Saturday / Sunday : snow-Ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2018 12:15pm #1

On Saturday morning a rouge warm front ahead of the real warm front for Sunday will attempt to make inroads in to the colder air. It will fall short over the country and slide southeast but in doing so it will bring snowfall for a time over the northern half of the country and there will be some accumulations before it clears eastward.

1 - 3 cm on lower ground, more with height.

Not a fan but just to illustrate.

On Sunday a more active system is likely to bring snowfall to west Ulster, rain for the rest of us.

Higher ground always the wrong place to be this weekend.

Alas, it is this system that heralds the end of this colder spell of weather and a temporary rise in temperatures along with southwesterly winds that could be strong at times thereafter for a good part of next week.

Mod Note : adding warning

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
A band of heavy rain will move up from the south on Saturday night. The rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it encounters the cold air with temporary accumulations possible. Snowfall accumulations will be highest in upland parts of Donegal. Any snow will turn back to rain later on Sunday morning as much milder air extends from the south.

Issued:Saturday 20 January 2018 11:00
Valid:Saturday 20 January 2018 23:00 to Sunday 21 January 2018 08:00

lolie · 19-01-2018 1:07pm

The Aperge is going for it turning to snow a nice bit of the country Sunday morning.
arpegeuk-42-47-0.png?19-12

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2018 1:18pm

I can always go one better

(for Saturday morning)

arpegeuk-1-25-0.png?19-12

Realistically it will be cold enough in general in the northern half of the country. For east coasts an onshore wind may ensure no snow for these parts.

Villain · 19-01-2018 2:56pm

Yes hiking tomorrow could be interesting, mind you the high res charts have no real intensity in it for Wicklow.

I think the flooding tomorrow night into Sunday will be a much bigger issue, that along with a quick thaw on higher ground could push some rivers over.

Danno · 19-01-2018 2:59pm

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155504258894209/

UK met office are keen on a bit of snow tonight for North Tipp, Laois, Offaly and Kildare.

Gonzo · 19-01-2018 3:12pm

This could be slightly similar to the recent snow event around the 11th of December where much of the midlands saw some snow. I don't think it will be as good as that but similar in that most of the east coast counties will see cold rain or sleet away from high ground. I wouldn't be very confident of snow within 45km of the Irish sea coastline, but we will see what happens. Sunday is likely to be double figures for most us away from parts of Ulster.

Donegal Storm · 19-01-2018 4:04pm

Elevation looks to be key going by the Arome, quite a widespread but patchy covering of snow tomorrow morning with hilly areas seeing most lying snow and no more than a dusting at lower levels. Cavan and Monaghan again the place to be it seems

highdef · 19-01-2018 4:31pm

Going by the above charts, I'm in a perfect location to test the accuracy of them.

I'm about 40km from the east coast and just south of the Kildare/Meath border. I'm in a fairly rural area. My house is at just under 90m ASL. There's a hill of just under 150m to my immediate north east and another hill just under 140m to my immediate south west.

It will be interesting although my gut feeling is falling snow but a slushy mess (if even sticking at all) but with a decent covering up on the c150m hill, which has its own microclimate.

cherryghost · 19-01-2018 5:30pm

There's still wiggle room here too, a shift north or south can keep/move the cool air mass and result in snow in other areas.

Periscal · 19-01-2018 6:50pm

cherryghost wrote: »

There's still wiggle room here too, a shift north or south can keep/move the cool air mass and result in snow in other areas.

Now ideally need wind to drop under clear night and allow the surface temps. to drop as much as possible,it is a pity about that 5 hour period of mild weather that thawed the snow on wednesday,otherwise we would experience albedo effect and better surface cooling in the proximity of wicklow mountains, here in west wicklow we can spring a surprise tomorrow AM, the wind is down to 2.2kph according to NRA and skies are clear,temp dropping nicely, dew point will be around 0.5deg I would reckon around here so need temps. to drop below 1, ideally around 0. it is a situation which has very low expectations and these can bring unexpected surprises.we shall see tomorrow 6AM

kerrycork13 · 19-01-2018 6:53pm

Currently 3.5 c in East kerry. 250 M asl. Cloudy

highdef · 19-01-2018 7:36pm

1.6 in North Kildare. Just home from work so will be interesting how much it falls this evening before the cloud arrives. With wind staying very light until mid morning, there'll be less mixing of air so in theory, the cold air in place overnight has a better chance of hanging about, this increasing the chance of snow. Obviously there are many other parameters, wet bulb temperature being one of the most important.

