FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

typhoony wrote: »

UKMO only goes out to 120hrs however it seems to be onboard with the change to milder more settled conditions, hopefully we'll get some 12c/13c by the end of next week into the weekend

next weekend is looking rather cool with cool zonal conditions, after that we may get something a bit milder. Still no signs of that PV losing power so any chances of high pressure will be short lived. The ECM not really on board with the brief spell of high pressure around the 22nd/23rd of February, it keeps it just to our south.

I'm now at the transitional weather dream stage do I look at the charts for upcoming mild/warm and settled spells with hints of spring like conditions or do I make a last ditch effort to try and find some early spring cold before the game is over for another year!

nacho libre wrote: »

On the last GFS run there was hints at a cold end to February due to heights building out west, which might allow for a northern toppler, i doubt it will happen, though, what's more likely is a continuation of what we already have.

already gone on latest run, like all cold runs this winter, they don't last more than 1 or 2 runs before it's back to those relentless westerlies.

and here are all tonights gfs runs combined showing a definite cooling trend as we head towards March and the possibility of a cold spell. A bit more supportive this time around. But we've been here many times for this to change very quickly back to mild. Tomorrows runs will most likely drop this idea to continue to move it on like a carrot on a stick.

RobertKK wrote: »

I was chatting with a Dutch friend and he said they had no snow so far where he is - which happens to be in the highest part of that country.
They had some snow across Eastern Europe already but they are having an exceptional winter too with a lack of proper cold that one would expect.

friend of mine living in inland southern Sweden says no snow there all winter either, which is really exceptional for their location. They had some snow during the Autumn before the extremely mild winter got going early November. Temperature anomolies continue to show +2 to +5C above average for the next month in the region.

Last nights cold GFS run is of course completely different now and the cold toppler get's shifted much further eastwards and only really affects northern Scandinavia.

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

It’s been a scary mild winter in continental Europe. Places like Poland showing up to +14 degrees!! Moscow been above 0 degrees so much this winter. Places like Stockholm getting no snow this winter. Scay stuff

I reckon I've seen more snow over the past week than parts of Sweden and Denmark have all winter and most of it has just been random flakes in the air, not sticking to anything!

Next week does look chilly, but once again it is Atlantic based stuff so anything that falls will either melt on impact or will be a very transitional dusting. Uppers of -6 to -8 from the Atlantic is marginal, snow may fall but sticking is unlikely away from high ground. Temperatures look similar to the zonal cold spells of recent times so I'd expect next week to be similar. Leinster may not do as well with the showers as the winds will be lighter than what we've had over the past week so showers may have a tougher time getting to the east, especially after dark.

tonights GFS upgrades next weeks cold chances with possible wintry outbreaks. A chance of a covering in many places mid week next week. However the GFS usually over does the snow potential and sometimes the uppers. This could easily downgrade closer to the timeframe, it is Atlantic cold afterall.







Another snow event for Saturday 29th.







All in all, next week is looking like potentially the coldest week of the year with low dingle digits for much of the week and a raw windchill.

this afternoons GFS is currently rolling out and with this run it wants to double down on the early March cold snap. I feel like we'e been here so many times recently only for things to downgrade completely or vanish without a trace on the next run.

For a while now the charts have been suggest a cold last week of February to 1st week of March - a cold zonal flow with us on the cold side of the jet.

The latest run looks rather interesting, hence why I don't think this will play out.

The cold zonality is in place by 28th of March with a very chilly north-west wind, bands of showers of a wintry nature or longer outbreaks of cold rain/sleet or possibly snow crossing the country.



29th of March see's the zonality evolving into more of a proper north-westerly:


1st of March, we have a go at getting the winds into the north at least for a day or 2. Any showers would be more of snow at this point.



milder air moves back in from the west by March 2nd but is short lived.


cold zonality back again by March 4th:


Major truckload of salt: March 6th. The Azores high heads straight towards Greenland. Staying cold with winds swinging back into the north.



High builds towards Iceland/Greenland and winds swing into the north-east with the -10C uppers getting into the north and east.



A ridge of high tries to get going but bitterly cold by this stage.


I think the cold zonality part of this will work out, but not so sure on that northerly or northeasterly in March, looks a bit flipsy. Still interesting to see as we've had so little of this all year.

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Verify! Verify! Please let there be an end to incessant rain and wind, and let there be SNOW!!!!

