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Boards weather forecast contest Feb 2018

M.T. Cranium

If you happen to be unfamiliar with our contests, scroll down the menu to the January thread, more details there.

1. Predict the IMT for February (1981-2010 average is 5.3 C)

2. Predict the MAX

3. Predict the MIN

4. Predict the PRC (% of normal)

5. Predict the SUN (% of normal)

6. BONUS: On 14th, where will the sun shine most and for how long?

One valid answer would be 0.0 hours all locations

Otherwise, predict an amount in hours (and tenths) and a location from this menu of recording staitons -- Belmullet, Malin Head, Gurteen, Knock, Casement, Dublin, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia, Shannon

Any station that manages more than 5 hours will count as a correct answer, if the amount is 0.1 to 4.9 hours your location score will be 3 if correct, 2 if you guess the second highest and 1 if the third highest.

(that leaves seven points for your amount prediction -- 10 is about the max possible)

Deadline without late penalties will be 0300h Thursday 1st of February.

As regulars here know, I am taking a bit of a vacation from forecasting this week and I won't be around to look in much on this thread, perhaps some of you can keep an eye on responses and get in touch with any new entrants who might be unfamiliar with our contest format (if you see entries you suspect to be misdirected to the actual questions). Thanks and good luck.

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sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Great to have a February twice as sunny as normal. Its a given isnt it?&#55357;&#56832;

After last year's dreadful affairs, we deserve it.

M.T. Cranium

10.5 at Belmullet on 4th was the highest so far this month, and the only reading into double digits that I've seen.

JCX BXC

Have only read the thread now, Johnstown Castle will do!

Joe Public

-4.2C at Mullingar yesterday, is that the lowest yet?

M.T. Cranium

After the first chilly week ...

IMT on 3.1, which is 2.1 below normal.

MAX 10.5, MIN -4.2 (max may edge up after today?)

PRC only 52% of normal so far.

SUN 167% of normal (1003/600).

pauldry

The 200percent Febs still on MT. Well done

Mines a blowout!

Tae laidir

Moore Park 12.3 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

Did anyone see my earlier post? I said Knock had beaten out some stations for sunshine on 14th but not all data were posted yet. Well I refreshed the page and all the data are there now.

Knock is the champion of sunshine, must be a rather unusual outcome, but that's what they say, 3.4 hours just ahead of 3.3 at Gurteen and 2.8 at Malin Head.

Congrats to Dacogawa and BLIZZARD7 who guessed Knock, and to sunflower3 and Johnmac who were closest to the right value. 2pt Superbonus won't be awarded but maybe some 1 pt ones will emerge, will score this end of the month.

pauldry

No they seem to be on yesterdays report

3.4 knock
3.3 gurteen

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, I was editing when you posted.

We are an optimistic group, 18 of 23 forecasts were too high although sunflower3 by only 0.1 hour. Johnmac was 0.1 low. Nobody picked Gurteen and only one (Joe Public) picked third place Malin Head.

The sunny south coast (JC 0.7, Cork 0.6 hours) finished dead last. So it goes.

M.T. Cranium

So on the location, would say 3 points for the two who picked Knock, 2 points for Joe Public with Malin Head and 1 point for anyone who picked any of Shannon, Dublin or Belmullet which were just behind Malin Head and ahead of the rest of the pack. Otherwise only three out of 23 will get any points for location (because nobody picked 2nd place Gurteen for the two points). Will give Con and NormaL 1 point on the same basis.

You can figure out roughly how many points for sunshine hours, I will give seven points to top four and 6 down to 1 point to groups of three or four depending on how they cluster. Surprised nobody took the all zero option, it probably doesn't happen that often in mid-February as opposed to December but it must happen sometimes.

M.T. Cranium

Another rather cold week for the second week of February ...

IMT now on 3.5 with the second week at 4.0, still 1.3 below normal.

PRC has moved above normal now, the second week had 191% of normal which leaves the month at 122%.

