Boards weather forecast contest Feb 2018

Table of forecasts for February 2018

This is what I see so far, expecting a few more, will edit them in if possible or just repost the table.

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 14th, loc'n

Tae laidir ____________5.6 _ 14.7 _ --6.1 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 1.5 hrs Cork

sunflower3 __________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ --6.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 3.5 hrs Johnstown Castle

Rikand ______________5.5 _ 14.5 _ --6.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 5.0 hrs Valentia

Lumi _______________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ --6.3 _ 105 _ 096 ____ 3.7 hrs Valentia

Pauldry _____________ 5.4 _ 14.8_ --5.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 5.4 hrs Casement

john mac ____________5.4 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 3.3 hrs Belmullet

waterways ____ (-5) __ 5.3 _ 16.0 _ --9.0 _ 087 _ 110 ____ 2.0 hrs Cork

Kindred Spirit _________5.3 _ 15.6 _ --5.1 _ 088 _ 105 ____ 4.5 hrs Casement

Bsal ________________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 099 ____ 3.7 hrs Casement


___ NormaL __________5.3 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0 hrs (loc'n based on normals)


Rameire _____ (-2) ____5.1 _ 15.5 _ --6.0 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 2.5 hrs (Valentia)

200motels ___________ 5.1 _ 14.6 _ --5.9 _ 109 _ 108 ____ 5.1 hrs Casement

Dasa29 ______________5.1 _ 13.5 _ --4.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 5.5 hrs Belmullet


___ Con Sensus _______ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ --6.2 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 4.5 hrs _ 3 Belmullet, 2 Cas or JC, 1 Val


JCXBXC _____________ 5.0 _ 15.1 _ --5.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 3.1 hrs Oak Park*

Joe Public ____________4.9 _ 14.9 _ --6.9 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 4.9 hrs Malin Head

DOCARCH ___________ 4.9 _ 13.1 _ --6.2 _ 088 _ 098 ____ 4.3 hrs Cork

Jpmarn _____________ 4.8 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 075 _ 115 ____ 4.5 hrs Belmullet

sdanseo _____________4.7 _ 15.0 _ --6.2 _ 111 _ 105 ____ 4.8 hrs Johnstown Castle

Dacogawa ___________ 4.7 _ 14.0 _ --6.9 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 5.3 hrs Knock

MrSkinner ___________ 4.6 _ 13.8 _ --7.0 _ 086 _ 100 ____ 4.5 hrs Dublin

mickger844posts ______4.2 _ 14.8 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 5.3 hrs Johnstown Castle

sryanbruen __________ 4.2 _ 14.1 _ --9.0 _ 085 _ 125 ____ 4.3 hrs Belmullet

BLIZZARD7 __________ 3.2 _ 14.1 _ -13.1 _ 085 _ 125 ____ 5.3 hrs Knock

M.T. Cranium _________2.9 _ 13.7 _ -10.1 _ 050 _ 200 ____ 6.7 hrs Belmullet

_________________________________________________________________

* Oak Park does not record sunshine so these will be converted to Johnstown Castle or whatever the posters prefer (up to end of 2nd). Sdanseo accepted Johnstown Castle as shown now.

Normal max sunshine based on 25% more than any station's average to account for random variation.

Normal's location will be scored on the basis of average sunshine hours at these locations. Normal scores higher if the sunnier locations win out. Con Sensus location is scored as shown in the table.

Our choices for location of maximum sunshine included 7 for Belmullet, 4 for each of Casement and JC, and 3 for Valentia, 2 for Cork, then 1 each for Malin Head, Knock and Dublin. Shannon and Gurteen were not picked by any of our 23 forecasters.

Con Sensus is median, 12th ranked forecast.

10.5 at Belmullet on 4th was the highest so far this month, and the only reading into double digits that I've seen.

Did anyone see my earlier post? I said Knock had beaten out some stations for sunshine on 14th but not all data were posted yet. Well I refreshed the page and all the data are there now.

Knock is the champion of sunshine, must be a rather unusual outcome, but that's what they say, 3.4 hours just ahead of 3.3 at Gurteen and 2.8 at Malin Head.

Congrats to Dacogawa and BLIZZARD7 who guessed Knock, and to sunflower3 and Johnmac who were closest to the right value. 2pt Superbonus won't be awarded but maybe some 1 pt ones will emerge, will score this end of the month.

Thanks, I was editing when you posted.

We are an optimistic group, 18 of 23 forecasts were too high although sunflower3 by only 0.1 hour. Johnmac was 0.1 low. Nobody picked Gurteen and only one (Joe Public) picked third place Malin Head.

The sunny south coast (JC 0.7, Cork 0.6 hours) finished dead last. So it goes.

Another rather cold week for the second week of February ...

IMT now on 3.5 with the second week at 4.0, still 1.3 below normal.

PRC has moved above normal now, the second week had 191% of normal which leaves the month at 122%.

SUN remains high although my hopes for 200% are fading a little, this past week managed 153% (916/600) and the running average then is 160 per cent of normal. If this keeps up, we'll be scoring off the minimum progression as the second highest forecasts are 125%, anything between 133% and 192% is going to trigger full minimum progression, under the rules, I can limit everyone else's boost to half if the result is 193 to 207 for a natural score of 9 or 10 ... I don't think the forecasts below 125 will require any boost if 125 scores 9 or 10 ... so that's a very narrow window for losing the 2 to 5 points involved in a reduced minimum progression, I wouldn't worry about it happening. Knowing my luck we will come in at 192 (more likely 140ish).

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Was going to say, I can see the all time February minimum coming under pressure next week.

Problem is, rather windy and air mass laden with low level moisture (snow) for several days, any exceptionally cold mornings may have to wait until pressure builds a bit and skies clear some night but that could be into March. I do think we will get below -7 C for this month but could imagine a -12 to -15 minimum after snowfall if we can get clear skies one night.

After three weeks ...

IMT on 4.1 C with this past week a more moderate 5.3 C which is 0.3 below normal. This looks like staying steady to 25th then falling sharply to end around 3.3 C.

PRC has moved back down to 103% of normal as this past week was rather dry at only 65% of normal. This will likely continue to fall off, even if some heavy snow happened at the very end of the month, week overall looks generally dry, would say 90% or lower for a finish.

SUN is staying on the high side of most forecasts at 157% of normal with this past week at 142% (849/600). I suspect there won't be a lot of sunshine this week so this may end up around 135%. We are guaranteed nothing lower than 118% even if it remains overcast all week. For my 200% to verify I would need over 3 times normal which needs clear skies almost all the time. My only hope now is to have enough sunshine that my error is no larger than most others.

MAX 14.3, MIN of --4.2 previously was tied on 21st at Mullingar.

The max is probably safe, the MIN depends on how much cloud comes in with the colder air, I think a reading below -7 C is quite possible on 27th and/or 28th, how much lower depends on cloud cover and snow on the ground by morning of 28th, but anything phenomenally cold will likely be delayed into early March.

I will get a March contest thread up soon, with some protective rules about scoring for the MIN (not just late penalties but perfect MIN after-a-reading score reductions in case the MIN happens on 1st or 2nd and it seems obviously locked in.

The lowest reported yesterday (or Tuesday) was --5.7 at Gurteen, so that's probably the new MIN (could have gone a lot lower with clear skies anywhere at the right time).

The IMT will likely finish around 3.6, will confirm that. Yesterday's IMT was --2.3 C.