Storm Dennis Please read Mod Note in OP

Harry Palmr · 11-02-2020 2:18pm #1

Bring it on?

I'll let someone better qualified to do the technical thread.

Looks like lasting about 4 days as its progress bogs down south of Iceland - around 945 mb at the peak.

Mod Note: This thread is expected to become busy over the coming days. The Moderators have decided that there is to be one thread only on the discussion of Storm Dennis.

Please stay on topic and adhere to the forum charter and comply with moderator instructions.

11-02-2020 2:26pm

Ciara was a feisty wench.

Twitter say's that storm Dennis sounds like someone who will knock over a couple of patio chairs and fall asleep watching the snooker.

MJohnston · 11-02-2020 2:30pm

Why are the UKMO naming these events so early this year?

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 11-02-2020 2:32pm

Thankfully no snow expected with this one and we'll be seeing an increase in temperatures.

Heavy rain and strong winds but nothing as bad as Ciara is forecast.

vicwatson · 11-02-2020 4:21pm

MJohnston wrote: »

Why are the UKMO naming these events so early this year?

Maybe they know more than met Éireann

pawdee · 11-02-2020 6:45pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Ciara was a feisty wench.

Twitter say's that storm Dennis sounds like someone who will knock over a couple of patio chairs and fall asleep watching the snooker.

Wait until Gnasher rolls in after him.

Hooter23 · 11-02-2020 7:02pm

This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

11-02-2020 7:27pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

.if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

Why are you posting in the weather forum then if so disinterested?

TTLF · 11-02-2020 8:16pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

I know you're entitled to your own opinion. But what about years like late 2017, all of 2018?

I know it's only two years, but they had some very exciting weather! Especially 2018!

Oneiric 3 · 11-02-2020 8:18pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

I'm getting to the stage now where I really couldn't care less about 'storms' in this country anymore. What would have been seen as a normal windy day/period one time is now being sold as being something exceptional.

11-02-2020 8:18pm

Annabella High Ginseng wrote: »

Thankfully no snow expected with this one and we'll be seeing an increase in temperatures.

Heavy rain and strong winds but nothing as bad as Ciara is forecast.

How bad was Ciara actually? Not very I think.

I looked at the electricity network app at one stage and was surprised how few faults had been reported.

Is there anywhere that records the number of wires down incidents (not number of houses affected) as that would give an objective measure of how bad each storm is.

Nabber · 11-02-2020 8:22pm

Is this what we are talking about here?

gfs-0-234.png?12

Delta Lima · 11-02-2020 8:42pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Is there anywhere that records the number of wires down incidents (not number of houses affected) as that would give an objective measure of how bad each storm is.

Don't forget that more power lines will be damaged during storms, when trees are still in full leaf.

11-02-2020 8:58pm

Delta Lima wrote: »

Don't forget that more power lines will be damaged during storms, when trees are still in full leaf.

When i said a measure of how bad each storm was, I should perhaps have said 'how damaging'.

A wind storm that doesnt bring down trees or powerlines is one that wouldnt worry me very much, no matter what the windspeed reading was.

no.8 · 11-02-2020 9:06pm

Well. It was (is) an extremely prolonged event with many here reporting the worst conditions they've experienced so far this winter.
While it may not set absolute records, it certainly did pack a punch and felt like a marathon event.

Zeek12 · 11-02-2020 9:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

How bad was Ciara actually? Not very I think.

I looked at the electricity network app at one stage and was surprised how few faults had been reported.

Is there anywhere that records the number of wires down incidents (not number of houses affected) as that would give an objective measure of how bad each storm is.

If you mean it's power and destruction, no not one of the worst.

In terms of it's stubborn refusal to blow-over it's been very prolonged indeed.

Throw in the snow and freezing conditions, it's made Storm Ciara and it's aftermath fairly unpleasant for many parts of the country.

freak scence · 11-02-2020 9:29pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

get a grip did you see the floods in uk ?

11-02-2020 11:29pm

GFS develops it as a sub 930mb feature by the weekend. Good job it stays far away.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-02-2020 1:07am

freak scence wrote: »

get a grip did you see the floods in uk ?

The floods are from Ciara. This is the Dennis thread.

Doctors room ghost · 12-02-2020 7:17am

Summer sun and grass cutting seems so far away these days

Gaoth Laidir · 12-02-2020 8:24am

926 hPa???

ednwireland · 12-02-2020 8:33am

freak scence wrote: »

get a grip did you see the floods in uk ?

I grew in near the Calder always floods. worse now because a lot of the flood plains have been built on so theres no slack. you're talking steep sided valleys with little flat space to build on. the town I grew up in flooded regularly up until a huge flood relief scheme was finished in the 60s.
I see now theres a massive riverside housing scheme planned so that'll flood and everyone will say its climate change.

