Big Freeze in early/mid February?

Few hailstones here in Derry this morning.

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Whats with the confused smiley?

tylercollins wrote: »

Whats with the confused smiley?

Good chance it's to do with topic Vs post unless hailstones in Derry in Jan is a sign of a big freeze in Feb:rolleyes:

muckish wrote: »

Light snow in Dublin! Better watch the 6 o'clock news headlines then.

Tot i was the only one who seen it!
Even tough it was wet snow it was still snow!.... (and again theres are full moon out!)

Dont think M É had anything saying that there would be sleety snow.

Bring on the BIG FREEZE : PART II

Looks good , Still a long way to go, I gona take this with some salt. :P

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am hoping to see an upgrade in the ECM charts tomorrow regarding this potential easterly, because I find nothing encouraging in tonight's run, although I just briefly glanced. As much as I can see, I see nothing but the continuation of the same pointless, non-descript crap we have currently endured over the last 2 weeks for the foreseeable. Looks more interesting towards the end of the run for sure, but that is where the interest seems to be remaining over the last few runs. More runs needed of course to see if a trend is being locked onto, but at this stage, I am far from encouraged. The last few Jan's have been soft and gentle, but this one takes the cookie. It is like living in the doldrums. It is like all weather has stopped, just the same thing everyday. Typical that such a non-descript pattern should last the longest.

you are like these two;)
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it would be funny if, afterall the bashing, the ukmo turned out to be right about what's ahead for February and the other models then followed suit...

Joe Bastardi:

FRIDAY 11 PM LONDON TIME

A THEORY ON WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE CLIMATE MODELS.

The Us generated CFS for the month of January on its last "nowcast" had most of the US more than 5 above normal for the month on January. Nothing could be farther from the truth in reality. A spot check of 16 selected cities I use for my monthly verifications to my clients had the forecasted temp for January for the combination of all cities at 5.6 above normal ( The January run came off on the 21st) Much better was its Jan 10th forecast which they are using in the archives ( good thing), but it was still a bit too warm across the north. But the point is it was out of control. The actual Temp of all the cities to approximate the nations temps: -.25! In fact only one major city in the sample, Seattle is as warm as the model says ( plus 6.2) Balancing that off is Orlando at -7 This is not as cold as December which was a bit over -3. But I showed that for you on the Long Ranger, how warm the climate model was for January.

Now lest you think I am picking on NOAA, lets go to the UKMET. There is no where in Europe it has Below normal forecasted for Jan through March on its forecast. It is as bad there, as the CFS was with its nowcast. This is going to be a top 5 cold winter in eastern Europe, giving a different meaning to the cold war... because after this winter people will be at war with anyone shoving global warming down their throats. And one of the things I told Europeans in the prewinter period , and even said in on the Imus show here in the states, when this winter is done, no one is going to want to here about this.

But is this on purpose.. for Instance the UKMET folks made a boast that 2010 would be the hottest on record. I responded by saying not unless someone is cooking the books. But there must be something they are trusting in their modeling to say that. ( By the way the earths temps can be seen in the objective satellite guidance found here: http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ courtesy of Dr. Roy Spencer

So here is my theory 1) All climate models are essentially the same. Why? Well they each have their own way of development based on physics but what happens is that the modelers watch the other models and adapt the strengths they see in the other models. Two models may be different at one time, in their early stages, but upgrades taking from other models essentially start to blend them all together. In the end, they all see about the same thing, because they have evolved through the years. This is Bill Grays theory and I think he is right.

But point 2) Is where I take over. The models have been developed in a period of warm PDO, then warm AMO with high solar constant. Such things can not be "modeled in". Instead the model is forced to react to something it can not approximate and is forced to play catch up. When the atmosphere was warming in reaction to these un modeled driver, it probably had a cold bias. Modelers may have been forced to adjust to the this to improve the model skill scores. But they adjusted based on RESULTS. not the true CAUSES OF THE ERRORS!

Now what happens when we start taking away the drivers that may have been causing the warming. The PDO turns cold.. low solar constants have taken over, the AMO is going to turn cold in 10-15 years,. and then the wild card is seismic activity which causes increased volcanism and may be a by product of the low solar activity. Where do you think the bias will be? Its intuitive, it WOULD BE OPPOSITE.. A WARM BIAS!

