Saturday PM (10th) - Tuesday AM (13th), Snow and Ice

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2018 9:20am #1

Might as well get the ball rolling here so as to put the other thread to rest finally.

Potential hazards:

Ice
Snow
Low Temperatures

Areas most at Risk:

Ulster
Connaught
West Munster

During Saturday evening a much colder northwesterly airflow will become established over the country bringing heavy snow showers to primarily (but not exclusively) the western half of the country Saturday night and more widespread through Sunday with accumulations likely (finally some daytime snow

). Snow showers will continue in western and northern areas through Sunday night and Monday (occasionally some drifting to eastern parts).

On Monday evening rain moves in from the west and could turn to snow for many but, if not, particularly the northwest is at risk. It may also turn to snow more generally before moving in to the Irish sea later Monday night.

Keep an eye on this as any snowfall would be significant.

Cold throughout.

Night time temperatures will range 0 - -5c during Saturday, Sunday and the first part of Monday night. Temperatures during Sunday will also be very low - just above freezing generally but lower where snow lies.

This looks disruptive for the western half of the country and occasionally could be disruptive in eastern parts also especially Saturday night and in to Sunday.

Most of all enjoy it if you can :eek:

munsterlegend · 09-02-2018 10:11am

Is this as promising as last night in terms of cold enough uppers?

Kermit.de.frog · 09-02-2018 10:16am

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is this as promising as last night in terms of cold enough uppers?

Couple of degrees lower generally

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2018 11:57am

6z gfs precipitation chart for 6pm Sunday....

Think we are looking good for precipitation to be snow (see charts below), we just need the precipitation. As last night showed, Feb is the best time for westerly sourced snow as sea temps are so low so modification is minimised.

Uppers...

2m temps..

Rather spectacular dew points...

pad199207 · 09-02-2018 12:01pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

6z gfs precipitation chart for 6pm Sunday....

Think we are looking good for precipitation to be snow (see charts below), we just need the precipitation. As last night showed, Feb is the best time for westerly sourced snow as sea temps are so low so modification is minimised.

Uppers...

2m temps..

Rather spectacular dew points...

Usually if the temperatures are there it means that the precipitation isn’t there

munsterlegend · 09-02-2018 12:03pm

Are the winds strong to bring the showers inland? Hopefully a trough will develop.

Nettle Soup · 09-02-2018 12:06pm

You the man Kermit!

You gave me snow when pessimism reigned.

My hopes are high again.

Larbre34 · 09-02-2018 12:46pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are the winds strong to bring the showers inland? Hopefully a trough will develop.

That would be the gravy alright, nice bit of deep Greenland express contrast over the sea temps, could get a few beefy troughs.

pauldry · 09-02-2018 1:38pm

Even though i hate this cold isnt this a brilliant Winter for wintryness

Remember 2012 - 2017 when we used to fantasise about temperatures going below 10c ...in five days.

Now its non stop wintry showers with the odd day at 9c

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2018 2:16pm

pauldry wrote: »

Even though i hate this cold isnt this a brilliant Winter for wintryness

Remember 2012 - 2017 when we used to fantasise about temperatures going below 10c ...in five days.

Now its non stop wintry showers with the odd day at 9c

Absolutely. I don't think my area had charts as good as next Sunday more than once or twice in a reliable timeframe in the last 5 years. Now its just another chance at getting snow. We would have been on page 50 of this thread by now last year!

giveitholly · 09-02-2018 2:18pm

Yeah it has been a great winter for snow,nearly everyone has seen some fall,I know some people crave this beast from the east so hopefully it delivers for the east coast in the next few weeks

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2018 2:35pm

Euro 04 for Sunday morning....

