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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

245

Comments

  • #52
    US2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭US2


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Meteo Weather on the BBC very bullish about HP in about 8/9 days - the two main models seem to disagree with one another but neither is that strong on a stable spell developing for more than a couple of days. GEM in the other hand sees a very different set up. HP from 180 hours and out.

    Saw that myself, unusual to hear them so certain over a week out


  • #53
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Weighted ensemble temperature departure for Europe for day 10 to 15. This has been showing up for the last few runs now so perhaps a trend being locked onto?

    qjFokYc.png

    New Moon



  • #54
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    for the past few days, the GFS has been trending colder and colder. Looks like we are now entering a fairly cool spell, which may bring below average temperatures right into the first week of November.
    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-10-23&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Start of November looks dryish but certainly chilly with daytime temperatures in the single digits. There is potential to see more frost over the next 2 weeks then most of us saw throughout last winter which wouldn't be hard!

    GFSOPEU06_240_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png


  • #55
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    A cold north-easterly plunge was on the cards (F1 style) but now looks like the HP will actually push it away before an Atlantic flow begins to reestablish itself at the two week mark. Until then good news for potato farmers.


  • #56
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    A cold north-easterly plunge was on the cards (F1 style) but now looks like the HP will actually push it away before an Atlantic flow begins to reestablish itself at the two week mark. Until then good news for potato farmers.

    It's FI style, not F1 style..... Fantasy Island style, not Formula 1 style. :P

    By the way, what model is your source regarding your forecast?


  • #57
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Small bit of eye candy for the first week of November. The GFS teases us, as usual from here on in till April….

    LAvhEZL.png


  • #58
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    highdef wrote: »
    It's FI style, not F1 style..... Fantasy Island style, not Formula 1 style. :P

    By the way, what model is your source regarding your forecast?

    the GSF last night, developing HP to the north west which hangs about pushes down over, us retreats a bit and then is pushed south and east as the Atlantic reasserts itself but quite weakly over Ireland from Nov 5th/6th. The possible cold snap doesn't look like happening really, just chilly early winter for 4/5 days end of next week, start of week after.


  • #59
    Captain Snow
    Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    the GSF last night, developing HP to the north west which hangs about pushes down over, us retreats a bit and then is pushed south and east as the Atlantic reasserts itself but quite weakly over Ireland from Nov 5th/6th. The possible cold snap doesn't look like happening really, just chilly early winter for 4/5 days end of next week, start of week after.

    Early November Looking Cold?



  • #60
    Kamili
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    With the cold bias on GFS teasing all the time, what are people's thoughts on whether it would be relied upon as much on longer range forcasts if the other models aren't showing similar set ups?

    Are people starting to doubt it?


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  • #61
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    GFS looking good for snow (GFS) in November....about as likely as Southampton losing 9-0 at home to Leicester


  • #62
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,897 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    With the clocks back tonight each model run will now be an hour earlier - GFS start, 3:30 am/pm - ECM start, 6:00 am/pm...etc


  • #63
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM, GFS and GEM all showing areas of LP moving towards us and staying close by or over us next weekend. Looks Quite wet at times and on the cool side. ECM not showing particularly strong winds with this, breezy / windy on coasts. UKMO bit slower bringing the LP towards us but it does show a deepening depression close by heading Eastwards or Northeastwards. GEM showing windy weather.

    Models are showing the Jet taking a more Southerly route below Ireland.

    UieldBl.gif

    bBOqeKY.png

    4YlV2uQ.png


  • #64
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    UKMO aand ECM showing a deep area of LP around next Sunday. GFS and GEM also showing something similar although at this stage track and timing different with all the models. ECM and UKMO looks quite windy Sunday at this stage. Looks quite unsettled from next weekend well into the following week.

    O4vZuad.png

    lcUAn8p.png

    UYDQ9Uj.png

    Kdu5yEw.png


  • #65
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next week looks deeply unsettled and quite cool at times:

    This Sunday looks very wet with a deep area of low pressure over us:
    GFSOPEU06_120_1.png

    Tuesday looks cold and showery with north to north-east winds, possible wintryness over high ground.
    GFSOPEU06_177_1.png

    Cold and wet conditions lasting into the week, perhaps some cold rain or sleetyness at times.

    GFSOPEU06_231_1.png

    GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

    a brief attempt at something warmer by 12th of November but it doesn't last long.

    GFSOPEU06_336_1.png


  • #66
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,897 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    UW144-21.GIF?29-18

    Some interesting synoptic evolutions starting to show up for next week. Varying on a theme of a northeasterly element and trough disruption.

    Could yet turn out to be a cold week next week.


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  • #67
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    charts updating, I'm getting cold just looking at what could be in store for early next week. Could be quite a windchill.