Now, something I have been talking about in the debate, the lack of warming in the tropics and the drop in specific humidity, which is something that limits tropical activity, since drier air over the tropics means a storm has to "work" harder to develop.. as the pumping of moisture into the high levels would cool the air more than usual. It was part and parcel of why this was not a big year in the atlantic, or anywhere, not the el nino, as if it was el nino driven, one would have seen a marked increase in the Pacific. But now we here the global warming crowd saying, well its drying a bit, that is why its not warming. That it is drying in the stratosphere is even better ( they havent even acknowledged their bust in the troposphere over the tropics, the real smoking gun). it means the stratosphere is not cooling as they said it would ( Dr. Tiffany Shaw has bravely gone where no one else would go on this, and pointed this out in her research!) And they cant explain it?

Sometimes I think they are blundering, and they dont even know it. Lets assume that was the answer, dont they understand that this means the co2 argument is done?. You are admitting that there is something bigger that is in control, and its not co2. That others have known this before, is of course not mentioned, The think by saying that, they will be able to justify the cooling and then say co2 will still be a problem. But how can it be the problem if you are telling us that water vapor increases or decreases are responsible ( which is much more likely than co 2) You can t have it both ways. So you have killed your own argument. Which is what others have done with the sunspot cycle. If they chuckle with glee if sunspots come roaring back to life because it means the earths temps may go up, then you are admitting that its the sunspots are the drivers.

Now I will again state my position, so we understand. I think we are going to get our answer in the next 20-30 years, that these large scale drivers that models cant handle and can only react to, not forecast, will have their day. If the earth cools by objective Satellite measurements, not nasa or Giss or NOAA or whoever playing around ( the temps when we started measuring and the total sea ice when we started measuring in the late 70s) the its obvious I and many like me are right, that it is not a big deal. If it doesnt, then maybe c02 would be a problem but many many decades from now, especially in light of doubling co2 would have a greater positive effect on food growth to feed people... something I think we are all in favor of. In the meantime, if its going to get warm, these models can see it. If its going to be cold, they are helpless.

I think I have a good argument as to why, if you simply follow the evidence.

ciao for now

start panicking if the new and improved ecm follows suit.

although admittedly with the gfs now backtracking on proper cold taking hold it doesn't look good.

darkman2 wrote: »

Gladly,


Forgive me for being a little basic.

The chart above shows a very cold Easterly airflow over Ireland from the continent. The chart above is a synoptic chart showing variations in pressure represented by the lines. Around Low Pressure ("T" on the map above) air flows anti clockwise. Around an area of High Pressure ("H" on the map) air flows clockwise. The closer together the lines (called isobars) are the higher the winds. You can also pick out frontal features, or rain bands, by noting chinks or distortions in the isobars.

The colours on the chart are not temperature btw. That is something called "geopotential heights" which is not all that important for you to know atm. But simply greens and blues mean more rain potential and lower pressure and yellows and reds mean less rain potential and higher pressure.

cheers for that darkman2,it makes alot more sense&know d basics to look for from now on

Last chance saloon seems to have come and gone for sustained cold judging by the latest model outputs as far as I can see. Great opportunity with all that cold to tap in to and blocking very nearly in place but it seem there is just too much energy in the Atlantic despite the promise of - AO and other favourable synoptics.
So we'll more than likely have to rely on a Northerly for snow from now on.

So despite the upgrade, to the usully reliable ecmwf model, it was the ukmo which led the way on there being no easterly. The gfs was last to cave in, but it was inevitable that it would.
Joe Bastardi got it spot on for this winter too. The likes of Berlin has seen no let up this winter. While England and Ireland have just flirted with the colder easterly air since the middle of January, as he said we would, with the core of the cold remaining in continental Europe.

jambofc wrote: »

incredibly infuriating how close this winter has been to a once in a lifetime event.

yeah exactly:(:(

I'm starting to lose hope we'll ever see a winter like those that have gone down in snow folkore.