SUN remains high although my hopes for 200% are fading a little, this past week managed 153% (916/600) and the running average then is 160 per cent of normal. If this keeps up, we'll be scoring off the minimum progression as the second highest forecasts are 125%, anything between 133% and 192% is going to trigger full minimum progression, under the rules, I can limit everyone else's boost to half if the result is 193 to 207 for a natural score of 9 or 10 ... I don't think the forecasts below 125 will require any boost if 125 scores 9 or 10 ... so that's a very narrow window for losing the 2 to 5 points involved in a reduced minimum progression, I wouldn't worry about it happening. Knowing my luck we will come in at 192 (more likely 140ish).

M.T. Cranium

Not quite as mild as the previous max on Sunday (12.1 the highest values). Today could challenge again.

I think I see a new MIN coming from Siberia.

BLIZZARD7

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not quite as mild as the previous max on Sunday (12.1 the highest values). Today could challenge again.

I think I see a new MIN coming from Siberia.

Was going to say, I can see the all time February minimum coming under pressure next week.

pauldry

Today got to 14c in parts of Cork

Next week will prob hit -8c somewhere

M.T. Cranium

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Was going to say, I can see the all time February minimum coming under pressure next week.

Problem is, rather windy and air mass laden with low level moisture (snow) for several days, any exceptionally cold mornings may have to wait until pressure builds a bit and skies clear some night but that could be into March. I do think we will get below -7 C for this month but could imagine a -12 to -15 minimum after snowfall if we can get clear skies one night.

Tae laidir

And after all the talk about cold, Moore Park reached 14.3 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 4.1 C with this past week a more moderate 5.3 C which is 0.3 below normal. This looks like staying steady to 25th then falling sharply to end around 3.3 C.

PRC has moved back down to 103% of normal as this past week was rather dry at only 65% of normal. This will likely continue to fall off, even if some heavy snow happened at the very end of the month, week overall looks generally dry, would say 90% or lower for a finish.

SUN is staying on the high side of most forecasts at 157% of normal with this past week at 142% (849/600). I suspect there won't be a lot of sunshine this week so this may end up around 135%. We are guaranteed nothing lower than 118% even if it remains overcast all week. For my 200% to verify I would need over 3 times normal which needs clear skies almost all the time. My only hope now is to have enough sunshine that my error is no larger than most others.

MAX 14.3, MIN of --4.2 previously was tied on 21st at Mullingar.

The max is probably safe, the MIN depends on how much cloud comes in with the colder air, I think a reading below -7 C is quite possible on 27th and/or 28th, how much lower depends on cloud cover and snow on the ground by morning of 28th, but anything phenomenally cold will likely be delayed into early March.

I will get a March contest thread up soon, with some protective rules about scoring for the MIN (not just late penalties but perfect MIN after-a-reading score reductions in case the MIN happens on 1st or 2nd and it seems obviously locked in.

M.T. Cranium

The new MIN is --5.5 C from Mountdillon on Sunday morning. That won't last too long.

M.T. Cranium

The lowest reported yesterday (or Tuesday) was --5.7 at Gurteen, so that's probably the new MIN (could have gone a lot lower with clear skies anywhere at the right time).

The IMT will likely finish around 3.6, will confirm that. Yesterday's IMT was --2.3 C.

Danno

Overnight low of -9.7c air at Met Eireann Climate Station in Durrow, Laois.

JCX BXC

Danno wrote: »

Overnight low of -9.7c air at Met Eireann Climate Station in Durrow, Laois.

If it was after 12 would it not make it March though?

M.T. Cranium

That is correct, but even if it was colder there at midnight (end of February) than --5.7, our contest uses only the information provided on the website page as confirmed end of month in the Monthly Summary. Whatever it says in there, is our MIN. The Monthly Summary normally appears on the second day of the month, will not be too surprised if that comes in a bit late for February, we shall see. In all the years I have been doing this contest, there was only one "surprise" max or min and that was when they added several stations including Phoenix Park to the list in "yesterday's weather" and gave out that value a month early in the MS.

So anyway, as of now the MIN is --5.7, seems like the whole country was within a degree of that at midnight.

M.T. Cranium

Report on the fourth week and final values for February (to be confirmed from MS which is scheduled for tomorrow)

IMT has finished on 3.6 C. The fourth week averaged 2.2 C which was 3.9 below normal.

