Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2019 8:45am

Wednesday, 9 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, isolated showers or patchy drizzle, in light northerly breezes (backing to westerly near west coast later). Rather cold especially in Ulster and Leinster. Highs will range from 6 C near east coast and in most of Ulster, to 10 C in Kerry and some other coastal areas of south and west.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, isolated showers or drizzle, cool. Lows 2 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, moderate southwest winds returning (40-60 km/hr in coastal north and west). Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, isolated showers, moderate southwest winds, mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather windy at times, outbreaks of rain (5 mm could fall), and temperatures steady 9 to 11 C.

NEXT WEEK ... Possibly quite unsettled and windy, with a growing risk of colder weather developing from the north or northeast at some point between Thursday 17th and Monday 21st. Temperatures will hang on near 8 C until this change occurs and could then fall sharply. As guidance is still very uneven on this transition, it's a question of probability of when the transition will begin. It could take longer than ten days but I believe it will happen before we reach the end of the following week. When the colder spell begins, it could last quite a while so be prepared for that possibility. At some point in the next two weeks to a month, a disruptive cold and snow event seems fairly likely. We can't really begin to guess how disruptive until the details show up on charts, every cold spell has its own quirks and singularities. Some are rather dry and produce only marginal amounts of snow (like March 2013 for example). Others rapidly produce large quantities of snow (like December 2010 and last February into early March). I would say the period from 24 January to 10 February is the highest risk period at the pace of change currently. Change is already beginning to show up in North America with eastern regions facing a sharp colder trend. The first signs of colder weather on any guidance show up around Friday 18th so that is probably the earliest that any wintry weather could strike, perhaps we could say the probability starts around 10% there and increases by about 5% a day until it levels off around 70% by 1st of February.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast, quite cold and a very light snow turned heavier by late afternoon, so we now have 3 cms on the ground and more gradually accumulating, with freezing drizzle mixing in, and temperatures steady near -2 C. Once this moves through, we are moving back into milder weather as central and eastern regions turn sharply colder. A possible snowstorm for the Washington D.C. region looms for this weekend but this storm will be coming together out of just some dry cloud formations west of Mexico's Baja peninsula at the present time (a front spinning off the Pacific storm hitting further north). The flow is about to buckle allowing much colder air to sink south into the Great Lakes region, then it will be held in place there as storms rotate around from the remnants of Pacific storms until they reach Greenland. What we need to see for Ireland and Britain to turn colder will be for the Greenland region to develop higher pressures at all levels steering these storms back into the Canadian arctic, and allowing higher pressure near the north pole to slide south into the vacuum left by the rise in pressures near Iceland. This will force the persistent high near Ireland and northwest France to push west to avoid being battered by the southward moving arctic jet stream. This scenario keeps appearing on 10-15 day time scales on various models and will become a big deal for the weather when it finally begins to settle into shorter time frames that are more reliable (and then actually happens).

M.T. Cranium · 10-01-2019 8:18am

Thursday, 10 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy at first with some patchy drizzle or light rain, more widespread in central Leinster, then gradually brightening up around mid-day or afternoon, in light north to northwest winds. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with some clear intervals, rather cold, lows 3 to 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, highs 9 to 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy and mild, occasional light rain, winds west to northwest 40 to 60 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, isolated showers, mild. Lows near 4 C and highs near 11 C.

MONDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, temperatures steady near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Somewhat colder in strong west to northwest winds, wintry showers on higher terrain in north, otherwise rain showers for most, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and generally a bit colder all through next week with winds mainly in a west to northwest direction, sometimes quite blustery, temperatures in the 4 to 7 C range most of the time, risk of some wintry showers on higher terrain. Beyond the weekend of 19th to 20th, it may turn even colder with winds from the north and sleety precipitation with a risk of accumulating snow at times. Details continue to vary from one model to another but there is certainly a growing trend towards much colder weather in the last ten days of January. How severe and how long it might last remain the big unknowns.

My local weather featured a steady light snowfall that eventually added up to about 10 cm, with the temperature around -2 C. This looks like continuing overnight then turning to drizzle as temperatures gradually warm up here to 2-4 C. I think we will lose this nice blanket of snow rather gradually over the following five days, meanwhile local hills and mountains have a lot heavier snow cover and will keep most of that for months now. A weak storm will develop over the south central U.S. on Friday and move towards North Carolina, bringing a 5 to 15 cm snow band into the Washington D.C. region this weekend. That snow might graze New York and Boston as the low tracks to their south, but amounts appear very small.

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2019 8:37am

Friday, 11 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, patchy drizzle or light rain in parts of Munster, but a few breaks in the overcast later, highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, mild, lows 5 to 8 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy, mild, outbreaks of light rain in north, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr in exposed areas. Highs 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, although slightly colder in east Ulster, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 5 C and highs in the range of 8 to 11 C, mildest in south.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers and turning somewhat colder, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers in a cold northwest wind, highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cold for the rest of the week, slight frosts returning, and risk of sleet by Saturday 19th. The week following that weekend will be perhaps even colder although at the moment the models seem to be indicating that a sharp frontal zone may form at times near Ireland with the much colder air more likely to dominate in Britain and especially northern and eastern parts of Britain. Given the time scale, this outlook could change to something more like Ireland being on the colder side of the frontal boundary more frequently, so I wouldn't stress these details too much, the main theme of most model guidance at the moment is for increasing risks of very cold weather as we move into late January.

My local weather on Thursday saw an end to the falling snow which has maintained its 10-12 cm depth despite a rather mild high of 2 C, fortunately no drizzle or rain fell despite the low cloud ceiling all day obscuring views of nearby hills. A weak disturbance in Texas is about to grow into a moderate snow-producing storm heading east towards North Carolina by Sunday. Snowfalls of 10-20 cm are likely from about northern Arkansas and southern Missouri east to Virginia and Maryland. This storm will probably miss New York and Boston or, at the very most leave them with a slight dusting of snow Monday. Much colder weather is flooding south behind this developing storm, with more chances for snowfall in the eastern U.S. for the rest of the month, although a somewhat variable regime with the occasional milder day. These storms are heading northeast then north towards Baffin Island rather than crossing the Atlantic, but some of them will spawn low pressure near southern Greenland that could eject lows towards Scotland, it's when that storm track drifts further south that active wintry weather might begin to affect Ireland in a week to ten days' time.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2019 8:10am

Saturday, 12 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy, mild, outbreaks of light rain in north by afternoon, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs 9 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy at times, mild, drizzle or light rain in a few places, lows 5 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, although slightly colder in east Ulster, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 5 to 7 C and highs in the range of 8 to 11 C, mildest in south.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows near 4 C and highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers and turning somewhat colder late in the day at least in north and west, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by afternoon in north Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain at times overnight then becoming partly cloudy, with passing showers in a cold northwest wind, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold, morning frosts. Lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain or drizzle, possibly mixing with sleet on higher ground in north, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... There may be a frontal boundary event shaping up for (on or about) Saturday 19th with sleet or snow possible in north and east, more likely rain and drizzle in south and west, before colder air advancing from the east replaces the remnants of the Atlantic flow which will be in a much weakened state by then, rapidly pushed far to the south by the collapsing frontal boundary low. This would imply the return of dry weather for some period of time under higher pressure, frosts at night and rather cold in the daytime. An even colder northerly flow could then develop after a day or two of this intermediate cold, so in general, it looks like a steady decline in temperatures from mid-week through this outlook period to who knows when ... it's possible that a lengthy cold spell will develop, perhaps with brief interruptions because some guidance suggests that the Atlantic will keep trying to fight back, if rather feebly, once the colder air establishes dominance.

My local weather was cloudy, almost calm, and rather mild, with a bit of mist from the slowly melting snow (which is still about 8-10 cm deep on the ground). The high was about 4 C. Snow has developed as expected in the Mississippi valley and is spreading towards West Virginia overnight, then into Virginia and Maryland on Saturday afternoon. About 10 to 20 cm is expected (or has already fallen in the St. Louis area).

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2019 8:30am

Sunday, 13 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy to windy, mild, although slightly colder in east Ulster, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs in the range of 8 to 11 C, mildest in south. A few brief showers but only slight accumulations.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, breezy, lows 3 to 6 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, highs near 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy, showers and turning somewhat colder late in the day at least in north and west, winds west to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs 8 to 10 C but temperatures 4 to 7 C by afternoon in north Connacht and west Ulster.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain at times overnight then becoming partly cloudy, with passing showers in a cold northwest wind, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C. Some showers will turn wintry over higher terrain, with hail at lower elevations, but there will also be more sunshine than most days this past few weeks.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, rather cold, morning frosts. Lows -1 to +2 C, highs 6 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain or drizzle, possibly mixing with sleet on higher ground in north, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C. A frontal wave may create a band of sleet or wet snow in some parts of Ulster and north Leinster, and this could begin to shift further west although timing is uncertain this far out.

SATURDAY ... There is some chance of the frontal bands of mixed precipitation lingering, but eventually a colder and dry air mass will probably push this disturbance away and bring clearing. Best estimate on temperatures would be in the 2 to 6 C range.

SUNDAY and MONDAY appear likely to remain cold and dry with some risk of isolated wintry showers feeding in to the south and east coasts on easterly breezes. Sharp frosts -5 to -2 C, and cold daytime highs near 4 C.

OUTLOOK remains rather uncertain as to details but most guidance has cold gradually intensifying with the risk of severe cold spells developing, so stay tuned as we await some sort of model consensus -- this will be a long, slow transition from the current mild spell to the expected cold regime, and I expect there might be one or two brief attempts made by the Atlantic to get back into the game, whether that leads to frontal snowfalls or one-day mild interludes remains to be seen.

My local weather on Saturday was foggy for a while, then the sun tried to break through low stratus cloud layers, while snow on the ground took another slight decrease to 5 cms. The high was about 5 C, this is a very mild air mass and with no snow I think we would be closer to about 9 or 10 degrees. A fairly widespread snowfall across the Ohio valley region has spread into Virginia and Maryland, also southern PA, with amounts of 10 to 20 cms expected. This storm will eventually become the disturbance that approaches Ireland from the west on Thursday and Friday, with most guidance now agreeing that it will be weak and running into a colder easterly wind from the Baltic region; so the last actions of this weather system will be to drop mixed precipitation over parts of Ireland and southern Wales, southwest England by Friday and possibly Saturday morning. Then it will drift further south and die out over the Biscay region or in southwest France possibly.

The European model is showing a very strong snowstorm for the eastern U.S. next Sunday into Monday (20th-21st) if you happen to have travel plans to New York or any other location in the eastern U.S., expect some disruptions if this comes about. Other guidance is not as bullish on the storm but not entirely in opposition either. This would likely move north towards west Greenland or Baffin Island rather than crossing the Atlantic (as of current guidance).

M.T. Cranium · 14-01-2019 8:16am

Monday, 14 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and still somewhat milder than average with brief passing showers and some brighter intervals too, winds westerly 50 to 70 km/hr at times, highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly to mostly cloudy, moderate westerly winds, lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain developing in west by late in the day, moderate southwest winds and highs 8 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning much colder in the early morning hours and staying quite cold all day as winds veer to northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers of rain or hail at lower elevations, becoming mixed wintry showers on hills. Morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs only 6 or 7 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold, with scattered frosts in the morning. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, damp and drizzly with some risk of sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Temperatures steady around 7 or 8 C to the west of a frontal boundary, and 3 to 5 C to the east. This frontal boundary could set up a little further west so stay tuned for the details on that. The further west it drifts, the colder temperatures might become to the east.

SATURDAY ... Continued outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in some eastern and southern counties, gradual clearing later, cold. Temperatures steady in the 3 to 5 C range and falling below freezing by evening.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts likely, then sunny but quite cold, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 3 to 6 C. Light east winds becoming southeast later.

MONDAY and TUESDAY may see a brief return to milder weather if some guidance is correct, but it may also become very windy at times with squally showers. The best guess for temperatures is around 7 C but other outcomes are possible.