12-02-2020 11:08am

GFS signalling a possible wind event for Monday.

EDIT: chart is for Sunday.

pauldry · 12-02-2020 11:15am

Will it ever end. Went walking at Strandhill Culleenamore 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's taken a fair owl rattle.

Wednesday 19th February might be the end of the wind. The last remaining tree in my garden is getting very loose. Surrounded by debris from Ciara of course.

Doctors room ghost · 12-02-2020 12:18pm

pauldry wrote: »

Will it ever end. Went walking at Strandhill Culleenamore 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's taken a fair owl rattle.

Wednesday 19th February might be the end of the wind. The last remaining tree in my garden is getting very loose. Surrounded by debris from Ciara of course.

I’ve a hawthorn here.dont know how he’s still standing.roll on some good weather and a bit of drying.
God help lads lambing ewes last few days

matthewmurdock · 12-02-2020 2:15pm

Lot of knowledgeable people on this forum, I have 2 flights on Sunday, wondering if the weather is going to be bad enough to cause significant disruptions based on the info currently available?

Gerianam · 12-02-2020 2:18pm

Too early to say definitively, i'd imagine.

DominoDub · 12-02-2020 2:28pm

https://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/violent-extra-tropical-cyclone-north-atlantic-mk/

giggsirish · 12-02-2020 2:41pm

matthewmurdock wrote: »

Lot of knowledgeable people on this forum, I have 2 flights on Sunday, wondering if the weather is going to be bad enough to cause significant disruptions based on the info currently available?

Your airline will be/is the best source of information for this.

Sultan of Bling · 12-02-2020 2:42pm

easypazz wrote:

I am going to walk to the pub Saturday night, can anybody tell me if I might need to bring an umbrella.

easypazz wrote:

Why do people keep asking this same stupid question about flights that are days away, its worse when they don't even say what airports they are flying to and from.

Don't feed, don't feed.

matthewmurdock · 12-02-2020 3:08pm

Mod Note: : removed deleted quoted post as was uncivil.

Alright mate was just a question. I don't scan this forum so I don't know what questions are asked regularly.

If you don't want to engage then don't or even put me on ignore.

Bit of a difference between going to the pub and flying. If taking the piss out of someone on an internet forum makes you feel like a big man then good for you I guess.

gibgodsman · 12-02-2020 3:10pm

Storm Ciara was not felt at all really, Just seemed like a normal week of weather with a bit of wind, everyone seems to be loosing their minds when anything with wind gets named

NIMAN · 12-02-2020 3:46pm

I've had enough of stormy weather this last week, feCk off Dennis.

Nabber · 12-02-2020 7:10pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Yes they showed it on Sky news was a joke really part of a restaurant fell into the river...the restaurant was practically built on top of the river so what did they expect :rolleyes:

UK never flooded before AGW, fact!!!

Oscar Bravo · 12-02-2020 8:00pm

Gerry murphy on the forecast. Possible severe winds Sunday night/monday morning.keeping a close eye on it.

Corca Baiscinn · 12-02-2020 9:22pm

gibgodsman wrote: »

Storm Ciara was not felt at all really, Just seemed like a normal week of weather with a bit of wind, everyone seems to be loosing their minds when anything with wind gets named

Looks like it wasn't felt where you are but it was felt elsewhere.

Oscar Bravo · 12-02-2020 9:22pm

Meteorologists's Commentary . Storm Dennis – Saturday 15th to Monday 17th

Storm Dennis is forecast to track to the north of Ireland and the UK over the weekend. It will likely bring periods of very wet and windy weather, with some stormy conditions possible, particularly later Sunday into Monday.

The Meteorological Situation:

Cold air is forecast to exit Canada and enter the North Atlantic Ocean over the next few days, creating a sharp temperature gradient in the atmosphere. This will result in an intensification of the jet stream, which will direct low pressure systems towards Ireland.

Gales are likely in coastal areas on Saturday with fresh to strong winds inland. Winds could increase further on Sunday, possibly becoming stormy, particularly along western coasts. It will be very gusty too over the weekend, with some damaging gusts possible.

Flooding issues

We are entering into a period of transition between Spring (High) Tides and Neap (Low) Tides. This means there will not be a large variation between high and low tides. The combination of high seas and strong winds or perhaps stormy conditions, may increase the possibility of coastal flooding especially along western and southern coasts due to wave transformation.

Storm Dennis may also bring very wet conditions with localised flooding possible. River levels are elevated across much of the midlands so any heavy rainfall would cause issues here.

Storm Naming

Storm Dennis is the fourth named storm of the season. The naming convention now also includes the Dutch meteorological service, KNMI as well as our existing partner UKMO. Storms are named to aid the communication of approaching severe weather, helping the public to be better placed to keep themselves, their property and businesses safe.

