Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

rekluse · 19-10-2019 10:46am

sydthebeat wrote: »

The best value I see is England -8.

I think they could double that spread.

Cheers syd you were spot on and had a few quid down !

Loafing Oaf · 19-10-2019 11:56am

Del.Monte wrote: »

A few wild ones to start the weekend.

Ireland to be nilled @ 31/1

Could well land this:(

Del.Monte · 19-10-2019 10:00pm

Thanks to some live betting I'm a staggering .20cents up on where I started the weekend. NZ more than 36.5 points taken towards the last quarter of the match brought things back to parity.

Tomorrow

Wales -6 @ 10/11 - (a comment by a poster on Planet Rugby decided this for me - 'France are absolute directionless garbage. They will get hammered on Sunday and Wales will deservedly move on to the semi finals. End of.'

France over (+8.5) in 1st half @ 8/11

Wales over (+12.5) in 1st half @ Evens

Japan to win @ 9/2

Japan over (+8.5) in 1st half @ 5/6

sydthebeat · 19-10-2019 10:15pm

Very tempted at this stage to lump on NZ -7.... Though weather could be a factor so I'll wait closer to the day.

sydthebeat · 22-10-2019 5:40pm

Leinster - 23 away to zebre seems about 10 points too narrow to me..

Long range forecast is sunny and pleasant.

sydthebeat · 23-10-2019 3:32pm

pro14 best for this weekend

leinster -23 @evens
treviso -18 @evens

sydthebeat · 25-10-2019 1:35pm

hummmm i cant understand the money following zebre in the betting?

leinster gone from -23 to -17 after teams named.
fair enough zebre have 6 returning from the RWC squad, but 2 of those are playing out of their regular positions.

but they have shipped 54, 52, 50, in their three game already pretty mid table teams in edinburgh, scarlets and dragons.

Leinster havent found scoring too difficult... and thats a very decent and mobile forward pack we are putting out.

i think -17 is very generous to zebre but lets see....

The real mccoy 91 · 25-10-2019 2:20pm

Right I think we have 2 very live outsiders this week and imo the spreads are definitely on the high side. England are every bit as good as nz in my eyes and are in better form this year. Wales are well capable of putting it up to sa and gatland is the best coach left in the wc so they will have everything planned to a tee a bit like the Australia game.

Having a go on the 14/1 on Wales and England winning on pp and 2 bet builders for each

England -3 ht
England +4
England over 10.5 points
May anytime
12/1

England +3 ht
England +10
Over 33.5 points
Over 16.5 in second half
4/1

Wales +4 ht
Wales -3
Under 38.5 points
10/1

Wales +4 ht
Wales +6
Under 41.5 points
7/2

rekluse · 25-10-2019 5:01pm

Well that's just scuppered me I was coming on to ask about Nz -7 and SA - 8 ! Cheers for the insight tho.

The real mccoy 91 · 25-10-2019 6:38pm

rekluse wrote: »

Well that's just scuppered me I was coming on to ask about Nz -7 and SA - 8 ! Cheers for the insight tho.

If I was to stick my neck on the line for 1 bet for the weekend it would be Wales +9. Ignoring friendlies i don't know but id say you will have to do a good bit of digging to find the last time they were beat by double figures

Lucy8080 · 26-10-2019 7:03am

HT/FT

England @7/2.

Anytime Try

Watson @7/2 .

May @11/4.

sydthebeat · 26-10-2019 7:12am

NZ v eng
Both teams to score at least 1 try in each half @ 7/2

Wales v SA
Both teams to score at least 1 try in each half @ 13/2

Sneaky double @ 32/1

billybonkers · 26-10-2019 6:14pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

hummmm i cant understand the money following zebre in the betting?

leinster gone from -23 to -17 after teams named.
fair enough zebre have 6 returning from the RWC squad, but 2 of those are playing out of their regular positions.

but they have shipped 54, 52, 50, in their three game already pretty mid table teams in edinburgh, scarlets and dragons.

Leinster havent found scoring too difficult... and thats a very decent and mobile forward pack we are putting out.

i think -17 is very generous to zebre but lets see....

