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Possibly turning much colder next week
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27-12-2011 7:58am#1
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From Sunday a polar maritime bias in the flow of weather is expected and this means frost and ice. Temperatures are likely to struggle around or below freezing at night and be very limited to low single figures by day which means frost and ice may be persistent through daylight hours. Showers, increasingly wintry, will also affect the country. This could be the start of a very prolonged cold spell of weather with snow increasingly likely. I will post in more detail with charts later today.
As with most of DM2's post about cold, a major health warning should be attached - emphasis on the word "could" noted. Looking at the 6am run of the GFS, there is no major cold forecast for Ireland right up to the 9th Jan 2012. Sorry to disappoint any cold lovers
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ha! If anything can be predicted in for foreseeable future its that the high pressure area that's been centred around Biscay will not be moved one way or the other.
No snow so?. can we expect rain?. I have some livestock out in the paddock that I might want to retrieve before Armageddon.0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »ECMWF chart for next Monday:
interesting looking trough east of Newfoundland.
Interesting looking trough indeed DE - if only we could nudge it slightly west so it sits just under Greenland and starts to build, we could be in for some decent action!
Simply put folks, we need the raging Atlantic with its west to east motion to stop If this pattern continues, we will get no easterlies and it will be game over - I am not very keen on cold north westerlies, which lets be honest, only deliver to the west and north of Ireland and even then its not the powder snow like we got in the East last year, its just wet Atlantic sleet/snow that does not tend to stick around. THE ATLANTIC JUST DOES NOT DELIVER SNOW-WISE.
However it is only the 27th December and I am willing to put my faith in MT's forecast of some decent cold from mid Jan onwards. Hopefully the models will start showing up some decent cold from around the 5th/6th Jan onwards - as this is a good 10 days we will have to agree with MT, patience is required!
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Just had a glance at the North Atlantic Pressure Chart and that high you point out does not appear at all and is instead replaced with a deep Low! :mad:
It would appear on these charts at least, that mild westerlies will continue to dominate right up to the 2nd January 2012.
http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=2&res=500&type=pressure&starttime=1324890000
I focused in on the trough east of Newfoundland D, which is not a high, and I agree with you that there looks to be a continuation of these insipid (if not necessarily mild all the time) westerlies for the foreseeable.
The tough showing up on this morning's ECMWF is of more interest to me, as it is in prime position to feed up some moist, warm air into the cooler polar air mass to the north:
Crap interpretation of what I mean:
I wasn't referring to potential cold, but more my hopes for potential cyclogenesis to flare up over the north Atlatntic for next week, but this is based on a chart in FI, and a FI chart that shows a vital, much needed upper trough too far west over northern Canada to help spur things on. In desperate times one must resort to desperate hope casting.
C'mon Atlantic, start kickin' some ass!! :mad:0 -
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Deep Easterly wrote: »I focused in on the trough east of Newfoundland D, which is not a high, and I agree with you that there looks to be a continuation of these insipid (if not necessarily mild all the time) westerlies for the foreseeable.
The tough showing up on this morning's ECMWF is of more interest to me, as it is in prime position to feed up some moist, warm air into the cooler polar air mass to the north:
Crap interpretation of what I mean:
I wasn't referring to potential cold, but more my hopes for potential cyclogenesis to flare up over the north Atlatntic for next week, but this is based on a chart in FI, and a FI chart that shows a vital, much needed upper trough too far west over northern Canada to help spur things on. In desperate times one must resort to desperate hope casting.
C'mon Atlantic, start kickin' some ass!! :mad:
Cheers for the clarification, DE - I misread the trough as a high! I am hoping that as we head into early January, the charts will start to show up some serious cold
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ECMWF ensemble for 10 days' time, showing a continuance of the westerlies. The low moves eastwards into the North Sea and northern Europe, but if there were a northerly dragged down behind it it would be shortlived. The troughs over northern Baffin Bay and Scandinavia are not what we want to be seeing for height rises to the north. From this chart it looks locked in for a while yet.
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12 GFS and UKMO are out for the important day 4. They show Ireland in a polar maritime flow but it's at risk of disruption by a deepening trough to the Southwest.
The 00z ECMWF maintains the polar maritime flow throughout and limits disruption of the flow allowing very cold air in the North Atlantic to get very close to and eventually over the country by Monday.
The key difference between the models right now appears to be the profile of the jet stream. Trough disruption may occur on the 12z GFS but a slight weakening of this streak across the Atlantic and slightly further South would see it much closer to the ECM for next week.
Best to wait for the 12z ECM and then see in more detail exactly what the situation is between the models. For the moment the GFS and UKMO are heading in the right direction for a colder outcome and less trough disruption.
GFS and UKMO @ 120hrs (Sunday).
GFS
UKMO
P.S I edited the thread title. It's not nailed on yet but is a good possibility.0 -
It's the wrong air source for true snowy cold darkman2.
Too much of a long Atlantic sea track making for sleety muck in populated coastal urban areas of the west.
Showers in flows like that would be weak/dying out past the midlands
so nothing to get too excited about (yet) folks even if it does pan out.
Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.
That said,those may evolve after we go through the sleety northwesterly set up you're describing first.
It's often a stepping stone synoptically to what we really want as cold snow fans and that is something similar to Dec 10 or January 10.
I'm hopeful in the MT camp still on that one,that something proper cold will have bedded in by mid to late January or by mid February at the latest.
