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Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    I'm not basing this on anything remotely scientific, just gut instinct and Murphy's Law, but is anyone else feeling that with the (horribly) negative NAO we've had for a huge amount of this summer, and indeed looking like going negative again next week with a substantial Greenie block (GFS) and at least above average heights (ECM), that knowing our luck it'll decide to go positive again just when the PV is getting underway and lock us in for a mundanely zonal final few months of 2019?? :D

    Obviously hope I'm wrong here, but it would be feckin' typical.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I'm not basing this on anything remotely scientific, just gut instinct and Murphy's Law, but is anyone else feeling that with the (horribly) negative NAO we've had for a huge amount of this summer, and indeed looking like going negative again next week with a substantial Greenie block (GFS) and at least above average heights (ECM), that knowing our luck it'll decide to go positive again just when the PV is getting underway and lock us in for a mundanely zonal final few months of 2019?? :D

    Obviously hope I'm wrong here, but it would be feckin' typical.

    Oh it's almost guaranteed to happen. I be shock if it doesn't happen. It happened a few years ago. It was negative all summer then in winter flipped to extremely positive. I expect that to happen again.

    That and a lobe of a PV moves to North America leaving up with Mild storms every few days.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Lucreto wrote: »
    Oh it's almost guaranteed to happen. I be shock if it doesn't happen. It happened a few years ago. It was negative all summer then in winter flipped to extremely positive. I expect that to happen again.

    That and a lobe of a PV moves to North America leaving up with Mild storms every few days.

    We didn't have a sniff of northern blocking with positive NAO throughout all of last winter then bingo, nothing but Northern blocking and a negative NAO for most of summer. The blocking and negative NAO took a break for the past few weeks but looks like it may be coming back, but for how long?

    I've a feeling this winter could be a typical mild Irish winter, just maybe not as excessively mild as last winter. Mild winters in Ireland don't come in pairs, they come in packs of 8 to 10.

    However the trend for the next few weeks is a definite cooling as we head towards the middle of Autumn. This mornings runs shows a steady decline in temperatures, however there are some outlying members showing some very cold runs getting down to 0 to -5C @850hpa, if those came off we could start to see our first proper frosts of the season during the first week of October. These cold uppers could also be cold enough to produce wintry showers over high ground in Scotland and Northern Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Gonzo wrote: »

    I've a feeling this winter could be a typical mild Irish winter, just maybe not as excessively mild as last winter. Mild winters in Ireland don't come in pairs, they come in packs of 8 to 10.

    .
    It would be a little too much to bear if we had a repeat of last winter's sh*t-fest. The older I get, the less I care about temperature as the main factor of winter or summer weather, but I do care about actual weather... or as in the case of winter 2018-2019, the lack of it. I enjoy turbulent weather in the winter because it is in contrast to summer, which rarely brings anything of note weather wise. It also gives me a greater sense of being in the season in that having a 'rough' winter makes you appreciate the more typical benigness of the following spring and summer season all the more.

    Regardless, my gut is telling me that we will see a more tumultuous winter this year as compared to last (which wouldn't be hard) with a good deal of De' Frog's 'snow watches' possible. My gut also tells me to expect to be bitterly disappointed, and regarding the latter gut feeling, it is rarely, ever wrong.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    90% sure we will have a mild winter with numerous storms and another mild Christmas period. NAO will go positive for the majority of winter (as it normally does) Obviously hope I am totallly wrong with this.

    I was just thinking yesterday, every rugby World Cup year in the autumn has been followed by a mild winter! Last one 2015 we all know it was exceptionally mild and unsettled winter. 2011 similar, 2007 similar. 2003 similar. I know it’s just a coincidence but it does not give me much hope!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    esposito wrote: »
    90% sure we will have a mild winter with numerous storms and another mild Christmas period. NAO will go positive for the majority of winter (as it normally does) Obviously hope I am totallly wrong with this.

    I was just thinking yesterday, every rugby World Cup year in the autumn has been followed by a mild winter! Last one 2015 we all know it was exceptionally mild and unsettled winter. 2011 similar, 2007 similar. 2003 similar. I know it’s just a coincidence but it does not give me much hope!