Would be lovely to have a snowy day on a Sunday. I can play in the snow and pretend I'm only doing it for my kids......:)

downwiththatsor · 09-02-2018 2:52pm

giveitholly wrote: »

Yeah it has been a great winter for snow,nearly everyone has seen some fall,I know some people crave this beast from the east so hopefully it delivers for the east coast in the next few weeks

Nearly but not everyone has seen some fall I am afraid

So far that is

giveitholly · 09-02-2018 2:54pm

downwiththatsor wrote: »

Nearly but not everyone has seen some fall I am afraid
So far that is

Yeah hopefully that changes for you

pilly · 09-02-2018 3:27pm

giveitholly wrote: »

Yeah it has been a great winter for snow,nearly everyone has seen some fall,I know some people crave this beast from the east so hopefully it delivers for the east coast in the next few weeks

We have but I'd like to see a big deep snow that lasts a couple of days.

giveitholly · 09-02-2018 3:30pm

pilly wrote: »

We have but I'd like to see a big deep snow that lasts a couple of days.

I think everyone wouldðŸ˜‰

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2018 5:43pm

12Z Hirlam is good...

hirlamuk-1-42-0.png?09-17

Aperge just has rain but it had the same for last night.

Rebelbrowser · 09-02-2018 5:45pm

12z GFS good too (and it has been uncharacteristically reliable recently)...

Meteorite58 · 09-02-2018 9:04pm

Big cold airmass flooding in again from later Saturday through Sunday introducing wintry precipitation, most of which falling in the W, NW and Atlantic coastal counties it would seem. Fresh winds ( windy on coasts ) giving a a hefty windchill. It will be interesting seeing the potential for snow closer to the time. Thunderstorm potential again mostly along Atlantic coasts. Will be nice to see the showers of whatever falls

Pangea · 09-02-2018 9:22pm

pauldry wrote: »

Even though i hate this cold isnt this a brilliant Winter for wintryness

Remember 2012 - 2017 when we used to fantasise about temperatures going below 10c ...in five days.

Now its non stop wintry showers with the odd day at 9c

about time someone said it!

PukkaStukka · 09-02-2018 10:03pm

It's been a pretty nondescript winter here in Dublin with not much in the way of snow

munsterlegend · 09-02-2018 10:46pm

The forecast for Sunday on Met Eireann pretty underwhelming after the news. It will be very cold but snow showers confined to higher ground. Hopefully upgrades tomorrow.

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2018 11:13pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

The forecast for Sunday on Met Eireann pretty underwhelming after the news. It will be very cold but snow showers confined to higher ground. Hopefully upgrades tomorrow.

Why would you think Met Eireann know more than us?

typhoony · 09-02-2018 11:16pm

the thread should be changed to Sat 10th to Fri 16th, with only a brief incursion of mild air on Wednesday it does seem like February will be a below average temperature month

munsterlegend · 09-02-2018 11:27pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Why would you think Met Eireann know more than us?

What's your forecast then so we can compare Monday evening?!

Donegal Storm · 09-02-2018 11:38pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Why would you think Met Eireann know more than us?

Because they're a professional organisation full of qualified and experienced meteorologists with access to far more information than we have. You constantly complain about their forecasts in these threads then have nothing to say when the forecast is correct

Didn't see the forecast after the 9pm news but the earlier one with Jean Byrne mentioned a mix of hail, sleet and snow on Sunday. It looks pretty much like a repeat of what we've seen countless times already this winter, high ground and inland Ulster will likely get snow while most other areas will have a chance of a brief dusting

redsteveireland · 09-02-2018 11:40pm

PukkaStukka wrote: »

It's been a pretty nondescript winter here in Dublin with not much in the way of snow

Have you been up the mountains?

JanuarySnowstor · 09-02-2018 11:58pm

Okay here's why I complain about Met Eireann

1) They ramped up the snow event last week and most got nothing.
2) Last night most of Cork got a right pasting. Yet they didn't suggest the south was at decent risk even though uppers were -8
3) Their regional forecast yesterday by provence was exactly the same for all four yet it was very evident places exposed to the North West were most at risk. Unprofessional imo.
4) They seem to have most confidence in models like harmonie yet clearly models like gfs or ecm are superior.