MAX we think was 14.3 and MIN --5.7.

PRC ended up around 81% of normal, the last week was only 13% and that mostly from snow in Leinster yesterday.

SUN will be close to 150% with the last week managing 136% (813/600).

I will confirm all of these from the MS and post some scores when possible. SUN will be scored by minimum progression, this total fell in the vast space between my overly optimistic 200% (Belmullet perhaps) and the next highest 125%. Under the rules, my score will be the same as anyone who said normal, might have to tweak the rule a bit as the normal distribution is skewed near the top end of outcomes, but them's the breaks.

M.T. Cranium

The snowfall seems to have delayed the posting of the February MS on the met.ie website so I calculated the PRC and here's the likely final version of scoring unless I read something different when they publish ...

IMT 3.6

MAX 14.3

MIN --5.7

PRC 84%

SUN 150%

BONUS -- 3.4h Knock. See discussion earlier (posts 39 to 42)

Scoring for February 2018

FORECASTER _________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ BONUS __ TOTAL

mickger844posts ______ 22 _ 15 _ 17 _ 13 _ 06 ____ 4 + 0 _____ 77

BLIZZARD7 ___________24 _ 18 _ 00 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 4 + 3 _____ 73

JCXBXC ______________14 _ 12 _ 18 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 7 + 0 _____ 72

sryanbruen ___________22 _ 18 _ 00 _ 15 _ 09 ____ 6 + 1 _____ 71

Dacogawa ___________ 17 _ 17 _ 08 _ 13 _ 05 ____ 4 + 3 _____ 67

___ Con Sensus _______13 _ 15 _ 15 _ 13 _ 05 ____ 5 +1 _____ 67

200motels ___________ 13 _ 17 _ 18 _ 07 _ 06 ____ 4 + 0 _____ 65

Rikand ______________ 09 _ 18 _ 12 _ 13 _ 08 ____ 4 + 0 _____ 64

MrSkinner ___________ 18 _ 15 _ 07 _ 14 _ 04 ____ 5 + 1 _____ 64

Joe Public ____________15 _ 14 _ 08 _ 13 _ 06 ____ 4 + 2 _____ 62

DOCARCH ____________15 _ 08 _ 15 _ 14 _ 04 ____ 6 + 0 _____ 62

Jpmarn ______________ 16 _ 18 _ 02 _ 12 _ 07 ____ 5 + 1 _____ 61

sdanseo ______________17 _ 13 _ 15 _ 06 _ 05 ____ 5 + 0 _____ 61

Pauldry ______________ 10 _ 15 _ 18 _ 08 _ 04 ____ 3 + 0 _____ 58

john mac _____________10 _ 18 _ 13 _ 06 _ 03 ____ 7 + 1 _____ 58

sunflower3 ___________ 09 _ 11 _ 12 _ 13 _ 04 ____ 7 + 0 _____ 56

Kindred Spirit _________ 11 _ 07 _ 14 _ 14 _ 05 ____ 5 + 0 _____ 56

Rameire _____ (-2) ____13 _ 08 _ 17 _ 09 _ 05 ____ 6 + 0 _58-2=56

Lumi ________________ 10 _ 12 _ 14 _ 08 _ 03 ____ 7 + 0 _____ 54

Tae laidir _____________08 _ 16 _ 16 _ 06 _ 03 ____ 4 + 0 _____ 53

___ NormaL __________11 _ 13 _ 07 _ 10 _ 04 ____ 6 + 1 _____ 52

Bsal _________________11 _ 08 _ 13 _ 06 _ 04 ____ 7 + 0 _____ 49

M.T. Cranium _________ 21 _ 14 _ 00 _ 04 _ 04 ____ 1 + 1 _____ 45

Dasa29 ______________ 13 _ 12 _ 03 _ 05 _ 03 ____ 3 + 1 _____ 40

waterways ____ (-5) ___ 11 _ 03 _ 00 _ 14 _ 06 ____ 5 + 0 _39-5=34

_________________________________________________________________

Due to the unusually cold IMT falling in a wide gap between 3.2 and 4.2 forecasts, all IMT scores add 3 to raw.