The ECM backtracked on yesterday's cold runs with a milder outcome. None of the short range charts are suggesting much in the way of dry and settled conditions. The charts I posted above look flipsy enough, the high doesn't get to Greenland, it doesn't move far enough north and it begins to collapse over us just as we get the cold air in. Lots of low pressures over Greenland and Canada are waiting and creating increasing pressure on that ridge. If we could run further on the high would most likely track into the continent and we would be back with the westerlies. My confidence of any easterly based cold spell is very low given the relentless power of the jet/pv. Any suggestion of an easterly this winter hasn't lasted more than 1 single run.

nacho libre wrote: »

I think we will continue in this pattern of brief pm airflows, followed by tm airflows.

it's just a question of what happens with the pv when the final warming inevitably begins- will it be a gradual decline, or will it be sudden, which could lead to strong northern blocking at precisely the wrong time- we could end up with a cold and wet late spring, which then follows on into summer.

I really hope we don't end up again with last year's Spring and June. June in particular felt like autumn or winter for the first 20 days of the month. Northern blocking has been completely absent since it's domination last summer, I suspect it will be back over the next few months and that would be a recipe for cold and unsettled conditions for us.

Once we reach May I expect temperatures in the mid to upper teens, rather than low teens. June last year struggled to get past 12C for much of the month and we had the fire lit for most of the month too. Really don't want a repeat of that this year!

plenty of cold on tonights GFS runs. A continuation of what we have now for the most part with cold zonal which veers more northerly as we head into March. The run ends with a Scandinavian high and we get winds into the east.

Several other of the lower resolution runs either get us into high pressure by week 2 of March or they build high pressure over us, sending cold into central and eastern Europe while others bring the winds into the east for us, some of them cold, others not so cold. The east itself hasn't had any cold all winter, so getting winds into the east would take a while to get any sort of cold here.

The models have hinted at this for the past while, they really want a pattern change but with the Atlantic refusing to let go of the peddle, this is proving a very difficult pattern to change.

All in all, a potential mild spell of weather/taste of early spring seems a long way off too. Staying generally cold over the next 10 days.

GFS still playing with the idea of a pattern change and some dryer weather, but as ever it is along way off and liable to fall through with the PV and jet still very strong for the time of year.

I think it's the time of year were looking for cold and snow has shipped away for another year. Bring on the mild and something substantially dryer.

GFS tries to end the current run of cold zonality and brings in much milder south-westerlies with a ridge building towards us.



ridge attempts to settle over us, but it is still looking a bit flipsy, look at the PV still bottling in the cold over the pole.



we end with a lovely mild SE flow but this doens't look like it will last long. More low pressures are waiting out in the Atlantic and there is some very cold air just to our north which may shave past us interrupting the mild flow.



Many of the lower resolution models are supporting high pressure for the second week of March while a few others are trying to bring in bitter winds from the east, however I think there is almost zero chance this will happen.

and just for fun here is that very bitter run, it is out on it's own and not well supported. There are a few other runs that go for easterlies but none of them are this cold or prolonged. If this verifies i'll eat my hat. This is just for fun.

9th of March, the cold zonal flow comes to an end as a ridge attempts to move towards Iceland and Greenland. Ireland still has very similar conditions to what we have right now.



10th of March the ridge builds more, and we bring a long fetch of winds in from the east right over Ireland. However this is not an unstable flow for us as we are very close to that ridge. Getting progressively colder, the UK looks quite wintry.



The high makes more progress towards Greenland, and the air over us get's colder. Snow showers maybe getting into eastern and south-eastern UK, looks on the dry side of us and potentially very frosty indeed.



We end the run with a bitter easterly well established, the high is trying to push away northwards bringing some of those snow showers close to the SE of Ireland and potentially into Wicklow and Wexford and possibly parts of coastal Waterford and eastern coastal Cork. -10C uppers starting to make it's way into the country on a bitter long fetch flow from siberia.



As I said above this is just for fun and i'm almost 100% certain this will be nowhere to be seen on the next run, but if it did happen, it would be substantially colder than the muck we have right now, even if it is the second week of March, that source is so much colder than anything the Atlantic can throw at us. However this is not a particularly snowy run with pressure too high over Ireland for the most part.

pub run continues with the high pressure, this time drawing up a nice plume from Morocco and Algeria by the 9th of March.

This draws up +8 to +10 uppers over us for a time bringing in Spring! However we end the run with the high starting to move from the UK/Ireland towards Greenland.





Not all the lower resolution runs are finished, quite a few of them bring up the warmth and height rises while others attempt to bring the freezer closer to us. Very few are showing any sort of continuation of the Atlantic.

Looking forward to updates over the weekend. A warm plume or a cold freezer, i'll happily take both, anything other than the continuation of the Atlantic is a good thing.