Potential Stormy Conditions 21st-23rd May

Iancar29 · 21-05-2011 4:08pm #1

While waiting to leave the hotel here In Dallas I Noticed the warning from MT and Met Eireann .

MT: TONIGHT ... (alert) Becoming very windy with further rain or squally showers, winds SW 35-55 mph but gusts to 65 mph in Connacht and some parts of west Munster (and 75 mph on high summits) ... risk of some local wind damage especially near hills ... lows near 8 C but feeling very cold where exposed to the wind. Further rainfalls 5-10 mms.

SUNDAY ... Strong winds abating mid-morning, veering to westerly 40-60 mph briefly then settling in at 30-45 mph much of the day, with a lot of cloud left over, some light rain or drizzle becoming confined to northern counties by afternoon, and late day clearing for a few hours. Highs 12-14 C and feeling quite chilly.

Met Éireann : Preliminary Advisory issued at 12 hrs Sat 21/05/11
A period of extremely windy or stormy weather is expected to develop overnight Sunday and prevail for much of Monday with some very severe and squally winds through parts of Connacht, Ulster and possibly North Leinster, some gusts of over 120 km/hr possible in exposed places.

So there could be bad driving conditions ahead and oter general disruption across effected areas.

Please continue disscusions an reports here.

Ps: Hope I don't miss anything ! Ha

Local forecast : Some thunderstorms popping up from here up to NE Texas. Looking good later for a light show . Will post updates in Tornado Season thread.

M.T. Cranium · 21-05-2011 7:44pm

Models are also upgrading the potential for strong winds on Monday (23rd) with a second low that looks 10-15 knots stronger than tonight's wind event.

Currently predicting maximum gusts for lower elevations in Ireland of 55 kts (or about 65 mph) tonight and 70 kts (or about 80 mph) on Monday and in both cases that is likely to be observed at Belmullet and/or Mace Head.

Ian if you have a chance would appreciate if you could change your thread title to reflect this second event (adding "and Monday 23rd").

Chicken1 · 21-05-2011 8:16pm

Hi MT President Obama is due to land in Dublin Airport at 9.30 am Monday morning would those winds cause a problem for him maybe he might have to divert????

Storm 10 · 21-05-2011 8:26pm

Chicken1 wrote: »

Hi MT President Obama is due to land in Dublin Airport at 9.30 am Monday morning would those winds cause a problem for him maybe he might have to divert????

I am not sure what the wind restrications are for Air Force 1 but if it gets as bad as they are saying it could be a problem for them, Interesting few days ahead for the West Coast with that forecast from MT.:D:D

thetonynator · 21-05-2011 9:09pm

Chicken1 wrote: »

Hi MT President Obama is due to land in Dublin Airport at 9.30 am Monday morning would those winds cause a problem for him maybe he might have to divert????

I heard that if the weathers bad he won't be able to get a helicopter to Moneygall, and it would take too long by car, so he might just be in Dublin.

Deep Easterly · 21-05-2011 10:09pm

Current prognosis for Monday's potential:

North coast to bear brunt but very gusty elsewhere as well. GFS seems to want to cull the strongest of the winds by Monday afternoon but UKMO & ECMWF have winds peaking by then. One to watch.

Su Campu · 21-05-2011 10:13pm

Winds Monday morning look like they'll be swinging from SSW to westerly during the morning, with them right between Runways 16 and 28, or around 60° off each at the time he's to land, therefore max crosswind component. The crosswind limits for a 747 are in the region of around 35-40 knots, depending on a dry or wet runway. With winds gusting maybe over 40 knots, it ill be interesting to keep an eye on it.

Of course the limits for Air Force One may be different, so we'll have to wait and see.

nilhg · 21-05-2011 10:20pm

Well 3 Chinooks and 2 others (black hawks?) went over my head yesterday evening, heading in the general direction of Moneygall, I wonder how they would handle strong (gale force+) winds?

Pangea · 22-05-2011 1:57am

lol Just got a lorry load to take away the trees from the last storm, this should be interesting.

Harps · 22-05-2011 2:38am

I'm supposed to be getting a ferry on the west coast on Monday, seem to be cursed with the weather every time I plan this journey :rolleyes:

Stuck for a week before Christmas because of the snow, same story the previous Christmas and last month I couldnt go because of the wildfires.

Should be an interesting day anyway, looks like we're going to get the worst of it in the north west

eskimocat · 22-05-2011 3:55am

Its gone from dead calm to breezy here in lovely Dromahair. Rain coming a bit stronger now too... could this be the beginning of our windy night???

