The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

Scrappychimow · 10-08-2014 10:56pm #1

I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

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pad199207 · 10-08-2014 11:11pm

Fair play to ye

dexter647 · 10-08-2014 11:12pm

I predict lots of model watching that will end like this..

km79 · 10-08-2014 11:13pm

Too soon

Lucreto · 10-08-2014 11:26pm

km79 wrote: »

Too soon

Never too soon.

Last years winter thread was created on the 11/8. I have been waiting to see who will get there first.:pac:

It is kind of scary that this appeared so close to the same date.

Scrappychimow · 10-08-2014 11:26pm

Seriously, it's a definite i know it.

Blush_01 · 10-08-2014 11:32pm

Delivery confirmation for your snow machine came through? Good man.

Scrappychimow · 10-08-2014 11:58pm

Ok then, everyone that doubts my prediction pays 20 euro in November when there is a blanket of snow across the country :cool:

elecktras weather bomb · 11-08-2014 12:12am

Scrappychimow wrote: »

I predict alot of snow this winter- starting in November.

well there is a definite chill in the air at night already,and leaves starting to fall off the neighbours trees into our garden.once its not a snizzle fest il settle for a few good frosts even and few raging storms.

gozunda · 11-08-2014 12:20am

I read that the El Niño likelihood this year has been down graded. El Niño years have been associated with greater chances of snow - I think! Does this hold up for Ireland?

Gonzo · 11-08-2014 12:25am

We've barely had a flake of snow here since Winter 2010, I get the feeling we will get a bit more lucky this winter.

B.A._Baracus · 11-08-2014 12:28am

Not that it means anything as it's not winter yet. But it's a bit cold for August....

Scrappychimow · 11-08-2014 12:32am

Negative Arctic Oscillation

vicwatson · 11-08-2014 8:15am

I predict a riot (if the Cork snow dome occurs again this winter)

Strasser · 11-08-2014 8:26am

Well according to this.....

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/331

you just might be right.

vicwatson · 11-08-2014 8:35am

Strasser wrote: »

Well according to this.....

http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/331

you just might be right.

A bit Ken Ring-esque no??

Larbre34 · 11-08-2014 8:58am

Don't feed trolls and spoofers.

MiNdGaM3 · 11-08-2014 12:25pm

According to this paper, produced by scientists at the Met Office, what we want for the best chance of a -ve NAO is an El Nino, -ve QBO, low sea ice in the Kara Sea in November and a warm north Atlantic sub-polar gyre (basically warm sea surface temperatures in the area stretching from Iceland, into the mid Atlantic and across to Newfoundland).

A -ve QBO is almost guaranteed
El Nino is likely
The state of the Kara sea ice and the sub polar gyre temps remain to be seen

Scrappychimow · 11-08-2014 12:34pm

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

According to this paper, produced by scientists at the Met Office, what we want for the best chance of a -ve NAO is an El Nino, -ve QBO, low sea ice in the Kara Sea in November and a warm north Atlantic sub-polar gyre (basically warm sea surface temperatures in the area stretching from Iceland, into the mid Atlantic and across to Newfoundland).

A -ve QBO is almost guaranteed
El Nino is likely
The state of the Kara sea ice and the sub polar gyre temps remain to be seen

It will all fall into place, just wait and see.

gozunda · 11-08-2014 1:36pm

MiNdGaM3 wrote: »

According to this paper, produced by scientists at the Met Office, what we want for the best chance of a -ve NAO is an El Nino, -ve QBO, low sea ice in the Kara Sea in November and a warm north Atlantic sub-polar gyre (basically warm sea surface temperatures in the area stretching from Iceland, into the mid Atlantic and across to Newfoundland).

A -ve QBO is almost guaranteed
El Nino is likely
The state of the Kara sea ice and the sub polar gyre temps remain to be seen

Synopsis: The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

snowstorm445 · 11-08-2014 3:31pm

I predict two possible scenarios:

1. There will be whiteout blizzard conditions for most of the country à la late 2010.

Meanwhile, however, Cork's beloved snow shield will be in full force. All snow showers will fizzle out when they reach the invisible boundary at the Dunkettle roundabout, with Cork city getting rampant zonal conditions with temperatures in the low teens.