Villain · 19-01-2018 7:38pm

Down to 1.2c here in Tullow already

Meteorite58 · 19-01-2018 8:27pm

So rain for many with a chance of sleet and snow on the leading edge of the front more so over higher ground as it moves into colder air further North.

mm485F3.png?1

Big temperature difference over a short distance

Accumulations of snow

highdef · 19-01-2018 8:37pm

I'm beginning to gain a bit more interest into this possible event because it's looking like fairly calm conditions ahead of the front, in the cold sector. This will assist evaporative cooling of precipitation falling so cold air can be pulled down to ground level. Depending on where the warm/cold dividing line is, there could be quite an abrupt change between rain and snow. And as the front will then sink to the south East, many parts will remain in the cold sector until Saturday night.

Down to 0.9c now in North Kildare and it's still slowly falling. It's a calm night and I'm in a slight valley location so I'm likely to have fairly low temperatures tonight, once it stays clear. If I stay within the cold sector tomorrow morning, I would imagine snow could be a distinct possibility, or possibly even freezing rain.

Meteorite58 · 19-01-2018 9:05pm

Periscal · 19-01-2018 9:11pm

highdef wrote: »

I'm beginning to gain a bit more interest into this possible event because it's looking like fairly calm conditions ahead of the front, in the cold sector. This will assist evaporative cooling of precipitation falling so cold air can be pulled down to ground level. Depending on where the warm/cold dividing line is, there could be quite an abrupt change between rain and snow. And as the front will then sink to the south East, many parts will remain in the cold sector until Saturday night.

Down to 0.9c now in North Kildare and it's still slowly falling. It's a calm night and I'm in a slight valley location so I'm likely to have fairly low temperatures tonight, once it stays clear. If I stay within the cold sector tomorrow morning, I would imagine snow could be a distinct possibility, or possibly even freezing rain.[/QU

I have quite similar thoughts that we might spring a few surprises, it may come down to local orography where a hill in the way of a milder front might preserve some areas in cold sector, I have experienced times when no numerical model did forecast any snow and we had 2 hours of frontal event, it was February 2015 I think here in West Wicklow, likes of GFS or ECMWF have not enough resolution for Ireland to account for these orographic anomalies when it comes to small valleys around Wicklow mountains,for expample like Manor Kilbride,Donard,Hollywood,Valleymount or in Kildare likes of Kilteel or Ballymore Eustace

piplip87 · 19-01-2018 11:39pm

Met Eireann and Met UK have no warnings in place as of yet. Surely if this was happening there would be at least a yellow at this stage

highdef · 20-01-2018 12:29am

piplip87 wrote: »

Met Eireann and Met UK have no warnings in place as of yet. Surely if this was happening there would be at least a yellow at this stage

The weather front coming into Ireland may not even reach Northern Ireland and even if it does, not much precipitation is expected. Hence no warning from the the UK met office. Met Eireann use the Hirlam computer model and it does not foresee any disruptive snowfall in populated areas and indeed this could be the case.

pauldry · 20-01-2018 12:32am

Freezing here in Sligo. Ice on cars......again

Roads lethal outside town as black ice from rain earlier

piplip87 · 20-01-2018 12:45am

highdef wrote: »

The weather front coming into Ireland may not even reach Northern Ireland and even if it does, not much precipitation is expected. Hence no warning from the the UK met office. Met Eireann use the Hirlam computer model and it does not foresee any disruptive snowfall in populated areas and indeed this could be the case.

Thank you. I was reading the orginial post with this thread and was thinking snow tomorrow.
Hopefully another fall or two left in the winter yet

lolie · 20-01-2018 9:48am

Snowing a fair bit outside now.
Pity it started raining at 3 o'clock though.

George Sunsnow · 20-01-2018 9:56am

lolie wrote: »

Snowing a fair bit outside now.
Pity it started raining at 3 o'clock though.

Where?

pad199207 · 20-01-2018 10:01am

Wet snow early this morning but now moderate rain

lolie · 20-01-2018 10:02am

South Cavan George.

Rock Lesnar · 20-01-2018 10:04am

Raining for at least 4 hours here and now its turning to snow, north east meath

littlema · 20-01-2018 10:21am

I could repost yesterday's photo of snow today...... same amount on drive, but this time, no sunny intervals, just dark clouds gently snowing.
S Sligo asl 152 mtr

George Sunsnow · 20-01-2018 10:32am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Raining for at least 4 hours here and now its turning to snow, north east meath

Near lolie then
Very wet in Arklow and 4c
Looks like wet all day if what’s on the radar is to slide southeast

Front has certainly moved a lot further north than thought initially

Kermit.de.frog · 20-01-2018 10:37am

Increasingly sleet in last hour in North Dublin.

Within half a degree of all out snow.

Rock Lesnar · 20-01-2018 10:50am

Heavy snow now with huge flakes, ground turning white, shame this didnt happen when it started raining hours ago, on way to navan and its getting lighter.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-01-2018 10:52am

Some wet flakes now.

Impressive considering a slightly nagging north east breeze!

koutoubia · 20-01-2018 11:07am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Increasingly sleet in last hour in North Dublin.

