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Boards weather forecast contest Feb 2018

  • 29-01-2018 4:26am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    If you happen to be unfamiliar with our contests, scroll down the menu to the January thread, more details there.

    1. Predict the IMT for February (1981-2010 average is 5.3 C)

    2. Predict the MAX

    3. Predict the MIN

    4. Predict the PRC (% of normal)

    5. Predict the SUN (% of normal)

    6. BONUS: On 14th, where will the sun shine most and for how long?

    One valid answer would be 0.0 hours all locations

    Otherwise, predict an amount in hours (and tenths) and a location from this menu of recording staitons -- Belmullet, Malin Head, Gurteen, Knock, Casement, Dublin, Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia, Shannon

    Any station that manages more than 5 hours will count as a correct answer, if the amount is 0.1 to 4.9 hours your location score will be 3 if correct, 2 if you guess the second highest and 1 if the third highest.

    (that leaves seven points for your amount prediction -- 10 is about the max possible)

    Deadline without late penalties will be 0300h Thursday 1st of February.

    As regulars here know, I am taking a bit of a vacation from forecasting this week and I won't be around to look in much on this thread, perhaps some of you can keep an eye on responses and get in touch with any new entrants who might be unfamiliar with our contest format (if you see entries you suspect to be misdirected to the actual questions). Thanks and good luck.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _________ 4.2 __ 14.1 __ -9.0 __ 85 __ 125 __ 4.3 hrs Belmullet

    EDITED: :D

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC _________ 5.0 __ 15.1 __ -5.5 __ 90 __ 120 __ 3.1hrs Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    sunflower3 _________ 5.5 __ 15.2 __ -6.5 __ 90 __ 100 __ 3.5 hrs Johnstown Castle


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal_________ 5.3 __ 15.5 __ -5.0 __ 110 __ 99 __ 3.7 hrs Casement


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac _________ 5.4 __ 14.5 __ -5.0 __ 110 __ 97 __ 3.3 hrs Belmullet


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    sryanbruen _________ 5.9 __ 14.1 __ -7.0 __ 120 __ 110 __ 4.3 hrs Belmullet

    The IMT and precipitation by the way is not what I expect it to now, they're just the values I had inputted for February in the Winter forecast contest.

    Sometimes you gotta realise you're onto a loser and treat each contest as a separate entity ;)


    Rikand ___ 5.5 ___ 14.5 ___ -6.5 ___ 90 ___ 120 ___ 5.0 hrs Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public_______ 4.9 __ 14.9 __ -6.9 __ 90 __ 110 __ 4.9 hrs Malin Head

    Have a good break M.T.C. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,466 Lumi


    Lumi _________ 5.4 __ 15.1 __ -6.3 __ 105 __ 96 __ 3.7 hrs Valentia


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn_______ 4.8 __ 14.5 __ -7.5 __ 75 __ 115 __ 4.5 hrs Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_________ 5.4 __ 14.8__ -5.5__ 104__ 100 __ 5.4 hrs Casement


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  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ________ 5.3 ___ 15.6 ___ -5.1 ___ 88 ___ 105 ___ Casement 4.5


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _________ 5.1 __ 13.5 __ -4.0 __ 115 __ 95 __ 5.5 hrs Belmullet


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _________ 4.7 __ 15.0 __ -6.2 __ 111 __ 105 __ 4.8hrs Oak Park


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ______ 5.6 __ 14.7 __ -6.1 __ 110 __ 96 __ 1.5 hrs Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 621 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    John mac wrote: »
    john mac _________ 5.4 __ 14.5 __ -5.0 __ 110 __ 07 __ 3.3 hrs Belmullet

    Looks like you're going for an extremely dull month, John.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels 5.1 __ 14.6__ -5.9__ 109__ 108 __ 5.1 hrs Casement


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _________ 4.9 __ 13.1 __ -6.2 __ 88 __ 98 __ 4.3 hrs Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    ahhhh , should be 97 for sun not 7 ... :D

    can you amend my entry please ..
    Thanks for the reminders//


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa__ 4.7 __ 14.0__ -6.9__ 90__ 105 __ 5.3 hrs Knock


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _________ 4.2 __ 14.8 __ -6.0 __ 90 __ 110 __ 5.3 hrs Johnstown Castle


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7 _________ 3.2c __ 14.1 __ -13.1 __ 85 __ 125 __ 5.3 hrs Knock


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner______4.6_____13.8_____-7.0_____86_____100_____4.5 Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I see Johnmac clarified his sunshine ...

    Here's what I want, what I really really want ...

    M.T. Cranium ______ 2.9 _ 13.7 _ --10.1 _ 050 _ 200 _ 6.7 h Belmullet

    For 200% sun we're going to need 4.6h a day on the average ... scram clouds.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for February 2018

    This is what I see so far, expecting a few more, will edit them in if possible or just repost the table.

