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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Artane2002 wrote: »Sounds kind of like the start of December 2015?
A recent comparison I can think of is 23/24 July 2012 (since December 2015 was a very different time of year and is prone to such heavy rainfall events). It started off with a rise in pressure over central Europe and a ridge from the Azores on the weekend of the 21st/22nd. The ridge was positioned to favour southwesterly winds and frontal systems pushed down from the northwest coming up against relatively warm air filtering in from the south Atlantic. There was outbreaks of heavy rain as you'd imagine though not as heavy as it could have been.
Difference this time around is the possibility of record breaking air filtering in from the south into England which will provide a greater contrast than in 2012. Highest 850hPa temp observation in 2012 was around 16c early on the 24th in southeast England (just reached 30c on 25th) whilst we could be talking more than 20c next week and like the end of June, this could be an attack on records there (though for surface temps, a lot of things could make the difference again just like the northeasterly wind did at the end of June).
The air mass over Ireland also looks warmer than in 2012, mainly on the ECM and GEM 0z as the GFS is a cooler option (though somewhat of an outlier in its ensemble). GFS 06z also shows none of the heat, not even a long fetched southerly to southwesterly wind.
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sryanbruen wrote: »A recent comparison I can think of is 23/24 July 2012 (since December 2015 was a very different time of year and is prone to such heavy rainfall events). It started off with a rise in pressure over central Europe and a ridge from the Azores on the weekend of the 21st/22nd. The ridge was positioned to favour southwesterly winds and frontal systems pushed down from the northwest coming up against relatively warm air filtering in from the south Atlantic. There was outbreaks of heavy rain as you'd imagine though not as heavy as it could have been.
Difference this time around is the possibility of record breaking air filtering in from the south into England which will provide a greater contrast than in 2012. Highest 850hPa temp observation in 2012 was around 16c early on the 24th in southeast England (just reached 30c on 25th) whilst we could be talking more than 20c next week and like the end of June, this could be an attack on records there (though for surface temps, a lot of things could make the difference again just like the northeasterly wind did at the end of June).
The air mass over Ireland also looks warmer than in 2012, mainly on the ECM and GEM 0z as the GFS is a cooler option (though somewhat of an outlier in its ensemble). GFS 06z also shows none of the heat, not even a long fetched southerly to southwesterly wind.
How do the two fronts intermingling cause such heavy rainfall physically speaking Sryan....0 -
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GFS 06z has briefly spewed the +20 degree isotherm over ireland by the end of next week,
UK being scortched alive, phenomenal night time minima over there.
Could this be the hottest period of the summer coming for them,potentially record breaking.
Could the Atlantic be held back,could we steal some of their heat.
Will kermit the frog appear.
Interesting model watching ahead.
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sryanbruen wrote: »Trend of the models is largely changeable, sunshine and showers most days, temperatures around average for the time of year in the high teens and low 20s (slightly above in the east). Not as bad as the models were showing when I last posted here. Most of any heavy rain is mainly focused over the UK for this weekend.
Quite the northern blocking signal as the current omega high delivering this heatwave to parts of western Europe is set to migrate northwards through the coming days. This does not spell good news for August long-term if it's dry and warm weather you shall hunt (nor is it good news for Arctic sea ice).
Guess that SSW from December finally made its way down to the troposphere
Some of the Greenland charts we've had since the start of June would cause a forum-wide weathergasm if they were showing up in Winter!0 -
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No heatwaves in the ECM 12Z. It is showing the LP that moves close to us the weekend eventually slowly moving in over us and bringing in cooler Northerly's .
ECM currently showing temps in their high teens or there about to the end of the run.
Who Knows very much FI at the moment.
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Correct. The May/June -NAO continued up until the week just gone when we briefly went into a +NAO. This will be another -NAO month to go along with every month since April. Dry Mays with -NAO (which we had this year) aren't too unusual but summer months are especially July and August. Let's look at this from a pressure pattern perspective.Is it fair to say the East at least had an exceptional July given the NAO that was in place?
A lot of people were saying July would be a repeat of the disaster that was June. But even though blocking, to my untrained eye, continued, the weather was OK in the end for the month.
Maybe August will be a repeat?
The image below shows the 500mb height anomaly reanalysis for July 2019 up to the 27th as well as -NAO Julys and -NAO Augusts from the past. Can see quite the difference with -NAO Julys of the past and July 2019.
In past -NAO Julys, a big anticyclone would lay dead center to the south of Greenland and over Iceland with a corresponding trough of below average undercutting in the North Atlantic Ocean. This would result in a southerly tracking jet stream bringing the weather systems away from their usual position which is around Iceland, to south of Ireland. However, in July 2019 whilst there has been a vast amount of blocking over the Arctic Circle, there has been an area of above average heights over us as well as much of western Europe. There is a low undercutting the high latitude blocking in the Atlantic but it is blocked from progressing eastwards by the ridge over us. Meanwhile, you can see a trough to the east of Europe which was associated with the unusually cold temperatures for those regions earlier in July and northerly winds brought down by the blocking in the Arctic. May had a similar setup to this July with ridging from our south keeping us settled though central and eastern Europe were unusually cold, again brought in by northerly winds as a result of the high latitude blocking.
-NAO Augusts are very similar to the -NAO Julys chart, in fact almost identical.
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the mid to long term outlook for August looks grim, very unsettled and a cooling trend. The models also looked quite poor for the second half of July but thankfully it didn't play out like that. Hopefully August isn't as poor as it is currently looking.
