WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

ninebeanrows · 12-02-2012 5:45pm #1

Well the winter is turning out be incredibly mild.

I will open up this thread to replaced the ' Cold Reload Thread ' as any reload is not related to the original reason for the thread!

Mildish northwesterlies this week but then we see the PV move further east towards Scandinavia and the chance of a cold northwesterly and perhaps northeasterly for a time next weekend. In fact some charts show potential for a snow event towards next weekend as a small low moves across the south of Ireland drawing back some Arctic air to the north.

I am still hopeful we will get a snow event in the next 3-4 weeks.

ZX7R · 12-02-2012 7:16pm

I hope we get snow soon:) before second week in march, as my wife is expecting our first borne and its twins and are due the end of march dont want to have to drive in snow:D:D

pauldry · 12-02-2012 10:25pm

we had twins last july and got a really sunny day for it.

Its crazy but beautiful. good luck with it.

as for snow i cant see it.

i hope im wrong.

davidsr20 · 12-02-2012 11:31pm

Mmm this tread seems very quiet,let's just hope for a reload in cold even for a short spell

mike65 · 13-02-2012 12:08am

Not a chance.

ninebeanrows · 13-02-2012 12:15am

mike65 wrote: »

Not a chance.

I don't know GFS still showing a cool down.

A cold shot from the northwest, then a low to swing through under the weak ridge.

Consistent enough output.

nilhg · 13-02-2012 12:44am

The GFS Operational and control runs for that time frame are complete cold outliers though WC, and we know the record of them verifying this winter.

Those blue and green line go up and down faster than a *****'s knickers.

Birdnuts · 13-02-2012 12:51am

Another very poor ECM run tonight:( - the winter has really been astonishing in its complete lack of any seasonal weather. I can remember some stinkers in my time having lived through the 90's and most of the last decade, but this one really takes the biscuit!!

Wild Bill · 13-02-2012 2:11am

Birdnuts wrote: »

Another very poor ECM run tonight:( - the winter has really been astonishing in its complete lack of any seasonal weather. I can remember some stinkers in my time having lived through the 90's and most of the last decade, but this one really takes the biscuit!!

Yup; three air frosts this "winter" (1st, 2nd and 3rd February) here in mehish Sandyford. (there was also one back in mid-November)

That is an all time record (going back nearly 40 years) for me :cool:

Wild Bill · 13-02-2012 2:20am

Wild Bill wrote: »

That is an all time record (going back nearly 40 years) for me :cool:

Of course, back in the day, we weren't tormented by modellers relentlessly predicting imminent "cold reloads"!

(I'd have thought you'd have to have discharged something in the first place to talk about "reloading"!)

So, this is very much an even milder version of Winter 73/74 without the Storms. (I'm talking East Coast - the "Dublin Storm" of 2012 was a complete miss)

Let's hope for a sunny dry spring and hot sunny summer

Sponge Bob · 13-02-2012 2:30am

I think 1988/1989 may have beaten 1973/1974 Bill. It did Nationally anyway.

Onwards to Cold! :cool:

up for anything · 13-02-2012 8:54am

I'd like to thank all the Gods who ensured that my quarter tank of oil bought back in the beginning of October barely has a dent in it and that it will stay that way till next October. Begone, nasty snowminators!!

weisses · 13-02-2012 9:44am

12 - 14 degrees nest week ???? ... Bring it on

DarkJager · 13-02-2012 9:57am

I think anyone still hoping for snow is not in the real world. Not a chance of it now, winter is well and truly done.

Nabber · 13-02-2012 10:05am

DarkJager wrote: »

I think anyone still hoping for snow is not in the real world. Not a chance of it now, winter is well and truly done.

That's quite the statement :rolleyes:

There is always the possiblity of snow. March has seen it's share of snow. Can't see it happening. But when it comes to weather I can't see beyond my nose. So who knows:pac:

ninebeanrows · 13-02-2012 12:08pm

Still looks like a bit of a blast next week.

Although things are looking like returning milder and unsettled from February 22nd onwards, although could change.

But likely we will get 2-3 days of cold weather with the prospect of some widespread wintry showers over next weekend.