OUTLOOK ... Almost all guidance is converging on a windy and cold end to January with occasional sleet or snow possible, and temperatures well below average at times (close to freezing daytime and around -3 C or lower at night). Some charts on various models look quite stormy and while we can have little confidence in any details this far ahead, the frequency of these stormy charts on almost all guidance makes me think that it's inevitable that something of that sort will occur within the period 23 to 31 January or into early February.

My local weather was very drab on Sunday, just a low overcast and temperatures steady near 2 C. Our snow cover stopped its slow decline and remains at about 5 to 7 cms. There is about a metre of snow at the 900 m elevation in the mountains above us though. Meanwhile, the snowstorm continued all day Sunday and Washington DC ended up with 25 cms. This low has moved out into the Atlantic and remnants of it will arrive near western Ireland by Friday morning.

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2019 8:24am

Tuesday, 15 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, rain developing in west by late in the day, moderate southwest winds and highs 8 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, blustery southwest winds veering to west then northwest, turning quite cold after midnight, lows near 3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Turning much colder in the early morning hours and staying quite cold all day as winds veer to northerly 40 to 70 km/hr, passing showers of rain or hail at lower elevations, becoming mixed wintry showers on hills. Morning lows near 3 C and afternoon highs only 6 or 7 C at best.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold, with scattered frosts in the morning. Lows -2 to +3 C, highs near 6 C.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, damp and drizzly with some risk of sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster and north Leinster. Temperatures steady around 7 or 8 C to the west of a frontal boundary, and 4 to 6 C to the east.

SATURDAY ... Continued outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in some eastern and southern counties, gradual clearing later, cold. Temperatures steady in the 3 to 5 C range and falling below freezing by evening.

SUNDAY ... Sharp frosts likely, then sunny but quite cold, lows -5 to -2 C and highs 3 to 6 C. Light east winds becoming southeast later.

OUTLOOK ... Some guidance is advertising a return to milder and wet weather for a few days next week, while other guidance suggests any such change will be very brief and followed by colder east winds and mixed wintry showers in the flow off the Irish Sea. As there is such a wide array of outcomes we will just take note of the range and await further developments, but the colder portion of the guidance is not as cold as what we might be seeing later in the month, although cold enough to produce some snow in the mixture of showery precipitation.

My local weather remained cloudy and rather cold at about 2 C. The eastern regions of North America were dry and cold and will warm up gradually to near average temperatures, with some active weather expected again this coming weekend.

Sorry that I can't be very definitive about the trends next week but we are being bombarded with a steady stream of constantly changing guidance that keeps going off in new directions, earlier on Monday there was a set of model runs with intense windstorms next week, and that was more or less withdrawn from sight by this morning. It may return, though, so we can't rule out that outcome either. The uncertainty is being created by a set of unusual conditions in the arctic circulation which keeps the computer models in a perpetual state of confusion, since the eventual location of a polar vortex will determine the trends for several weeks to come. Right now, part of that is wobbling around over Greenland and northeast Canada, while another part has drifted into Scandinavia. Sometimes the models get chasing an idea of one portion taking over from the other, which is the underlying reason we are getting such variable guidance. We can be a little more certain that the mild spell is going to end tomorrow though, at least for the time being.

M.T. Cranium · 16-01-2019 8:19am

Wednesday, 16 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some sunshine and cold westerly winds at first, showers becoming more widespread and taking a wintry turn over higher parts of the north and west. Winds west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 5 to 8 C, temperatures tending to drop in vicinity of heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Partial clearing with widespread although not universal frost, most likely inland and in lower lying areas, lows -3 to +2 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, less windy but quite cold, highs 4 to 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Overcast, outbreaks of light rain trending to sleet or wet snow in parts of Ulster, north/east Connacht and Leinster. Highs about 4 or 5 C for most, but could reach 7 to 9 C in west Munster.

SATURDAY ... Some sleety showers lingering in the morning, more confined to south and east then clearing by afternoon, cold. Morning lows about 2 C and afternoon highs about 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... There remains some uncertainty about the trends beyond Saturday, the most likely scenario is for this modified cold air mass to linger with slight fluctuations in temperature as weak weather systems ripple along from northwest to southeast, but there is some chance of a colder trend too with east winds developing. Eventually it seems likely that a colder spell will develop as the Atlantic is only strong enough to send in very weak frontal systems without much if any warmth, so that there are two different processes that could lead to sleet or snow, easterly "sea effect" showers, or frontal mixed precipitation. I have the feeling that more reliable model output will be available next week once the shock effects of the changes at higher levels work their way through the system and the models have the usual less complicated tasks to process the data. What that more reliable scenario will be is anybody's guess at this point, almost all possibilities are on the table given the mix of players on the field.

My local weather continued overcast and got a bit colder, with the high only reaching -2 C. We are expecting a similar day today and then some light snow on Thursday. The east coast of North America is gearing up for some mixed sleety precipitation that will fall as heavy snow over higher ground inland from the major cities, but could be a mix of types near the coast. Something to mark on the calendar: if skies are clear on the night of 20th-21st (this coming Sunday night into Monday morning) a total eclipse of the moon will be visible in both Europe and most of North America. The midpoint of this lunar eclipse will be 0517 GMT Monday, or just after midnight in the eastern time zone of North America. For Irish readers, this means the opening stages of the eclipse would be after 0400h Monday and at that point the moon will be fairly high in the southwestern sky, even towards the end of the event around 0600h it will be well above the horizon setting in the west. North American viewers will catch this spectacle (where skies are clear) with the Moon high up in the southern sky (or in my western time zone, in the southeast and reasonably high up for viewing).

M.T. Cranium · 17-01-2019 8:22am

Thursday, 17 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and cold with increasing cloud in west, highs 5 to 7 C. Isolated wintry showers are still possible over higher terrain in the north and west.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud for east, overcast in west, sleet or wet snow may develop inland after midnight, but cold rain near coasts. Lows before midnight could reach -2 deg C, and then temperatures will be slowly rising.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of sleet or wet snow in some higher areas of north spreading to east and inland south, but with rain closer to sea level, amounts generally rather light (5 mm rain, could see slushy coatings of snow on some hills). Highs near 5 C for most, but as warm as 9 or 10 C in coastal west.

SATURDAY ... A few more wintry showers from time to time, with a gradual brightening of skies for most by afternoon, staying rather cold, morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated wintry showers, lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... There is growing confidence (as models converge on similar solutions) that a cold easterly wind will develop next week, with potential for snow although it may turn out to be mixed wintry showers close to sea level as temperatures are not quite as optimal for snow as we saw last year in late February and early March. Although it is mid-winter now, so the solar heating factor is lower, we do need to see upper level temperatures a degree or two lower before getting too concerned with snowfall accumulations, however some higher areas will probably see some buildup if these charts are accurate. There will also be a fair amount of wintry sunshine especially away from the east and south coasts where the wintry showers will be more prevalent in this pattern. Highs of about 2 to 5 C, and frosty lows of -5 to -2 C could be expected. Later next week, high pressure from near Iceland could approach for a few days leading to clear, cold and frosty weather, similar daytime temperatures but possibly even colder at night. Beyond that, some kind of wintry weather scenario could develop in a new phase, and one suggestion from the guidance would be a northerly with embedded snow showers. So that may take us towards the end of the month with no real reason to suspect that this cold spell will end very quickly into February. However, I should say that the overall situation, while clearer than it was a day or two ago, is by no means settled or inevitable the way most of us thought last winter's cold and snow scenario was going to turn out, so there is some room for alternative outcomes to jump up later.

My local weather on Wednesday was once again overcast and cold with a high near 1 C. Snow is going to be falling here by afternoon although we're not expecting more than 5 cms at most. The east coast U.S. storm forecast for the weekend continues to be mixed rain, sleet and snow near the larger cities and snow inland. A reminder, check yesterday's forecast for details on Monday morning's total eclipse of the Moon.

M.T. Cranium · 18-01-2019 8:39am

Friday, 18 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some further light rain in parts of Ulster and Leinster this morning, with sleet on some higher ground. Gradual clearing to partly cloudy skies later. There will still be a few isolated showers in the drier air mass, already evident around Galway, but these will be hit or miss with slight risk of hail. Rather cold especially in north and east today, highs 5 to 8 C. South and west coast may approach 10 C later.

TONIGHT ... Clearing for some areas will bring on a slight frost, and patchy ground fog. There will continue to be one or two isolated showers and somewhat more organized bands of light rain or sleet in the north. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional showers, some risk of sleet or hail in these. Cold. Highs 5 to 8 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny intervals, cold, isolated wintry showers. Lows -3 to +1 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

MONDAY ... Sharp frosts in morning (some clear skies for eclipse viewing but very cold), lows -5 to -2 C. Increasing cloud during the day with an outbreak of sleety rain turning to wet snow over some higher terrain by the overnight hours. Highs 4 to 7 C. Becoming rather windy with this band of wintry precipitation (southwest 40 to 70 km/hr veering to northwest 50 to 90 km/hr).

TUESDAY and possibly WEDNESDAY will be cold, windy with wintry showers likely, some small accumulations of snow mainly over higher ground. Lows will be near -1 C and highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most guidance continues to show even colder weather developing from the east, however, the set-up is a little "delicate" on some guidance and the full effect of this cold spell may be somewhat modified in Ireland as compared to Britain, or, it may be less wintry near the west coast if the colder air is able to extend into parts of eastern Ireland. Although there's some potential for snow, it may remain generally rather dry with this cold spell with Britain being more likely to see outbreaks of snow from the North Sea for two reasons, one being stronger east winds, the other being a deeper cold air mass reaching them. However, this is all rather speculative still and could change closer to the time. The best guess for temperatures later next week would be around -5 C at night and +3 C in the daytime. That could be adjusted by several degrees in either direction once we find out exactly how much of this easterly cold spell is going to impact Ireland.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with very light snow falling from mid-day on, 2 cm has accumulated, and the high was -2 C. The eastern U.S. got a light snowfall in places ahead of a complex mixture of sleet, rain and snow expected on the weekend. The heaviest snow appears to be heading for Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York state and New England inland from the Atlantic coast. About 20-30 cms could fall in those states.

(reminder: total eclipse of the Moon visible from about 0430 to 0600h Irish time on Monday morning, weather permitting)

M.T. Cranium · 19-01-2019 8:26am

Saturday, 19 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few widely scattered showers, some sleety over higher terrain. Rather cold, but winds should remain moderate at worst, with highs 6 to 9 C, the milder readings likely to be in Munster and south to west Connacht.

TONIGHT ... One or two residual showers could turn wintry as it will be rather cold, with some scattered light frosts possible. Lows about -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some longer intervals of sunshine than we've been used to seeing most of this winter, but also isolated wintry showers. Highs 6 to 9 C.

MONDAY ... A sharp frost in the morning hours, but with clear intervals that promises a fairly good chance to see the total eclipse of the Moon between 0430 and 0600h (look to the west for the setting moon). Increasing cloud during the day with southwest winds becoming stronger, reaching 50 to 80 km/hr, followed by outbreaks of rain. Lows -4 to +1 C and highs 6 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and turning colder, winds northwest 50 to 80 km/hr, outbreaks of sleet or cold rain possibly turning to snow on higher ground or even down to lower elevations at times, temperatures steady in the 3 to 5 C range.

OUTLOOK ... This is where the guidance diverges into two rather different camps. One portion suggests that most of the week will remain cool but not dramatically cold, with passing showers in northwest winds, and the risk of stronger winds developing by the weekend of 26th and 27th, eventually becoming quite cold before the month ends. The other camp says that the colder turn on Tuesday will just be the start of a prolonged colder spell with severe cold moving as close as Britain and possibly touching Leinster if not all of Ireland at times next week. That scenario promises snow showers in abundance for England and Scotland, not too sure about Ireland being included even if this camp wins out, but it could enter the forecast. Camp "A" would feature temperatures around 5 to 7 C daytime and 0 to 2 C overnight, while camp "B" would be several degrees colder than that (so no return to the very mild scenario earlier in the month either way). The reality could of course be a compromise of some of menu A and some of menu B. I would tell you my preference or hunch but I don't really have one given the roughly equal likelihood of either camp being right or wrong from all the signs available.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with very small amounts of drizzle but no further snow on top of the 3-4 cm fall we had the previous day. That remains on top of the previous now largely frozen 6 to 8 cms from earlier falls, so it looks wintry outside, although the snow depth here could be three or four times this much based on climatology. Up in the mountains around here they have about 40 cms which is also not quite a normal amount, so no big crises of snow as they are seeing in Austria this winter. The winter storm I've been mentioning is currently in Arkansas pumping up some very mild air into the southeast U.S., while much colder air rushes in to replace it across Kansas and Oklahoma tonight. This is producing snow further north around St Louis to Columbus Ohio, and that snow will move into PA, upstate NY and northern New England tomorrow into Sunday. The coastal cities will get a bit of everything (snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, strong winds) and end up with a much colder blast from the northwest on Monday. This storm is important to the forecast because much depends on whether it ends up east or west of Greenland, and the two camps that I mentioned have two different outcomes on that question. (East takes it near Iceland and drops it into your part of the world by mid-week, west keeps it out of the developing situation over the north Atlantic which could tip the scales towards a colder outcome).

