the gravity some people seem to give the effect of movement of short lets to tenancies. Short lets make up a minuscule percentage of overall lets and though some think they all went away, Airbnb ad numbers seem to say otherwise.

Blut2 · 31-07-2020 9:18pm

TSQ wrote: »

Well, I just dont believe there was a mass movement out of airbnb to long term rentals due to covid, since no-one knew at that stage there would be a lockdown, nor how long it would last, or could have imagined the devastating impact on tourism. I dont know where you got that percentage from : does Daft issue such stats on a weekly basis? I think there may have been a trickle from airbnb to long term due to publicity round the enforcement of the rules against short term lets. There were a small number of obvious of ex-airbnbs when I was looking in March and April (the quality of the photography and the folded towels gave the game away).

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/rise-of-64pc-in-rental-properties-across-dublin-in-midst-of-coronavirus-crisis-daft-report-39061809.html

- an increase of 64% in supply
- constituting hundreds of apartments
- in one small area of Dublin
- in a very short three week window
- that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city
- long before the wider economic damage from corona hit
- but at a time when tourism numbers had already dropped off a cliff

Short of any other valid explanations being offered anyway - Dav010's didn't exactly stand up to scrutiny - airbnbs coming to market are the logical explanation.

Dav010 wrote: »

Might be worth reading Daft Q1 report.

To quite Daft themselves relating to the time period/increase in supply in question:

"As Airbnb is a large platform for short-term listings it seems highly probable that many of the new rental stock seen on Daft.ie was previously posted on Airbnb, Daft.ie said."

31-07-2020 9:26pm

Blut2 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/rise-of-64pc-in-rental-properties-across-dublin-in-midst-of-coronavirus-crisis-daft-report-39061809.html

- an increase of 64% in supply
- constituting hundreds of apartments
- in one small area of Dublin
- in a very short three week window
- that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city
- long before the wider economic damage from corona hit
- but at a time when tourism numbers had already dropped off a cliff

Short of any other valid explanations being offered anyway - Dav010's didn't exactly stand up to scrutiny - airbnbs coming to market are the logical explanation.

To quite Daft themselves relating to the time period/increase in supply in question:

"As Airbnb is a large platform for short-term listings it seems highly probable that many of the new rental stock seen on Daft.ie was previously posted on Airbnb, Daft.ie said."

You seem to be fixated on short lets and think that they are the reason for increased availability. It is strange that you are ignoring far more obvious reasons compared to a tiny percentage of the market.

I’ve no doubt now that some short lets have converted to long. Airbnb is a large platform for short lets, but short lets still only account for 1% of total lets and the site shows that listings have remained pretty much constant despite planning regs and Covid.

If many short lets have left Airbnb, they must have been replaced with new listings if the numbers have remained pretty much as they were.

TSQ · 03-08-2020 9:37am

Blut2 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/rise-of-64pc-in-rental-properties-across-dublin-in-midst-of-coronavirus-crisis-daft-report-39061809.html

- an increase of 64% in supply
- constituting hundreds of apartments
- in one small area of Dublin
- in a very short three week window
- that also happens to be the most tourism heavy area of the city
- long before the wider economic damage from corona hit
- but at a time when tourism numbers had already dropped off a cliff

Short of any other valid explanations being offered anyway - Dav010's didn't exactly stand up to scrutiny - airbnbs coming to market are the logical explanation.

To quite Daft themselves relating to the time period/increase in supply in question:

"As Airbnb is a large platform for short-term listings it seems highly probable that many of the new rental stock seen on Daft.ie was previously posted on Airbnb, Daft.ie said."

Opinion is not fact, no matter if held by Dr Ronan Lyons “tend to be”, “probably” is opinion based on lazy assumptions. And the numbers dont make any sense even on the most casual glance: a 60% increase in “these kind of properties”, 400 adverts v 242 for the same period last year... so that looks like an almost 100% increase. You do realise for example that many hundreds of student rooms have been added to the rental market in exactly the same central area, and that these are advertised as 1 bed apts, even though they are in fact shared accommodation, so one 4 or 5 bed apt in the likes of Buckley Hall for example adds 5 units to the rental market in Dublin. And Buckley Hall is just one of several such huge developments which have been brought to market in the last 18 months.