Hooter23 · 13-02-2012 12:50pm

I like cold/snowy weather but now that its mid febuary Id prefer mild weather because when we get snow at this time of year even when its still freezing the snow melts as soon as the sun comes out:mad:
I dont want snow now its too late:mad: lol :pac:

Musicman2000 · 13-02-2012 4:15pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

I like cold/snowy weather but now that its mid febuary Id prefer mild weather because when we get snow at this time of year even when its still freezing the snow melts as soon as the sun comes out:mad:
I dont want snow now its too late:mad: lol :pac:

Really depends how deep the cold is, few silly statements on here saying winter is finished, there is a slight chance it could bite back in March. After March fair enough time to call it a day.

screamer · 13-02-2012 4:18pm

few silly statements on here saying winter is finished

considering Winter never started, you're correct. Otherwise, I agree, Winter has left the building for 2011.... let's move on, nothing to see here.

Harps · 13-02-2012 6:41pm

I think that 'Winter is over' comment has been posted at least once every day since late November. Yes its been a pathetic Winter from an interesting weather point of view but its extremely tiresome seeing it posted so often

Looking like a high ground event again to me at the weekend, maybe a few snow showers to lower levels but it probably won't lie and considering it'll all be gone by Monday I'm not too interested, beats the current boredom though so at least its a bit of weather to look at

screamer · 13-02-2012 6:46pm

It's not as tiresome as the "winter's coming" predictions that are posted multiple times every day, with no disrespect to anyone because I have enjoyed reading the predictions and, we've all been looking and hoping but now, it really is time to just accept that winter's over, and spring is here.

srocliffe · 13-02-2012 7:07pm

screamer wrote: »

It's not as tiresome as the "winter's coming" predictions that are posted multiple times every day, with no disrespect to anyone because I have enjoyed reading the predictions and, we've all been looking and hoping but now, it really is time to just accept that winter's over, and spring is here.

If it was April I might agree, but it is not even mid February yet.

I know they may not be intended this way (at least not by everybody who does it) but these "Winter is over" posts just come across as trolling to me.

screamer · 13-02-2012 7:11pm

Well, no definately not intended that way. I shall re-phrase, in my mind, winter is over, I will keep an eye on the daily forecasts here on boards anyways, as I definately appreciate the good work done by so many.

Sponge Bob · 13-02-2012 7:17pm

I'd never say winter is over until the end of March. Even then I could get caught by an early April blizzard ( has happened in Ireland but not in living memory) or a sharp frost like the one that murdered my Petunias in the late 1990s.

Even more ironically we could yet have a record breaking winter in terms of high temperatures and still have blizzards and frosts during Climatological Spring after the first of March. That thankfully means everyone is absolutely correct.

Now can we just go back to speculating on how far down the mountain the wintry excursion will come this weekend.

Hooter23 · 13-02-2012 7:58pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Really depends how deep the cold is, few silly statements on here saying winter is finished, there is a slight chance it could bite back in March. After March fair enough time to call it a day.

Winter is definately not over I remember many years when we got more snow in the months of febuary and march even snow in april happened a couple of times in the last few years I think.
I just prefer to get it in december/january because it lasts longer on the ground:)

Harps · 13-02-2012 7:59pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I'd never say winter is over until the end of March. Even then I could get caught by an early April blizzard ( has happened in Ireland but not in living memory) or a sharp frost like the one that murdered my Petunias in the late 1990s.

Even more ironically we could yet have a record breaking winter in terms of high temperatures and still have blizzards and frosts during Climatological Spring after the first of March. That thankfully means everyone is absolutely correct.

Now can we just go back to speculating on how far down the mountain the wintry excursion will come this weekend.

Just two years ago we had a blizzard on the last day of March, over 7 foot of snow in places. Of course there might be nothing at all this year but there's still over a month of potential wintry weather ahead so its annoying to see it constantly written off

While I'm posting, here's the latest ECMWF...

dfx- · 13-02-2012 8:22pm

I remember 2006 in the canteen of the State Lab in Kildare watching a blizzard outside..that never settled though, but was fierce for a few hours.