  • #68
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Novemberrrrr has been trending cold for quite a while now. I think 7c will be the temperature a lot of the days and maybe 2 or 3c at night. Just wet to me. Cant see snow in those charts....yet


  • #69
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pauldry wrote: »
    Novemberrrrr has been trending cold for quite a while now. I think 7c will be the temperature a lot of the days and maybe 2 or 3c at night. Just wet to me. Cant see snow in those charts....yet

    yeah looks mostly wet so far. This mornings runs not quite as chilly as what was showing yesterday.Still mostly unsettled with plenty of rain or showers. The wind will certainly make it feel colder than reality.


  • #70
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cool if not cold general trend seems to be sticking . ECM showing plenty of cold frosty nights.



    anim_ood3.gif

    UW144-7_fts3.GIF


    wrNcQxe.png

    anim_bbs3.gif


  • #71
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    next week is indeed looking fairly chilly from Monday, especially next weekend, this is then followed by a milder trend.

    Next Saturday looks very chilly, day time temperatures around mid single digits and an easterly component to the wind, which could possibly allow streamers to form in some eastern coastal areas. It probably won't be cold enough for snow to settle, but wintry showers can't be ruled out. However this is still a week away.

    GFSOPEU06_195_1.png

    Uppers look fairly cold too:
    GFSOPEU06_195_2.png

    Possible streamer activity: This would most likely be rain and sleet mix.
    192-574UK.GIF?01-6


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  • #72
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,897 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Shades of 2010 in some of the charts with trough disruption occasionally allowing in some artic air through the Scandinavia route. This in spite of an increase of zonal winds in the northern hemisphere (same as the winters of 2010). But there is a way to go see any upgrades on this and for charts to come closer to fruition.

    I'm actually cautiously optimistic though. There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.


  • #73
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.

    There's been a fairly angry Atlantic since September 20th, but it has quietened down a bit. Hopefully we can give it a 3 month sleeping tablet! I'm in the mood to face the great white Siberian Army once again!


  • #74
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Shades of 2010 in some of the charts with trough disruption occasionally allowing in some artic air through the Scandinavia route. This in spite of an increase of zonal winds in the northern hemisphere (same as the winters of 2010). But there is a way to go see any upgrades on this and for charts to come closer to fruition.

    I'm actually cautiously optimistic though. There is no angry Atlantic on the march so far which is a positive sign.
    Im of the same mindset Kermit. This could be the one. In 2000 we had lots of snow and 2010 too so maybe 19/20.

    Certainly think a snowier Winter than past few is on the cards.

    Atlantic has been pummelling us since August. Think there might be a lot of days though where people ask "its freezin. How come its still raining?"


  • #75
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    Almost time to set up this year's Stratosphere Watch thread I reckon, -80 isotherm finally showing up on the FI charts signalling Polar Vortex liftoff. A lot of chatter about how disconnected the strat and trop are this year which should make for an interesting thread! I'll leave it to Sryan or Meteorite to give one of ye'r epic introductory posts for folks new to Strat Watch and away we go :cool:


  • #76
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    hatrickpatrick wrote: »
    Almost time to set up this year's Stratosphere Watch thread I reckon, -80 isotherm finally showing up on the FI charts signalling Polar Vortex liftoff. A lot of chatter about how disconnected the strat and trop are this year which should make for an interesting thread! I'll leave it to Sryan or Meteorite to give one of ye'r epic introductory posts for folks new to Strat Watch and away we go :cool:

    Here ya go, I did the honours. :D

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058027477

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #77
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,897 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The Beast from the East knocking on our door on the latest GFS run this morning through mid month.

    ECM a lot more sober.

    Interesting times ahead.


  • #78
    leahyl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    The Beast from the East knocking on our door on the latest GFS run this morning through mid month.

    ECM a lot more sober.

    Interesting times ahead.

    Could it be 2010 all over again?! :-D


  • #79
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    leahyl wrote: »
    Could it be 2010 all over again?! :-D

    There was a lot of hype mid-November last year for the same prospects mind you. More promise this year with the drivers but let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #80
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    There was a lot of hype mid-November last year for the same prospects mind you. More promise this year with the drivers but let's not count our chickens before they're hatched.

    The GFS in particular should be taken with a pinch of salt. Remember when it kept showing 2010-style charts last November run after run?


  • #81
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    The GFS in particular should be taken with a pinch of salt. Remember when it kept showing 2010-style charts last November run after run?

    My point exactly. I'll show one example in particular from the 12z on 13 November 2018. See how the setup progresses from a Euro High to a big Scandi High retrogressing to a Greenland High (the Scandi High verified however and I think it was record breaking for November).

    vXTDKW5.gif

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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  • #82
    Hooter23
    Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    I think we are overdue a cold winter by now...our cold mostly arrived around spring time over the last few years as it usually does anyway


  • #83
    Reversal
    Registered Users Posts: 403 ✭✭Reversal


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    The GFS in particular should be taken with a pinch of salt. Remember when it kept showing 2010-style charts last November run after run?

    It has been the same the last number of Novembers. Very strange.