We'll see 0 -
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It's the wrong air source for true snowy cold darkman2.
Too much of a long Atlantic sea track making for sleety muck in populated coastal urban areas of the west.
Showers in flows like that would be weak/dying out past the midlands
so nothing to get too excited about (yet) folks even if it does pan out.
Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.
That said,those may evolve after we go through the sleety northwesterly set up you're describing first.
It's often a stepping stone synoptically to what we really want as cold snow fans and that is something similar to Dec 10 or January 10.
I'm hopeful in the MT camp still on that one,that something proper cold will have bedded in by mid to late January or by mid February at the latest.
We'll see
I could not have said it better myself In terms of decent cold / snowfall, the north westerlies are not worth a f**k
Darkman2, you would be advised to read the above quoted post as it makes sense.
Now on the other hand Darkman2, if you were posting about a Scandi high which would bring strong winds in off a very cold continent, you might be onto something. But you are not saying this, you are basically stating that we are in for more of what happened in December, which on the East Coast was nought!
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Nothing you have shown in the charts above is anywhere near cold potential. I really don't see why the thread was started as it's looking like more of the same, just without this week's above normal temperatures. Nothing of note for the start of January, just the chance of some sleety showers on high ground at times and cooler nights.
It is not "more of the same". This issue comes up time and time again. Your difficulty is you are taking the charts post 120hrs at face value. I am not. The potential is there for a much colder period of weather in contrast to last week from next Monday. It does seem likely the first half of the week will see some irritating trough disruption of the flow for those who want persistent cold weather so we will see frosty nights and after rainfall icy patches and some wintry showers. We have not seen that for some time. That's the first change.
The second is far more significant and has consistently been flagged on the operational ECM runs over the past two days and that is the pulverisation and seperation of the polar vortex at the polar latitudes. This marks a really significant change in pattern for us if this is how things pan out.
Here is the pv today
Very flat. Zonal. Almost the worst possible setup for winter. No amplification of the jet stream and no significant blocking.
Here is the pv by the end of next week split.
Complete disruption and amplification of the pattern. The result is massive ejection of cold air south on the 4 sides the vortex remains. Blocking at polar latitudes and height increases mean terrific potential at that stage.
Of course that may change. But the signs are very good. Next week may get off to a colder if somewhat boring start, I agree. But my thoughts are it is only the start of a colder period overall. All I am suggesting is watch this space.
*edit: also to say and I refer to redsunset's stratospheric temperature thread. I wonder is this the first signal of the propagation of the recent stratospheric warming event to the surface layers of the atmosphere.0 -
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In all fairness, the ECM charts are encouraging for cold, and if that's to be the set-up by 6 Jan then look out because high-energy events occur between then and 9 Jan which would have to be some form of arctic frontal waves or polar lows in that pattern. Granted the GFS is stuck on drab zonality right through FI, so we have a fork in the road about 2-3 Jan.
The ECM charts would suggest daytime temperatures of about 2-4 C by end of period, cold enough for mixed wintry showers in warmer locations and all snow on hills. But I think much colder weather is probably going to require a stronger gradient and some hint of an easterly component, that might be more like 2-3 weeks out at present. 0 -
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I'm not looking at the charts, I just posted them to illustrate. The setup shows no signs of blocking, and the one you posted for the 6th shows a progressive pattern, with the high to the west building back in again. Of course it's going to be colder than last week as last week was almost record-breaking.
Which setup? I am trying to break next week in two to show you what I mean. If you are talking about Monday to Wednesday you are correct. We are relying on the so called "Greenland express". If, however, you mean the second half of next week I would not agree with that I have to say. Suppose the pv splits as forecast there is a very high likelyhood of some blocking emerging - now whether or not it is in the right place is a moot point really as it is too far out. The fact the pv may spilt can only possibly be good. That's defacto height rises in polar regions.Which is why this should be all in the FI thread. It only refers to next week.
It's only about next week (Monday - Sunday). I have not mentioned anything beyond next Friday.
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Mid Atlantic highs,Greenland highs or a super Scandinavian high are the better show in town.
We'll see
You may not be waiting too much longer;)
As for not "real" cold. -5c at 850hpa level is -5c whether it comes from Siberia or the North Atlantic. You just want the "beast from the east" because, well, you live in the east;)0 -
Which setup? I am trying to break next week in two to show you what I mean. If you are talking about Monday to Wednesday you are correct. We are relying on the so called "Greenland express". If, however, you mean the second half of next week I would not agree with that I have to say. Suppose the pv splits as forecast there is a very high likelyhood of some blocking emerging - now whether or not it is in the right place is a moot point really as it is too far out. The fact the pv may spilt can only possibly be good. That's defacto height rises in polar regions.
It's only about next week (Monday - Sunday). I have not mentioned anything beyond next Friday.
We'll see how this one plays out. For me we're not seeing anything worth getting excited over for the next 3 weeks, as MT has said.0 -
Sponge Bob wrote: »Amuse yourself by banning all the snow bunnies who encouraged him until the 31st of March and thereby making the forum a safer place O Mighty One!
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I could not have said it better myself In terms of decent cold / snowfall, the north westerlies are not worth a f**k
D
Derek, perhaps you meant to say north westerlies are not worth a **** for the east coast;) because north westerlies can in fact deliver decent snow fall to the west and northwest, especially in February.0 -
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!!!! 
This discussion has been closed.
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