Expect tantrums and gloating to follow. :P

...Or a more likely scenario:

2. There will be a total cross model agreement for a massive Beasterly Snowmageddon (think 2010 on steroids) that will send Boards.ie into meltdown and then will promptly vanish at 24h out to be replaced by a Bartlett High Pressure. Posters will then declare "I will never trust the models again", only to get excited once again when the same scenario repeats itself a week later. :pac:

leahyl · 11-08-2014 4:36pm

snowstorm445 wrote: »

I predict two possible scenarios:

1. There will be whiteout blizzard conditions for most of the country à la late 2010.

Meanwhile, however, Cork's beloved snow shield will be in full force. All snow showers will fizzle out when they reach the invisible boundary at the Dunkettle roundabout, with Cork city getting rampant zonal conditions with temperatures in the low teens.

Expect tantrums and gloating to follow. :P

...Or a more likely scenario:

2. There will be a total cross model agreement for a massive Beasterly Snowmageddon (think 2010 on steroids) that will send Boards.ie into meltdown and then will promptly vanish at 24h out to be replaced by a Bartlett High Pressure. Posters will then declare "I will never trust the models again", only to get excited once again when the same scenario repeats itself a week later. :pac:

That pretty much sums it up!

lapua20grain · 11-08-2014 5:36pm

was waiting to see when the first thread would start looking forward to all the gnashing of teeth as everybody blames either the cork snowshield or the pesky iom shadow when all the models go pear shaped.:)

snowstorm445 · 11-08-2014 11:32pm

Gosh, I wonder what James Madden thinks winter will be like this year! :rolleyes:

TBH, any cold weather will be an improvement on last winter. Plenty of storms but no decent wintry spells at all (apart from one or two cold zonal wet snow events). Hopefully this winter will be more of a mixed bag.

Lucreto · 12-08-2014 2:02am

Last Winter I dubbed it The Year America stole Winter.

Looking at all the blocking that is around now if it were winter we would be looking out for snow. Knowing our luck we will be back in the western mess just in time for Winter.

We barely even had frost last year. I hope this year is different.

Last year is was going well in the beginning. Higher snow cover than normal over Russia then BAM the US stole the entire winter.

Here are my charts are saying

From October 2013 to March 2014 I recorded 32 frost mornings

October 2012 to April 2013 I recorded 93 frost mornings

October 2011 to April 2012 I recorded 28 frost mornings

October 2010 to March 2011 I recorded 81 frost mornings.

Iancar29 · 12-08-2014 12:05pm

Bring in the New year with a CHILL i say :rolleyes:

:pac: :P

Billcarson · 12-08-2014 10:53pm

Hopefully winter 2014/15 will be much better for cold and snow lovers then last winter,i suppoose its cant be any worse. Since the start of 2011 there has been a real lack of snow (March 2013 was a cold month and delivered some snow of course but to me March is always too little too late). Winter 2011/12 was rubbish and winter 2012/13 wasnt great so heres hoping with the coming winter snowlovers will fare better.

emo72 · 12-08-2014 11:23pm

that 2 years of snow we got a couple of years ago was an aberration lads. its not gonna happen again for another 30 years. chillax:pac:

Scrappychimow · 12-08-2014 11:35pm

emo72 wrote: »

that 2 years of snow we got a couple of years ago was an aberration lads. its not gonna happen again for another 30 years. chillax:pac:

Put your money where your mouth is

Scrappychimow · 12-08-2014 11:39pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuzLlOSJTKg

emo72 · 12-08-2014 11:39pm

Scrappychimow wrote: »

Put your money where your mouth is

all 50 cents?:eek:

its on:cool:

Scrappychimow · 12-08-2014 11:41pm

20 euro :pac:

DeVore · 12-08-2014 11:43pm

OP's ip-number traces to Iceland

emo72 · 12-08-2014 11:45pm

DeVore wrote: »

OP's ip-number traces to Iceland

insert sean bean picture here. winter is coming!

The One Doctor · 13-08-2014 6:13pm

I really hope there's no snow this winter, my girlfriend is due on December 25th!

Pwindedd · 13-08-2014 9:59pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

I really hope there's no snow this winter, my girlfriend is due on December 25th!