    Some long range models are going for a mild or exceptionally mild winter with an Atlantic south-westerly dominated winter. At this stage they are far too long away to be taken seriously and last winter's long range models went completely pear shaped. However it wouldn't surprise me if we end up with another mild or very mild winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    We are at solar min and are likely the only place in northern hemisphere that didn't get a brutal winter last year. I'm thinking this year we'll feel the cold.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    esposito wrote: »
    90% sure we will have a mild winter with numerous storms and another mild Christmas period. NAO will go positive for the majority of winter (as it normally does) Obviously hope I am totallly wrong with this.

    I was just thinking yesterday, every rugby World Cup year in the autumn has been followed by a mild winter! Last one 2015 we all know it was exceptionally mild and unsettled winter. 2011 similar, 2007 similar. 2003 similar. I know it’s just a coincidence but it does not give me much hope!

    On the flip side, all summers ending in "8" have been rubbish, then 2018 came along. Perhaps, old coincidences are coming to an end!


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    Mild wet Winter, the safest bet year in year out.

    Ye can lock the thread now lads. :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    Loughc wrote: »
    Mild wet Winter, the safest bet year in year out.

    Ye can lock the thread now lads. :pac:
    Definitely December anyway! Haven't the majority of Decembers in the last 10 years been above the LTA for Dec? We're due a colder than avg one soon hopefully :)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    There was a run of 3 consecutive colder than average Decembers from 2008 to 2010 but been mild since although 2014 and 2017 closer to average whilst 2015 and 2018 exceptionally mild. Due to December 2010 being so severe, I think we’re due a severe January or February more than December in my opinion. February 2018 ended severe but wasn’t a very exceptional month overall. January 2010 was very cold but second half was relatively milder so not a severe one overall.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Danno wrote: »
    On the flip side, all summers ending in "8" have been rubbish, then 2018 came along. Perhaps, old coincidences are coming to an end!

    Perhaps, perhaps. One hopes they do!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Been watching some preliminary winter forecasts for the States these last few days and the general consensus is that a ridge will set up in and around the SW'ern quarter, allowing cooler to spill into the eastern part which, more often than not, usually helps to activate the jet stream over the N.Atlantic. Let's just hope that if this was to happen that this potentially active jet stream does not end up near the Arctic circle, leaving Ireland under the eternal influence of a very active and stratus laden Azores high. :rolleyes:

    A worst case scenario example:

    NOAA_1_2012011018_1.png

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Been watching some preliminary winter forecasts for the States these last few days and the general consensus is that a ridge will set up in and around the SW'ern quarter, allowing cooler to spill into the eastern part which, more often than not, usually helps to activate the jet stream over the N.Atlantic. Let's just hope that if this was to happen that this potentially active jet stream does not end up near the Arctic circle, leaving Ireland under the eternal influence of a very active and stratus laden Azores high. :rolleyes:

    A worst case scenario example:

    NOAA_1_2012011018_1.png

    If we end up with yet another mild winter, I wouldn't mind this scenario. In winter I only like precipitation of the white gold variety. Nothing worse than months on end of cold rain and wind so i'd happily take quiet, dry and mild, if snow ends up in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Gonzo wrote: »
    If we end up with yet another mild winter, I wouldn't mind this scenario. In winter I only like precipitation of the white gold variety. Nothing worse than months on end of cold rain and wind so i'd happily take quiet, dry and mild, if snow ends up in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.

    A repeat of January this year it is for you so!

    A5bOM57.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Yup if we’re not going to get proper cold and snow well then mild suits me great!

    The in between is just depressing


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Most of our active weather in winter is of the mild type anyway.

    My three wishes for this winter coming:
    1. Lots of strong gales.
    2. Lots of thunder and hail storms.
    3. The odd frosty night for a dog walk or two.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Most of our active weather in winter is of the mild type anyway.

    My three wishes for this winter coming:
    1. Lots of strong gales.
    2. Lots of thunder and hail storms.
    3. The odd frosty night for a dog walk or two.