M.T. Cranium · 20-01-2019 8:27am

Sunday, 20 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... A few showers with sleet mixing in on higher ground, but a general clearing trend by afternoon, rather chilly north to northeast winds 40 to 60 km/hr, but a bit of sunshine may compensate for that. Highs 5 to 8 C for most, near 10 C around coastal Munster and Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold, frost in most areas. Lows -4 to -1 C. (eclipse of the moon visible 0430 to 0600h, look to your southwest to west as the event proceeds). Some fog patches in valleys by dawn. Widespread icy roads on less travelled routes, and a windscreen scrape likely to take a few minutes of your time (or take a container of hot water out with you, and save yourself the bother).

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine and very cold in the morning, increasing cloud from northwest to southeast mid-day, a few raindrops or sleet on hills by early evening in Ulster and north Connacht, winds calm at first then increasing to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers turning wintry as colder air returns from the northwest on gusty winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Hail, sleet and some snow in the mix, mingled with sunny breaks. Temperatures steady in the 2 to 5 C range. Feeling very cold in the wind.

WEDNESDAY ... Still rather cold but mild enough that any showers will probably be sleet or rain, lows near -2 C inland, +2 C coastal and cities, then highs near 7 C. Moderate west to northwest winds.

OUTLOOK ... Most guidance is still roughly similar to what we discussed yesterday, I won't go through all that again, but there seems to be a consensus that one or two milder days will return before a more prolonged cold spell is even possible, and there it's a case of getting things to line up so that winds turn sufficiently northerly then perhaps easterly to tap the much colder air lurking off in those directions. I would say confidence in a significant cold spell is moderate rather than low or high. It's better (if you want a cold spell) than just faint signs, but it would be ideal if the models picked up a more robust signal and developed it along similar lines, because one wants to bring in cold air from the north, another from the east, and a third one might be more about cold just developing locally from a lack of milder air moving into the leftover transitional air mass. So it's still a wait and see scenario past mid-week.

My local weather on Saturday failed to produce any snow as the bands broke up just before reaching us, but it looks like being delivered overnight now, with gradual clearing on Sunday. We might see the eclipse through broken cloud layers (on Sunday evening in our time zone) or we might not, this valley often stays cloudier than most other parts of the region. Meanwhile, snow is spreading through Pennsylvania into New York state and parts of New England away from the Atlantic coast, as well as southern Ontario and Quebec. Some places may get as much as 40 cms. Sleet and freezing rain is more prevalent near the coast, with a heavy rain in parts of Virginia to southern New Jersey and Long Island. Airport delays are likely for travellers in the eastern and central U.S. as much colder air hits on Monday, with icing problems.

(one last reminder -- eclipse visible before sunrise Monday, check it any time after 0430h, looking to southwest in Ireland, or in eastern North America, high to south around 11 p.m. to midnight. Midpoint of totality is 0517 GMT).

M.T. Cranium · 21-01-2019 8:43am

Monday, 21 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Increasing cloud this morning, staying quite cold with the frost slowly dissipating. Overcast with outbreaks of light rain by afternoon or evening, winds increasing to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs eventually reaching 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain changing to sleet, some snow especially on higher terrain, winds veering to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr. Lows near 1 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills, sleet or hail showers near sea level, mixed with some sunny breaks, in gusty west to northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, adding chill factor to highs only 4 to 6 C. Feeling closer to -1 C. Some thunder possible with showers of various types.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather cold, passing showers more sleet or rain, with some hail, than snow as temperatures warm slightly, lows about -1 C and highs about 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder (briefly) with highs about 11 C.

SATURDAY ... Rain or sleet, some snow showers on hills, windy and cold, temperatures steady near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... This pattern of largely cold (modified rather than severe cold) and briefly milder interludes will continue the following week, according to most guidance. Timing is not that reliable so far in advance but the next cycle of brief milder weather should occur around mid-week with the following colder spell later in the week near the end of January. There is always going to be some risk of severe cold developing as the guidance is only approximately reliable in this situation. If that does happen, then some risks of heavier snow would arise, but in this modified cold pattern, the snow is likely to be fleeting and mostly (although not always) confined to hilly areas.

My local weather on Sunday continued mostly cloudy and rather mild with a high near 3 C. We had marginal viewing conditions in the evening (in our time zone) for the lunar eclipse, but those improved slowly towards the end of the totality phase, so we got a fairly good view although from what I've seen on the internet, a much subdued colour through the higher cloud layers. With that partial clearing it has dropped below -2 C here. They are digging out of the heavy snow in parts of the interior northeastern U.S. but as we speculated, it was mostly mixed liquid to frozen types on the coast in the larger cities. One of the heavier snowfalls was about 50 cms in the Lake Ontario snowbelt areas from Rochester to Watertown NY. Burlington VT also got about 40 cms. Boston MA has had less snow this winter (so far) than just about anywhere that normally gets snow, a mere 5 cms most of which was in this storm. Even New York and Washington DC have had more. Philadelphia has also had very small amounts. Seattle WA however has had zero snowfall for the winter, which is a bit unusual (their average is about 25 cms). The Midwest and Great Lakes regions have had near normal amounts of snow in most cases.

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2019 8:32am

Tuesday, 22 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills, sleet or hail showers near sea level, mixed with some sunny breaks, in gusty west to northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, adding chill factor to highs only 4 to 6 C. Feeling closer to -1 C. Some thunder possible with showers of various types. Heavier showers of all types are likely to be found in north and west but could happen anywhere. Watch for patches of black ice on roads both this morning and again this evening after sunset.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and cold, icy on some secondary roads, lows -2 to +2 C. Passing sleety showers with a renewed risk of snow accumulations on higher ground in north.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather cold, passing showers more sleet or rain, with some hail, than snow as temperatures warm slightly, lows about -1 C and highs about 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, highs near 8 C except 10 to 12 C near west coast. Winds backing to westerly and increasing to 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder (briefly) with highs about 11 C. This may last to late afternoon then much colder air will return on Friday night or at the latest, early morning Saturday (some difference of opinion on timing). Rain will accompany this front and turn to sleet and wet snow overnight in some higher parts of the north and west.

SATURDAY ... Rain or sleet, some snow showers on hills, windy and cold, temperatures steady near 5 C or falling slowly, reaching 2 C by late afternoon and below freezing overnight.

OUTLOOK ... The guidance continues to be fairly similar on most models and shows a continuing pattern of cold unstable air masses persisting about 70% of the time and milder Atlantic flows intruding for the other 30%. While this would not be severe wintry cold, it will tend to bring more snow to west and north than an easterly might have done, and certainly a lot less to east coast locations. Eventually there are some signs of a turn in wind direction towards the northeast by the end of the month. That might bring on even colder weather eventually.

My local weather was a welcome change to sunshine and highs near 2 C in a rather chilly northwest wind. We now have a frozen snow pack of about 5-10 cms that will require heavy rain or very mild temperatures to thaw, otherwise it looks like snow but feels like ice (and it cannot be moved very easily). Up in the local mountains there is a softer snow pack of about 40 cms. The eastern regions of North America (at least inland from the coast) saw bright cold weather and they have massive snow or ice problems in the wake of the major storm on the weekend, with no thaw and bitter cold near -20 C. Yet the next storm coming along is supposed to bring a mix of rain and snow to some of these areas and another rainfall to the coastal cities (around Thursday). Snow lovers in that part of the world at least have local mountains where they can find lots of snow, but the coastal plain is now bare after some snow fell about a week ago there.

Anyway, keep your guard up (or your hopes high if you want snow and cold) because the pattern at the moment is one where much colder trends could easily develop, the modified milder intrusions from the Atlantic could turn into battleground snow or sleet scenarios in another week or two with just a slight southward shift in the jet stream.

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2019 8:33am

Tuesday, 22 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on hills, sleet or hail showers near sea level, mixed with some sunny breaks, in gusty west to northwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, adding chill factor to highs only 4 to 6 C. Feeling closer to -1 C. Some thunder possible with showers of various types. Heavier showers of all types are likely to be found in north and west but could happen anywhere. Watch for patches of black ice on roads both this morning and again this evening after sunset.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and cold, icy on some secondary roads, lows -2 to +2 C. Passing sleety showers with a renewed risk of snow accumulations on higher ground in north.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather cold, passing showers more sleet or rain, with some hail, than snow as temperatures warm slightly, lows about -1 C and highs about 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, highs near 8 C except 10 to 12 C near west coast. Winds backing to westerly and increasing to 40 to 70 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder (briefly) with highs about 11 C. This may last to late afternoon then much colder air will return on Friday night or at the latest, early morning Saturday (some difference of opinion on timing). Rain will accompany this front and turn to sleet and wet snow overnight in some higher parts of the north and west.

SATURDAY ... Rain or sleet, some snow showers on hills, windy and cold, temperatures steady near 5 C or falling slowly, reaching 2 C by late afternoon and below freezing overnight.

OUTLOOK ... The guidance continues to be fairly similar on most models and shows a continuing pattern of cold unstable air masses persisting about 70% of the time and milder Atlantic flows intruding for the other 30%. While this would not be severe wintry cold, it will tend to bring more snow to west and north than an easterly might have done, and certainly a lot less to east coast locations. Eventually there are some signs of a turn in wind direction towards the northeast by the end of the month. That might bring on even colder weather eventually.

My local weather was a welcome change to sunshine and highs near 2 C in a rather chilly northwest wind. We now have a frozen snow pack of about 5-10 cms that will require heavy rain or very mild temperatures to thaw, otherwise it looks like snow but feels like ice (and it cannot be moved very easily). Up in the local mountains there is a softer snow pack of about 40 cms. The eastern regions of North America (at least inland from the coast) saw bright cold weather and they have massive snow or ice problems in the wake of the major storm on the weekend, with no thaw and bitter cold near -20 C. Yet the next storm coming along is supposed to bring a mix of rain and snow to some of these areas and another rainfall to the coastal cities (around Thursday). Snow lovers in that part of the world at least have local mountains where they can find lots of snow, but the coastal plain is now bare after some snow fell about a week ago there.

Anyway, keep your guard up (or your hopes high if you want snow and cold) because the pattern at the moment is one where much colder trends could easily develop, the modified milder intrusions from the Atlantic could turn into battleground snow or sleet scenarios in another week or two with just a slight southward shift in the jet stream.

M.T. Cranium · 23-01-2019 8:16am

Wednesday, 23 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few wintry showers but with the trend for these to become more confined to higher ground and the northeast. Moderate west to northwest winds at times, highs 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some isolated showers, some of them wintry in east Ulster and north Leinster. Lows -1 to +3 C there, otherwise about 4 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, some outbreaks of light rain developing, milder. Highs 8 to 11 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy, mild, generally a dry day with limited amounts of sunshine, rain by evening from north to south. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs about 11 or 12 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and turning sharply colder around daybreak, temperatures steady near 5 C falling to near 2 C by evening. Mixed wintry showers in a strong and gusty northwest wind 50 to 80 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and cold, wintry showers and some sunshine at times, lows near -3 C and highs near 5 C.