Smouse156 · 03-08-2020 9:59am

2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/the-owner-saw-five-of-us-in-a-line-to-rent-his-house-and-upped-the-price-by-500-39416434.html

03-08-2020 10:10am

Smouse156 wrote: »

2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/the-owner-saw-five-of-us-in-a-line-to-rent-his-house-and-upped-the-price-by-500-39416434.html

You could be right, we may not see rental prices like that again for a while. But there are many variables/unknowns at the moment. What will demand be like when colleges reopen for physical attendance and workers are back in their offices? And what effect will the decrease in property build completions/LLs selling up have on supply when demand increases? No one knows right now, but as always, if demand outstrips supply, prices will rise. I think it is pointless basing anything on current advertisements, few people are moving, lots of workers have left rentals and gone home, no students and no leases being terminated by LLs, all these are likely to change as soon as it is safe to reopen fully.

JJJackal · 03-08-2020 10:19am

The increase supply of rental from short term to long term is also only a one-off gain. It wont occur again. Likely some will move back to short term rental as time goes by

Claw Hammer · 03-08-2020 1:31pm

Smouse156 wrote: »

2006 is to house prices as 2019 is to rent prices.
Landlord will be calling it the “good ole days” for years to come (bar those with bad tenants)

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/the-owner-saw-five-of-us-in-a-line-to-rent-his-house-and-upped-the-price-by-500-39416434.html

The rental market has always been cyclical as long as I have followed it. The cycles tend to be about 4 years long. It is likely 2019 was the top of the cycle, Covid or no Covid. A softening rental market tends to make some landlords bail out and prospective investors hold back. After a few years of this a shortage develops and rents rise again for a period. A situation where sales are strong and rents weak will cause many landlords to offload.

ebayissues · 03-08-2020 1:34pm

Has anyone seen changes in prices for house shares? I have not. I still see silly prices going for box rooms.

Assetbacked · 04-08-2020 2:25pm

ebayissues wrote: »

Has anyone seen changes in prices for house shares? I have not. I still see silly prices going for box rooms.

Are you seeing these on Daft or on Facebook groups? I follow some of those Facebook rental groups and the activity under the new posts is extremely low so, while the asking prices may be crazy, it doesn't look like they are getting people in as easily.

I presume the new monthly housing report from Daft is still going ahead? If so, it should be published before the end of this week for July.

redarmyblues · 04-08-2020 4:19pm

AngryLips wrote: »

This is to be welcomed, anything to increase both supply and quality can only be a good thing ...price drops will follow

At 457K per unit and a total of 317 units I doubt this will result in a cheap rent Nirvana in Dublin. If this trend continues it might put a squeeze on the bottom end of the market where the risk of default is higher, in fairness who will want to invest in this market. The state may or will have to step in acting as a middleman to make up the shortfall, renting off LLs to rent to tenants.

AngryLips · 04-08-2020 4:23pm

redarmyblues wrote: »

At 457K per unit and a total of 317 units I doubt this will result in a cheap rent Nirvana in Dublin. If this trend continues it might put a squeeze on the bottom end of the market where the risk of default is higher, in fairness who will want to invest in this market. The state may or will have to step in acting as a middleman to make up the shortfall, renting off LLs to rent to tenants.

317 units is a lot. How else do people think rents will go down if not for supply and demand movements?

redarmyblues · 04-08-2020 10:30pm

AngryLips wrote: »

317 units is a lot. How else do people think rents will go down if not for supply and demand movements?

8 K LLs left the RTB register in the 12 months to 01/20. 317 doesn't knock a lot of that number and many people think that The figure for this year will be much higher. Demand will have to drop faster than fall in supply for rents to fall.

One potential benefit of LLs getting out is that LLs may be of mind to sell rather than leave vacant if the government was to provide funding to the LAs, the irony is that like any other potential customer they will want the premises unoccupied.

