Advertisement
If you have a new account but can't post, please email Niamh on [email protected] for help to verify your email address. Thanks :)
New AMA with a US police officer (he's back!). You can ask your questions here

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 23-03-2019 8:49pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks


«13456789

Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    After a relatively mild few days from midweek , ECM 12Z showing it to cool down again over next weekend and looks unsettled as an area of LP coming out from Canada passes over us brining in a cold air mass and possibly producing some wintry weather from a N and NE direction in the early days after next weekend.

    Will see if it materializes .


    hWi3qYT.gif

    5ProMZh.gif

    JtkgXz1.png

    3Vb3xhR.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Farmers might need to keep an eye on forecasts next week if the sheep are out in mountainous areas.

    After Tues precipitation levels look light enough atm but would need to watch for the bit of ninja snow.

    ECM0-144_pjs7.GIF

    qN8LMGZ.png

    prxUGBp.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    An easterly flow of air looks like dominating us later this week into the second week of April but dry conditions and cool to average temperatures. Very benign and maybe damp in nature especially in eastern coasts I would think.

    ECM ensembles are strongly in favour of the easterly, the GEFS not as favoured.

    icai5ML.gif

    YqltjjF.png

    EC Clusters from last night show different variations of the easterly with an anticyclone over Scandinavia or to the north of us. The most popular scenario #1 is the most similar to this morning's ECM ensembles, #2 is a little more unsettled whilst #3 is similar to #1 but a bit more anticyclonic.

    cqhVrsV.png

    Overall, very benign outlook with no sign of a return to the zonal conditions that we had through the first half of March.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    ECM a bit of a cold outlier but funny all the same and with NAO and AO forecast to go Negative we could get a nice Easterly, just a pity it isn't January!!

    ECM0-192.gif
    ECM0-216.gif

    nao.sprd2_.gif
    ao.sprd2_.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Latest NAO forecast shows it is going very negative, image is live:

    nao.sprd2.gif


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    After a relatively milder few days next week looks like trending cooler again .

    qsuvLEq.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,089 ✭✭✭ tanko


    How is the weather for the week from Monday April 15th looking at this stage?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    tanko wrote: »
    How is the weather for the week from Monday April 15th looking at this stage?

    How's it looking +10 days in advance? You won't get an accurate answer.


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    tanko wrote: »
    How is the weather for the week from Monday April 15th looking at this stage?
    Far away


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models flip flopping atm , not all cold according to todays ECM with warm temperatures next week end. All depends on how the areas of LP develop and their position in the Atlantic and how much warm air they drag up from the S. Looks like it is going to be hard to predict weather past 5 days or so for a time.

    anim_xhm7.gif

    anim_htl3.gif


    Erii1Ka.png

    z4aKJnk.png


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM holding the warm look for the coming weekend, even warmer on the latest run showing it getting up to 18C next Sunday. Long SW'ly fetch with warm humid air sourced from the Azores. We will see if it holds.

    DSWkyfF.png

    H3Ro1EB.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Battle going on next weekend between the Atlantic weather and HP centered over Scandinavia with us on the fringes as usual , latest ECM 0Z run shows the HP keeping out a lot of the Atlantic weather. This chart would not show it as warm over the weekend but also keeping out the heaviest of the rain . Introducing cooler E'lys on the lates run.

    Interesting to see what wins out.

    EKY6V0m.png


    SsO5WxF.png


    lxNQtEP.png

    j67Zk21.png


    oD1VJ8i.png


    anim_pua2.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭ highdef


    On the upside, charts like those above will soon translate into warm and dry easterlies. Once we get to around late April and into early May, long fetch easterlies from East Europe and Russia tend to mean very nice warm weather as the source is warming up by then combined with a long land track over the warming continental Europe.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    highdef wrote: »
    On the upside, charts like those above will soon translate into warm and dry easterlies. Once we get to around late April and into early May, long fetch easterlies from East Europe and Russia tend to mean very nice warm weather as the source is warming up by then combined with a long land track over the warming continental Europe.

    easterlies in May are rarely warm, often cool along eastern areas. Most Mays we get this with Leinster struggling to get into double figures while the west get's close to or above 20C.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭ highdef


    Gonzo wrote: »
    easterlies in May are rarely warm, often cool along eastern areas. Most Mays we get this with Leinster struggling to get into double figures while the west get's close to or above 20C.