As SUN fell in an even larger gap (125 to 200) it is scored from not quite the usual minimum progression, as the lower end scores were all bunched together and would have made for too many tie-breakers. This was made easier by assuming the scoring was from 130% not 150%, except for one higher value of 200% being scored equal to the 100%'s. It left the lowest scores as 3 which seems fair because 95% and 125% are not that different as estimates compared with 150% as the actual. Nobody went down into the usual cloudy range we see in our forecasts (75 to 90 per cent) so I thought a higher base was justified.

The bonus was also scored rather generously since most forecasts (except mine) were not that wide of the actual value so I scored all of you between 3 and 7 (out of 7) then gave myself one (it could have been worse). This partly offsets the few points gained for location (Knock, knock. who's there. SUN !)

Scoring is remarkably uniform, a lot of 60s and high 50s ... just a few 70s ... all subject to confirmation so I won't prematurely congratulate (sounds naughty). BLIZZARD7 was unlucky with the minimum being nowhere near -10 (which it could have been in that frigid air mass), and moi aussi, but his score would have been pushing 90 with that close call. Mine needed further interventions. Pleased enough to sense the SUN would be high and I think 200% maybe verified at Belmullet. So that's something (Pauldry not a long way from there, so maybe he got his personal 200% as requested). I aim to please. Confirmation whenever the Feb MS appears, then I will work out annual total (Jan-Feb) and winter seasonal points. On to the table of March forecasts.

=============================================================================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 14th, loc'n

Tae laidir ____________5.6 _ 14.7 _ --6.1 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 1.5 hrs Cork

sunflower3 __________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ --6.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 3.5 hrs Johnstown Castle

Rikand ______________5.5 _ 14.5 _ --6.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 5.0 hrs Valentia

Lumi _______________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ --6.3 _ 105 _ 096 ____ 3.7 hrs Valentia

Pauldry _____________ 5.4 _ 14.8_ --5.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 5.4 hrs Casement

john mac ____________5.4 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 3.3 hrs Belmullet

waterways ____ (-5) __ 5.3 _ 16.0 _ --9.0 _ 087 _ 110 ____ 2.0 hrs Cork

Kindred Spirit _________5.3 _ 15.6 _ --5.1 _ 088 _ 105 ____ 4.5 hrs Casement

Bsal ________________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 099 ____ 3.7 hrs Casement

___ NormaL __________5.3 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0 hrs (loc'n based on normals)

Rameire _____ (-2) ____5.1 _ 15.5 _ --6.0 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 2.5 hrs (Valentia)

200motels ___________ 5.1 _ 14.6 _ --5.9 _ 109 _ 108 ____ 5.1 hrs Casement

Dasa29 ______________5.1 _ 13.5 _ --4.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 5.5 hrs Belmullet

___ Con Sensus _______ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ --6.2 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 4.5 hrs _ 3 Belmullet, 2 Cas or JC, 1 Val

JCXBXC _____________ 5.0 _ 15.1 _ --5.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 3.1 hrs Oak Park*

Joe Public ____________4.9 _ 14.9 _ --6.9 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 4.9 hrs Malin Head

DOCARCH ___________ 4.9 _ 13.1 _ --6.2 _ 088 _ 098 ____ 4.3 hrs Cork

Jpmarn _____________ 4.8 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 075 _ 115 ____ 4.5 hrs Belmullet

sdanseo _____________4.7 _ 15.0 _ --6.2 _ 111 _ 105 ____ 4.8 hrs Johnstown Castle

Dacogawa ___________ 4.7 _ 14.0 _ --6.9 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 5.3 hrs Knock

MrSkinner ___________ 4.6 _ 13.8 _ --7.0 _ 086 _ 100 ____ 4.5 hrs Dublin

mickger844posts ______4.2 _ 14.8 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 5.3 hrs Johnstown Castle

sryanbruen __________ 4.2 _ 14.1 _ --9.0 _ 085 _ 125 ____ 4.3 hrs Belmullet

BLIZZARD7 __________ 3.2 _ 14.1 _ -13.1 _ 085 _ 125 ____ 5.3 hrs Knock

M.T. Cranium _________2.9 _ 13.7 _ -10.1 _ 050 _ 200 ____ 6.7 hrs Belmullet

_________________________________________________________________

M.T. Cranium

The above scoring table and the data are now confirmed by the late-appearing Monthly Summary (thanks to met.ie who probably had more urgent tasks in recent days) ...