After a few wamish and dry days, the ensembles show a very unsettled picture and temperatures gradually sliding away.
Low pressures sitting over us from early next week:
Low pressure remains stuck over us up to mid month with cool conditions.
At +384 hours low pressure still hanging around:
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Meteorite58 wrote: »ECM 12Z continues to show LP's cuing up coming in from the Atlantic from next weekend out till the end of the run.
We are so overdue a good August...looks like the wait will continue!0 -
We are so overdue a good August...looks like the wait will continue!
Oneric 3 put up a 10 day ECM Total Precipitaion chart and would have to think that it is looking quite wet especially if we see LP coming in from that direction at this time of the year.
Jet powering up and looking Zonal and to the S or over us.
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Long way out but tonight's ECM 12z has developed a vigorous area of low pressure over top of the UK & Ireland on Sunday 18 August with a minimum pressure of 975mb and cool northwesterly winds. Wouldn't be out of place in October or November one must say. GFS has a fairly deep low too for the same timeframe but its centre is smaller and much further northwards.
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Yea sryanbruen with the Zonal Jet fired up, the last few runs by the ECMWF and GFS have been showing a fairly deep low around next week end , different tracks each run. This run by the ECM showing a deepening depression as it exits the left side of the jet arrive on our shores just before it reaches it's lowest pressure. Looks very wet and windy for a time. It is still a long way out but good to get a starting point on where the models are with it.
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The LP next weekend at this stage is tracking well off the NW and not as deep as previous runs. Slow to move on and seems to spiral off the North sending in bands of rain and wind and looks to introduce a cooler N'wl and N'ly air flow the early days of next week turning cooler . The 552 Dam line is very far down S.
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GFS starting to trend much warmer for the final few days of August, possibly hinting at a warm start to September. This is a long way off outside the reliable timeframe but the fact that the schools are back around then, you can nearly bank on a warm and sunny first week back at school. Next week and beyond also looking a bit dryer than it has been recently.
warmer, dryer conditions from 23 August.
ECM also bringing in nice conditions from the 23rd
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HP certainly looks like it is trying to build next week , signs of it possibly establishing itself next week end but not without a fight maybe as looks to being put under a bit of pressure from a LP next Fri. GFS not as positive as the ECM wanting to form a cut off low meandering around Biscay and up to E of the UK over the course of a few days out to +300 but that is a long long way away. Will be interesting to see if the Azores HP builds and holds. Would be nice to finish out the summer with some settled warm weather.
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This mornings ensemble run certainly not as good as what was showing this time yesterday. Looks less warm with more uncertainty and more rainfall spikes in the chart. A definite downgrade.
Uppers look quite low on the 25th of August with the low pressure spoiling things for us from the north-west.
Warm uppers on the 26th to 29th but cold air never too far away just sitting to the north of Scotland.
It's all over by the 1st of September, with cool or very cool air plunging down from the north with low pressure back.
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the dry and settled spell from next weekend is looking like a mixed bag for us with low pressure from the north-west spoiling things at times, particularly in the west.
The East and South may get a dry, warm day on the 23rd of August, but low pressure already in place near the north-west keeping things cooler and more unsettled there.
Saturday 24th see's heights focused more towards the south-east of England as low pressure creeps in from the north-west. The east could still escape with a warm, dry day.
Sunday 25th see's low pressure slip down to our south-west, perhaps a warm or very warm and dry day in the east and possibly the north. Uppers by this stage very warm over Leinster
Monday 26th see's warm or hot air dragged up from France and central Europe. The low pressure off Kerry could still bring showers over the west and south-west. Perhaps some potential for thunder?
The uppers look high over Ireland Monday 26th-Tuesday 27th with a tongue of hot air moving north-westwards across Ireland. Looks similar to the heatwave failure in June, however uppers not quite as high as that event.
If this happens, and everything plays in our favour, then high 20's are a possibility in some parts.
Wednesday 28th see's the low off the south-west becoming more of an influence in the west, with the high uppers being squeezed out. Still very warm across the east and north. Thursday 29th see's the low crossing Ireland introducing cooler and unsettled conditions.
This upcoming warm spell is still very knife edge for my liking, this could easily go pear shaped for us with low pressures never far away from our western shore at any stage. Hopefully the next few days will continue to see this in warm spell in place with the low's keeping off shore to allow maybe the final spell of summer before Autumn.0 -
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ECMWF and GEM more positive of HP building around Ireland from about next Sunday, GFS not building it as much.
The LP towards next weekend seems to stay to our N possibly sending in a front on Sat and then Azores ridging builds after that.
Fri , Sat looking warm with Fri in the E maybe the warmest as it draws in warmer air from Europe, possibly up to mid 20's.
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ECM 12Z continues the trend of building HP from around next Sun. GFS has a deep LP around Mon / Tues, this same LP is blocked well to the NW by the ECM and GEM. I think the UKMO also looks like HP might win out nudging the LP to the N.
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Two runs by the ECM today and has dropped the chance of HP building from later this weekend. Lots of change going on so nothing definite, would have to see if a trend sets up.
What it is showing atm is just transient ridging and large area of LP developing around the weekend heading up towards Iceland possibly sending in fronts and introducing a cool NW'ly airflow with air sourced from Greenland / N. Canada. At the same time showing the Jet plunge S putting us under a cool slack air mass around mid next week. Possibly temps sub 10C at night and mid to high teens during the day at best going by the latest run.
GFS has better heights than the ECM with less of a LP forming around the week end and GEM more like the GFS .
Pure FI atm , hard to know how it will go after the weekend.
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