MONDAY ... A brief milder interval in the south with rain, but quickly turning colder again, temperatures may reach 7 C in the south but will remain in the 3 to 5 C range further north, mixed wintry showers returning as any rain left over turns to sleet in the south.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and very cold during the last few days of January and into early February, with risk of snow, although temperatures still appear just marginal enough to suggest a mixture of showery precipitation types. Highs around 4 C, overnight lows -4 to -2 C. Winds generally from the northwest 50 to 80 km/hr but may back to northeast by end of the month and into early February. So far, we are not seeing signs of the heavy snowfall experienced last winter (28 Feb to 1 March) in Ireland although some parts of Britain could begin to see moderate amounts of snow in the next two weeks. A few very high areas of the north could accumulate some significant amounts.

My local weather on Tuesday featured 5-8 cms of wet snow falling on the previously frozen cover, with temperatures steady near -1 C.

M.T. Cranium · 24-01-2019 8:19am

Thursday, 24 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

Mild air is acting a bit like that person who said they were leaving half an hour ago but they keep remembering something and come back in. But they do have an important trip to take (to Egypt) very soon and you must drive them to the airport. Make sure they have a one-way ticket.

TODAY and TOMORROW will be mild again, with temperatures staying in the 8 to 12 C range most of the time, and occasional light rain will fall once the warm frontal band now in the east lets up later this morning. Moderate southwest to west winds 40 to 70 km/hr will keep pumping the mild air in from the Atlantic.

SATURDAY morning will also be rather mild but increasingly windy. It will turn sharply colder during the morning hours in the west, and by mid-day in the east, with temperatures still up around 8 C before dropping rapidly to about 3 or 4 C in strong gales from the northwest. Rain will turn to sleet then mixed wintry showers in northwest winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr by evening. These very strong winds will howl all night into Sunday morning with temperatures steady near 1 or 2 C, and snow accumulating on hills, mixed wintry showers lower down.

SUNDAY will continue very windy and cold with further falls of sleet or snow, hail showers and sometimes a cold rain or ice pellets. Winds of 70 to 100 km/hr will continue from northwest to north. Temperatures will be steady near 2 C. Significant snowfalls are possible on higher ground in Ulster, north Connacht and peaks further south and east.

MONDAY will see a slight relaxation of both winds and temperatures but it will turn colder again later in the day after perhaps reaching 5 to 7 degrees briefly. Showers will turn to mostly rain for a time, then switch back to the mixed wintry variety. Winds rather light for the milder interlude then northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Temperatures will fall to about 2 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue wintry with occasional sleety showers, some risk of snow on higher terrain especially, and temperatures staying in the colder than average range of 3 to 6 C with slight frosts each night.

Late THURSDAY into FRIDAY (1 Feb) a storm may approach with sleet and strong east winds, and this could turn to snow by Saturday 2nd of February, according to current guidance, as easterly winds increase due to the deep low pressure tracking southeast into France. While this does not yet look quite like the snowmageddon scenario of last winter, it does look capable of becoming a heavy snow producer in some places and especially on hills in Leinster and east Munster. Although we have been bombarded with false scenarios at this range for about a month, this one has fairly wide support across most guidance. Beyond that it would likely stay cold for at least another week.

My local weather saw mostly cloudy skies but no further snow, and it struggled up to the freezing point for a high, so our nice new 10 cm snow cover remained largely untouched. Underneath it is sheer ice so this is one good reason not to move it (except on the previously cleared walks, but I digress) ... rain is now falling in parts of the Great Lakes region where snow was heavy on the weekend and it's creating a nasty mess for them. Fresh snow is falling further north around Lake Superior and a very cold air mass is forming up over central Canada waiting to blast down towards Florida and the southeastern states. This reminds me, if by any chance you have holidays booked in either Florida or the western Med regions, check specific weather for the coming week or two, as some unseasonable cold is headed to both of those holiday destinations. The guidance keeps changing so wait until you have to make a decision (or preparation) to check on the latest, it may not be beach weather or anything close to that at times.

M.T. Cranium · 25-01-2019 9:00am

It's true, the models we use in forecasting really blend very well into the joke thread over in AH, which is why I divide my time, helps me get into the groove.

Here's the update -- I will just say that it's pretty much the same forecast but with some added uncertainty towards the end (again) as the models once again diverge into various alternate outcomes (some are similar to what we discussed yesterday so it's not entirely a reversal) ...

Friday, 25 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Continued mild, occasional spots of drizzle and brighter intervals in a moderate westerly breeze, highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Mild with rain developing, southwest winds increasing to 40 to 70 km/hr. Lows 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... the morning will also be rather mild but increasingly windy. It will turn sharply colder during the morning hours in the west, and by mid-day in the east, with temperatures still up around 8 C before dropping rapidly to about 3 or 4 C in strong gales from the northwest. Rain will turn to sleet then mixed wintry showers in northwest winds increasing to 70-110 km/hr by evening. These very strong winds will howl all night into Sunday morning with temperatures steady near 1 or 2 C in east, 3 or 4 C west, and snow accumulating on some northern hills, mixed wintry showers lower down.

SUNDAY will continue very windy and cold with further falls of sleet or snow, hail showers and sometimes a cold rain or ice pellets. Winds of 70 to 100 km/hr will continue from northwest to north. Temperatures will be steady near 2 C in Ulster, 3 to 5 C elsewhere. Significant snowfalls are possible on higher ground in Ulster, north Connacht and peaks further south and east.

MONDAY will see a slight relaxation of both winds and temperatures but it will turn colder again later in the day after perhaps reaching 5 to 7 degrees briefly. Showers will turn to mostly rain for a time, then switch back to the mixed wintry variety. Winds rather light for the milder interlude then northwest 40 to 70 km/hr. Temperatures will fall to about 2 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY will continue wintry with occasional sleety showers, some risk of snow on higher terrain especially, and temperatures staying in the colder than average range of 3 to 6 C with slight frosts each night. Some guidance is bringing a mixed bag of sleet, cold rain and wet snow through parts of the south around Thursday morning, while other guidance keeps this off to the south so that it would be more of a showery (but cold) scenario.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY (1 to 3 Feb) is now something of a tossup between wintry showers and locally signficant snow, temperatures around 2 to 4 C, according to about half the guidance, or a slight warming trend with rain showers but staying rather cold, 4 to 7 C. These would not feel all that different so if we split the difference for now and say overcast, rain with some sleet or wet snow on hills, and near 5 C, that might work out fairly well.

The general theme in North America is that extreme cold, which has persisted all winter in north-central Canada, is going to start flowing out of its source region in waves, a process that started about a week ago but is intensifying tonight behind the latest storm system moving into Quebec and New England. This one will form a secondary on the east coast that may bring sleet to some of the larger cities before the cold air moves in. Then a storm develops over the Canadian prairies, turns into a blizzard for the northern plains Sunday and the Great Lakes region Monday. This one will be followed by extreme cold near -30 C with wind chill values to -45 C. The models are having some problems dealing with these extremes, which can generate powerful storms over the warm Atlantic waters (and despite this cold air, the Gulf stream is actually warmer than average east of the U.S.). Where those powerful storms then go will determine the details of weather in western Europe about three to four days week later. My own weather has been rather tranquil, as the mild Pacific air is holding this colder air mass off to our east for now. We might get a slight fall in temperature when the outer edge of the arctic air slides over two mountain ranges to our east and gets into our valley by Monday or so. But I don't expect it to go much lower than -7 C here. The high on Thursday was 3 C.

Bottom line -- Ireland may escape the worst of the potential for wintry weather (or the best depending on your point of view) but that is not guaranteed in this volatile situation. Some of the biggest snowfalls in Irish weather history have been in February, March or even April, so the book is far from closed.

M.T. Cranium · 26-01-2019 8:17am

In case you were wondering what the commentary was about, some jokes got posted on this thread yesterday and I see the mods removed them, but I was just saying, the models have been a bit of a joke recently with all the changes and scenarios that fail to materialize on them.

Saturday, 26 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mild at first with some outbreaks of rain developing, winds increasing to southwest 50-80 km/hr, then some squally showers, possible hail and thunder, followed by clearing for a time, and winds veering to northwest 60-90 km/hr. Turning much colder, temperatures dropping from 8-10 C to around 3-5 C. Some wintry showers will follow. By later today and overnight be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions especially in the north and west, with locally poor driving conditions as a result of heavy wintry precipitation and strong wind gusts.

TONIGHT ... Very windy and cold with mixed wintry showers, some accumulations of snow on higher terrain. Lows 1-3 C. Winds northwest to north 70-110 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Continued very windy and cold, passing squally and wintry showers, some reduced visibility in sleet, hail or snow at times. Winds northerly 80-120 km/hr. Temperatures steady 3 to 5 C but feeling more like -10 C in the full strength of that north wind, also temperatures could drop to freezing or close to it, during heavier squalls.

MONDAY ... Winds dying down by morning, still rather cold and unsettled, mixed showers with an increasing risk of snow as it turns colder again. Temperatures rising to about 5-7 C for a few hours then falling back to 1-3 C. Some accumulations of snow on hills.

TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY will continue rather windy again and very cold, winds northwest 50-80 km/hr, passing wintry showers and some risk of snow almost anywhere during the period. Highs near 4 C and lows near -1 C.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY will bring the risk of sleet or wet snow in several rounds of disturbed weather on east to northeast winds. The details remain a bit sketchy and temperatures could be anywhere from 2 to 7 C so that will affect the elevation where snow might be encountered. Winds likely to be moderate to strong at times.

FURTHER OUTLOOK remains guesswork with models all over the place, some showing quite cold conditions with a brief very cold interval, and others staying in more of the sleety Atlantic cold westerly theme.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and mild with a high near 3 C, after a slight snowfall in the early hours. We are expecting a dry Saturday, snow on Sunday, and colder weather next week. Extreme cold has developed over central North America and is going to create a blizzard-like snowstorm for the Great Lakes on Monday with record low temperatures to follow around mid-week (it is already well below normal today).

M.T. Cranium · 27-01-2019 8:03am

Sunday, 27 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very windy and cold with passing sleety showers, some hail, and snow on hills. Some sunny intervals in the mix also. Winds north backing to northwest 70 to 110 km/hr this morning then easing during the afternoon to northwest 50 to 70 km/hr. Highs about 4 C in the north inland, to 8 C along the south coast, but generally feeling much colder due to the wind.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud and sleety showers turning to rain over northwest coastal areas by morning. Lows near -1 C inland south and east, to +2 C west and north.

MONDAY ... Rather breezy at times, temperatures may drift up slightly as a weak disturbance passes from northwest to southeast, with an interval of light rain turning to sleet on higher ground, highs near 7 C. Temperatures will then drop slowly in a blustery northwest wind following this disturbance.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals. Winds could be fairly moderate unless a storm passing just to the south of Ireland goes a bit off track and spreads its strong winds inland. Rather cold, with scattered wintry showers, some snow on hills. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and raw with mixed sleety falls of rain, wet snow or hail, in blustery east to northeast winds, temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C but colder on higher ground especially after any snow accumulates.

THURSDAY ... Windy, cold, some further sleet or snow, then partial clearing for parts of the north and west, more frequent wintry showers in east and south. Temperatures remaining steady around 4 or 5 C.

FRIDAY ... Brighter intervals and cold with a strong northeast wind at times, risk of snow near east coast in streamers. Lows near -3 C and highs near 3 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This cold, unsettled pattern will continue for the first half of February, it appears, with similar trends, a few days of cloudy, windy and showery weather with some risk of snow or sleet, and a few days of brighter cold weather, and perhaps one or two more brief intrusions of milder air masses. Temperatures will be generally about 1 to 2 degrees below average but not so cold that we can guarantee significant snowfalls, away from higher slopes. You would have to think that if this pattern locks in for weeks, sooner or later everything will align and snow will happen at lower elevations.

My local weather was overcast and mild as we wait for a strong cold front to sweep through Sunday morning. The Great Lakes region will be bracing late Sunday for the expected arrival of a blizzard from the Canadian prairies, just getting organized now around central Alberta. This will bring 10-30 cm snowfalls to most of the region it traverses today and Monday. When it reaches Ontario, another blast of extreme cold will follow in behind it, replacing the current very cold air mass. Temperatures in parts of northern Ontario have fallen below -40 C the past few nights. Chicago and most of the Midwest are expecting near all-time record cold mid-week. The effects of the storm on the east coast will be minimal but the severe cold will reach the coastal cities (Washington, New York, Boston etc) on Tuesday with readings near -15 C there.