Lumi · 22-05-2011 10:20am

Meteoalarm for tomorrow showing strong/severe winds in the West and Northwest with storms at sea

Meteoalarm-severeweatherwarningsforEurope-Mainpage2011-05-2210-12-51.jpg

Meteoalarm-severeweatherwarningsforEurope-Mainpage2011-05-2210-12-51.jpg

blacktalons · 22-05-2011 10:31am

leaving galway now

slight breeze blowing,nothing to get excited about just yet......

eskimocat · 22-05-2011 11:09am

nothing much here either, so far... tick toc tick toc.... Jeeese this is like waiting for a kettle to boil... ....taps fingers....

Heading to Donegal later this afternoon so will get the chance to be coastal.

redman · 22-05-2011 11:17am

heavy gusts in dublin

irish1967 · 22-05-2011 11:25am

eskimocat wrote: »

nothing much here either, so far... tick toc tick toc.... Jeeese this is like waiting for a kettle to boil... ....taps fingers....

Heading to Donegal later this afternoon so will get the chance to be coastal.

Not much happening up here either.... yet. Showery with moderate breeze. A little bit of blue sky and sunny spells in between.

Trogdor · 22-05-2011 11:38am

Was gusting up to 80km/h earlier and still some violent gusts now, anemometer and wind vane have just come down again after an especially strong gust there..currently recording wind speeds in the clothes line..:p

Lumi · 22-05-2011 12:09pm

Sat animation of the airmass associated with yesterdays wind and rain

Storm 10 · 22-05-2011 12:52pm

We got an unreal shower of rain here last night at around 10 pm the wind gusted to over 70mph with hail thunder and lightning. could not post as was away from pc.

Mayo Exile · 22-05-2011 1:06pm

Just after listening to the lunchtime weather forecast on RTE Radio 1. The sea area forecast is predicting winds up to force 11 along the NW and N coasts tomorrow morning. Alot of trees could come down in this with leaves out on most of them by now.

Mayo Exile · 22-05-2011 1:20pm

Tomorrow's unpleasantness beginning to wind up..........

Image at 0920 GMT.

maquiladora · 22-05-2011 2:13pm

Mayo Exile · 22-05-2011 2:30pm

Image at 1200 GMT. The "conveyer belt" continues behind the developing system right back to North America.

Birdnuts · 22-05-2011 2:38pm

Storm appears to have been upgraded on the 06Z GFS compared to earlier runs - mean speeds could approach violent Storm force in Belmullet tomorrow morning !!:eek:

irish1967 · 22-05-2011 4:15pm

I remember last day like this Iancar headed of to achill. Looks like he'll miss this one.

Wind steady building here. Could be a fun night.

Mayo Exile · 22-05-2011 4:43pm

At 3pm BST.

maquiladora · 22-05-2011 4:49pm

12Z GFS looks like a slight upgrade for stormy conditions on those exposed Galway/Mayo coastal areas tomorrow morning.

Met Eireann warning mentions gusts up to 140 kph.

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2011 6:39pm

Severe gusts may be more widely felt than some of the surface charts are suggesting, as the core of the jet stream will be over Shannon to Dublin at the peak of the event (expected to be 0900-1200h). However, Mayo and Donegal are definitely in the firing line for gusts of 70-80 knots in exposed locations. I expect we'll see maximum gusts in the 50-60 knot range across many other parts of the country.

While the maximum period should be 0900-1200, the very strong winds will be setting in around 0400-0600 on the outer west coast and 0600-0800 elsewhere.

The fact that this event peaks late morning and mid-day will be a factor in ramping up wind speeds as mixing will be most effective at that time of day. Last night's event, as well as being weaker, had to operate without the daytime stability profile breakdown.

Will be updating the forecast after checking the later models, but the GFS certainly shows strong development as the trough approaches Donegal Bay. I expect the actual distribution of isobars to be a little more smoothed from north to south in response to the jet. The GEM model is similar and indicates potential for 100-120 knot winds at 500 mbs over Ireland. Usually this is a sure-fire sign for severe wind gusts at the surface. Any convection with the fast-moving front, and there could be local tornadic wind streaks developing across the central and southeastern counties.

Sponge Bob · 22-05-2011 6:59pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The fact that this event peaks late morning and mid-day will be a factor in ramping up wind speeds as mixing will be most effective at that time of day. Last night's event, as well as being weaker, had to operate without the daytime stability profile breakdown.

Can you elaborate on this 'mixing' issue and daylight MT , if you have time. As in what mixes with what ??

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2011 7:15pm

Sponge Bob, just a reference to the factor that during the daytime hours, and particularly in the warmer half of the year, the thermal profile easily goes unstable (which is defined by the rate of temperature change above the surface, if it cools off more steeply than the average lapse rate, there is a greater tendency for air to mix vertically). This allows the stronger winds aloft (almost always the case) to mix down closer to or all the way to the surface especially around convective activity (shower clouds). This is why a forecaster will always be looking for the tightest jet stream gradient because quite often the strongest surface winds are found just about along the northern edge of that tight gradient aloft. I will try to post another comment on this during the storm using the Valentia sounding at 0600h.

mickger844posts · 22-05-2011 7:20pm

Mt Quote " Any convection with the fast-moving front, and there could be local tornadic wind streaks developing across the central and southeastern counties" Normally in Waterford we don't get the big winds that the West get but when you see a quote like that from MT it makes you wonder whats in store for the next 24hrs.

