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Storm Dennis ** Please read Mod Note in OP**

  • 11-02-2020 2:18pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭


    Bring it on?

    I'll let someone better qualified to do the technical thread.

    Looks like lasting about 4 days as its progress bogs down south of Iceland - around 945 mb at the peak.











    Mod Note: This thread is expected to become busy over the coming days. The Moderators have decided that there is to be one thread only on the discussion of Storm Dennis.

    Please stay on topic and adhere to the forum charter and comply with moderator instructions.







«13456713

Comments

  • Posts: 2,016 [Deleted User]


    Ciara was a feisty wench.

    Twitter say's that storm Dennis sounds like someone who will knock over a couple of patio chairs and fall asleep watching the snooker.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,669 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Why are the UKMO naming these events so early this year?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭ldy4mxonucwsq6


    Thankfully no snow expected with this one and we'll be seeing an increase in temperatures.

    Heavy rain and strong winds but nothing as bad as Ciara is forecast.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,404 ✭✭✭✭vicwatson


    MJohnston wrote: »
    Why are the UKMO naming these events so early this year?

    Maybe they know more than met Éireann


  • Registered Users Posts: 552 ✭✭✭pawdee


    Ciara was a feisty wench.

    Twitter say's that storm Dennis sounds like someone who will knock over a couple of patio chairs and fall asleep watching the snooker.

    Wait until Gnasher rolls in after him.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round


  • Posts: 5,311 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    .if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

    Why are you posting in the weather forum then if so disinterested?


  • Registered Users Posts: 672 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

    I know you're entitled to your own opinion. But what about years like late 2017, all of 2018?

    I know it's only two years, but they had some very exciting weather! Especially 2018!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

    I'm getting to the stage now where I really couldn't care less about 'storms' in this country anymore. What would have been seen as a normal windy day/period one time is now being sold as being something exceptional.

    New Moon



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Thankfully no snow expected with this one and we'll be seeing an increase in temperatures.

    Heavy rain and strong winds but nothing as bad as Ciara is forecast.




    How bad was Ciara actually? Not very I think.



    I looked at the electricity network app at one stage and was surprised how few faults had been reported.


    Is there anywhere that records the number of wires down incidents (not number of houses affected) as that would give an objective measure of how bad each storm is.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Is this what we are talking about here?

    gfs-0-234.png?12


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 149 ✭✭Delta Lima




    Is there anywhere that records the number of wires down incidents (not number of houses affected) as that would give an objective measure of how bad each storm is.

    Don't forget that more power lines will be damaged during storms, when trees are still in full leaf.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Delta Lima wrote: »
    Don't forget that more power lines will be damaged during storms, when trees are still in full leaf.




    When i said a measure of how bad each storm was, I should perhaps have said 'how damaging'.


    A wind storm that doesnt bring down trees or powerlines is one that wouldnt worry me very much, no matter what the windspeed reading was.


  • Registered Users Posts: 780 ✭✭✭no.8


    Well. It was (is) an extremely prolonged event with many here reporting the worst conditions they've experienced so far this winter.
    While it may not set absolute records, it certainly did pack a punch and felt like a marathon event.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,472 ✭✭✭✭Zeek12


    How bad was Ciara actually? Not very I think.


    I looked at the electricity network app at one stage and was surprised how few faults had been reported.


    Is there anywhere that records the number of wires down incidents (not number of houses affected) as that would give an objective measure of how bad each storm is.

    If you mean it's power and destruction, no not one of the worst.

    In terms of it's stubborn refusal to blow-over it's been very prolonged indeed.

    Throw in the snow and freezing conditions, it's made Storm Ciara and it's aftermath fairly unpleasant for many parts of the country.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 442 ✭✭freak scence


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    This storm does not look like being much here or even in the UK as with most of the storms we get these days...think they are just trying to keep the whole climate change scam going exaggerating these pathetic so called storms...weather was much worst 20-30 years in every way...if anything our weather is really boring these days...autumn all year round

    get a grip did you see the floods in uk ?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    GFS develops it as a sub 930mb feature by the weekend. Good job it stays far away.

    gfs-0-78_zrb2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    get a grip did you see the floods in uk ?

    The floods are from Ciara. This is the Dennis thread.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭Doctors room ghost


    Summer sun and grass cutting seems so far away these days


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    926 hPa???

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020021200_084.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,461 ✭✭✭✭ednwireland


    get a grip did you see the floods in uk ?