  • #84
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,897 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Plenty of cold air pooling over Scandinavia through the coming week.

    gfs-1-150.png?12

    Just need the trigger to send it this direction. If we maintain the jet profile trend of sending cut-off areas of low pressure northwest -> southeast we are in with a real shot later in the month.


  • #85
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    latest gfs ensembles are interesting, been watching them closely over the past few days. They have been showing a cool to cold first 10 days of November with a warming trend towards the end. Over the past few days the return to normal values has been getting pushed back with the cool spell getting more prolonged. Will be interesting if this continues the pattern through the coming week.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2019-11-03&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Nothing terribly cold on the horizon but certainly looking chilly. As we get into the later stages of November, the chances of these cold rain systems and showers turning to sleet or snow would increase, once we continue to keep the mild air out of our way.


  • #86
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    The current early November pattern is remarkably similar to that of the early November pattern of 2009, with lows tending to dive bomb Ireland from the WNW rather than the WSW. One advantage is that this keeps warm air from penetrating too far into the Norwegian sea area, which would give this region some precious time to have a much needed cool down.

    New Moon



  • #87
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Think the mild will eventually push through but 6 to 9c looks our lot after midweek for a few days and tips of mountains may be dusted in snow


  • #88
    Villain
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    A rather blue looking FI :D

    coldnov1.gif


  • #89
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Need GFS to predict 14 days of snow in a row and we might get one. So far the mild is making no inroads.

    Probably cold for most of Novembrr then extremely mild and misty in December


  • #90
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    ECM this morning, pretty chilly with lows sliding and disrupting on an ever more NW-SE trajectory - A few tweaks and this is very cold by day 9/10...

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png


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  • #91
    highdef
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,323 ✭✭✭highdef


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    ECM this morning, pretty chilly with lows sliding and disrupting on an ever more NW-SE trajectory - A few tweaks and this is very cold by day 9/10...

    ECMOPEU00_192_1.png
    Agreed, if this trend continues things will be getting very interesting in a few weeks time.


  • #92
    sideswipe
    Registered Users Posts: 2,432 ✭✭✭sideswipe


    I would love to start getting excited but alas we've been here many times before, eye candy charts that seem to vanish in more reliable time frames.
    Doesn't seem to matter if its summer or winter most of the models seem to struggle to predict the weather on our little island perhaps more than anywhere else on the planet. Predictably unpredictable.

    I hope we are starting to see one of those 1 in 10 year occasions where everything lines up, would love some proper wintery weather!


  • #93
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    No matter how cold it gets in Sligo it seems to rain most of the time. Even in 2010 when it was minus 9.4c which is my weather stations record low, it was raining and freezing on impact with the road

    But on January 31st this year there was lots of snow even though it was 3c. Its hard to fathom it.


  • #94
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,996 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    I see the likes of Oslo are already seeing day time highs below zero degrees. Maybe a sign that some cold is starting to build. It’s only early November


  • #95
    Kamili
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    pauldry wrote: »
    No matter how cold it gets in Sligo it seems to rain most of the time. Even in 2010 when it was minus 9.4c which is my weather stations record low, it was raining and freezing on impact with the road

    But on January 31st this year there was lots of snow even though it was 3c. Its hard to fathom it.

    I'd give anything to see freezing rain, its fairly rare!


  • #96
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Sure is. See more mild muck breaking out on each GFS run. Now Id say after midmonth itl get mild. But maybe the next cold outbreak will being the snozzle


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  • #97
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    pauldry wrote: »
    Sure is. See more mild muck breaking out on each GFS run. Now Id say after midmonth itl get mild. But maybe the next cold outbreak will being the snozzle

    I thought yesterdays GFS run had a milder end to it. It is still showing a return to normal values by the 17th of November but that's a long way off and there is uncertainty about the return to mild. The next few days will tell if the mild trend for the second half of November holds any weight.


  • #98
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Kamili wrote: »
    I'd give anything to see freezing rain, its fairly rare!

    Experienced it in Cork on Christmas day 2009 and never want to experience it again. Absolutely lethal - everyone falling around the place with lots of injuries suffered and driving a car virtually suicidal.


  • #99
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yes my car slid all the way down the hill at our house n only for the speed bump would hv ended up 300 yards down the road. Some kids pushed it back up to the house at the time. Impossible to drive on. Dried up the next day and it was minus 13 in some places


  • #100
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Interesting to see the phantom high latitude blocking evaporate from GFS output overnight and this morning. Typical sequence in the models for the time of year. The outlook now for a mega-powered jet sending horribly cold northwesterlies across ireland, with plenty showers and rain bands. Usual deep cold plunges a plenty for north and east USA.


  • #101
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,718 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    Interesting to see the phantom high latitude blocking evaporate from GFS output overnight and this morning. Typical sequence in the models for the time of year. The outlook now for a mega-powered jet sending horribly cold northwesterlies across ireland, with plenty showers and rain bands. Usual deep cold plunges a plenty for north and east USA.

    That deep cold sinking down into northeast USA usually fires up the Atlantic!!


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