Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

Deleted User wrote: »

antigen tests are a very legitimate solution when there is slack w.r.t. ICU spaces in Hospitals.
You seem to be intent on deflecting from the Health Service's adject inability to deliver sufficient ICU spaces.

I'm not deflecting from the lack of capacity in the health service, it happens every year and this time the health service has been found out with it's pants down. But being unhappy with that changes nothing, we have the capacity we have and that's what we have to work with.

It takes years to build up ICU capacity, not six months. The most that could've been fine was to add a handful of extra beds - which was done. You simply cannot magic the equipment and more importantly the trained staff to man them out of thin air - anyone involved in a highly specialized sector such as aviation should be able to grasp that.

There is no slack with the hospitals ICU. The only spare capacity is surge capacity and then you are into postponing and cancelling non-covid treatments.

California Dreamer wrote: »

.......wanders in looking for aviation stuff.......nothing here........ :P

So, Emirates flying 4 x A380's and a triple 7 into London on Wednesday... maybe a lot of people coming and going before the lockdown?

The system is coming in, but there's only one entire country that's orange currently - Latvia.

That's not a domestic decision but a Europe-wide one.

We've the seventh lowest rates currently and we're still red - its been obvious for weeks that there were going to be very few if any orange or green countries.

Deleted User wrote: »

Doesn't matter for me at this stage...ALL my flights have been cancelled by Ryanair and Aer Lingus. Aer Lingus sent me a number of mails yesterday cancelling all my flights. Connectivity in to the Country is wiped out.
Now that connectivity is wiped out the Authorities can talk all they want about relaxing rules knowing that the airlines can't afford to add flights at short notice which will fly near empty. I may be very willing to fly once restrictions are lifted but I and most people can't just book flights on a whim and need to plan when we travel weeks in advance so we can't fill those planes if they were to fly.

What were the rough dates for your flights? I am just curious to see how far ahead they are looking?

Deleted User wrote: »

November through to New Year.
Ryanair have scheduled a skeleton service closer to Xmas but at a very inconvenient 6.30 in the morning.

Aer Lingus have doubled-to-tripled LHR-DUB prices in November in the last day or two. This is going to hurt because I simply cannot push back returning to Dublin another month..

Ireland is now 5th lowest on the ECDC map at 205.1

Norway+Finland are the only fully yellow countries as of today

Tenzor07 wrote: »

The impact on the aviation industry is that passengers will now see the results of airlines having to park up aircraft due to lack of demand, cut routes and increase load factors on the flights that actually do take place... all this adds up to less capacity, less choice, higher costs...
...this time next year unless things change drastically then you'll see the end of high frequency low cost flights....it may even end up being cheaper to get the ferry and train/bus to London...

Its long been cheaper to get the ferry and the train. Sail Rail Dublin to London is €50. It just takes forever and isn't that convenient - lots of waiting around.

If flights are too expensive, the price but not time sensitive will be on the boat.

donkey balls wrote: »

3.5 hours on the ferry 6/7 drive down to London not including 45min break for the driver on the way down, Compared 45/60 mins on a flight.

That's the bus, which costs more than sail rail even though it takes longer. The train leaving liverpool st. at 4pm will have you in Dublin by 6am. It's a long haul alright.

I can't see why anyone would be considering it for Christmas though unless money was very very tight. Aside from the Saturday before Christmas (over £400), the fares from Heathrow to Dublin don't look out of the ordinary - if anything they look a bit low, given the week.

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Apologies if its been mentioned previously but with Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing. Cases really high on both sides so maybe unlikely now but hopefully in the next few months.

You think getting a private PCR test will suffice in advance of travel?

Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing

First let me say I hope everyone in the aviation industry gets through this.


However the USA have the highest rates in the world. Only quarantine is proven to work at the moment and that wont' bring flying back in any serious shape until a serious testing regime is in-place backed by travel insurance.

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That's the bus, which costs more than sail rail even though it takes longer. The train leaving liverpool st. at 4pm will have you in Dublin by 6am. It's a long haul alright.

I can't see why anyone would be considering it for Christmas though unless money was very very tight. Aside from the Saturday before Christmas (over £400), the fares from Heathrow to Dublin don't look out of the ordinary - if anything they look a bit low, given the week.

Just to correct this.

The overnight sail/rail really isn't offered anymore, as the connecting trains into/out of the ships have not operated for several years.

Daytime does have proper rail connections and you can leave Dublin Port at 08:20 on Stena Line and be in London Euston for 17:00.

In the reverse direction, you can leave London Euston currently at 08:40 and be in Dublin Port for 17:15.

Sail/Rail to London is priced at EUR 59 each way.

Avoation1091 wrote: »

Apologies if its been mentioned previously but with Biden elected now one would hope that the EU-US Travel can be lifted and include testing. Cases really high on both sides so maybe unlikely now but hopefully in the next few months.

I doubt it'll change under Biden until a vaccine is found. He's going to take COVID more seriously than Trump.

There won't be any material change to transatlantic travel until a vaccine is in widespread use, at best you'd be looking at the second half of 2021 for that but honestly I reckon it'll be the following summer before you see anything like a 'normal' transatlantic schedule.

Hopefully this is recognized by the Government and sufficient supports are given to the industry in that interim period - otherwise ramping up capacity when demand returns in earnest will be quite painful.

Incredible to see the chinese domestic market fully recovered. More passengers in Sep than the previous year (based on data from Air China, Chine Eastern and China Southern).