And I started there in the first week of April, so...

K_1 · 13-02-2012 8:29pm

Harps wrote: »

Just two years ago we had a blizzard on the last day of March, over 7 foot of snow in places. Of course there might be nothing at all this year but there's still over a month of potential wintry weather ahead so its annoying to see it constantly written off

Serious snow in places that time, I remember going up to the hills near me on 1st April and there were 4-6 foot drifts, despite much of it having melted.

Pictures from Cavan:

Wicklow:

pauldry · 13-02-2012 9:29pm

wow cool pictures.

Winter never ends in Ireland.

Even last June on the bank holiday weekend it was 7c in Sligo on the Sunday...max.

There was hail too in the showers.

I can see it now.

March Blizzard catches Ireland unawares after one of the mildest Winters on record.
source Daily Mail

compsys · 13-02-2012 9:47pm

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the people who keeping saying: 'winter is over and spring is here' etc. etc. and that 'it's too late for snow' are deluded.

Yes, it may not snow again this winter. In fact, it may not snow again until 2016 for all we know! But that's not because it's too late in the year for it to snow.

Statistically, February is the snowiest month in Ireland and the UK, and a quick look at Met Eireann's website will also show that for many locations in Ireland it's also the coldest month of the year! So to say it's too late in the winter to snow in February is ridiculous.

If we lived in Spain or Greece where they've a continental climate and temperatures can rapidly increase once March sets in (though not always) you could argue that it's too late for snow. But in Ireland the average temperature in early March is actually colder than it is in late November. Yet you'd never hear people say it's too warm to snow in November.

Again, I'm not saying it will snow this month, but you certainly can't rule it out either. As many people have said before, there's plenty of examples of snow events in March and even April. And for the people who say snow in March isn't good enough because it melts too quickly - you're in the wrong country if you're expecting a deep freeze every year!

There. Rant over.

Wild Bill · 13-02-2012 9:59pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I think 1988/1989 may have beaten 1973/1974 Bill.

Maybe...but I was a young snowbunny (like the kids hereon) in 73/74 - the disappointment still lingers in the memory......

By 1988 I realised it was Ireland I lived in - not Vermont. :cool:

Wild Bill · 13-02-2012 10:13pm

K_1 wrote: »

Pictures from Cavan:

These are some of the best snow pics I've seen - reminds me of that Japanese "snow alley" one.

darkman2 · 15-02-2012 8:17am

Hi all,

On Saturday morning a cold front will sweep south eastward introducing much colder northwesterly winds. There will be rain with backedge snow for a time and then showers will be fairly widespread through the day. Heavy snow showers will occur in the west and north with accumulations likely there. Snow showers elsewhere will be less frequent. Feeling bitter. A very cold day with temperatures no better then 3 - 5c generally. Colder where showers are frequent and snow tends to settle. A very cold night will follow with widespread ice and frost.

Speak Now · 15-02-2012 9:27am

Darkman Vs Met Eireann

"During Friday night or Saturday morning the rain will become heavy for a time and will clear Southeastwards by Saturday afternoon.
Sunny spells and showers will follow, most of the showers in the north and northwest. Fresh northwesterly winds will set in with this clearance and it will turn colder.
For Saturday night, showers of rain or hail will persist in the north and northwest with some wintry fall on hills. Over the rest of the country it will be mainly dry but very cold and frosty with some icy patches"

M.T forecast similar to Met Eireann as well.

Victor Meldrew · 15-02-2012 9:31am

Do you see this as a one day wonder or do you see anything "bedding in" for the weekend.

Do you see this as a case of "get your camera ready for a quick snap before it melts" as per Dec 17th this year or "transport hell" snow?

Fair play to you for putting your colours to the mast / getting off the fence.

Speak Now · 15-02-2012 9:41am

00z GFS

00z ECM

Toppler i guess, cold and dry on Sunday with milder south westerlies for Monday.

Speak Now · 15-02-2012 9:45am

After all the blocking uncertainty it seems the ensembles have finally got a better grip on things. All most all members in agreement out to T144 on latest GFS. Operational pretty much following the mean. The dip in the graph really shows up the northern toppler.