Keep up to date

As forecast confidence improves over the coming days Met Éireann will issue warnings as required. Please check for updates

Gaoth Laidir · 12-02-2020 9:32pm

Not related to Dennis but that's one humdinger of a low coming off New Foundland today. 987 hPa at 12Z today, 943 hPa by 12Z tomorrow, a drop of 43 hPa in 24 hours.

Gaoth Laidir · 12-02-2020 9:53pm

300 hPa jet stream Friday night. Another night for record-breaking translatlantic flight times...

Meteorite58 · 12-02-2020 11:59pm

ECM looking the strongest for winds on Sunday at this stage . Currently strongest winds in coastal counties and strongest along the coasts.

It's a complex beast . The system seems to be more like a number of areas of LP being absorbed to form one large storm . The whole mass does a pirouette in the Atlantic near Iceland before swinging in towards the North of Scotland on Sunday. Showing getting down to an incredibly deep 921 hPa on Sat and charts showing 950 hPa when it is off the NW on Sunday evening. Looks to produce a few wave depressions on it's journey so a lot of uncertainty as to what comes in close to us or not. It is probably better viewed as a collection of deep areas of LP maybe ?
Gerry Murphy mentioning Sunday keeping an eye on as could be stormy. Much rainfall in the lead up to this also and looking very wet over the weekend, areas quite saturated and standing weather in fields so some flooding in places probably an issue over the weekend and into Monday. His comments would tally with the ECM charts, GFS whilst strong not showing stormy yet.

Saturday quite windy and wet in it's own right, very windy along coasts and quite windy blustery during the frontal passage over the country.

Sunday looks to be very cold day with sleety wintry showers possible.

Rough idea of accumulated rain up to Monday am.

Oneiric 3 · 13-02-2020 3:47pm

Not Dennis but that sure is a mean looking system out west currently:

30909281b3e2e487ef9f9f4e4a5366dc72afd8e033383c64873e3202053b34fd4aea22bf.jpg

30909281b3e2e487ef9f9f4e4a5366dc72afd8e033383c64873e3202053b34fd4aea22bf.jpg

Oscar Bravo · 13-02-2020 5:37pm

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Storm Dennis will bring some very wet and very windy weather over the weekend and into Monday.
Some flooding is likely and damaging gusty winds with some disruption possible.

Warnings will be issued on Friday 14th Feb.

Valid: 03:00 Saturday 15/02/2020 to 12:00 Monday 17/02/2020

Issued: 16:00 Thursday 13/02/2020

13-02-2020 7:49pm

Latest ECM for Sunday. Seems to be the hint of a secondary feature tightening up the isobars a bit over Ireland.

Hooter23 · 13-02-2020 8:28pm

This storm still has potential by the looks of it with whats going on in the atlantic already..we'll see sure...

Donegal Storm · 13-02-2020 8:58pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Not Dennis but that sure is a mean looking system out west currently:

That actually is Dennis, its forecast to spin around in the north Atlantic for the next two days (forecast to get down to 925hPa!) before weakening as it moves over us on Sunday

watlantic · 13-02-2020 10:12pm

The latest 48hr OPC chart (below) has it at 916 hPa with another low of 928 hPa chasing it. Some beast, and there's a strong possibility that the two lows will merge. A 'perfect storm' ? ...

pauldry · 13-02-2020 11:44pm

Wev had very high tides in Sligo the past 3 days with overtopping

However Spring tides abating this weekend but Dennis will bring enormous swell to Salthill Strandhill and Lahinch for example

Meteorite58 · 14-02-2020 12:15am

ECM very windy across the country during the frontal passage on Saturday, and signs that the S and SE could be very windy again Sat evening for a time.

Sunday looking very windy along Atlantic coastal counties and blustery across the country and very windy across Northern counties later. Bit of a spread in timing and strength of winds in the models yet.

Very wet day Sat into Sun. Heavy showers and cold on Sunday into Monday with some more prolonged spells, some showers wintry.

Very big seas out in the Atlantic the next few days.

Meteorite58 · 14-02-2020 12:38am

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1228091596001992704?s=20

https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1228038703412580354?s=20

https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1228086544692461568?s=20

https://twitter.com/PapavasileiouWX/status/1228023963797852160?s=20

https://twitter.com/AliciaMBentley/status/1228038962830336000?s=20

Meteorite58 · 14-02-2020 12:41am

Some excellent detail below about the formation of the storm.

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1227790051540717568?s=20

redsteveireland · 14-02-2020 12:59am

All this hype with named storms has caused the connacht schools cross country races scheduled for Saturday in Loughrea to be cancelled. If you ask me it is very early to be calling this.

Storm Dennis ** Please read Mod Note in OP**

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Storm Dennis Please read Mod Note in OP