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Hurricane Dorian
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30-08-2019 4:16pm#1Hurricane Dorian does look ominous for Florida and sooner for parts of the Bahamas. It's forecast to be a Major Hurricane in the next 24 hours and could be a Category four on landfall somewhere along Floridas East coast.
NHC Discussion 251. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely in portions of the northwestern Bahamas, where a
hurricane watch is in effect. Residents should execute their
hurricane plan and listen to advice given by local emergency
officials.
2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm
surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their hurricane
plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
...
INIT 30/1500Z 24.5N 69.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 25.3N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 27.0N 80.4W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/1200Z 29.0N 81.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
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Max winds now 100 kts, with higher gusts, however the highest winds are confined to a very small area around the northeastern eyewall and the 64-kt winds extend only out to 25 miles from the centre. Still a small wind-field but it should expand a bit more from here now as the eye has fully formed.
Latest visible image from a few.mins ago.
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Ocean Heat Content shows Dorian currently in relatively shallow warm layer, moving into a slightly deeper pool later tomorrow. However, as it slows down, upwelling should offset some of the intensification and lower shear. Such a delicate balance of many competing factors makes this compelling viewing!
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »"Kermit the Frog" (NOAA42) will be flying through the eye shortly to confirm a major CAT 4 hurricane. All female crew - a first too.
The eye has really been clearing out in the last few hours.
Yeah really cleared out now. Latest sat looks to me a high end Cat 3 if not a Cat 4.
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Eye looking fairly symmetrical now. Intensifying. Very deep convection increasing around the eye. Now a major Hurricane with winds near 115mph / 185 km/h / 100 knts
NHC saying upper level environment and high SST's leading Dorian to become an extremely dangerous Hurricane yet depending on the steering currents very uncertain if it will go inland, keep near the shore or offshore. Models are suggesting that it could turn and veer up along and near the coast . Could slow and stall just off the Florida coast before turning up the coast.
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
It's there abouts CAT 4, a small bit shy perhaps - that pressure drop though.... This will be CAT 4 sooner rather than later.
Will be well into Cat 4 next advisory I’d say. That pressure drop is phenomenal. Should looks stunning on satellite tomorrow.
Small storm though.0 -
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I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.
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Gaoth Laidir wrote: »I still think it's increasingly likely that this may not actually make landfall at all and could stay offshore, at least until it moves well north. The more it slows down the more chance an upper trough over the US has to dig down and pull it away northwards. The models are all going that way too, and by this time tomorrow these charts could look very different.
The eye staying just offshore (as most models currently indicate) is worst possible scenario.
Well off shore or straight onland for the eye is best scenario.0 -
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The overall offshore trend continues, so the focus should be shifting away from the US and more on the Bahamas, which will be most effected by this. If it does affect the Carolinas its will most likely be in a much reduced state, with increased shear and drier air taking their toll.
In the meantime, we should start to see some eyewall replacement cycles affect the overall intensity, so with a bit of luck that plus the Bahamas islands will limit the effects there. Those max winds quoted really are still only in a very tiny area.0 -
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