    I grew in near the Calder always floods. worse now because a lot of the flood plains have been built on so theres no slack. you're talking steep sided valleys with little flat space to build on. the town I grew up in flooded regularly up until a huge flood relief scheme was finished in the 60s.
    I see now theres a massive riverside housing scheme planned so that'll flood and everyone will say its climate change.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    GFS signalling a possible wind event for Monday.

    EDIT: chart is for Sunday.

    gfs-0-99-3h_jwd1.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,199 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Will it ever end. Went walking at Strandhill Culleenamore 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's taken a fair owl rattle.

    Wednesday 19th February might be the end of the wind. The last remaining tree in my garden is getting very loose. Surrounded by debris from Ciara of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭Doctors room ghost


    pauldry wrote: »
    Will it ever end. Went walking at Strandhill Culleenamore 2 weeks ago. I'd say it's taken a fair owl rattle.

    Wednesday 19th February might be the end of the wind. The last remaining tree in my garden is getting very loose. Surrounded by debris from Ciara of course.




    I’ve a hawthorn here.dont know how he’s still standing.roll on some good weather and a bit of drying.
    God help lads lambing ewes last few days


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 134 ✭✭matthewmurdock


    Lot of knowledgeable people on this forum, I have 2 flights on Sunday, wondering if the weather is going to be bad enough to cause significant disruptions based on the info currently available?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 118 ✭✭Gerianam


    Too early to say definitively, i'd imagine.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,572 ✭✭✭DominoDub




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭giggsirish


    Lot of knowledgeable people on this forum, I have 2 flights on Sunday, wondering if the weather is going to be bad enough to cause significant disruptions based on the info currently available?

    Your airline will be/is the best source of information for this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭Sultan of Bling


    easypazz wrote:
    I am going to walk to the pub Saturday night, can anybody tell me if I might need to bring an umbrella.

    easypazz wrote:
    Why do people keep asking this same stupid question about flights that are days away, its worse when they don't even say what airports they are flying to and from.


    Don't feed, don't feed.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 134 ✭✭matthewmurdock


    Mod Note: : removed deleted quoted post as was uncivil.

    Alright mate was just a question. I don't scan this forum so I don't know what questions are asked regularly.

    If you don't want to engage then don't or even put me on ignore.

    Bit of a difference between going to the pub and flying. If taking the piss out of someone on an internet forum makes you feel like a big man then good for you I guess.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 573 ✭✭✭gibgodsman


    Storm Ciara was not felt at all really, Just seemed like a normal week of weather with a bit of wind, everyone seems to be loosing their minds when anything with wind gets named


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,105 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    I've had enough of stormy weather this last week, feCk off Dennis.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Yes they showed it on Sky news was a joke really part of a restaurant fell into the river...the restaurant was practically built on top of the river so what did they expect :rolleyes:

    UK never flooded before AGW, fact!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,219 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Gerry murphy on the forecast. Possible severe winds Sunday night/monday morning.keeping a close eye on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 643 ✭✭✭Corca Baiscinn


    gibgodsman wrote: »
    Storm Ciara was not felt at all really, Just seemed like a normal week of weather with a bit of wind, everyone seems to be loosing their minds when anything with wind gets named

    Looks like it wasn't felt where you are but it was felt elsewhere.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,219 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Meteorologists's Commentary . Storm Dennis – Saturday 15th to Monday 17th 

    Storm Dennis is forecast to track to the north of Ireland and the UK over the weekend. It will likely bring periods of very wet and windy weather, with some stormy conditions possible, particularly later Sunday into Monday.

     

    The Meteorological Situation:

    Cold air is forecast to exit Canada and enter the North Atlantic Ocean over the next few days, creating a sharp temperature gradient in the atmosphere. This will result in an intensification of the jet stream, which will direct low pressure systems towards Ireland.

    Gales are likely in coastal areas on Saturday with fresh to strong winds inland. Winds could increase further on Sunday, possibly becoming stormy, particularly along western coasts. It will be very gusty too over the weekend, with some damaging gusts possible.

     

    Flooding issues

    We are entering into a period of transition between Spring (High) Tides and Neap (Low) Tides. This means there will not be a large variation between high and low tides. The combination of high seas and strong winds or perhaps stormy conditions, may increase the possibility of coastal flooding especially along western and southern coasts due to wave transformation.

    Storm Dennis may also bring very wet conditions with localised flooding possible. River levels are elevated across much of the midlands so any heavy rainfall would cause issues here.