I don't complain for the sake of it and am on record as congratulating them when they do call it right

King of Spades · 10-02-2018 12:04am

PukkaStukka wrote: »

It's been a pretty nondescript winter here in Dublin with not much in the way of snow

You’ve been unlucky. We’re only about 40 Kms northwest of you (albeit at 150 meters) and we’ve had snow cover 7 different times this winter, ranging from this morning’s dusting up to about 8cm on Jan 16th.

It’s been unusual to have so much cold weather and snow coming from the west. And more to arrive by the sounds of it.

Rebelbrowser · 10-02-2018 12:10am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Okay here's why I complain about Met Eireann

1) They ramped up the snow event last week and most got nothing.
2) Last night most of Cork got a right pasting. Yet they didn't suggest the south was at decent risk even though uppers were -8.....

Ah now! Most of us had a 1cm on cars and grass.

downwiththatsor · 10-02-2018 12:16am

In 1917 they had heavy snow on April the 2nd! All is not lost, its only February and charts dont look too shabby, Sunday 9am from latest Euro4

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 12:35am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Okay here's why I complain about Met Eireann

1) They ramped up the snow event last week and most got nothing.
2) Last night most of Cork got a right pasting. Yet they didn't suggest the south was at decent risk even though uppers were -8
3) Their regional forecast yesterday by provence was exactly the same for all four yet it was very evident places exposed to the North West were most at risk. Unprofessional imo.
4) They seem to have most confidence in models like harmonie yet clearly models like gfs or ecm are superior.

I don't complain for the sake of it and am on record as congratulating them when they do call it right

"Most of Cork" got a "right pasting"? Really? A right pasting? Based on what?

They do use the ECM. The GFS isn't worth a shíte.

Gaoth Laidir · 10-02-2018 12:37am

Not much snow showing up on the Harmonie anyway.

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/962103051229319168

pauldry · 10-02-2018 1:08am

Last night was the snowiest of the Winter so far for many parts of Co Sligo

3 inches in Calry (which is hilly)
2 inches near Tubbercurry

4 inches on Mountains

Its nice to live in a part of Ireland Met Eireann know nothing about due to lack of radar and non use of Sat24.

For Example
Sligo town had little or no snow but some of those rural spots had the same or even more than Decembers snow event

Hopefully Sunday will being something similar but im not as positive as Kermit about this one. Feel theres an Atlantic fightback going to occur soon

Happygosad33 · 10-02-2018 2:06am

@Gaoth. That run expires at 23.00 Sat. Is anyone really expecting anything before that? Early hours of Sunday before the cold really digs in. Could be some wintryness in the NW before midnight but wouldn't expect much if so.

patneve2 · 10-02-2018 3:39am

Think Sunday looks quite good for western and northern areas (more so northern areas due to better progged thicknesses/lower 500 hPa temps). Also, wouldn't be surprised if the east managed to steal a few rogue graupel/snow showers on Sunday due to the stronger sun keeping those showers going over land. Monday night still all up in the air. Could range from heavy snow to heavy rain to nothing at all so would monitor closely - obviously odds stacked against us as it's very hard to get a decent snowfall out of this type of set up (its a bit more likely in February though).

nacho libre · 10-02-2018 3:55am

pauldry wrote: »

Hopefully Sunday will being something similar but im not as positive as Kermit about this one. Feel theres an Atlantic fightback going to occur soon

If by Atlantic fightback you mean a sustained period of milder weather that is unlikely in the next two-three weeks- unless the Stratospheric Warming ends up being 2 out of the 3 that does not work in our favour and somehow manages to end the current pattern we have. I get the impression M.T. Cranium does not seem to be all that convinced that our weather will be coming from the east around the 19th of this month. It must be that he thinks the daughter vortex over Canada will still be strong enough to keep us in the current pattern of brief pulses of milder air alternating with polar maritime airflow

pistolpetes11 · 10-02-2018 4:19am

All the weather that is hitting you at the moment and giving snow for how ever long is coming from ............ the Atlantic

The Atlantic is not quite at all last few just happens it’s coming with more of a polar maritime flow

pauldry wrote: »

Last night was the snowiest of the Winter so far for many parts of Co Sligo

3 inches in Calry (which is hilly)
2 inches near Tubbercurry

4 inches on Mountains

Its nice to live in a part of Ireland Met Eireann know nothing about due to lack of radar and non use of Sat24.