M.T. Cranium · 28-01-2019 8:35am

Monday, 28 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Intervals of light rain or sleet in Munster this morning, otherwise a fairly dry and bright start with moderate west to northwest winds, quite cold. Wintry showers will develop again by mid-day and afternoon, some snow on hills. Highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Isolated wintry showers, partly cloudy and cold, lows -3 to +2 C. Some icy stretches of roads in rural areas.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, mixed wintry showers and moderate west to northwest winds. Highs 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated wintry showers, cold. Lows -4 to +2 C and highs 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY will see some potential for snow although mostly sleety mixtures of rain and wet snow seem more likely, except in parts of inland Ulster and eastern Connacht, north Leinster. Moderate northeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr adding a chill to temperatures steady in the 3 to 6 C range. Some hills likely to see coatings of 3 to 5 cm snow, more likely to come and go closer to sea level.

OUTLOOK ... Dry and cold by the weekend with just a few isolated flurries or mixed wintry showers, lows near -5 C and highs near 4 C. There are some signs that this colder spell will slowly fade out by the following week with a return to near normal temperatures and some rain at times.

My local weather on Sunday was partly cloudy and rather mild, but colder air has arrived now with temperatures falling away from the earlier high near 6 C. Expecting a two-day cold spell here then milder again. Heavy snow is approaching Chicago and the rest of the lower Great Lakes region, to be followed by severe cold with -40 C windchills by mid-week. This may have a glancing effect on the east coast of the U.S., where it will rain then snow, with temperatures as low as -15 C by later in the week.

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2019 8:30am

Tuesday, 29 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sleet or rain this morning will gradually clear southeast and some sunny intervals will follow, with moderate northwest winds of about 40 to 70 km/hr. Further outbreaks of wintry showers will develop by afternoon. Some snow on hills could accumulate 2 to 4 cms. Highs only about 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, very cold. Isolated snow showers. Lows -5 to -1 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some morning sunshine, frost lingering in shaded areas, sleet or snow showers becoming more frequent, with some accumulations on hills (in Connacht and Ulster mainly). Winds backing to southeast by afternoon. Highs 3 to 6 C.

THURSDAY ... A wintry mix of snow, sleet and cold rain will spread in across the west and south, largely avoiding north Leinster and east Ulster where it will remain partly cloudy with isolated wintry showers. The sleet and snow will be heavier on higher terrain but mixtures could occur almost anywhere, with temperatures steady in the 1 to 4 C range. Raw and cold east winds will develop, and it will become very windy in coastal west Munster where sustained winds of 80 km/hr and gusts to 120 km/hr are possible. Elsewhere, winds will reach 60 to 100 km/hr. Driving conditions may be poor at times especially over higher terrain. This situation is more certain as to wind and precipitation than to the type of precipitation, so stay tuned on that aspect.

FRIDAY ... Most of the steady sleet or snow will have moved away by morning and the rest of the day will be cold and windy with bands of wintry showers developing over nearby seas and the Atlantic, and moving inland on north to northeast winds of 50 to 80 km/hr. Some locally heavy snowfalls could develop although higher elevations around south Dublin or Wicklow, and hills in Mayo and Donegal seem to be the most likely targets for snow. The majority of the population will probably see a mixture of sleety showers but the snow line will be as low as 250 metres above sea level at times. Morning lows of -4 to -1 C and highs near 3 C.

SATURDAY ... Not as windy, some sunshine, but very cold, with severe frosts -6 to -2 C, then daytime highs near 4 C.

SUNDAY and MONDAY will see a moderation to milder weather in southwest winds, some rain likely, and highs 7 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Similar cycles of weather ranging from cold and windy to mild with rain are likely as the two competing influences remain equally balanced. Cold might win a longer engagement except that severe cold in North America is occasionally generating intense storms off the east coast there, and these are at least trying to reach Europe, the one on Thursday will be running into cold air already well entrenched and this is creating the marginal snowfall situation.

My local weather was pleasantly sunny on Monday with a high near 1 C, and it's clear and cold outside now (at 11:30 pm local time), with more sunshine expected on Tuesday. The super cold air mass I described yesterday is charging south behind the snowstorm which is now dying out over Lake Huron and spawning a new disturbance by tonight over the Atlantic coastal states. This will allow the frigid air to sweep into most areas by Tuesday morning and set off another snowfall event for interior New England. Anyone with travel plans to the U.S. should note, the severe cold will not be as big an issue on the east coast (-15 C) as in the Midwest (-30 C with wind chills to -50 C). Some extremely cold temperatures were already being noted even before this new arctic air mass pushes in, from the previous outbreak. A low of -47 C was reported in northern Ontario at Geraldton (ON) Monday morning.

With the uncertainty about Thursday's outcome, I think that we should have a good idea which way the trends will go (as to mostly rain and some sleet or snow, or a lot of snow and some rain) by the next forecast.

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2019 8:35am

Wednesday, 30 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Overnight snowfalls in some parts of west and midlands, also inland west Munster, have left some roads very icy, and these conditions may persist for several hours as temperatures will be slow to rise. Generally sunny with cloudy intervals and isolated flurries or wintry showers today, moderate westerly winds backing to south overnight, cold with highs near 4 C.

TONIGHT ... Increasing cloud, very cold in most areas, temperatures rising towards morning in southwest. Lows near -4 C in most inland districts and -1 C around coasts and larger cities. Rising to about 3 C in strong southeast winds near Kerry and west Cork coastlines. Rain or sleet by morning there.

THURSDAY ... Snow or sleet will spread inland during the morning, turning to rain in some southern counties and near the east coast. Strong east to southeast winds will eventually back to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, with locally stronger winds in parts of Munster as an intense core of this storm, tracking southeast, moves through Kerry and Cork. Snowfall amounts will probably be greater at higher elevations for most but cannot rule out a few places at lower elevations getting significant falls especially towards end of the day as it turns slightly colder again. Temperatures will rise very slowly in most places to around 2 to 4 C in the mixed sleety precipitation. It seems likely that conditions will vary from one hour to the next and over short distances, as conditions are going to be right on the borderline of rain and wet snow. But hilly areas particularly in Munster and Connacht will likely see 10 to 20 cm falls. Eventually this will develop over Leinster hills also. Some parts of Ulster will not see much if any precipitation and may stay partly cloudy during the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT ... Windy, raw and possibly winter storm conditions in some areas as the rain-snow balance turns more to snowfall in strong northeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Temperatures steady near 1 C or lower, but as cold as -2 C in parts of Ulster. Snow may begin to accumulate at lower elevations than during the daytime previously.

FRIDAY ... Snow or sleet becoming more confined to isolated streamers feeding in from Irish Sea (into Leinster) and North Atlantic (into Mayo and west Galway). Some sunshine in other parts of the country, very cold, strong northeast backing to north winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs about 4 C. Some local accumulations of snow possible again.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny, cold. Sharp to severe frosts to start the day, lows near -6 C inland to -3 C coastal and urban areas. Daytime highs about 5 C. Winds not as strong, northwest 30 to 50 km/hr at times. Isolated snow flurries.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rain developing late in the day, milder. Highs 8 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... It appears from most guidance that this cold spell will end for a while next week, with temperatures back to more normal values. Rain will move through from time to time. Highs 8 to 11 C. The pattern suggests to me that another cold spell might develop around mid-February.

My local weather featured some low-hanging cloud at first, but we were on the move all day and most places we drove through had sunshine and temperatures near 2 C. Back to home base and it cleared up while we were gone, now it is -6 C. Eastern and central North America are suffering through extreme cold with readings of -35 to -45 C air temperatures in some places, and wind chills below -50 C. The conditions are so severe that most schools and colleges have closed for two days in the Midwest. They probably didn't close in Canada because, well, Canada. (eh)

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2019 8:22am

Thursday, 31 January, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... As rain develops over most of the south and west, some snow or sleet will spread inland during the morning, mostly on hills in Connacht at first, then later on some hills further south and east. Strong east to southeast winds will eventually back to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr, but there may be intervals of south to southwest winds this morning in Kerry and west Cork, which will later become southeast. Snowfall amounts will probably be greater at higher elevations for most but cannot rule out a few places at lower elevations getting significant falls especially towards end of the day as it turns slightly colder again. Temperatures will rise very slowly in most places to around 2 to 4 C in the mixed sleety precipitation. Highs of 5 to 8 C will occur around late morning in parts of the south but temperatures there will fall slowly later. Some hilly areas particularly in Munster and Connacht will likely see 10 to 20 cm falls. Eventually this will develop over Leinster hills also. Some parts of Ulster will not see much if any precipitation and may stay partly cloudy during the day.

TONIGHT ... Windy, raw and possibly winter storm conditions in some areas as the rain-snow balance turns more to snowfall in strong northeast winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Temperatures steady near 1 C or lower, but as cold as -2 C in parts of Ulster. Snow may begin to accumulate at lower elevations than during the daytime previously. Best chances for accumulating snow at lower elevations would be in parts of the inland south and east. The on-shore winds will probably bring in just enough warmth from the Irish Sea to maintain sleet or rain in the Dublin area except at higher elevations. This might trend to mostly snow around Kildare and Laois however. There is a risk of 5 to 15 cm snow accumulations in parts of the south and east but this is not a sure thing.

FRIDAY ... Snow or sleet becoming more confined to isolated streamers feeding in from Irish Sea (into Leinster) and North Atlantic (into Mayo and west Galway). Some sunshine in other parts of the country, very cold, strong northeast backing to north winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs about 4 C. Some local accumulations of snow possible again, most likely in higher parts of Connacht, Ulster and south Leinster.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny, cold. Sharp to severe frosts to start the day, lows near -6 C inland to -3 C coastal and urban areas. Daytime highs about 5 C. Winds not as strong, northwest 30 to 50 km/hr at times. Isolated snow flurries.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rain developing late in the day, milder. Highs 8 to 10 C. Strong southwest winds likely by evening, 50 to 80 km/hr and higher gusts in Donegal and Mayo.

MONDAY ... Rain clearing east, some sunshine, highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain, possibly sleet on some hills, highs 6 to 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A rather average sort of pattern for the following week but with some chance of a slightly colder turn towards the weekend of 9th-10th as high pressure pushes back from Europe for a time. After that it looks rather variable again mid-month, probably with increasing threats of colder weather by second half of the month.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast but dry, with a high near -1 C. We are expecting some snow at times for the next few days. The eastern and central regions of North America continue to cope with severe cold and wind chills, but most of the snow has let up except for isolated heavy lake effect streamers. Lake Superior has begun to freeze over, rather rapidly, due to the -40 C air temperatures on all sides. Some ice has appeared in all the other Great Lakes except Ontario (which has only frozen over completely once in recent times, that being in February 1934). Lake Erie, although further south, regularly freezes because it is shallower than all the other lakes. Lake Huron sometimes freezes and Georgian Bay, its eastern domain, almost always does. Lake Michigan seldom freezes south of about Green Bay and in recent times it seems to be 50-50 whether Superior freezes completely or not. It is the deepest of the Great Lakes so it can withstand the lower air temperatures, for a while at least. Despite being at a higher latitude and elevation here than Lake Superior, my local lake has never frozen over but sometimes has the odd patch of floating ice (probably discharged into the lake from mountain streams). It is quite a deep lake also. Smaller lakes up in the local mountains froze over in December and this is a relatively mild winter for our location.

M.T. Cranium · 01-02-2019 7:44am

Friday, 1st of February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some mixed wintry showers now confined to isolated streamers feeding in from Irish Sea (into Leinster) and by mid-day also from the North Atlantic (into Donegal, Sligo, Mayo and west Galway). Some sunshine in other parts of the country, very cold, strong northeast backing to north winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Highs about 4 C. Some local accumulations of snow possible again, most likely in higher parts of Connacht, Ulster and south Leinster. I will post an update if anything organized develops to threaten larger population areas, some of these streamers may be evident on radar later but not necessarily impacting a lot of people. Some mixed wintry showers may produce thunder also.