Mayo Exile · 22-05-2011 7:40pm

At 7pm BST.

redsteveireland · 22-05-2011 7:45pm

Gone dark here as the first of the cloud from this system arrives in the west. Here's hoping the trampoline is well secured!:D

Lumi · 22-05-2011 9:07pm

redsteveireland wrote: »

Gone dark here as the first of the cloud from this system arrives in the west.

Looks kinda pretty from above doesn't it

Image courtesy Met.no

je55ie · 22-05-2011 9:12pm

Fionagus wrote: »

Looks kinda pretty from above doesn't it

Image courtesy Met.no

looks fairly intense :eek:

dexter647 · 22-05-2011 9:21pm

Is it normal to see a system as intense as this at this time of year

emo72 · 22-05-2011 9:21pm

such a nice evening in dublin too. hard to believe its incoming. getting sick of this conveyor belt of bad weather.

Darwin · 22-05-2011 9:29pm

dexter647 wrote: »

Is it normal to see a system as intense as this at this time of year

I was wondering the same thing too. Usually storm systems such as these peter out around late March / early April but I'm open to correction

Nabber · 22-05-2011 10:37pm

It's all to quite at the moment

maquiladora · 22-05-2011 11:11pm

18Z GFS is another slight upgrade.

By the way, the name of this system is Udo.

There is a Red Meteoalarm warning for Donegal.

"Gusts of 110 to 140 km/h over land, southwest storm at sea."

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/index3.php?area=IE002&day=1&lang=

M.T. Cranium · 22-05-2011 11:32pm

As to the probability of seeing a storm this intense in May, I have estimated the probability of a 60 kt gust at Belmullet at least once in any month as follows:

JAN 70%
FEB 65%
MAR 70%
APR 55%
MAY 35%
JUN 20%
JUL 15%
AUG 30%
SEP 55%
OCT 65%
NOV 75%
DEC 70%

You could take about 5% off that for each 5 kt speed above 60kt.

Just a note here about observations, the M3 buoy has windspeed disabled, the current and past several hours showing 2 kts clearly bogus. the M6 buoy is currently in the slight gap between strong warm advection and strong cold advection and has lost a few knots but will pick up probably around 00z.

Satellite imagery showing the genesis now of the expected frontal shape which will be a reverse-C shape extending from the low centre southeast then south and southwest hooking through Ireland during the morning hours. The most active convection at present appears to be developing around 50 to 51 N at 20 W, heading ENE, so likely to cross southern half of Ireland between 0700h and 1200h.

Would advise readers in Kerry and Cork not to underestimate this storm as it may pack a double punch for both Connacht and Munster.

Harps · 22-05-2011 11:38pm

How does that meteoalarm site work? Is it through warnings submitted by each individual met office or is there a central office that decides on the warnings?

Just seems odd that we have a red alert yet Scotland only has yellow

On the storm, its been dead calm here all evening, I can hear a bit of wind out now since the rain arrived but nothing more than a breeze so far. Hard to believe theres a storm on the horizon

irish1967 · 22-05-2011 11:48pm

Same here Harps. Just a regular Sunday night. Most nights this past week have been worse at this time. Though, having said that, any increase in wind speed will be easily noticeable from this standing start. I expect to be woken up at some stage during the early hours.

John mac · 22-05-2011 11:50pm

lashing rain here and getting windy.

nacho libre · 22-05-2011 11:51pm

The wind is howling here now. It's definitely hard to imagine a storm is on the way given the time of year. I don't recall a storm in May before since my memory has been active.
So it'll be somewhat surreal if a tree happens to falls here in the next 12 hours.

23-05-2011 12:03am

John mac wrote: »

lashing rain here and getting windy.

location?

here in Dublin west seems ok right now

Update 00.15 - can hear the wind pick up every so often now nothing major yet

John mac · 23-05-2011 12:19am

location here

<<<

foxford

Tooshjr81 · 23-05-2011 12:38am

can anyone tell me what the wind situation will be around north wexford area tomorrow? I'm building a house in that area and don't quiet fancy fresh walls been blown down on top of me :eek:

Deep Easterly · 23-05-2011 12:48am

Raining here but only lightly (1.0mm since midnight) with a light 8mph mean wind speed from SSW.

1009.1mb falling rapidly.

IMBACKLATER · 23-05-2011 12:56am

starting to get very windy here on the coast in Mayo.

nacho libre · 23-05-2011 1:03am

Fairly blustery here now.

Potential Stormy Conditions 21st-23rd May

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