Potential Stormy - Sun/Mon (Media hyped storm, never forecast by Met/Boards)

Ah now you've gone and jinxed it by starting a thread! :P

Good ensemble agreement on the 06Z GFS for an absolute pressure nosedive :



Looks like a 50mb drop over a couple of hours.

Anyone know the record for the fastest drop in air pressure in Ireland?

it will be very windy id say on Sunday night with high gusts of 50knots or more and cold too. Ive been tracking this a while and its stayed consistent. Its not going to give up the ghost now surely?:rolleyes:

pauldry wrote: »

it will be very windy id say on Sunday night with high gusts of 50knots or more and cold too. Ive been tracking this a while and its stayed consistent. Its not going to give up the ghost now surely?:rolleyes:

The track and intensity is far from nailed. Compare the 0Z GEM to the 0Z GME for example. Big differences even on the GFS between the 0Z and 06Z runs, center of the low hundreds of miles apart on each run at T96.

It's a fun one to watch though. If we got the kind of pressure drop some of the models are showing and the center of low ended up tracking further east and didn't fill.... we could get a serious auld storm.

Hooter23 wrote: »

I think the track of this storm will defiantly change again the current track does look unusual it seems to dive to a very southerly direction which I think is not the usual track of these storms.
Also does anyone notice when these storms don't go their usual track between Iceland and Ireland and instead head toward France they seem to be a lot more extreme than usual or am I talking rubbish:pac:

Yeah this isn't a common one. We usually see lows track straight across the Atlantic then curve away northeastward before reaching our shores.

Yeah I'm sure there will be changes to the track, the thing hasn't even formed yet. :P But that hasn't stopped the lads on the Met Monkey forums from ramping this up : :rolleyes:

Within the main jet streak, towards the South West quadrant of the storm system currently forecast some-where across Ireland and to the W of Ireland there is the potential of storm force winds sustained or in excess with gusts to 80 or 90mph. Needless to say, if a sting jet formation would develop - perhaps gusts in excess of even these values would be possible.

Yeah not much of a change on the 12Z GFS.

For people who don't usually look at charts like the ones posted here and who might be interested in this, I think it's worth pointing out that the strongest winds are where the isobars are tightly together, in this case off to our west in the Atlantic. The center of the low is right over Ireland there but that actually means there wind would be very weak here apart from around the exposed coasts.

Nice chart showing the highest forecast gusts based on 12Z GFS.
Gusts of around the 130kmph mark out at sea to our west there. But if the track shifted enough to the east and kept the same intensity....

iam in the west,mayo to be more accurate what will we be geting ??

the only sheep i have are in me freezer.which is what iam eating for to nights dinner

Met Eireann showed one hell of a low pressure system for Sunday/Monday on the forecast tonight.

So noting then for the east coast ( DUBLIN ) apart from a bit of rain then?? :(:(

Was hoping to go out to the coast and get a few pics of some angry seas!

What about the tuesday potential anyone?

WolfeIRE wrote: »

18hz GFS does not alter the path of sunday's story in any way. Same as 12hz output

Im not sure if the GFS has a handle on this storm yet. It explodes then becomes flabby over Ireland then tightens back up again. Either we have some kind of secret supernatural storm shield here or I dunno what. Ive never seen a storm develop like that and the direction its coming from too is odd.

Met Monkey weather ramp outlook :

All eyes are well and truly on the Atlantic right now as a quite violent and angry jet stream begins to pick up pace. By Saturday AM low pressure around Newfoundland will have already developed in response to extremely warm and moist air being pushed Northwards from the tropics courtesy of an upper ridged pattern. A jet streak spirals at 165kts out of Newfoundland by this time, intensifying to a very impressive 195kts+ by Sunday Morning. As the jet rounds the upper ridge pattern and plunges to the East in a strong North to South elongation – so the low moving across the Arctic has the key ingredients to under-go a very explosive deepening.

We anticipate that by Sunday AM the low will be rapidly deepening in an explosive fashion, what we know in the business as Bombogenisis or Explosive Cyclogenisis. These storms are more than capable of bringing very dangerous weather conditions associated with high winds and very heavy rainfall.

Batten Down the Hatches would be our advice to you right now, especially if you live in more exposed Western parts of Scotland, England and Wales – including the entire South Coast. Despite being on the weaker side of the jet, there will be widespread severe gales on the Eastern and South Eastern flanks of the storm system and gusts of 70 – 80mph will be a possibility.

Due to the amount of rain that we have had in the last few days and combined with the heavy rainfall that will be spreading in from the West during Monday, anchorage on top heavy trees will be weakened and combined with gales – uprooting of trees will be a possibility. Britain is currently bracing itself for disruption to transport networks and power utilities.

As we go through the next few days we’ll be continually monitoring the development, offering analysis and more comprehensive information with regards to the worst affected areas.

I think it will be further East, or, at least, it will have a more pronounced E'ly component to it's track. The track it's projected to take is freakish- but then so was the track of hurricane debbie.

i certainly don't envy the task of forecasting agencies this weekend.

I think you can blame the large flabby centre on a high carbohydrate diet.

But also the storm has time to spin out a vast occlusion and is tracking at almost right angles to the normal storm track. This means that thermal contrast reduces rapidly from the time where the pressure falls are intense near Iceland, to the time where the storm is just in steady state over Ireland. If the models have the right call on this (remains to be seen) then it takes 2-3 days for a system this massive to fill up, but the process of stacking from surface to upper levels will basically create a vast swirl of moist air with similar temperatures all around (8-12 C).

I think this is plausible based on a few other cases that I've seen with low pressure tracking in this odd direction. If you compared this with a low of similar central pressure moving northeast, it won't be anywhere near as dynamic, but that pressure gradient is bound to create strong enough winds until you get into the dead zone which looks like anything under 964 mbs to the centre. In the dead zone there may be very little wind and not all that much rainfall either, just some patchy rain and drizzle.

This will be basically more isobars than weather for about 12-18 hours currently estimated to be Sunday evening to Monday mid-day. Then the second half of the event will arrive and it could get rather blustery if the centre holds to a low pressure and doesn't just fill up rapidly.

I'll tackle the details again at 0600 after the 00z model runs.

Aiel wrote: »

Conditions like these on the link below are what im hoping for on Sunday in Salthill.As i said i'll be there with my camera.Actually the last time a high tide and storm happened together in Galway the river Corrib rose to a record level and reached past the Spanish Arch to Quay Street,it was incredible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbpaalw0-SI

Yeah I remember people were complaining to the city council that "Flood St." was flooded:D
There's a clue in the name.