AngryLips · 05-08-2020 10:38am

redarmyblues wrote: »

8 K LLs left the RTB register in the 12 months to 01/20.

Yea, and the number of tenancies grew by 3k in the following quarter. These changes from quarter to quarter are not indicative of anything unless there is a persistent trend. They are partly structural and cyclical so to dismiss 300+ properties coming to market is absurd. It is adding to the rental housing stock and solving the problem in a way that one-off landlords couldn't achieve on their own. I don't really understand how anyone can depict this as anything less than a win for the rental market unless you happen to be a landlord yourself. If there's any other solution, I'd love to hear it.

redarmyblues · 05-08-2020 10:50pm

AngryLips wrote: »

Yea, and the number of tenancies grew by 3k in the following quarter. These changes from quarter to quarter are not indicative of anything unless there is a persistent trend. They are partly structural and cyclical so to dismiss 300+ properties coming to market is absurd. It is adding to the rental housing stock and solving the problem in a way that one-off landlords couldn't achieve on their own. I don't really understand how anyone can depict this as anything less than a win for the rental market unless you happen to be a landlord yourself. If there's any other solution, I'd love to hear it.

The figure I quoted is for a 12 month period and it's from the RTB, the RTB also gives a 18K net loss for the period 2017/18/19 period. The RTB are concerned about the lots of LLs and have asked for funding to survey the ex LLs to discover their reasons.

JimmyVik · 06-08-2020 9:32am

redarmyblues wrote: »

The figure I quoted is for a 12 month period and it's from the RTB, the RTB also gives a 18K net loss for the period 2017/18/19 period. The RTB are concerned about the lots of LLs and have asked for funding to survey the ex LLs to discover their reasons.

As if they dont know

Funding to create a survey to make it look like its not a problem at all more like. Like the way they change how they report every year to hide the numbers leaving. HAve they run out of ways to prop up their stats?

Beigepaint · 07-08-2020 12:03am

Why is it a problem if landlords sell up and leave the market? That’s landlords choosing to forgo their property being paid for and profits every month as the hassle is too great.

But why should this concern any tenant or greater society?

07-08-2020 6:13am

Beigepaint wrote: »

Why is it a problem if landlords sell up and leave the market? That’s landlords choosing to forgo their property being paid for and profits every month as the hassle is too great.

But why should this concern any tenant or greater society?

Fewer landlords due to existing ones leaving and fewer small investors buying = Reduced supply = Higher rents = Tenants unable to pay = Increase in homelessness. It’s been in the news a lot over the past couple of years.

Wanderer78 · 07-08-2020 6:56am

Dav010 wrote:

Fewer landlords due to existing ones leaving and fewer small investors buying = Reduced supply = Higher rents = Tenants unable to pay = Increase in homelessness. Itâ€™s been in the news a lot over the past couple of years.

So buildings disappear when landlords leave the market, that's interesting! But to be fair, being a landlord seems like a lot of hassle at the moment

07-08-2020 7:07am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

So buildings disappear when landlords leave the market, that's interesting! But to be fair, being a landlord seems like a lot of hassle at the moment

Buildings don’t disappear when landlords leave the rental market, but the building does tend to leave the rental market. Another poster quoted RTB stats which indicate reduced numbers of tenancies, so it seems that as landlords leave the market by selling or moving to short lets, they are not being replaced.

In responce to the previous poster, that affects the tenant who is being evicted and lowers supply.

redarmyblues · 07-08-2020 8:25am

The trend in Ireland is moving toward institutionals which further reduces competition in general and lets at the lower end of the market. What is good for investors is not necessarily good for renters.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-s-biggest-landlord-records-30-rise-in-rental-income-1.4324509?mode=amp

redarmyblues · 07-08-2020 8:30am

JimmyVik wrote: »

As if they dont know

Funding to create a survey to make it look like its not a problem at all more like. Like the way they change how they report every year to hide the numbers leaving. HAve they run out of ways to prop up their stats?

In fairness, they do seem concerned, without such a survey, SF can claim that the sole reason for the exodus is LLs finally escaping negative equity.

timetogo1 · 07-08-2020 8:35am

redarmyblues wrote: »

In fairness, they do seem concerned, without such a survey, SF can claim that the sole reason for the exodus is LLs finally escaping negative equity.

Wonder how many millions in funding they need for the survey and how many months it'll take.

07-08-2020 8:36am

redarmyblues wrote: »

The trend in Ireland is moving toward institutionals which further reduces competition in general and lets at the lower end of the market. What is good for investors is not necessarily good for renters.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/state-s-biggest-landlord-records-30-rise-in-rental-income-1.4324509?mode=amp

I doubt they are interested in investing in smaller towns or in one off units.

Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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