Leinster up 3-0 at halftime?

sydthebeat · 26-10-2019 6:18pm

billybonkers wrote: »

Leinster up 3-0 at halftime?

Yeah I'm being wiped out this weekend

In my defense the long range forecast coming into the weekend was for sunny and pleasant.... And its anything but there....

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2019 6:38pm

Anyone know if teams generally play full strength sides, or close to, for the third/fourth playoff?

billybonkers · 26-10-2019 7:15pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Anyone know if teams generally play full strength sides, or close to, for the third/fourth playoff?

New Zealand will not

Loafing Oaf · 26-10-2019 7:29pm

billybonkers wrote: »

New Zealand will not

I was thinking that. Mounga is slightly longer than Farrell to be top points scorer, even though he is only 7 points behind him. You'd think if he was guaranteed to play he would be favourite.

sydthebeat · 27-10-2019 11:59am

I am all over England -3

Del.Monte · 27-10-2019 1:25pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

I am all over England -3

Me too, fickle turncoat that I am and I have my freshly dry cleaned England shirt at the ready. It's coming home.

sydthebeat · 30-10-2019 4:44pm

Bets so far for the weekend.

england -3 @evens
under 37.5 points @ 10/11

cheetahs +5 v scarlets @ evens

Del.Monte · 31-10-2019 9:57am

So far gone with England (-5) @ Evens - I was late getting on here; and NZ and SA to both be leading at HT and FT @ 11/2.

I'll probably take SA to win @ 7/4 with an early cash out in mind.

I was going to go out and watch NZ v Wales but I can't work up any interest in this utterly pointless game.

sydthebeat · 31-10-2019 10:58am

Del.Monte wrote: »

So far gone with England (-5) @ Evens - I was late getting on here; and NZ and SA to both be leading at HT and FT @ 11/2.

I'll probably take SA to win @ 7/4 with an early cash out in mind.

I was going to go out and watch NZ v Wales but I can't work up any interest in this utterly pointless game.

agreed, i can see every possible way of that game going... so theres no value in my eyes in any wagerthere. It could be a low scoring 1 point cracker... with wales wanting to break the duck of never beating them outside of wales...

or wales could look at their team selected and think they are mainly second string so no one expects anything, and NZ could put 50 on them.

NZ are playing at least 5 players who will be leaving after RWC, with hansen going as well..... so they might be fired up to redeem themselves after the meek loss to england.

it could go anyway.

i might be tempted to go under 53.5 points.... as that welsh side will struggle to score anything not off the tee.... and even from the tee patchell can be dodgy.
with the spread being 20 points that means that the min expected score would be around something like 37 - 17. I could see NZ reaching that, but i cant see wales getting to 17.

feck it, iv just convinced myself to go under 53.5 points... ill put something small on it.

Loafing Oaf · 02-11-2019 12:49am

On De Klerk and Pollard for MOTM and Kolbe to score two or more tries

Lucy8080 · 02-11-2019 2:44am

-3 England @evens, missed that, -5 is gone too. I like to get odds when betting.

So, It seems S.A. have some enhanced odds compared to England..

Anytime try-

Kolbe -@7/2

Le Roux-@ 15/2.

02-11-2019 8:11am

Mapimpi FTS @11/1

de Klerk MOTM @11/1

Nibble on Mapimpi MOTM @50/1

Edit: Just spotted de Klerk to score a try boost on Betfair. 7/1 to 10/1. I'll have a go.

sydthebeat · 02-11-2019 8:53am

A couple more on the final.

De klerk anytime @9/1

Pollard to score over 9.5 points @ 11/10

Loafing Oaf · 02-11-2019 11:57am

How soon will we know MOTM? Presume it's an official tournament thing rather than by ITV or whatever...

Leinstertomas · 02-11-2019 12:06pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How soon will we know MOTM? Presume it's an official tournament thing rather than by ITV or whatever...

It was Duane Vermeulen

Loafing Oaf · 02-11-2019 12:09pm

Leinstertomas wrote: »

It was Duane Vermeulen

thanks:(

sydthebeat · 02-11-2019 12:10pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

A couple more on the final.