    You could get all the above in one day , during an Irish winter


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Most of our active weather in winter is of the mild type anyway.

    My three wishes for this winter coming:
    1. Lots of strong gales.
    2. Lots of thunder and hail storms.
    3. The odd frosty night for a dog walk or two.

    Have to strongly disagree with you here.
    Strong gales, no thanks.
    Lots of frosty mornings yes please.
    I doubt there will be lots of thunderstorms in winter but you never know.

    We most likely will get frequent strong gales so you should be satisfied there.

    In fact 2 of your 3 wishes will most likely come true.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Have to shake my head saying "if only it were December, or January" with this evening's GFS 12z for early to mid October.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Have to shake my head saying "if only it were December, or January" with this evening's GFS 12z for early to mid October.

    A carbon copy of last October so!

    And we all know what’s in store for us this December and January then.

    At least I won’t be disappointed this winter because I am expecting a typical Irish mild winter.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    esposito wrote: »
    A carbon copy of last October so!

    And we all know what’s in store for us this December and January then.

    At least I won’t be disappointed this winter because I am expecting a typical Irish mild winter.
    I haven't seen any charts but it doesn't sound like a carbon copy of early October to me, which was mild and sunny. Maybe you mean the late October northerly, which funnily enough brought among the coldest conditions of the autumn and winter and it wouldn't surprise me if it was the coldest spell but I don't think so.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    What a waste. Tragic!

    UN120-21.GIF?26-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    What a waste. Tragic!

    UN120-21.GIF?26-18

    If we were looking at that chart in winter that HP to the southwest would find a way to ruin cold potential for us!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Sadists showing that now:mad:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »

    Lucky sods.
    That's a place i've always wanted to visit. Thanks for the article. Regarding our winter, i hope the low solar activity plays a decisive factor this year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Lucky sods.
    That's a place i've always wanted to visit. Thanks for the article. Regarding our winter, i hope the low solar activity plays a decisive factor this year.

    One State I have always wanted to see to. and looking at pictures like this (from the article) really just makes me think that maybe, the grass is sometimes greener.

    mtdot-vid-000301001-00-02-2019-09-30-14-51_wide-5662b1752b0532a79d2ca975d13b133069515e01-s800-c85.jpg

    New Moon



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    My OH was in Canada for the past week (Alberta), it got progressively colder from 25 degrees start of the week to sub zero and snow by the end of the week. The plane had to be de-iced before take off in Calgary yesterday evening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    There was a mention yesterday of light snow on the Scottish mountains in connection with Lorenzo...


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 24,974 Mod ✭✭✭✭Loughc


    esposito wrote: »
    A carbon copy of last October so!

    And we all know what’s in store for us this December and January then.

    At least I won’t be disappointed this winter because I am expecting a typical Irish mild winter.

    Literally feels like that's what it's ramping up to be alright. Another mild, wet Irish Winter. Yay. :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,956 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    In other news, as sure as the sun rises in the east, our good friend Madden has predicted a cold and snowy winter. Its a genius strategy because every 10 years or so he will be right, and the press won't focus on the nine times he got it wrong. The Daily Express probably pay him a bonus to predict snowmageddon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,479 ✭✭✭Kamili


    In other news, as sure as the sun rises in the east, our good friend Madden has predicted a cold and snowy winter. Its a genius strategy because every 10 years or so he will be right, and the press won't focus on the nine time he got it wrong. The Daily Express probably pay him a bonus to predict snowmageddon.

    Wait for it - George Lee will be banging on about it on RTE next!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Same s*** every year...its like Groundhog day...Winter - 3 months of Blizzards on the way...Summer - Record Heatwave on the way...:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    To think we have almost six months of this s***e ahead of us before northern blocking sets in next April is totally depressing.

    UW144-21.GIF?10-07


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    To think we have almost six months of this s***e ahead of us before northern blocking sets in next April is totally depressing.