Zero Covid FTW

necessary draconian 14-day quarantine on international arrivals to enable same. Same for Aus and NZ who now have a shared travel zone.


Any resumption of flights would need to have the same sort of look. To take the closest example ROI and UK's CTA would need to impose similar but if we did it would let ROI-UK get going again , but I can't see the brits or certain parts of our own economy going for it.

IF Europe as a bloc decided to do same you'd need frontex and border force all on the same page ( and we're not part of frontex as not in Schengen ) plus all 28 EU, Norway, and Switzerland , highly unlikely

IAG shares currently roaring up by 35%, other airline stocks following.

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54873105

This is good news. No qualifications needed.

Qualifications are needed. This data, while successful is from early stage data, and less than 100 infected (according to the expert on Rte news at one). So while the data is extremely promising, it does little to really tell us of efficacy in the long term or in large populations. All we know is that it works and is likely to be safe. How well it works for and how long it works for remain to be determined

But as I said in an earlier post, we are on the road to a vaccine and today is a good day for humanity.

Deleted User wrote: »

No, enough of your negativity you Gloom Monger.
Pfizer is not a fly by night(sic) operation and would not issue news in which they have no confidence which Investors would rely upon when making investment decisions.
"Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised."

Please point to what I said was wrong. It's not to be gloomy but to put a bit of realism on a PR release. The data they've released reflects the reality more than what the talking heads give on the lunchtime business shows. I have full confidence in the data, what I don't have confidence in is people inferring conclusions that are not supported by the data.

I said it was a good day, but to paint it as the end of the road for this is stretching it.

bikeman1 wrote: »

Does anyone envisage a type of vaccine passport to travel?

It must be a likely proposition to give comfort to the receiving country that you are less of a risk to them? How would it work in reality?

Little yellow book...

Wait we have had this for decades already

bk wrote: »

To be clear, the data comes from the Phase 3 trial, in which 43,538 people participated in over 6 months and 38,955 got the vaccine, the rest got a placebo.

Of those 43,538 people in the trial, only 94 people developed Covid-19 during the trial. They then looked at those 94 people and found 90% of them were people from the Placebo group, with only 9 people having gotten the vaccine (thus the 90%).

To be clear, the whole point of this type of vaccine, is that most vaccinated people shouldn't get infected with Covid19, that the vaccine protects them from it.

The fact that just 9 people out of 38,955 got Covid19 is fantastic news. Plus the news that it seems to be safe with no notable severe side effects.

BTW They are also studying if those who got the vaccine, but still got Covid19, perhaps developed less serious symptoms then they might otherwise have, something that is often seen with other vaccines. They can help turn a possibly deadly virus into just flu like symptoms for a few days.

Of course I should point out that the paper has yet to be peer reviewed. Nor do we have info on how long the vaccine lasts.

The other slight downside is that this particular vaccine needs to be stored at -80c, which will complicate distribution. Though they are researching if it will also work at normal fridge temperature.

BBTW Also cool that people here in Dublin are involved in it's creation and testing.

Overall it is really good news, much better then previously hoped.

Don't get me wrong, it's great news. What I'm cautioning against is getting ahead of ourselves. The PR is promising but the data is currently absent and this is an interim update.

I've noticed a tendency in online discussion today to argue a case for widespread abandonment of restrictions now because we have a vaccine. We are closer to one but we don't have one. We will see restrictions well past Christmas and into the new year but one hopes that the vaccine will prevent the third wave with normalcy resuming in Feb/March (a whole year of this ****). If you're thinking of a flight and it's at a good price now for next Summer, I'd advise to book.

I've long said here that the real challenge for aviation is the post covid market, if they can get through the current crisis. A lot of posters here seem to think that it will revert just like it was pre 2020 while I've questioned that assumption. In the immediate aftermath, aviation will be dealing with a lack of supply, an eagerness to make up lost revenue, pressures from new ways of doing business among other challenges. Policymakers will be looking at travel where once supporting connectivity was seen as essential to supporting economic growth and development. If new ways of business mean that is no longer the case will aviation still receive such support? For example I wouldn't be surprised to see an EU wide tax on aviation fuel in two/three years time at the point where aviation is showing signs of recovery in order to limit it's resurgence.

bk wrote: »

Again, this isn't just PR. They have released the data widely in the medical and scientific community and the FDA have all the data already.

The early reaction from the scientific community to the data is that this is looking as almost as good as you could hope for. It is also very good news for all the other vaccines under development (they all target the same spike protein).

It basically proves that Covid19 is very amendable to vaccination.



Oh, that is crazy! We still have a long way to go. Even if released in December/January, that will most likely only be for front long health care workers. The vast majority of us will be lucky to get it (or other vaccines) before next summer.

We are likely to still get hit by a third wave and probably will need another lock down February/March unfortunately.

But at least there is some light at the end of the tunnel.

Sorry, PR = press release. To my knowledge they haven't released the data yet and lots of questions still remain unanswered. I'm not trying to pour cold water on the progress announced today but inject a little realism.

I would hope that if it's approved by the end of this year that the most vulnerable will get it quickly, meaning a meaning a return to travel shortly after. I suspect that the yellow book or some sort of covid visa will be needed to cross most borders or isolation and testing if one refuses.

I wonder will the carrot of the foreign holiday improve uptake? Based off a poll a few weeks ago a large minority were planning to refuse the vaccines. The idea of a week in tenerife I suspect we'll change more than a few anti vaxers minds.