TONIGHT ... Clearing and very cold with widespread icy sections on roads, winds not as strong especially away from coasts where they may be northerly 40 to 60 km/hr, lows -6 to -2 C except above freezing in a few coastal areas of the northwest and southwest.

SATURDAY ... Mostly sunny, cold. Sharp to severe frosts to start the day, lows near -6 C inland to -2 C coastal and urban areas. Daytime highs about 5 C. Winds not as strong, northwest 30 to 50 km/hr at times. Isolated snow flurries.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, snow, sleet and rain developing late in the day, temperatures at first rather cold after lows near -3 C, then turning gradually milder. Highs 8 to 10 C by evening. Strong southwest winds likely by evening, 50 to 80 km/hr and higher gusts in Donegal and Mayo.

MONDAY ... Rain clearing east in the early morning hours, sharply colder with frost by morning, then some sunshine and moderating during the daytime with lows near -2 C and highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain, possibly sleet on some hills, highs 6 to 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather bland weather will follow with southwest breezes and near normal temperatures, some light rain at times. Further along into February, a mixed bag is advertised with some colder spells, some rather windy days with rain, etc. Looks like a continued battle for supremacy may be reinstated after this coming quieter stretch of weather next week. I have to wonder with all the promise of colder weather and somewhat poor results (in Ireland at least) that there might be an event similar to last year with a late wintry surge.

My local weather on Thursday was cloudy and quite cold with highs around -4 C. We are expecting some snow for several days and a drop in temperatures into the very cold -10 to -15 range next week. This will be our first really severe spell this winter. The severe cold further east is slowly moderating and a milder pattern is developing as upper features are showing some retrograde motion (moving east to west).

M.T. Cranium · 02-02-2019 8:32am

Saturday, 2 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny and cold with lingering frost in eastern and central counties, scattered wintry showers developing in west, some localized snowfalls possible. Highs 3 to 6 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear and frosty for most, increasing cloud west, sleet or snow developing inland with rain near coast in west by morning. Lows about -4 C east to +2 C west.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of sleet or snow but gradually changing to rain except on highest terrain, then some clearing, but a return of rain by evening as it gets quite windy from southwest. Highs 7 to 9 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Windy with some severe gusts possible near coasts of Mayo and Donegal. Winds generally southwest 50 to 80 km/hr but as strong as 110 km/hr in exposed coastal areas. Rain at times. Lows near 4 C.

MONDAY ... Clearing, breezy, highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, milder, rain at times, highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, wintry showers, turning colder, highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... The colder mid-week interval will slowly fade out later in the week then milder again for a few days, peaking around 13 C by the end of the weekend (9th-10th) into Monday 11th. A more variable pattern will follow with some rather cold days returning.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with sleet turning to rain with temperatures steady near 2 C. This will change back to snow in advance of a strong cold front expected here by mid-day, then it looks like several weeks of quite cold weather compared to the mild January just finished. Continued moderation in the eastern half of North America with mild weather on the way in for the week. Eventually becoming rather stormy in the Great Lakes region.

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2019 8:24am

Sunday, 3 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Outbreaks of light rain this morning will clear east, some partly cloudy intervals mid-day will be followed by a heavier band of rain by late afternoon and evening. Moderate southwest winds becoming rather strong in Connacht and west Ulster later, 40 to 70 km/hr for most, locally gusting to 90 km/hr. Highs 8 to 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Windy with rain (10-15 mm likely) then turning colder after midnight with rapid clearing, lows -2 to +2 C. It may be too breezy for much frost to develop except in very sheltered locations.

MONDAY ... Sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, rain developing by evening. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with another 10-15 mm rainfall event, south to southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, morning lows near 6 C and afternoon highs near 11 C. Colder air will begin to arrive by late afternoon in the west.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be breezy and rather cold with passing showers of rain or hail, some snow on summits. Lows near -2 C each day and highs near 7 C at sea level, 4 or 5 C higher inland areas.

OUTLOOK ... Generally rather mild from Friday onward, with risk of strong winds developing at times next weekend, highs 10 to 12 C. Very mild around mid-month, possibly well into the mid-teens by about Valentines' Day. Any return to wintry weather will be quite late in the month from the looks of the charts at present (although it will be slightly wintry mid-week).

My local weather on Saturday was partly cloudy with colder air holding off just to the north, filtering in now as a weak disturbance on the arctic front tracks by to the southeast. Once the arctic air gets in here temperatures will drop from current -2 C to around -8 C and it will stay quite cold here for a week or two. Milder trends continue in eastern North America. However, there are some signs of a severe ice storm developing by about Thursday for parts of the lower Great Lakes and Midwest regions. Temperatures will be into the 10-15 C range on the east coast soon and will remain there most of the week.

M.T. Cranium · 04-02-2019 8:24am

Monday, 4 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, rain developing in western counties by evening. Highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain spreading to east, 10 to 15 mm expected, lows near 6 C although it may drop lower briefly in parts of north Leinster and east Ulster before cloud thickens.

TUESDAY ... Windy with another 10-15 mm rainfall event, south to southwest winds 50 to 80 km/hr, morning lows near 6 C and afternoon highs near 11 C. Colder air will begin to arrive by late afternoon in the west.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and rather cold with passing showers of rain or hail, some snow on summits. Lows near -2 C and highs near 7 C at sea level, 4 or 5 C higher inland areas. Longer spells of rain by evening and overnight, sleet possible on higher terrain.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, cool with passing showers, some wintry on higher ground. Lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with outbreaks of rain heavy at times, highs near 10 C. Winds southwest 60 to 100 km/hr at current estimates, but possibly stronger, so an event to be watched.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler again over weekend of 9th-10th with showers and gusty winds, then a more settled interval during the following week, reasonably mild but some frosts possible in the inland southeast, as somewhat colder air reaches Britain from central Europe. Eventually it could turn very mild as high pressure sinks further south.

My local weather was what you might call Baltic (nobody here would recognize that phrase) with very strong north winds in our valley and a mist of light snow with falling temperatures. It was -2 C at sunrise, -7 C at sunset and about -10 C now, with wind chill reducing those numbers by at least 10, with gusts to 80 km/hr. Quite a sharp change from all the bland nearly featureless weather we had in January.

Note: new moon occurs today at 2105h (9:05 p.m.) or 4:05 p.m. for readers in the eastern time zone of North America.

DOCARCH · 04-02-2019 1:02pm

Just to note, this thread has now exceeded 5M views!!!

The most viewed thread on Boards.ie (as far as we are aware).

A huge thanks to MT for his ongoing commitment and invaluable contribution.

Just to add a Mod Note[/B] here....to avoid taking this thread off track....no further replies please!!!....on this thread.

M.T. Cranium · 05-02-2019 8:26am

And also thanks to those forum members who have provided assistance with this thread both directly by making forecasts when I have time away, and indirectly by their work on other threads of forecast interest, that I can follow and direct readers to follow. This may seem like a lone wolf operation but in many ways it has been a team effort and I appreciate it ...

Tuesday, 5 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Breezy and briefly milder with showery outbreaks of rain, sometimes heavy but not expected to amount to much more than 10 mm, with winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, highs 11 to 13 C. Turning colder in stages this evening as winds veer to westerly, further showers likely.

TONIGHT ... Breezy and turning rather cold after midnight, lows 1 to 3 C. A few more showers likely.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy and cold with passing showers, some of them mixed wintry showers on higher ground. Longer intervals of rain likely by evening. Highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, occasional light rain, lows near 1 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Very windy with rain, heavy at times. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr becoming stronger by afternoon, 80 to 110 km/hr at least, watching this for possibly even stronger gusts. About 15 to 25 mm rain likely also. Highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Winds becoming less forceful by morning, but continuing rather breezy all day, showers, highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Breezy and turning colder again, further showers and some mixed wintry falls on higher ground in north, highs near 6 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week appears likely to stay relatively mild despite some cold air lurking off to the east and possibly affecting parts of southern Britain at times. The flow will remain southerly (according to most guidance) and while the week could start with some light frosts the days will easily reach 9 or 10 C and perhaps a bit higher.

My local weather on Monday was sunny and bitterly cold, with the strong north wind gradually easing to more moderate levels, but still adding several degrees of chill to daytime highs of only about -8 C (about as cold as it gets here usually). Clear and -15 C outside now. We are locked into this cold spell for several weeks by the looks of the guidance, with another snow and wind event this coming weekend. It has become very mild in the eastern U.S. and southern Ontario, readings above 10 C to near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium · 06-02-2019 8:28am

Wednesday, 6 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, passing showers, some heavier rain developing by afternoon (west) to evening (east), with sleet or wet snow possible towards the end of that precipitation. Highs near 8 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain turning to sleet or wet snow then clearing, colder. Lows near 2 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, wintry showers, becoming windy (south to southwest 50 to 80 km/hr) by late in the day, highs near 8 C.

FRIDAY ... Very windy with heavy rain at times, 15 to 30 mm likely. Winds southwest to west 60 to 110 km/hr, and potential for higher gusts in parts of the west and north, in particular Galway Bay region. Highs near 10 C. Some guidance shows potential for 130 km/hr wind gusts so stay tuned.

SATURDAY ... Windy, showers or intervals of rain, severe gusts moderating but still 40 to 70 km/hr most of the day, highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Risk of sleet or snow during the early morning when winds veer to northerly, lows of about 1 C. A rather cold day will follow with passing wintry showers in a northerly wind, highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of the following week should be mild again with a southwest wind redeveloping and highs near 10 C, possibly a bit higher in south and west. There will be rain at times but a drying trend as high pressure pushes west from central Europe. So far it appears that any colder air from that will be either moderated or confined to southern Britain but it may bring some frosts to inland southeastern counties.

My local weather remained very cold with sunshine and moderate but at times brisk northerly winds. Highs only around -7 C and morning lows reported to be -20 C in nearby hilly areas. Meanwhile, a freezing rain storm has hit northwest of Chicago with milder air streaming into the lower Great Lakes and northeastern states. A stronger storm is developing and heavy snow will follow in parts of the upper Midwest by tomorrow.

M.T. Cranium · 07-02-2019 8:23am

Thursday, 7 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some sunny intervals and breezy, isolated showers but long dry intervals for most, winds westerly 40 to 70 km/hr. Rain will develop along with stronger south to southwest winds by late afternoon in the west.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming heavy at times, strong south to southwest winds increasing to 70 to 110 km/hr. About 10 to 20 mm rain by morning, 5 to 10 in eastern counties where it will start later. Lows about 7 C.

FRIDAY ... Very windy, with peak gusts around late morning and mid-day hours in western counties. Winds southwest veering to westerly later, 80 to 120 km/hr in exposed west coast regions, 60 to 100 km/hr fairly widespread elsewhere (110 km/hr exposed coastal areas). A further 5-10 mm rain in the morning and some clearing followed by more passing squally showers. Temperatures steady around 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Still quite breezy and not as mild, with winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, occasional rain likely (2-5 mm). Temperatures steady around 7 C falling to 4 C by evening.

SUNDAY ... Wet snow or sleet in the morning on some higher ground in south and east, followed by variable cloud and wintry showers in a gusty north to northwest wind. Temperatures around 4 C.

MONDAY ... Bright but chilly for most, milder by afternoon in western counties, as a southerly flow resumes. Lows near -2 C and highs around 8 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week will be generally mild with occasional rain but longer dry intervals for eastern counties, with some influence felt in the southeast and east coast from a colder regime setting up over eastern Britain. Highs will probably average about 11 C in the west and 7 C in the east. Nights will also show this east-west divide with some risk of frosts in the east.

My local weather on Wednesday was sunny and very cold with lows near -15 C and highs near -7 C. Expecting some light snow by Friday here then more severe cold for a week or two after that. A fairly strong low is developing in the plains states and will bring sleet and snow to the upper Midwest, but very mild temperatures further east. Highs could reach 20 C in Washington D.C. and 15 C in New York City later this week.

