Winter 2019/2020 - General Discussion

I'm not basing this on anything remotely scientific, just gut instinct and Murphy's Law, but is anyone else feeling that with the (horribly) negative NAO we've had for a huge amount of this summer, and indeed looking like going negative again next week with a substantial Greenie block (GFS) and at least above average heights (ECM), that knowing our luck it'll decide to go positive again just when the PV is getting underway and lock us in for a mundanely zonal final few months of 2019??

Obviously hope I'm wrong here, but it would be feckin' typical.

There was a run of 3 consecutive colder than average Decembers from 2008 to 2010 but been mild since although 2014 and 2017 closer to average whilst 2015 and 2018 exceptionally mild. Due to December 2010 being so severe, I think we’re due a severe January or February more than December in my opinion. February 2018 ended severe but wasn’t a very exceptional month overall. January 2010 was very cold but second half was relatively milder so not a severe one overall.

Been watching some preliminary winter forecasts for the States these last few days and the general consensus is that a ridge will set up in and around the SW'ern quarter, allowing cooler to spill into the eastern part which, more often than not, usually helps to activate the jet stream over the N.Atlantic. Let's just hope that if this was to happen that this potentially active jet stream does not end up near the Arctic circle, leaving Ireland under the eternal influence of a very active and stratus laden Azores high. :rolleyes:

A worst case scenario example:

Gonzo wrote: »

If we end up with yet another mild winter, I wouldn't mind this scenario. In winter I only like precipitation of the white gold variety. Nothing worse than months on end of cold rain and wind so i'd happily take quiet, dry and mild, if snow ends up in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey.

A repeat of January this year it is for you so!

Most of our active weather in winter is of the mild type anyway.

My three wishes for this winter coming:
1. Lots of strong gales.
2. Lots of thunder and hail storms.
3. The odd frosty night for a dog walk or two.

What a waste. Tragic!

Sadists showing that now:mad:

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Big snowfalls in parts of Montana yesterday.

https://www.npr.org/2019/09/30/765694898/up-to-4-feet-of-snow-montana-hit-by-unprecedented-winter-storm?t=1569861004904

Lucky sods.
That's a place i've always wanted to visit. Thanks for the article. Regarding our winter, i hope the low solar activity plays a decisive factor this year.

nacho libre wrote: »

In other news, as sure as the sun rises in the east, our good friend Madden has predicted a cold and snowy winter. Its a genius strategy because every 10 years or so he will be right, and the press won't focus on the nine time he got it wrong. The Daily Express probably pay him a bonus to predict snowmageddon.

Wait for it - George Lee will be banging on about it on RTE next!

To think we have almost six months of this s***e ahead of us before northern blocking sets in next April is totally depressing.

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Elmer, you don't think 10 Oct is a bit early to be depressed about the coming winter even by your standards?

No real northern blocking during a winter month since December 2010 tells me all I need to know. I see no reason why Svalbard for example won't be up to 6-8 degrees above normal AGAIN this winter.
Even mild winters half a century ago could deliver a few snowy days from a potent northerly, northerlies now only last about a day and aren't even cold. I've given up!

This is what I have come up with after the usual process. The mid-November update might be more than just a tweak this time, I could see this going several different ways as there are some unusual synoptics in various regions of the hemisphere. But the emphasis in my research study was on high-energy events. I don't think low pressure areas this winter will be fooling around, they are going to be packed with energy and moisture compared to some winters. Possibly 2013-14 is somewhat of an analogue, although I would say, shifted a bit south of that onslaught of storms. This is copied from my post on Net-weather which explains a Britain and Ireland focus in the wording.

The following is a preliminary long-range forecast for winter 2019-20, If it seems necessary, I will amend or update this forecast in mid-November.

This appears likely to be a season where high energy weather events will be grappling with a fairly robust supply of colder air at high latitudes.

Britain and Ireland can expect a very unsettled winter with frequent low pressure systems steered by a strong jet stream running a little south of its average position.

This favours a split north-south outcome where the south is often on the milder side of the storm track getting strong southwest winds and rain, while the north is more open to snow, ice and easterly winds.

The north-south divide may be enhanced by the likely appearance of strong blocking highs over eastern Scandinavia and western Russia. I don't think these are going to dominate the circulation but they will come into conflict with the zonal regime at times, forcing it to dive southeast around 5-10W and into France and the western Mediterranean. This may be another winter of heavy Alpine snowfalls and frequent severe cold spells in Germany and possibly Belgium and Netherlands into northeast France.

Battleground conditions seem likely at times across southeast England into Wales and central to northern Ireland. Frequent snow events may occur in northern and even central England, and southern Scotland, also Northern Ireland and some adjacent parts of the Republic of Ireland.

Some heavy precipitation is likely in this scenario, heavy rain in most cases in southern England, especially the southwest, and the southern third of Ireland (Munster and south Leinster).

A set-up like this may not remain steady-state, but could fluctuate north-south bringing the milder conditions further north at times, while setting the battleground further south at other times. However, the tendency will be for temperatures to average closer to normal or above in the southwest, and below normal in Scotland.

This pattern could evolve into a colder February or even March if the strong jet stream loses energy, then the blocking may be able to assert more control.

North America can expect a rather harsh winter in general, with severe cold waves at times, colliding with an active storm track from Texas northeast towards Virginia and southeastern New England. There could therefore be heavier than average snowfalls in the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and inland Mid-Atlantic to northeastern states. A pattern like this would not rule out one or two coastal blizzards in the mix. The west will be dominated by persistent cold high pressure trapped in valleys, and coastal areas will have a fairly average winter with a lot of rain, low cloud and moderate southeast winds. Snow on western mountains will be generally a bit above average but might be twice normal in the southern Rockies and northern Arizona around Flagstaff. Drought will break during the winter for California.

This may also be one of those winters where extreme cold moves south from Siberia into China, Korea and Japan.