For Example
Sligo town had little or no snow but some of those rural spots had the same or even more than Decembers snow event

Hopefully Sunday will being something similar but im not as positive as Kermit about this one. Feel theres an Atlantic fightback going to occur soon

Oscar Bravo · 10-02-2018 9:37am

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland

Later tonight and on Sunday, wintry showers will give accumulations of up to 3 cm of snow, with larger amounts on higher ground, especially in Ulster and Connacht.

Issued:

Saturday 10 February 2018 06:00

Valid:

Sunday 11 February 2018 00:01 to Sunday 11 February 2018 23:59

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 11:15am

The cold air ahead of the front for Monday night - but also that digging in behind continues to bring a risk of more persistent snowfall for a short time.

66-574UK.GIF?10-6

ICON also beginning to define this less of rain, more of sleet/snow...

Meanwhile for tonight - shortly after midnight a good bet for snow showers in the west - risk of snow in showers extending east not long after. Could be a dusting anywhere but a covering for many western and northwestern parts by morning.

sryanbruen · 10-02-2018 11:22am

downwiththatsor wrote: »

In 1917 they had heavy snow on April the 2nd! All is not lost, its only February and charts dont look too shabby, Sunday 9am from latest Euro4

How about blizzards on April 25th 1981?

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 11:42am

Snow showers packing in tomorrow.

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 12:02pm

Beginning to think an orange snow warning may be warranted for border counties and some western counties between tonight and Monday afternoon. 5 - 10 cms (locally more and on high ground) is very possible...

2 - 5 cms (locally more and on high ground) generally elsewhere through the period.

Anyway the fun starts in the early hours:D

Meteorite58 · 10-02-2018 12:22pm

I didn't think the Showers would penetrate as far inland as is being shown now on the models although some big differences in projecting accumulations but seems to be fairly good agreement in substantial snowfall all right in parts of the W, NW, N and as Kermit said across the border counties.

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 1:02pm

Why does that first model there always seem to think that showers originate inland?

Rebelbrowser · 10-02-2018 2:45pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Why does that first model there always seem to think that showers originate inland?

Perhaps Clare actually has a snow shield?

JCX BXC · 10-02-2018 2:50pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Perhaps Clare actually has a snow shield?

Haha I'd say so

Seriously though, that chart consistently seems to think showers don't start until they're inland, which isn't true at all!

Kermit.de.frog · 10-02-2018 5:09pm

Monday night looking more and more like a potential snowfall "event" for some for a time particularly the northwest.

GFS upping precipitation potential somewhat overnight now.

gerrybhoy · 10-02-2018 5:10pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Monday night looking more and more like a potential snowfall "event" for a time.

GFS upping precipitation potential overnight now.

Dublin looking at any Kermit?

Meteorite58 · 10-02-2018 5:24pm

HIRLAM's version of events to come, very cold uppers, quite fresh also giving a bitter windchill. Looks like we might be seeing some of the highest snowfall levels this winter from later tonight into tomorrow in the aforementioned areas.

JanuarySnowstor · 10-02-2018 5:35pm

Certainly an interesting few days ahead with many likely to see snow between tonight and Wednesday.

Long term I remain unconvinced that we will get the beast from the East. I think we will get a watered down version maybe with no decent bite.
Any proper cold looks to be over Canada rather than to our Northeast AND most importantly the clock ticks with every day getting longer

EDIT Actually scrap that the 12z gfs says BEAST!!

Saturday PM (10th) - Tuesday AM (13th), Snow and Ice

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