M.T. Cranium · 08-02-2019 8:21am

Friday, 8 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Very windy as storm "Erik" arrives, with peak gusts around morning to mid-day hours in western counties, but only a slight moderation is now expected before a second peak in winds this evening. Winds southwest veering to westerly later, 80 to 120 km/hr in exposed west coast regions, 60 to 100 km/hr fairly widespread elsewhere (110 km/hr exposed coastal areas). A further 5-10 mm rain in the morning and some clearing followed by more passing squally showers. Temperatures steady around 10 C.

TONIGHT ... A second interval of strong winds will develop, with peak gusts similar to those recorded this morning. These will blow from a west to northwest direction and may be somewhat stronger in counties near Donegal Bay than the first round, also in parts of the midlands where they find easier passage between high ground. Rain or drizzle will accompany these strong winds, as temperatures slowly fall to about 5 or 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Still quite breezy and not as mild, with winds westerly 50 to 80 km/hr, occasional rain likely (2-5 mm). Temperatures steady around 7 C falling to 4 C by evening.

SUNDAY ... Wet snow or sleet in the morning on some higher ground in south and east, followed by variable cloud and wintry showers in a gusty north to northwest wind. Temperatures around 4 or 5 C.

MONDAY ... Bright but chilly for most, milder by afternoon in western counties, as a southerly flow resumes. Lows near -2 C and highs around 8 to 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week will be generally mild with occasional rain but longer dry intervals for eastern counties, with some influence felt in the southeast and east coast from a colder regime setting up over eastern Britain. Highs will probably average about 11 C in the west and could top out near 13 C, but will average closer to 7 C in the east. Nights will also show this east-west divide with some risk of frosts in the east.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with light snow developing in the afternoon, now about 2 cm coating the ground, and it has remained bitterly cold, rising from -15 C to about -8 C during the day. As mentioned yesterday, very mild air is making a charge to the northeast over the eastern U.S., reaching New York City later today where the high may reach 17 C. Even warmer in Washington D.C. (22 C possible) although turning colder there by mid-day. This storm is producing heavy snow in northern Ontario and will move into northern Quebec today.

M.T. Cranium · 09-02-2019 8:22am

Saturday, 9 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Blustery west to northwest winds will gradually diminish to 50-80 km/hr, with passing showers sometimes rather squally, and then some longer intervals of rain developing mid-day in the west, heading mainly for the southeastern counties by evening. Rather cold with highs in the 6 to 8 C range.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, cold, rain or sleet mostly in southern counties may turn to wet snow before ending around sunrise. Lows -1 to +2 C. Watch for icy sections on roads in central and southeastern counties after midnight.

SUNDAY ... Windy and cold with sleet, hail or snow showers, sometimes cold rain near sea level, in a moderate to strong northwest to north wind occasionally reaching 60-90 km/hr. Highs only 4 to 7 C. Some snow could accumulate on higher terrain. Clearing and very cold overnight into Monday morning, frosts and lows near -3 C.

MONDAY ... After a frosty start, gradual moderation of temperatures and relatively calm conditions with partly sunny skies, a big improvement that should last most of the week, with highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy east, overcast west with occasional light rain, mild. Highs near 11 C in a southwest wind of 30 to 50 km/hr.

OUTLOOK ... Generally mild and dry, with another outbreak of light rain around Friday. Highs near 12 C in western counties, 9 on average in eastern counties. Nights may be close to freezing when skies clear. Eventually, a more unsettled pattern returns in time for the weekend of the 16th-17th after which it may begin to turn somewhat colder.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with light snow but slightly milder with a high near -5 C. We are going back into the deep freeze on Saturday as northerly winds develop, expecting a wind chill of -20 C later today.

M.T. Cranium · 10-02-2019 7:51am

Sunday, 10 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy, some outbreaks of sleety light rain or drizzle, wet snow possible over hills in southeast counties, then becoming rather windy this afternoon (west to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr) with strong gusts near Donegal Bay to 100 km/hr. Intervals of rain or wintry showers likely in the north, more isolated in the south from this small-scale disturbance. Highs 4 to 7 C.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers ending, clearing, cold. Lows -3 to +1 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, cool, but with light winds feeling more pleasant by mid-day and afternoon, highs 7 to 9 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will bring a mild and generally dry regime with light rain confined to west and north where it will be more frequent on Tuesday, Wednesday morning, and again Friday. Even there, amounts will be rather slight (2 to 5 mm). Highs each day 10 to 13 C in the west and 7 to 10 C east. Nights will be reasonably mild with light frost possible in parts of the inland east and southeast.

OUTLOOK ... A more active Atlantic pattern will develop towards weekend of 16th-17th and more frequent rain and the return of stronger winds will be the result. Highs will continue to be around 10 C. A colder turn seems inevitable before we get entirely clear of the winter, but timing it is very uncertain.

My local weather remains very cold with sunshine on Saturday, and a high near -6 C, currently -12 C under clear skies.

M.T. Cranium · 11-02-2019 8:11am

Monday, 11 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy with light winds, highs 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals south and east, overcast west and north with occasional light rain. Lows 5 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain (2-5 mm) mostly in west, central, northern counties. Mild, highs near 11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some hazy sunshine at times, mild. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, very mild, moderate southerly winds. Lows 3 to 6 C, highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times, mild. Highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder from Saturday to Monday 18th, frequent rain and moderate southwest winds, highs 8 to 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Milder again later next week, highs back into low teens.

My local weather started out clear and very cold (-12 C at sunrise with -20 C a little higher up in the region), then became overcast with a high of about -5 C. There was heavy snow to our south and southwest including 5-15 cm in Vancouver and parts of Washington state. If you follow golf, you may have seen that there was hail stopping play at Pebble Beach in coastal California (cold weather hail rather than severe storm hail). This is believed to be the second time this has happened in over seventy years of the event. Somewhat milder weather continues across eastern North America but heavy snow is expected ahead of warm fronts in the inland northeast, sleet turning to rain for coastal cities later today.

M.T. Cranium · 12-02-2019 8:02am

Tuesday, 12 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although some brighter intervals likely for eastern counties, outbreaks of light rain (2-5 mm) more persistent in west, central, northern counties. Mild, highs near 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing, southerly breezes will keep it mild at 4 to 7 C (possibly a bit higher near south and west coasts).

WEDNESDAY ... Some hazy sunshine at times, mild. Lows 4 to 7 C and highs 11 to 13 C. Moderate southerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, very mild, moderate southerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr. Lows 3 to 6 C, highs 11 to 13 C. Patchy light rain in west by late in the day.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times, mild. Highs near 12 C. Some clearing and turning colder by evening and overnight. Saturday morning lows around -1 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain, moderate southwest winds, a bit cooler than recent days, highs 7 to 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Somewhat colder Sunday and Monday, frequent rain and moderate southwest winds, highs 8 to 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Blustery with frequent showers and near normal temperatures with a slightly colder theme later in the month.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy to overcast with a bit of light snow during the early morning hours but dry since then, still very cold at -5 C for our maximum. We are now into day eight of near-record cold here, lake not yet frozen (it has not frozen since 1979) so that's the big weather story for my little corner of the world. Heavy snow again near the coast in the larger urban areas such as Vancouver, Victoria BC and Seattle towards Portland WA. Some of that may spread back north to give us a few centimetres later on today. Bands of rain, sleet and snow (from coast to interior mountains) for the eastern U.S. and lower Great Lakes region.

M.T. Cranium · 13-02-2019 8:33am

Wednesday, 13 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times, mild with highs 11 to 13 C. Moderate southerly breezes 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, breezy, mild. Lows 3 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, very mild, moderate southerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr with highs 11 to 13 C. Patchy light rain in west by late in the day.

FRIDAY ... Rain at times, mild. Highs 12 to 14 C. Some clearing and turning a bit fresher by evening and overnight. Saturday morning lows around 2 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain, moderate southwest winds, a bit cooler than recent days, highs 8 to 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Occasional rain, moderate south to southwest winds, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued rather mild but with more frequent rain and stronger winds at times. There are indications that the last week of the month may be colder, although not severely cold (or snowy on current evidence) like last year.

My local weather was snowy to say the least, we had a total of 30 cms of snow and it hasn't quite stopped yet. It was a very light density snow that probably had about 10 mm liquid equivalent, and was quite easy to move. The high temperature reached -4 C. Heavy snow or sleet are moving through many parts of the inland northeast U.S. and Great Lakes regions, with milder rainy conditions in the larger coastal cities. A warm sector near Washington DC has temperatures as high as 15 C but this won't reach New York or Boston which will stay just above freezing in fog and rain. About 30 cms of snow will fall in areas like Vermont, southern Quebec and northern New Hampshire into Maine.

M.T. Cranium · 14-02-2019 8:11am

Thursday, 14 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Hazy with some sunny intervals, more cloud likely in western counties where a few light showers are possible, moderate south to southwest winds at times. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, occasional light rain, lows 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Occasional light rain (3-7 mm possible), highs near 13 C. Moderate southwest winds at times.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of rain during the morning with some clearing later, temperatures steady near 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Occasional rain, turning slightly colder by afternoon and evening, temperatures falling to around 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... Rather cool on Monday and Tuesday with showers and highs near 7 C. Then it seems likely to become milder again for a few days. Highs will return to the 11-14 C range then.

My local weather was mostly sunny as we cleared away the snow from the previous day, highs near -3 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-02-2019 8:28am

Friday, 15 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Misty over parts of north and west this morning, eventually some light rain will develop there, 2 to 5 mm, highs near 12 C. South and east should remain largely dry with partly cloudy skies, some sunny intervals, and very mild, highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Drizzle and fog patches, mild, lows 7 to 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Occasional rain, becoming more persistent by afternoon, spreading gradually eastward, highs near 11 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain tapering to showers, some partly cloudy breaks by afternoon, a bit cooler at 9 C. Becoming rather windy by late afternoon and evening, strong southwest gusts in Connacht and west Ulster, 60 to 100 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Breezy to windy, cool, passing showers, some with hail and thunder. Highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, outbreaks of light rain, highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... A strong southerly flow will develop, with frequent rain likely, and temperatures steady in the 8 to 11 C range. Although it will be relatively mild, the air mass will be mixing some colder air from central Europe with the Atlantic flow, temperatures in Britain where not as wet will also be several degrees lower in southeast winds.

My local weather continued dry and cold with some sunny breaks and highs near -3 C. Snow is moving in overnight and we're expecting about 15 cms today and Saturday. Further east, it's a rather inactive weather pattern for eastern North America with weak systems bringing light snowfalls or sleet to some areas.

M.T. Cranium · 16-02-2019 8:25am

Saturday, 16 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Some bright spells this morning, then overcast with rain spreading northeast across the country by afternoon or at the latest, early evening. Mild with southerly winds 40 to 70 km/hr, highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain heavy at times, 10-20 mm likely. Lows around 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain becoming showery with some chance of thunder and hail, then partial clearing, scattered showers following as winds veer more to southwest, temperatures steady in the 7 to 9 C range. Rather windy by evening in the north, gusts to 80 km/hr near exposed coasts around Donegal Bay.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, passing showers, some with hail, rather cool with temperatures steady around 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with rain, 10-15 mm likely, winds south to southwest 70-100 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mild especially in western counties where it may often exceed 13 C, closer to 10 C in east but brighter at times there. Intervals of rain mid-week but somewhat drier trend after that.

My local weather was overcast with light snow and highs reaching -1 C. We had about 4 or 5 cms over the day and expect another similar amount today.

M.T. Cranium · 17-02-2019 8:04am

Sunday, 17 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain, with a few brief thunderstorms possible, in blustery southerly winds this morning. Some clearing mid-day then further showers developing. Highs near 11 C. About 10-15 mm rain likely.

TONIGHT ... Outbreaks of light rain with some clear intervals, colder, lows near 5 C. Rather windy with some stronger gusts in northwest counties, southwest 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Showers, cool, moderate southwest winds continuing, highs near 9 C.

TUESDAY ... Windy with rain (10-15 mm likely), highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Spring-like weather will follow with highs 14 to 16 C possible, 12 C near some coasts. This may continue for several days and as higher pressure edges closer, the main change will be cooler nights as the days will remain quite mild. Any cooling influence of this high pressure will be confined to parts of Britain.