    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 14th, loc'n

    Tae laidir ____________5.6 _ 14.7 _ --6.1 _ 110 _ 096 ____ 1.5 hrs Cork

    sunflower3 __________ 5.5 _ 15.2 _ --6.5 _ 090 _ 100 ____ 3.5 hrs Johnstown Castle

    Rikand ______________5.5 _ 14.5 _ --6.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 5.0 hrs Valentia

    Lumi _______________ 5.4 _ 15.1 _ --6.3 _ 105 _ 096 ____ 3.7 hrs Valentia

    Pauldry _____________ 5.4 _ 14.8_ --5.5 _ 104 _ 100 ____ 5.4 hrs Casement

    john mac ____________5.4 _ 14.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 097 ____ 3.3 hrs Belmullet

    waterways ____ (-5) __ 5.3 _ 16.0 _ --9.0 _ 087 _ 110 ____ 2.0 hrs Cork

    Kindred Spirit _________5.3 _ 15.6 _ --5.1 _ 088 _ 105 ____ 4.5 hrs Casement

    Bsal ________________ 5.3 _ 15.5 _ --5.0 _ 110 _ 099 ____ 3.7 hrs Casement


    ___ NormaL __________5.3 _ 15.0 _ --7.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0 hrs (loc'n based on normals)


    Rameire _____ (-2) ____5.1 _ 15.5 _ --6.0 _ 103 _ 104 ____ 2.5 hrs (Valentia)

    200motels ___________ 5.1 _ 14.6 _ --5.9 _ 109 _ 108 ____ 5.1 hrs Casement

    Dasa29 ______________5.1 _ 13.5 _ --4.0 _ 115 _ 095 ____ 5.5 hrs Belmullet


    ___ Con Sensus _______ 5.1 _ 14.8 _ --6.2 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 4.5 hrs _ 3 Belmullet, 2 Cas or JC, 1 Val


    JCXBXC _____________ 5.0 _ 15.1 _ --5.5 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 3.1 hrs Oak Park*

    Joe Public ____________4.9 _ 14.9 _ --6.9 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 4.9 hrs Malin Head

    DOCARCH ___________ 4.9 _ 13.1 _ --6.2 _ 088 _ 098 ____ 4.3 hrs Cork

    Jpmarn _____________ 4.8 _ 14.5 _ --7.5 _ 075 _ 115 ____ 4.5 hrs Belmullet

    sdanseo _____________4.7 _ 15.0 _ --6.2 _ 111 _ 105 ____ 4.8 hrs Johnstown Castle

    Dacogawa ___________ 4.7 _ 14.0 _ --6.9 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 5.3 hrs Knock

    MrSkinner ___________ 4.6 _ 13.8 _ --7.0 _ 086 _ 100 ____ 4.5 hrs Dublin

    mickger844posts ______4.2 _ 14.8 _ --6.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 5.3 hrs Johnstown Castle

    sryanbruen __________ 4.2 _ 14.1 _ --9.0 _ 085 _ 125 ____ 4.3 hrs Belmullet

    BLIZZARD7 __________ 3.2 _ 14.1 _ -13.1 _ 085 _ 125 ____ 5.3 hrs Knock

    M.T. Cranium _________2.9 _ 13.7 _ -10.1 _ 050 _ 200 ____ 6.7 hrs Belmullet

    _________________________________________________________________

    * Oak Park does not record sunshine so these will be converted to Johnstown Castle or whatever the posters prefer (up to end of 2nd). Sdanseo accepted Johnstown Castle as shown now.

    Normal max sunshine based on 25% more than any station's average to account for random variation.

    Normal's location will be scored on the basis of average sunshine hours at these locations. Normal scores higher if the sunnier locations win out. Con Sensus location is scored as shown in the table.

    Our choices for location of maximum sunshine included 7 for Belmullet, 4 for each of Casement and JC, and 3 for Valentia, 2 for Cork, then 1 each for Malin Head, Knock and Dublin. Shannon and Gurteen were not picked by any of our 23 forecasters.

    Con Sensus is median, 12th ranked forecast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    I see Johnmac clarified his sunshine ...

    Here's what I want, what I really really want ...

    M.T. Cranium ______ 2.9 _ 13.7 _ --10.1 _ 050 _ 200 _ 6.7 h Belmullet

    For 200% sun we're going to need 4.6h a day on the average ... scram clouds.

    Yes please! :)

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,755 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire_________ 5.1 __ 15.5 __ -6.0 __ 103 __ 104 __ 2.5 hrs Valentia
    apologies for the lateness


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    * Oak Park does not record sunshine so these will be converted to Johnstown Castle or whatever the posters prefer (up to end of 2nd).

    Oops! Johnstown it is then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways __________5.3 _ 16.0 _ --9.0 _ 87 _ 110 ____ 2.0 hrs Cork


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,184 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    I think the regulars have all posted now and the table of entries above is edited to show late entries. Our group consensus is for a somewhat colder and drier month than average with a bit more sunshine. Some of us have taken that to quite a higher level.

    Good luck everyone. January scoring will appear tomorrow, I hope.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Great to have a February twice as sunny as normal. Its a given isnt it?😀


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