    Sorry, I should've added "except near the east coast" - I used to live on the coast in Dublin and I agree that an east breeze, even with good sunshine, was very chilly however since I moved about 40km inland (and also more sheltered), I can easily be 4 or 5c warmer than my old home during these setups.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    Gonzo wrote: »
    easterlies in May are rarely warm, often cool along eastern areas. Most Mays we get this with Leinster struggling to get into double figures while the west get's close to or above 20C.

    Rarely warm, in the east!

    I'll happily take an easterly in the west!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    HP seems to be winning the tussle next weekend opening the route for cooler E / NE 'lys . Looking much cooler than earlier runs if these charts were to verify.

    Still uncertain though .

    Quote from Met Eireann

    'The further outlook is uncertain at this stage. Weather fronts are approaching Ireland from the Atlantic on Thursday night and they may bring rain on Friday and during the weekend, but there is an equal chance that the rain will stay west of us and that it will remain largely dry over the weekend'.



    anim_qnl0.gif


    anim_pix8.gif


    jFkE5cU.png


    j4j58RE.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    BBC MeteoGroup going firmly with the east HP winning the battle for the later part of the week/weekend (the old 10 day forecast is missed :()


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭ highdef


    BBC MeteoGroup going firmly with the east HP winning the battle for the later part of the week/weekend (the old 10 day forecast is missed :()

    What old 10 day forecast was that?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    When the UK Met Office had to BBC gig the 9.55pm forecast on BBC News and the Countryfile slot (casual but clean jeans only) would give an outlook for 10 days, not much detail obviously but they'd outline the likely pressure and jetstream set up and so could at least go with broad brushstrokes about warmer/colder, wetter/drier.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭ highdef


    When the UK Met Office had to BBC gig the 9.55pm forecast on BBC News and the Countryfile slot (casual but clean jeans only) would give an outlook for 10 days, not much detail obviously but they'd outline the likely pressure and jetstream set up and so could at least go with broad brushstrokes about warmer/colder, wetter/drier.

    The 21:55 weather still broadcasts with the longer range forecast but I think what you mean is that the forecast is no longer provided by the UK Met Office?

    If it's any consolation, the UK Met Office still do a 10 day forecast online every Wednesday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oiw3CiO_FQ

    I actually prefer this online version as the forecasters don't have time limitations as they do so on broadcast TV.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    The 9.55 now is 7 days, they never go past a week. This happened from when MeteoGroup took over.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A lot of heavy rain sitting off the coast over the weekend, the kind that could produce spotl flooding if it moved a bit inland. Looks cloudy and dampish at the least along Atlantic coastal counties. Just coming into the more reliable timeframe but still uncertainty.


    TxWGloS.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    That kind of scenario reminds me a lot of early October 2016 when there was a narrow but intense band of rain which got stuck to the extreme west of the country throughout on the 3rd and Scandinavian blocking was forming to our east. The block would win the battle.

    archives-2016-10-3-12-0.png?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Latest ECM 12Z showing the rain bands holding off the coast until Sunday sometime and then possibly getting very wet and increasingly windy into Monday with gales possible as a LP system comes up from the S and tracks up along the W of Ireland. Big uncertainty on how this will pan out.

    J2BIsH4.png



    Cyck2wp.png


    1ZiSiOo.png


    AFv6cBp.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 581 ✭✭✭ Captain Snow


    Hello Arctic.. bit late for it now...

    LOL

    1ghhtl.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Looking promising - good warming week once this shiote is passed and then a "blip" early next week and then in F1 territory (+280 hours) more HP sauce.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,456 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A cooling trend again around Sun / Mon perhaps . Front could cross the country Sunday . Currently next week IMO if these charts were to happen look cool and quite wet at times , big showers possible with hail and thunderstorms maybe. A bit off so nothing certain though.

    Xwam4P1.png

    Ih9NWiH.png

    RpWDKdm.png

    jGS8PpZ.png

    Xwam4P1.png

    ywb4kzB.png

    iWh2EHU.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,805 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Looking very unsettled now from next Monday as we appear to get stuck in a trough of the jet so those low pressures will be slowly meandering around our shores.

    Still a pleasant and mild period in between now and again.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Models have trended relatively drier (much more so for the UK as Ireland still gets some outbreaks of rain and mainly cloudy skies I would have thought) and warmer overnight and this morning with easterly winds still ongoing even into mid-week.

    Obviously some uncertainty indicated here by these big changes.

    Trough centred more out west and less deep too.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



Advertisement