     

    Storm Naming

    Storm Dennis is the fourth named storm of the season. The naming convention now also includes the Dutch meteorological service, KNMI as well as our existing partner UKMO. Storms are named to aid the communication of approaching severe weather, helping the public to be better placed to keep themselves, their property and businesses safe.

    Keep up to date

    As forecast confidence improves over the coming days Met Éireann will issue warnings as required. Please check for updates 


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Not related to Dennis but that's one humdinger of a low coming off New Foundland today. 987 hPa at 12Z today, 943 hPa by 12Z tomorrow, a drop of 43 hPa in 24 hours.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020021212_000.png

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020021212_024.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    300 hPa jet stream Friday night. Another night for record-breaking translatlantic flight times...

    ecm0125_nat_gh300_uv300_2020021212_060.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,115 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM looking the strongest for winds on Sunday at this stage . Currently strongest winds in coastal counties and strongest along the coasts.

    It's a complex beast . The system seems to be more like a number of areas of LP being absorbed to form one large storm . The whole mass does a pirouette in the Atlantic near Iceland before swinging in towards the North of Scotland on Sunday. Showing getting down to an incredibly deep 921 hPa on Sat and charts showing 950 hPa when it is off the NW on Sunday evening. Looks to produce a few wave depressions on it's journey so a lot of uncertainty as to what comes in close to us or not. It is probably better viewed as a collection of deep areas of LP maybe ?
    Gerry Murphy mentioning Sunday keeping an eye on as could be stormy. Much rainfall in the lead up to this also and looking very wet over the weekend, areas quite saturated and standing weather in fields so some flooding in places probably an issue over the weekend and into Monday. His comments would tally with the ECM charts, GFS whilst strong not showing stormy yet.

    Saturday quite windy and wet in it's own right, very windy along coasts and quite windy blustery during the frontal passage over the country.

    Sunday looks to be very cold day with sleety wintry showers possible.


    5yOZfZG.gif

    Bx7OM7D.png

    wSZi6Oh.png

    Lk49koa.png

    Rough idea of accumulated rain up to Monday am.



    m7SByVW.png


    QRozvVZ.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Not Dennis but that sure is a mean looking system out west currently:

    30909281b3e2e487ef9f9f4e4a5366dc72afd8e033383c64873e3202053b34fd4aea22bf.jpg

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,219 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Weather Advisory for Ireland

    Storm Dennis will bring some very wet and very windy weather over the weekend and into Monday. 
    Some flooding is likely and damaging gusty winds with some disruption possible.

    Warnings will be issued on Friday 14th Feb.

    Valid: 03:00 Saturday 15/02/2020 to 12:00 Monday 17/02/2020

    Issued: 16:00 Thursday 13/02/2020


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Latest ECM for Sunday. Seems to be the hint of a secondary feature tightening up the isobars a bit over Ireland.

    ECM1-72_lbx2.GIF


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,526 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    This storm still has potential by the looks of it with whats going on in the atlantic already..we'll see sure...


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Not Dennis but that sure is a mean looking system out west currently:

    That actually is Dennis, its forecast to spin around in the north Atlantic for the next two days (forecast to get down to 925hPa!) before weakening as it moves over us on Sunday


  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭watlantic


    The latest 48hr OPC chart (below) has it at 916 hPa with another low of 928 hPa chasing it. Some beast, and there's a strong possibility that the two lows will merge. A 'perfect storm' ? ...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,199 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Wev had very high tides in Sligo the past 3 days with overtopping

    However Spring tides abating this weekend but Dennis will bring enormous swell to Salthill Strandhill and Lahinch for example


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,115 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM very windy across the country during the frontal passage on Saturday, and signs that the S and SE could be very windy again Sat evening for a time.

    Sunday looking very windy along Atlantic coastal counties and blustery across the country and very windy across Northern counties later. Bit of a spread in timing and strength of winds in the models yet.

    Very wet day Sat into Sun. Heavy showers and cold on Sunday into Monday with some more prolonged spells, some showers wintry.

    Very big seas out in the Atlantic the next few days.

    ECU1-48_pcq3.GIF

    ECU1-72_lpj8.GIF

    anim_muw9.gif

    iconeu_uk1-52-81-0_kor7.png

    44pLEHS.png

    9CfvVOH.png

    anim_nwz1.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,115 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some excellent detail below about the formation of the storm.




    https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1227790051540717568?s=20



    PhoeKSx.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,043 ✭✭✭redsteveireland


    All this hype with named storms has caused the connacht schools cross country races scheduled for Saturday in Loughrea to be cancelled. If you ask me it is very early to be calling this.


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