Sicko

badshot · 13-08-2014 11:17pm

The One Doctor wrote: »

I really hope there's no snow this winter, my girlfriend is due on December 25th!

jesus

Video · 13-08-2014 11:34pm

I think is about time we had snow this year, been waiting a long time now, just hope it's your average snow and not a blizzard type situation (last winters winds)

Birdnuts · 14-08-2014 2:00am

Could be some wet snow in the Scottish Highlands next week with a very chilly airmass over these islands. I blame the thread entitled "August Heatwave"

Loughc · 14-08-2014 7:43am

It's been very nippy the last three mornings. Feels more like an October morning than an August one!

Which prob means we're in for a mild winter. Hope I'm wrong I really do!

ninebeanrows · 14-08-2014 10:54am

A chilly enough Northerly incursion forecast for early next week, wouldn't be surprised for some parts of the Scottish Highlands to receive their first sprinkle of snow!

Calibos · 14-08-2014 11:48am

The One Doctor wrote: »

I really hope there's no snow this winter, my girlfriend is due on December 25th!

Well then, 2010 snow would be just the ticket. Cuddled up Christmas night with soon to be mother and child in front of the lovely warm fire with the Christmas tree lights twinkling in the corner with the snowcapped bushes outside the window glowing in the moonlight. Then in the blink of an eye, rain and rapid thaw and an easy trip to the hospital.

elecktras weather bomb · 15-08-2014 12:33am

am I right in thinking we could be getting our first frosts next week ? happy days. summer you did fare out well . roll on the dark nights. falling of the leaf , hard frosts , lamppost watching , plenty of deep snow days and a few storms thrown in. not too much to ask for?

leahyl · 15-08-2014 9:27am

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

am I right in thinking we could be getting our first frosts next week ? happy days. summer you did fare out well . roll on the dark nights. falling of the leaf , hard frosts , lamppost watching , plenty of deep snow days and a few storms thrown in. not too much to ask for?

Don't be getting me all excited now!!

Iancar29 · 15-08-2014 3:09pm

elecktras weather bomb wrote: »

am I right in thinking we could be getting our first frosts next week ?

Dunno what models you've been looking at lol . Min ground temps next week 5/6 C

elecktras weather bomb · 16-08-2014 1:12pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Dunno what models you've been looking at lol . Min ground temps next week 5/6 C

sorry was on my phone and don't get to peep as often as I would like and sometimes can be a train wreck to view. im only learning and don't want to bog down the thread.i always stand to be corrected . but midlands and south even yesterday were showing three degrees.and the anomaly charts were nice and blue. maybe more wishfull thinking on my part .like everyone else winter cant come quick enough this year . so my apologies for being over enthusiastic. look forward to reading all your posts over the winter as always and maybe learning a thing or two. many thanks

KingdomRushed · 18-08-2014 3:41pm

We will soon be entering the inbetween zone, with hopes of further heat starting to dissipate and everyone's thoughts turning to winter snow, but feeling a bit unseemly and premature mentioning it. In about 4-6 weeks time the first subzero temps will start showing on FI charts, and hopes will rise and temperatures fall, and then the sickening rollercoaster of broken model promises begins.

Darwin · 18-08-2014 6:31pm

On hols in France at the moment and the national met service were showing statistics for temperatures this summer. Basically up to this point in August, the mean summer temperatures (for France) are down 2c to 3c - almost exactly the same as 2010 (in contrast, summer 2013 temps were on average +3c above the norm). Not sure what implications this has going forward for Ireland's winter but we all know what a vintage year that was for snow lovers! They showed another chart for July showing the general spread of warm weather which was over the UK and most of the Nordic countries, with colder air over France. Mean summer temperatures for some places in Nordic countries e.g. Oslo were up by 6c from normal!

Iancar29 · 01-09-2014 11:13pm

Just poppin in to leave this here... :cool: :pac:

Chooo choooooo :pac:

Lucreto · 02-09-2014 1:18am

My little cousin (she is 6)was telling me she really wants snow this year so she can build a snowman that looks like Olaf from Frozen.

I am expecting lots of "Do you want to build a Snowman" being sung if it happens.

I hope it comes true for her sake

Loughc · 02-09-2014 9:32am

Iancar29 wrote: »

Just poppin in to leave this here... :cool: :pac:

Chooo choooooo :pac:

Not sure I understand this... but I choo choo choosing to see it as SNOW is COMING! Yay!

The Snow Lovers Appreciation Society Winter 2014/15 #MOD NOTE #1

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