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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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23-03-2019 7:49pm#1
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After a relatively mild few days from midweek , ECM 12Z showing it to cool down again over next weekend and looks unsettled as an area of LP coming out from Canada passes over us brining in a cold air mass and possibly producing some wintry weather from a N and NE direction in the early days after next weekend.
Will see if it materializes .
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Farmers might need to keep an eye on forecasts next week if the sheep are out in mountainous areas.
After Tues precipitation levels look light enough atm but would need to watch for the bit of ninja snow.
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An easterly flow of air looks like dominating us later this week into the second week of April but dry conditions and cool to average temperatures. Very benign and maybe damp in nature especially in eastern coasts I would think.
ECM ensembles are strongly in favour of the easterly, the GEFS not as favoured.
EC Clusters from last night show different variations of the easterly with an anticyclone over Scandinavia or to the north of us. The most popular scenario #1 is the most similar to this morning's ECM ensembles, #2 is a little more unsettled whilst #3 is similar to #1 but a bit more anticyclonic.
Overall, very benign outlook with no sign of a return to the zonal conditions that we had through the first half of March.Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Models flip flopping atm , not all cold according to todays ECM with warm temperatures next week end. All depends on how the areas of LP develop and their position in the Atlantic and how much warm air they drag up from the S. Looks like it is going to be hard to predict weather past 5 days or so for a time.
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ECM holding the warm look for the coming weekend, even warmer on the latest run showing it getting up to 18C next Sunday. Long SW'ly fetch with warm humid air sourced from the Azores. We will see if it holds.
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Battle going on next weekend between the Atlantic weather and HP centered over Scandinavia with us on the fringes as usual , latest ECM 0Z run shows the HP keeping out a lot of the Atlantic weather. This chart would not show it as warm over the weekend but also keeping out the heaviest of the rain . Introducing cooler E'lys on the lates run.
Interesting to see what wins out.
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HP seems to be winning the tussle next weekend opening the route for cooler E / NE 'lys . Looking much cooler than earlier runs if these charts were to verify.
Still uncertain though .
Quote from Met Eireann
'The further outlook is uncertain at this stage. Weather fronts are approaching Ireland from the Atlantic on Thursday night and they may bring rain on Friday and during the weekend, but there is an equal chance that the rain will stay west of us and that it will remain largely dry over the weekend'.
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Harry Palmr wrote: »BBC MeteoGroup going firmly with the east HP winning the battle for the later part of the week/weekend (the old 10 day forecast is missed
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What old 10 day forecast was that?0 -
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A lot of heavy rain sitting off the coast over the weekend, the kind that could produce spotl flooding if it moved a bit inland. Looks cloudy and dampish at the least along Atlantic coastal counties. Just coming into the more reliable timeframe but still uncertainty.
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That kind of scenario reminds me a lot of early October 2016 when there was a narrow but intense band of rain which got stuck to the extreme west of the country throughout on the 3rd and Scandinavian blocking was forming to our east. The block would win the battle.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Latest ECM 12Z showing the rain bands holding off the coast until Sunday sometime and then possibly getting very wet and increasingly windy into Monday with gales possible as a LP system comes up from the S and tracks up along the W of Ireland. Big uncertainty on how this will pan out.
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A cooling trend again around Sun / Mon perhaps . Front could cross the country Sunday . Currently next week IMO if these charts were to happen look cool and quite wet at times , big showers possible with hail and thunderstorms maybe. A bit off so nothing certain though.
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Interesting that ECM and GFS are not miles apart showing some very unsettled weather at the end of next week around Fri /Sat. Both showing deep areas of LP, different track and timing but both showing very cold uppers being drawn in over us. The Jet fired up as well and both showing it to the South of us.
The weather is going to be hard to predict as large areas of Lp take up residence and influence our weather from midweek, with the jet powering up and with sharp temperature gradients wave depressions could form which can spring up very quickly in such a set up ,then all depends on track and timing.
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Still trending unsettled next weekend with the models currently showing windy if not stormy weather late Fri into Sat and very wet. Early days and could look different in a couple of days but worth keeping an eye on.
All the models showing colder uppers , ECM leading the way.
Jet looks fired up and to the S of us letting in the colder airmas.
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Reminds me of the early stages of how the models tracked what was to become Storm Hannah. Closer to the S of Ireland on the latest 12Z run from the ECM. Still very much in the unreliable time frame, worth keeping an eye on though.
Not showing very strong winds at this stage , Jet to the S of it which could ramp up the wind speeds .
Currently looks like heavy and possibly thundery rain around Weds.
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So there has been a trend for the coming week's unsettled spell to be relatively short-lived with high pressure quickly reasserting itself somewhere close to Ireland but as it's more than 5 days out, there is obviously going to be some uncertainty and disagreement on the placement of the high which is vital to seeing where gets the chance of sunshine and what the temperatures will be like.
Latest ECM shows an area of high pressure over us and pushing to the northeast drawing in an easterly flow though starting off as a cool northerly flow meaning it'd be cold at first but as the high would stick around for a few days, it would get relatively warmer with the land warming up by the strong May sunshine.
This pattern is somewhat similar to the Easter period but high pressure is a bit further north as low pressure is rather deep in the North Atlantic out to the west of Ireland. Whether this would be a cut off low where the low undercuts to Iberia like those that did during Easter or not, would be important for the high to develop over us and be a blocked pattern or migrate northwards and form another northern blocking anticyclone like this coming week.