De klerk anytime @9/1

Pollard to score over 9.5 points @ 11/10

Lost my shirt on England.

A little back on pollard.

Del.Monte · 02-11-2019 1:09pm

After the whole RWC I'm a few (very) Euros ahead. I saw today's result coming but still opted for England instead of a nice 9/4 on the Boks.

My unusual, for me, bet on NZ and SA to be leading at HT and FT in each game saved my bacon.

Leinstertomas · 02-11-2019 2:34pm

Over 4 tries in Scarlets V Cheetahs @15/8 and over 5 @15/4 looks good value to me

thomond2006 · 05-11-2019 2:00pm

So...Munster to win their ERCC pool is 5/1.

Leinstertomas · 15-11-2019 12:52pm

Think Munster will easily cover -10 spread

razorblunt · 15-11-2019 3:05pm

I know Agen are second bottom in Top 14, how bad is that squad they announced for the Edinburgh game?

13/5 at home to a poor enough Edinburgh lineup.

thomond2006 · 15-11-2019 3:31pm

razorblunt wrote: »

I know Agen are second bottom in Top 14, how bad is that squad they announced for the Edinburgh game?

13/5 at home to a poor enough Edinburgh lineup.

I'd be very hesitant to go near betting on a poor French team in the Challenge Cup. They don't give a monkeys.

razorblunt · 15-11-2019 4:43pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

I'd be very hesitant to go near betting on a poor French team in the Challenge Cup. They don't give a monkeys.

Yeah, I've come away from it entirely.

Just makes Stade Francais vs Brive an absolute clusterfcuk.

Loafing Oaf · 15-11-2019 5:37pm

Doing a Frenchie treble on Clermont, La Rochelle and Toulouse to top their pools.

thomond2006 · 15-11-2019 6:50pm

razorblunt wrote: »

Yeah, I've come away from it entirely.

Just makes Stade Francais vs Brive an absolute clusterfcuk.

I'm cursed so now Agen will put 50 on them.

sydthebeat · 15-11-2019 7:14pm

Taken leinster -24 @evens

Kelliher anytime @5/6

liosnagceann75 · 15-11-2019 7:39pm

4 provinces to qualify for the quarter finals 66/1. What do ye think?

Loafing Oaf · 15-11-2019 8:41pm

liosnagceann75 wrote: »

4 provinces to qualify for the quarter finals 66/1. What do ye think?

I'd be looking for much longer odds than that, considering you can get an acca on the four to win their pools for 500/1

razorblunt · 15-11-2019 8:46pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

I'm cursed so now Agen will put 50 on them.

Embra already 21-3 up. Not even HT.

Bazzo · 17-11-2019 4:34pm

Was anyone on a sweep for the provinces this weekend?

sydthebeat · 18-11-2019 5:59pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

Taken leinster -24 @evens

Kelliher anytime @5/6

thanks Ronan

my nap for this weekend is monty -7 @evens ..... it will drift out after teams are named.

thomond2006 · 19-11-2019 6:12pm

Saracens -21 might be a good one to look at, pending lineups.

sydthebeat · 22-11-2019 12:47pm

ACCA For the weekend:

ulster win
munster win
leinster win
connacht +21

@8.3 / 1

plus a yankee on same

i also have mony -7 versus glaws (already drifted to -8)

sydthebeat · 22-11-2019 2:02pm

montpellier already gone to -11 after teams named

The real mccoy 91 · 22-11-2019 4:10pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

ACCA For the weekend:

ulster win
munster win
leinster win
connacht +21

@8.3 / 1

plus a yankee on same

Seems dreadfully short for a Yankee? Even 3 winners doesn't even double your money(roughly working it out in my head)

sydthebeat · 22-11-2019 4:40pm

The real mccoy 91 wrote: »

Seems dreadfully short for a Yankee? Even 3 winners doesn't even double your money(roughly working it out in my head)

yeah i generally dont do yankees on rugby, but i just threw it on after the acca.

if all four come in its about a 4/1 return,

any individual loss still has me in profit, though starting about 60% going down to 25%

Betting Thread Part III - Insert witty title here

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