My local weather continues wintry, although the severe cold has given way to temperatures close to freezing. A little more snow fell during the morning, perhaps 2 cm, and we now have a cover of about 20 to 25 cms.

M.T. Cranium · 18-02-2019 8:03am

Monday, 18 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Frequent showers in western counties, 10-15 mm rain expected. Occasional showers further east, 5-10 mm likely there. Cooler than recent days with highs around 8 to 10 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing for eastern counties, cold for the first part of the night then overcast with rising temperatures. Cloudy from late evening in west, some rain by morning. Lows 1 to 4 C, coldest in east.

TUESDAY ... Rather windy with rain developing, foggy at times, temperatures slowly rising to about 8 to 10 C by late in the day. About 10 to 15 mm rain likely. Winds southerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

WEDNESDAY ... Milder again with some light rain or drizzle at times, then partly cloudy, highs reaching 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very mild from Thursday to about Sunday, highs 13 to 16 C for many parts of the country, 11 to 13 C in some coastal regions exposed to south or southeast winds. Rather windy at times, especially towards Atlantic coasts, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr. Some rain will brush outer west coast but it may remain dry for most other areas during this mild spell. Eventually, temperatures will return to more average late February values towards the end of the month.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a bit of sunshine at times, and the high was about -1 C. After such a long cold spell this felt rather mild but it's still a few degrees below average for here.

note: full moon 3:54 p.m. Tuesday 19th February.

M.T. Cranium · 19-02-2019 8:19am

Tuesday, 19 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will spread gradually east after some cloudy but dry weather this morning in the east. Temperatures rather cool until late afternoon or evening, slowly rising to about 9 C. Rainfall 10-15 mm expected. Winds southerly 50 to 80 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Misty, rain ending, mild with fog patches, low 8 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more light showers but not much further accumulation, highs 11 to 13 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny spells, very mild. Highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain at times near west coast, very mild, highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Staying mild, with occasional light rain mostly confined to west on Saturday, several more dry and mild days to follow with at least some sunshine. Highs generally 13 to 16 C.

A colder spell is likely just around the end of the month into the first week to ten days of March. Temperatures may fall gradually to levels slightly below average at times.

My local weather on Monday was cloudy with a few brighter intervals, dry, and cold with highs only about -3 C. Eastern and central regions of the continent are expecting messy mixed precipitation turning to rain for most but possibly starting out with sleet or snow.

M.T. Cranium · 20-02-2019 8:10am

Wednesday, 20 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Variable cloud, a few more light showers but not much further accumulation, highs 11 to 13 C. Moderate southerly breezes. Some fog or mist on higher ground should slowly clear away after mid-day.

TONIGHT ... Some clearing but extensive low cloud or mist, mild with lows 4 to 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny spells, very mild. Highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, some rain at times near west coast, spreading further inland for part of the day, 5 mm of rain on average central and western counties, but may stay largely dry in east; very mild, lows 5 to 9 C and highs near 15 C. Moderate southerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr with some higher gusts near exposed coasts.

SATURDAY ... Overcast with some light rain, mild, highs near 14 C. Moderate southerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, very mild. Moderate southerly winds continuing. Highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The mild air mass will gradually fill up with lower level cloud and moisture and temperatures will slowly fall back to more average values by early March. There will be a trend towards unsettled and then windy weather with more variation in temperatures.

My local weather on Tuesday was overcast with a few glimpses of sun (and full moon after dark) through broken cloud layers. Snow came and went during the morning, 2 cms was the result. Staying quite cold here with highs still a bit below freezing. Patches of ice are beginning to appear in the local deep mountain lake which has not totally frozen over in the past forty years (so I'm told). Not sure if we will get a shore to shore ice cover or just more floating ice which I once saw here in 1996 but seems to be unusual too. This seems to be about the only region getting much cold weather in recent weeks but it extends well down to the south even into northwestern Mexico. There's a large area of sleet in east-central states heading northeast with some of it turning to snow overnight around Washington and Baltimore. This will then turn to rain, and the same sequence will occur all the way up to Boston. Heavy wet snow will fall inland. There has been enough snow this winter to create roof collapses in regions around Montreal, yet Boston is having an almost snow-free winter.

M.T. Cranium · 21-02-2019 8:36am

Thursday, 21 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Partly cloudy and very mild, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr, some coastal flooding possible on south and east coasts near high tide. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Patchy drizzle or light rain mostly near west coast, mild, lows 8 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, very mild, highs 13 to 15 C.

SATURDAY ... Some rain at times, 5 to 10 mm likely but rather showery and with some dry intervals following, highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY to about THURSDAY 28th will remain very mild and less windy too, so a real taste of spring in contrast to the weather on the same dates last year (heavy snow and very cold 28th and 1st March of 2018 in many places). Highs around 15 or even 16 C. Some sunshine each day and in some places it may be generous amounts, but low cloud may form near south coast and spread some distance inland at times.

OUTLOOK is for this mild spell to break down in stages and eventually much colder weather seems likely by about the second week of March.

My local weather stayed dry and rather cold again with highs near -2 C. Nasty mixtures of snow and sleet for many in the eastern half of North America, but milder eventually and becoming quite warm by this coming weekend there. Very cold in the western U.S., snow has been falling across southern Utah and northern Arizona, even at lower elevations in some cases. Phoenix has been struggling to get much past 10 for their highs and normally it's in the low 20s. No snow in southern Arizona but chilly rain showers with hail mixing in.

M.T. Cranium · 22-02-2019 8:22am

Friday, 22 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY... Continued rather windy and very mild with mostly cloudy skies and some patchy drizzle, although some brighter intervals, those more frequent in eastern counties. Winds south-southeast 50 to 80 km/hr at times. Highs 13 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, mild, some low cloud, fog and drizzle or light rain spreading into west. Lows near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of light rain, 5 to 10 mm likely, blustery south winds at times, partial clearing later from west to east. Highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 14 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY may be the warmest days of this rather exceptional spell and winds will not be as strong by then either, so with any sunshine these should be good days to get out there and enjoy or take advantage if you have outdoor work to do. Highs 14 to 16 C. Nights may not be quite as mild due to the less windy conditions and some clear intervals. In fact, at the moment that's the case over in eastern and southern England and in most of France, and overnight lows there have dropped to near -1 C in some parts, but it warms up quickly after sunrise and that's coming early enough now so that these colder night temperatures won't be prolonged into the daytime hours as might have been the case in this kind of pattern in December or January.

OUTLOOK beyond that is a very slow decline back to more average conditions but it may not change much by Thursday of next week, the larger changes are coming around 2-4 of March with strong westerly winds and temperatures closer to 8 C, with some passing showers. This current warmth does not rule out a return to wintry weather -- I noted that in February 1933 when there was quite a snowstorm in late February, there was a mild spell for about a week in early February that month. And nature likes to balance its books (occasionally).

My local weather then should have me very optimistic about warmth this spring because it has been quite cold here for three weeks now, Thursday was partly cloudy with a high of -1 C. The weather down south where people from around here go to escape winter was, umm, wintry, Las Vegas had snow, heavy snow fell across northern Arizona and a cold rain fell in Phoenix and Los Angeles with snow on nearby hills. Even into northwest Mexico the temperatures were well below seasonal averages by 10-15 degrees.

M.T. Cranium · 23-02-2019 8:10am

Saturday, 23 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Rain will spread gradually east but amounts may be rather light, 5 to 8 mm appears possible in some parts. The rain will tend to fragment to showers then die out later this morning in the west, by mid to late afternoon further east after a dry interval this morning there. Highs about 12 to 14 C, blustery south winds 50 to 80 km/hr at times.

TONIGHT ... Gradual clearing to partly cloudy skies, but some further cloudy intervals likely near south coast. Winds dropping to more moderate levels (40 to 60 km/hr in some exposed locations). Mild with lows 5 to 9 C.

SUNDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, very mild, highs near 15 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY are likely to bring sunny skies, clear nights, somewhat colder at night as a result but very mild by day, in the range of 14 to 17 C. Morning lows about 1 to 4 C but rapid warming after sunrise. Not as windy as the first part of this mild spell so it's going to feel even warmer.

OUTLOOK ... The very mild weather will try to hang on but it loses upper support first, then gets undercut by cooler surface air moving in from the central Atlantic. Expect highs to fall off one or two degrees per day with added cloudiness to about Saturday 2nd of March by which time highs will be closer to 10 C. Then rain enters the picture more frequently and highs will fluctuate between 8 and 11 C for about a week before perhaps dropping further in some briefly cold weather around the 10th to 15th of March. It does not look quite cold enough for wintry precipitation except perhaps on hills at that point, probably around 7 C at sea level.

My local weather featured light snow all day, little actual accumulation, and temperatures around -1 C. A strong storm formed over New Mexico earlier Friday and will bring blizzard conditions to the north-central plains states and upper Great Lakes, but a mild spell for the weekend south of that track, highs reaching 12 to 15 C in the large cities of the northeast and mid-Atlantic states, and 20-25 further south, with a risk of severe storms in states from Ohio to Alabama.

M.T. Cranium · 24-02-2019 7:55am

Sunday, 24 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals mostly in eastern counties by mid-day and afternoon. Fog, mist and some patchy drizzle near some outer coasts in south and west. Moderate southerly winds easing gradually. Highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals in east, cool, lows 1 to 4 C. Remaining mostly cloudy further west, mild, lows 7 to 10 C.

MONDAY ... Morning fog or mist, with some clearing in west, sunny intervals through the day further east, very mild, winds light to moderate southeasterly. Highs 14
to 17 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, very mild. Some patchy drizzle near northwest coasts at times. Lows 1-4 C in east, 5 to 8 C west. Highs 13 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Overcast, mild, some light rain at times in west. Lows 4 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain, temperatures returning to more seasonable values by Friday and Saturday. The pattern will stay fairly bland but with occasional stronger winds near northwest coasts. Temperatures will oscillate on either side of average which is around 10 degrees by day, 2 to 5 C at night.

My local weather was partly to mostly cloudy and still rather cold at -1 C. A severe snowstorm has developed in the north central U.S. heading for Lake Superior and northern Ontario. Milder air briefly invaded the eastern seaboard and will exit later today to be replaced by cold and windy but clearing weather for the first part of the week.

M.T. Cranium · 25-02-2019 8:45am

Monday, 25 February, 2019

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Morning fog or mist, with some clearing in west, sunny intervals through the day further east, very mild, winds light to moderate southeasterly. Highs generally 14 to 17 C, could be held to 10-12 C near south coast by low cloud and sea fog.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals eastern counties, lows 1 to 4 C. Overcast further west, milder there with lows 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, very mild. Some patchy drizzle near northwest coasts at times. Highs 13 to 16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild. Lows 2 to 6 C and highs 12 to 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Overcast, mild, some light rain at times in west. Lows 4 to 8 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Rain, 5 to 10 mm likely, southerly winds 50 to 70 km/hr, highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Windy at times, rather cold compared to this coming week, highs 7 to 9 C, occasional rain or showers in gusty southwest winds, with some strong gusts possible by Sunday in northwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Possibly quite windy at times, European model advertises a deep low pressure area well off the northwest coasts but strong enough to bring wind gusts over 100 km/hr to coastal regions, by mid-week 4-8 March. Highs around 7 to 10 C in that interval. Other guidance not quite as windy but certainly unsettled, and generally temperatures remain in the near normal range after this week's warm spell concludes.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and just a little milder at 1 C, not having much impact on our largely frozen snow cover of about 15 to 20 cms (it is semi-frozen but not iced over). The Great Lakes storm proved to be very intense with heavy snow followed by wind gusts to over 120 km/hr, a state of emergency exists in parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, and regions of southern Ontario and western New York may be added soon as strong winds and heavy squalls blow through. This much colder air will arrive on the east coast in a modified form and while windy, it won't be anything nearly as severe as the conditions around the Great Lakes. At least they will have almost a week before the next snowfall in areas that now have (no kidding here) six feet of snow on the ground in the upper peninsula of Michigan.

Well, last year at this time, we were tracking the potential for severe snowfalls in Ireland that arrived on 28th February; this year it's record mild temperatures. In 2020, will it be perhaps heavy rainfalls?

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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