    UW144-21.GIF?10-07

    Elmer, you don't think 10 Oct is a bit early to be depressed about the coming winter even by your standards?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Elmer, you don't think 10 Oct is a bit early to be depressed about the coming winter even by your standards?
    No real northern blocking during a winter month since December 2010 tells me all I need to know. I see no reason why Svalbard for example won't be up to 6-8 degrees above normal AGAIN this winter.
    Even mild winters half a century ago could deliver a few snowy days from a potent northerly, northerlies now only last about a day and aren't even cold. I've given up!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    No real northern blocking during a winter month since December 2010 tells me all I need to know. I see no reason why Svalbard for example won't be up to 6-8 degrees above normal AGAIN this winter.
    Even mild winters half a century ago could deliver a few snowy days from a potent northerly, northerlies now only last about a day and aren't even cold. I've given up!

    Arctic continues to be excessively warm this Autumn. Possibly due to the incredibly high SSTs over virtually all of the N. Pacific. helping to ensure an ample supply warm air flowing into the region.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    NOAA are predicting the US will have higher than average temperatures for December.

    Would this not be a good thing for us? Less chances of cold air going into the Atlantic firing up the jet stream and less chance of get hit with storm after storm?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mod Note: To Alcohol I removed your post due to bad language you might consider reposting your question without the coarse vocabulary.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭esposito


    Lucreto wrote: »
    NOAA are predicting the US will have higher than average temperatures for December.

    Would this not be a good thing for us? Less chances of cold air going into the Atlantic firing up the jet stream and less chance of get hit with storm after storm?

    In theory, yes. But the Atlantic has other ways of spoiling the party for us. Just because N America may be unusually mild in winter does not guarantee prolonged cold for us unfortunately


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Lucreto wrote: »
    NOAA are predicting the US will have higher than average temperatures for December.

    Would this not be a good thing for us? Less chances of cold air going into the Atlantic firing up the jet stream and less chance of get hit with storm after storm?
    Could be warm in the eastern States but cold in Canada which would help fire up the Atlantic jet. Impossible to say really.

    For what it's worth, it has been generally on the warm side over not just in the States, but pretty much the entirety of N. America over the last 30 days, and it has been pretty damp over on this side of the pond with around average or slightly above temps.

    6HwsKv9.png

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Some parts of the US have been having quite a winter since September. Please give us your wintry conditions for the winter since you've had your fair share of winter weather!


  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    So what is the general consensus for this winter? Are we looking at another mild and wet set up or something more akin to Narnia!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    bazlers wrote: »
    So what is the general consensus for this winter? Are we looking at another mild and wet set up or something more akin to Narnia!

    It's still too early to answer that and last winter taught us not to get excited! Personally, I feel it's going to be another 2013-14 but less extreme.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    bazlers wrote: »
    So what is the general consensus for this winter? Are we looking at another mild and wet set up or something more akin to Narnia!

    it's far too early to say but most of the models are pointing towards a mild or very mild winter. It is easy to believe this because this is what we end up with most winters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This is what I have come up with after the usual process. The mid-November update might be more than just a tweak this time, I could see this going several different ways as there are some unusual synoptics in various regions of the hemisphere. But the emphasis in my research study was on high-energy events. I don't think low pressure areas this winter will be fooling around, they are going to be packed with energy and moisture compared to some winters. Possibly 2013-14 is somewhat of an analogue, although I would say, shifted a bit south of that onslaught of storms. This is copied from my post on Net-weather which explains a Britain and Ireland focus in the wording.

    The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November.

    This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes.

    Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position.

    This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds.

    The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France.

    Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland.

    Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster).

    A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland.

    This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control.

    North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California.

    This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,666 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Pretty much share the same thoughts as me so far M.T. A mild and very wet winter with a strong jet stream that may become meridional at times.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    I'll go against the grain and go for a cold winter with plentiful snow. Mild start, increasingly cold towards the end of December followed by one proper cold spell in early/mid January. Couple of one-day snows in February and early March.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 58 ✭✭booferking


    I'll go for an early start to winter going by the increasingly good background signals.

    https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1183983738675519488


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