MrFrisp · 15-02-2012 10:58am

Latest update from M.E. Looks like it won't last very long..

3 Day Outlook
Thursday night will be mild and cloudy with fresh west to southwest winds. Outbreaks of rain will affect Ulster, Connacht and West Munster but other areas will be dry apart from a little drizzle. Gradually during Friday the rain will sink Southwards to remaining areas and it will stay rather mild and windy. During Friday night or Saturday morning the rain will become heavy for a time and will clear Southeastwards by Saturday afternoon. Sunny spells and showers will follow, most of the showers in the north and northwest. Fresh northwesterly winds will set in with this clearance and it will turn colder. For Saturday night, showers of rain or hail will persist in the north and northwest with some wintry fall on hills. Over the rest of the country it will be mainly dry but very cold and frosty with some icy patches. Sunday will be a mainly dry cold day with sunny spells. It will turn frosty for a time early on Sunday night but wet and windy weather wil spread from the Atlantic overnight and it will become milder again. The early days of next week will remain unsettled with further spells of rain or showers and near normal temperatures.

.

pauldry · 15-02-2012 11:10am

Victor Meldrew wrote: »

Do you see this as a one day wonder or do you see anything "bedding in" for the weekend.

Do you see this as a case of "get your camera ready for a quick snap before it melts" as per Dec 17th this year or "transport hell" snow?

Fair play to you for putting your colours to the mast / getting off the fence.

IMO I think it will be a few hour event

Sponge Bob · 15-02-2012 11:23am

While it seems possible graupel or even snow coud fall north of a line from Sligo-Dundalk it would seem highly unlikely it will be any more than rain or sleet south of that line.

ednwireland · 15-02-2012 12:27pm

Weather forecast: Northern Ireland

Day 3 to 5

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Rain at times on Friday, then turning colder on Saturday with sunny spells and blustery showers. Cold overnight on Saturday, but mainly dry and sunny on Sunday, although rain later.

uk met office

John mac · 15-02-2012 12:46pm

Saturday - Snow showers

I Know you are right. (didn't say what saturday,,

:D:D)

Redsunset · 15-02-2012 4:11pm

Please try to keep further Chat posts about snowfall potential the weekend. I've deleted a couple of needless ones.

While I'm not jumping for joy myself at the risk it's still something to monitor because there could actually be some accumulations on higher ground the further north one goes come Saturday night. Not set in stone but consider it a watch as colder air digs in behind the front. As for low lying areas I wouldn't rule out a wintry mix. Further model guidance will beef up the forecast accuracy as we get nearer the time.

davidsr20 · 15-02-2012 4:17pm

When are we talking for this breef cold spell , sat/sun?

Redsunset · 15-02-2012 4:22pm

Saturday into Sunday with showers then dying out.

All depends how quick the cold can catch up with the front during Saturday. Back edge wintriness a possibility.

sunbabe08 · 15-02-2012 4:43pm

never saw that snow down in cork, i would remember it so.

Redsunset · 15-02-2012 4:49pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

never saw that snow down in cork, i would remember it so.

Unfortunately it looks like your not going to see a whole lot for a while. After this brief glancing cold at the weekend which shouldn't affect you,the signs are not good for a while. Embrace the Atlantic.

sunbabe08 · 15-02-2012 4:53pm

redsunset wrote: »

Unfortunately it looks like your not going to see a whole lot for a while. After this brief glancing cold at the weekend which shouldn't affect you,the signs are not good for a while. Embrace the Atlantic.

embraced it about 2 weeks ago:(

Sponge Bob · 15-02-2012 4:54pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

embraced it about 2 weeks ago:(

If you embrace a weekend in Donegal you might be in luck...cheaper than flying to Tromso for a fix Sunbabe. You may have to bring boots too...but there should be some pickings.

Sponge Bob · 15-02-2012 7:12pm

The Eagle Says "Rain" on Saturday.....on Radio 1 Just Before 6

Redsunset · 15-02-2012 7:22pm

Yes rain for most but I think possible snow for higher ground towards the north as front clears.

WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

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