Cold Spell Phase 1 Discussion from 6th/7th January

arctictree · 02-01-2018 9:38pm #1

OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.

Billcarson · 02-01-2018 9:45pm

Don't want to get ahead of myself but any snow that settles Fri/ sat could hang around for awhile.

Donegal Storm · 02-01-2018 9:49pm

arctictree wrote: »

OK, who's going to start the thread? Fri/Sat looks very cold and snowy for the east on all models.

Looking colder but not snowy, there's a brief window on Saturday before the airmass stabilises and pressure rises but temps will likely be too high during the day for any worthwhile snow accumulation.

After that high pressure looks like taking over so likely cold and sunny with maybe coastal flurries.

All subject to change obviously but that's what it looks like at the minute

Billcarson · 02-01-2018 10:03pm

Imo looks like a 24 HR window for snow,Fri evening- sat evening. I would think it should be cold enough for snow accumulation during the day on Saturday imo. Not that im expecting to be buried in it or anything. But a ne wind in Jan should deliver something to the east.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-01-2018 10:03pm

By popular demand.

I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

Severe frost and icy stretches also.

*I'll update OP with charts shortly

More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated

Rebelbrowser · 02-01-2018 11:34pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

By popular demand.

I think we need to split discussion as there is too much uncertainty for early next week.

There will probably be a drier phase 2. There may not be a phase 3.

Very cold Sat/Sun with some snow and graupel showers in the east on Sat night and into Sunday.

Severe frost and icy stretches also.

*I'll update OP with charts shortly

More as we get it. The "beast in the east", Georgie Sunsnow, will keep you all updated

Am I right in thinking that on Fri night / Sat morning the band of precipitation to the SW could give a few of us down here a nice start to this spell (before attention turns to the east coast)?

MJohnston · 02-01-2018 11:38pm

I'm ready:

vistafinder · 02-01-2018 11:59pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm ready:

The one on the left will be gone when the ECM switches to the GFS after the morning runs and the item on the right will be on ebay by breakfast time.

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 12:03am

There’s lots of interesting cold flavored weather POTENTIAL dangled in front of us possibly in the next fortnight
Best approach is to baby step it as models aren’t good at tying down details this far out,or even closer(as we saw again tonight) the position of anything is uncertain
The upcoming fortnight should pique interest though,a little excitement and hopefully a lot?
As I said in the FI thread a few days ago,an initial northeasterly just about has enough cold this weekend to pep wintry showers in the east
Missing ingredient is locked in cold over the UK which would help with a surface air cold feed
Whipping up too much Sea in a strong wind tends to wash out snow and you end up at the coast with sleet or hail

Against that The source at the w/end is a lower humidity lower dew point feed usually and A less modifiable track than what we get in off the Atlantic

The missing ingredients may come if this pattern change is sustained
I’d prefer more northeasterly air (rather than the likely easterly)but our high if the ECM is right wants to bring us something Ukrainian or Russian
Part 2 is the wait for that cold air to advect west and what it interacts with when it gets here
It’s not unusual in long fetch easterlies to eventually have disturbances later come out of the Baltic’s somewhere and head west
We can’t say that’s what we’ll have
There may be false starts
I’d be surprised if there’s nothing out of this but obviously that’s possible but it’s not my hunch
All to play for
Comment away

rooney30 · 03-01-2018 12:24am

Beast Beast Beast

mikeecho · 03-01-2018 1:16am

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm ready:

After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now

Rougies · 03-01-2018 2:02am

mikeecho wrote: »

After the scotch, your legs won't work, so you can just dump the show spikes right now

show shpikes, feckin show hashna shance agansh me shpikes

ZX7R · 03-01-2018 2:09am

MJohnston wrote: »

I'm ready:

Got a slimmer set in dunes stores in 2010,just after the big freeze ended, never got to use them, on a positive side I was in dunes stores a month or two later and they had a basket full of them for less than a euro each, bought the lot and sent them to the in-laws in Poland

BLIZZARD7 · 03-01-2018 5:22am

Day 4 - UKMO

UN96-7.GIF?03-05

Pa ElGrande · 03-01-2018 7:23am

earth.nullschool 05/01/2018

earth.nullschool 06/01/2018

earth.nullschool 07/01/2018

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 8:22am

Just a word on phase 2
Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
That part is FI of course but trend is friend

Rebelbrowser · 03-01-2018 8:25am

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Just a word on phase 2
Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
That part is FI of course but trend is friend

Looks like phase 1 is a thing of nothing on this mornings ecm however.....

sparrowcar · 03-01-2018 2:06pm

Very quiet here, major downgrades or post Eleanor hangover?

pistolpetes11 · 03-01-2018 2:10pm

sparrowcar wrote: »

Very quiet here, major downgrades or post Eleanor hangover?

Waiting for the evenings model output , as you were from most of the models this morning , this should start to change this evening

Nettle Soup · 03-01-2018 2:44pm

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Just a word on phase 2
Ecm has that on target still too even more so this morning
Day 10 for instance has that cold air advection I spoke about last night firmly in place and a pressure pattern and fetch that would make for a snowy Dublin
That part is FI of course but trend is friend

What do you mean by Day 10 exactly? January 10th or is there another start date for this event?

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 2:56pm

Nettle Soup wrote: »

What do you mean by Day 10 exactly? January 10th or is there another start date for this event?

I mean day 10 of a particular nwp run,which on the following days runs should be day 9 and so on if all was going to plan
Anything beyond day 4 is low reliability

Larbre34 · 03-01-2018 3:05pm

When it comes to wintry spells and Ireland, I learned the lesson long ago that anything beyond +36 is low reliability.

pauldry · 03-01-2018 3:32pm

When it comes to Winter and ireland Ive learned that Storms = Reliable, Rain = Reliable, Snow = Gold

Kermit.de.frog · 03-01-2018 3:43pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Waiting for the evenings model output , as you were from most of the models this morning , this should start to change this evening

Overall the models this morning are positive for a longer colder period of weather mostly continental dominated.

How long and how cold are yet to be determined.

However, very cold over the weekend and that's nailed. Some wintry showers in the east Saturday night and Sunday.

Very cold inland over night as well. Temperatures well below freezing.

A different type of air mass in a mainly east/southeast wind than we have been use to so far this winter for next week, drier and colder.

Kermit.de.frog · 03-01-2018 4:24pm

Would someone mind posting relevant charts from the 12 pm models later? - I won't be around.

Thanks.

George Sunsnow · 03-01-2018 5:34pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Would someone mind posting relevant charts from the 12 pm models later? - I won't be around.

Thanks.

Party’s over ,the long fetch easterly won’t be around later either according to the 12z UKMO
Cold this weekend but rainy showers
No snow except high ground and not much there either
I’ve enough sense not to follow this any further regardless of what the ecm shows
UKMO wants to barrel the N America energy into Ireland now not Southeast