Within half a degree of all out snow.

North County Dublin. Just south of Balbriggan.
Persistent heavy rain.
Lots of rain running down the gutters!
Quite mild as well.

highdef · 20-01-2018 11:11am

There must be a seriously sharp temperature gradient in place. 40km inland on the Meath/Kildare border, it's 2.2c and moderate rain. Quite windy too, windier than I was expecting.

Rock Lesnar · 20-01-2018 11:12am

Light rain in navan, hope its still snowing at home

power pants · 20-01-2018 11:38am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Some wet flakes now.

Impressive considering a slightly nagging north east breeze!

Finglas

Just rain here all morning

Gonzo · 20-01-2018 11:50am

was snowing when I woke up, then sleet and now rain. Some slush on the car windows.

Only 1C here, this was so close to being a snow event.

lolie · 20-01-2018 11:57am

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Near lolie then
Very wet in Arklow and 4c
Looks like wet all day if what’s on the radar is to slide southeast

Front has certainly moved a lot further north than thought initially

Judging from some of his posts I'd say he's a good 25 mile from here so not that close either.
It's annoying the the mobile and touch site don't show the locations.
That snow earlier turned to sleety rain and died out but it has started snowing again, not sticking though.

Gonzo · 20-01-2018 12:01pm

turning back towards snow here again.

esposito · 20-01-2018 12:04pm

Gonzo wrote: »

turning back towards snow here again.

Just can't make up its mind lol

highdef · 20-01-2018 12:06pm

Gonzo wrote: »

turning back towards snow here again.

And yet not a million miles from you, on the Meath/Kildare border, it's been rain only. Was 2.2c an hour ago. It's risen a half degree since then, currently at 2.7c. What's your temperature, Gonzo?

Gonzo · 20-01-2018 12:10pm

highdef wrote: »

And yet not a million miles from you, on the Meath/Kildare border, it's been rain only. Was 2.2c an hour ago. It's risen a half degree since then, currently at 2.7c. What's your temperature, Gonzo?

it's close to 2C. Still sleet here with some large flakes mixed in.

Double figures across much of the south and south-west of the country.

George Sunsnow · 20-01-2018 12:11pm

highdef wrote: »

And yet not a million miles from you, on the Meath/Kildare border, it's been rain only. Was 2.2c an hour ago. It's risen a half degree since then, currently at 2.7c. What's your temperature, Gonzo?

8c in Wexford town
4 c Arklow
2.7c bray

30 miles between each of those towns

Flat calm here in Arklow and raining
Not a leaf moving

DOCARCH · 20-01-2018 12:21pm

Ex-snow falling here in Dublin 16. A sleety/splodgy element to the rain (can see splodges on Velux). 3.6c atm.

Oscar Bravo · 20-01-2018 12:22pm

11am.
Huge range in temperature from south to north:

Sherkin 12 degrees
Knock 0

George Sunsnow · 20-01-2018 12:26pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

11am.
Huge range in temperature from south to north:

Sherkin 12 degrees
Knock 0

Rotten wet day here in Arklow as I said and the presenter on Beat 102 radio says ‘ nice day across the region blue skies sun shining’

Donegal Storm · 20-01-2018 12:32pm

highdef wrote: »

And yet not a million miles from you, on the Meath/Kildare border, it's been rain only. Was 2.2c an hour ago. It's risen a half degree since then, currently at 2.7c. What's your temperature, Gonzo?

And just down the road from you in Maynooth it was sleeting when I left a while ago, some big wet flakes splattering on the windscreen

lolie · 20-01-2018 12:35pm

I love snow as much as anyone but I'd take the blue skies and sun over what's falling here now.

Gonzo · 20-01-2018 12:55pm

front starting to clear here now, just light rain on the backedge. Still bitterly cold tho. Heat on full throughout the house.

Meteorite58 · 20-01-2018 1:09pm

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal
A band of heavy rain will move up from the south on Saturday night. The rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it encounters the cold air with temporary accumulations possible. Snowfall accumulations will be highest in upland parts of Donegal. Any snow will turn back to rain later on Sunday morning as much milder air extends from the south.

Issued:Saturday 20 January 2018 11:00
Valid:Saturday 20 January 2018 23:00 to Sunday 21 January 2018 08:00

dinorebel · 20-01-2018 1:10pm

Heading from Letterkenny to Belfast today anyone know what Glenshane Pass is like today.

Charles Babbage · 20-01-2018 3:04pm

dinorebel wrote: »

Heading from Letterkenny to Belfast today anyone know what Glenshane Pass is like today.

Surface temp +2.8
http://www.trafficweather.info/roadWeather/rwisMap.jsp

no issues here http://trafficwatchni.com/traffic-news

Saturday / Sunday : snow-Ice Warning for Cavan, Monaghan and Donegal

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