ECM clusters have not updated since Friday evening so these are the ECM 12z clusters from Friday. Full agreement at t216 that some sort of ridge will build into the country from the south but centred well to our south and deep low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean. This would be dry but cloudy I would have thought with southwesterly to westerly winds being the dominance.
Things started differing a few days after on these clusters with 4 different placements of the high pressure.
Scenario #1 shows one similar to t216 but the high is further north so more of a chance of sunny spells particularly in the sunny southeast as the moisture layered southwesterlies are pushed northwards with the jet stream.
Scenario #2 shows high pressure blocking to our north with a little ridge coming through the country into Iberia. This would be a bit more unsettled as the high is too far north to really take over the pattern and the low pressure is too close to the west for comfort. Looks sort of similar to mid-April, the period just before Easter.
Scenario #3 shows a large area of high pressure centred right over top of us. This is the best case scenario if you want dry and fine weather. It would be initially cool at first due to the northerly flow from a few days before but it would become gradually warmer and warmer as the strong May sun shines.
Scenario #4 shows high pressure just to the east of the UK with low pressure in the Atlantic. This would result in long fetched southerly to southwesterly winds I would have thought which would be cloudy and humid - warmest conditions in the east of the country.
Latest GFS is very similar to the ECM with a northerly flow at first veering to easterly but high pressure building through the country (although later in FI builds the high as a northern blocking feature essentially repeating the coming week's pattern).
Overall, looks like the unsettled spell will be short-lived with an area of high pressure building in by the end of the second week of May but staying cool for a time with temperatures gradually warming up a little.
Long way out so pinch of salt as ever with FI.Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Looking through the ECM 12Z tonight would give doubt atm to any signs of a significant warm up for the next 10 days . In a polar sourced airmass all week coming and there is a tussle going on between N'ly sourced air and ridging from the S around next week end . Just one run and might firm up with a more warm theme in the next couple of runs but no great sign atm. The Jet in general keeping S of us.
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GFS 12z pumping up a very warm run this evening with the UK & Ireland just missing out on the northerly flow around the 12th which goes into Scandinavia as high pressure builds over us and just to our east allowing the winds to turn into the south. Just goes to show ya how much can change with small differences in positioning of pressure systems.
Looks almost record breaking-like over Iberia. Would be a big change from early May.
Reasonable support within the GEFS at the same time (which is kinda surprising as this is quite a new scenario) for some sort of southerly to southeasterly wind (although not full on as the operational run suggests) to become established with the centre of high pressure building just to the east of the UK.
GFS OP is one of the warmest members as you'd imagine with such a warm run so not quite as warm with the GEFS mean but the 10c isotherm (which it does show) over Ireland is very good for May.
Will see if the ECM latches on to this scenario and show a similar position change in the northerly wind with Ireland just missing it. ECM clusters from this morning's 0z all very indicative of high pressure over top of us at the same time frame as the GFS above. Not quite a southerly flow though as it's not to the east of the UK.
Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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Too early for a spanish plume from that, sryan?
GFS OP did show some charts that I would characterise of a spanish plume yes which would be mad given it's May. One point in its run, it tries to get close to the pattern of late May last year and May 2017 too when there was a southerly flow (and 27c) followed by thundery rain for some. Long way out though and a rather warm outlier.
ECM 12z is now cutting off that northerly flow for Ireland with warmer air filtering up from the south this time next week on its run. High pressure establishing to the east and ridging over us. Not as warm as the GFS.
ICON was similar to the GFS. I won't even describe the GEM of what it showed for the UK
. Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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sryanbruen wrote: »GFS OP did show some charts that I would characterise of a spanish plume yes which would be mad given it's May. One point in its run, it tries to get close to the pattern of late May last year and May 2017 too when there was a southerly flow (and 27c) followed by thundery rain for some. Long way out though and a rather warm outlier.
ECM 12z is now cutting off that northerly flow for Ireland with warmer air filtering up from the south this time next week on its run. High pressure establishing to the east and ridging over us. Not as warm as the GFS.
ICON was similar to the GFS. I won't even describe the GEM of what it showed for the UK .
May last year? Thundery rain ?
It was the best lightning storm witnessed in this country for quite a number of years.0 -
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GFS 0z yet again a warm run with high pressure to our east drawing in a southeasterly airflow rather than southerly so cooler than its 12z yesterday (whilst still on the warmest side of the GEFS) but nevertheless, still talking low 20s for a few fair places by this time next week if it were to verify.
The pattern it establishes seems like one that could keep getting established again and again with brief westerly incursions, as ridging from the Azores attempts to build.
ECM is similar to the GFS pretty much with high pressure to our east drawing in a southeasterly wind which turns into an easterly later on as pressure rises to our north.
ECM clusters from its 12z yesterday pretty much the same as their 0z runs with high pressure certain for next week, just small differences in exact positioning.
Signals looking very strong now for a warm up early next week with high pressure becoming established but still time for changes.Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/
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ECM certainly looking a whole lot better for warmth next week. Currently looking like improving from Sunday and getting that bit warmer each day until getting up to the low 20's by about Tues next and on the present charts looks to stay up to the low 20's in places until the end of the run ( Fri ). LP pressing from the Atlantic so will have to see how the high pressure holds out. Currently looks like very little precipitation next week.
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