So we can now look at the first edition of Annual Scoring for 2018 and sort out the Four Seasons points for Winter 2017-18.

The table shows both of these contest updates in one combined set, the rank order is for annual (Jan-Feb) and the winter seasonal totals including last December are therefore not quite in that same order. Points for the four seasons contest are 10 for first, 7 for second, and so on down to 2 for seventh place, and 1 point to each of 8th, 9th and 10th place. NormaL and Con Sensus receive points but these do not change the distribution of points to lower scoring forecasters.

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 ____________ Four Seasons contest (winter)

rank _FORECASTER ______ JAN _ FEB __ TOTAL ____ (Dec 2017) __ (winter total) __ pts

01 _mickger844posts ______75 __ 77 ____ 152 ______ 51 ________ 203 _______ 4

(02) Con Sensus __________73 __ 67 ____ 140 ______ 66 ________ 206 ______(4)

02 _Dacogawa ___________ 71 __ 67 ____ 138 ______ 69 ________ 207 _______ 5
03 _MrSkinner ___________ 73 __ 64 ____ 137 ______ 65 ________ 202 _______ 3
04 _Jpmarn _____________ 71 __ 61 ____ 132 ______ 86 ________ 218 _______10
t05_Tae laidir ____________78 __ 53 ____ 131 ______ 84 ________ 215 _______ 7
t05_Pauldry______________73 __ 58 ____ 131 ______ 79 ________ 210 _______ 6
07 _Rikand ______________66 __ 64 ____ 130 ______ 46 ________ 176 _______ 1
08 _sryanbruen __________ 56 __ 71 ____ 127 ______ 43 ________ 170 _______ --

(08) NormaL _____________75 __ 52 ____ 127 ______ 90 ________ 217 ______ (7)

09 _DOCARCH ___________ 63 __ 62 ____ 125 ______ 47 ________ 172 ______ --
10 _sunflower3 ___________68 __ 56 ____ 124 ______ 69 ________ 193 ______ 2
t11 _waterways __________ 81 __ 34 ____ 115 ______ 53 ________ 168 ______ --
t11 _Kindred Spirit. ________59 __ 56 _____115 ______ 65 ________ 180 ______ 1
13 _Bsal _________________63 __ 49 ____ 112 ______ 49 ________ 161 ______ --
14 _dasa29 ______________ 69 __ 40 ____ 109 ______ 54 ________ 163 ______ --
t15 _Lumi _______________ 54 __ 54 ____ 108 ______ 53 ________ 161 ______ --
t15 _Rameire _____________52 __ 56 ____ 108 ______ 50 ________ 158 ______ --
t17 _john mac ____________48 __ 58 ____ 106 ______ 73 ________ 179 ______ 1
t17 _sdanseo _____________45 __ 61 ____ 106 ______ 51 ________ 157 ______ --
t17 _JCXBXC _____________ 34 __ 72 ____ 106 ______ 61 ________ 167 ______ --
20 _M.T. Cranium _________ 60 __ 45 ____ 105 ______ 53 ________ 158 ______ --
21 _200motels ____________36 __ 65 ____ 101 ______ 54 ________ 155 ______ --
22 _BLIZZARD7 ___________27 __ 73 ____ 100 ______ 30 ________ 130 ______ --
23 _Joe Public ____________ 35 __ 62 ____ 097 ______ 49 ________ 146 ______ --
________________________________________________________________

It's good that we have 23 regulars now who participated in each of the three months.

Congrats to Mickger844posts for opening up a slight lead on Con Sensus and the rest of the top scorers, second at the moment goes to Dacogawa just ahead of third place MrSkinner.

In the winter four seasons, JPmarn held on to top spot after a high (human) score in December, and earns 10 points, along with NormaL who did roughly the same without any effort but lost out by one point (so is awarded 7 for second). Actual (human) second place was Tae laidir with third place to Pauldry. These points start off our "four seasons" contest.