Storm Jorge : February 29th

bazlers wrote: »

How much precipitation are we likely to get between tomorrow morning and Sunday evening.
Is the Shannon going to get worse with flooding?

I'm fairly sure more rain is due later tonight, so I'd say there could be a good chance of more flooding. Todays break from the rain was badly wanted

Graces7 wrote: »

Heavy rain just started out here now. West mayo offshore

Just a passing shower Graces7

easypazz wrote: »

It will be another non event. I am calling it now.

What a surprise.

That's a fairly large swathe of 80km/h+ mean winds just off the coast. Can understand the warnings.
(The orange is 76km/h +, red is 89km/h + . 80km/h + over land is a red warning criterion).

Looks severe but not end or worldly.

Once in a season type storm
Take care.

endainoz wrote: »

I'm fairly sure more rain is due later tonight, so I'd say there could be a good chance of more flooding. Todays break from the rain was badly wanted

Flooding has not really gone down much in some places in particular, surprised to see a road I travelled last Thursday is pretty much the same tonight.

Would it be probable/certain that flight from Shannon to Spain at 3pm Saturday afternoon will be very delayed?

Angle of approach seems to suggest Dublin not in the line of fire on this occasion, not to say it won't become very windy at times but this looks like it might peak at 55-60 knot gusts for Dublin even if 80 plus verified on west coast (south coast between those ranges, 70'ish).

Pointless to speculate more until we get a bit closer. This low by the way is currently showing up at about 51N 27W (from satellite and extrapolating CMC 18z with track) and in a few minutes I'll be seeing a map with an estimated central pressure at 00z but it's probably around 990 mbs dropping steadily but not yet rapidly. Not looking that well-organized yet, but here again, the majority of these storms seem to peak a bit too early to deliver strongest winds to Irish coast.

Will edit in or perhaps repost with the updated centre co-ordinates and pressure.

Here's a link to the satellite imagery, it should update automatically for later readers (check time stamp on map).

https://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

The "kicker" is at its peak of development now, much more sharply defined over eastern Canada. But bear in mind that Jorge is going to be 20-25 mbs deeper by Saturday than the kicker is currently over Quebec and Maine (it has twin centres now).

(added later 992 mb near 51N 29W on map although my estimate would fit the rest of the isobars a bit better so take yer pick.

'Flash Icon' (runs every 3 hours out to 30hrs) forecast wind gusts for tomorrow morning at 9am.




Forecast low position for the same time:

Graces7 wrote: »

Posts as always full of wisdom!

Many thanks to all. Forewarned is good.

Heavy rain on and off all night and deluging now; still more of a slow waltz than a frantic fandango as there is little wind.

Bitterly cold. .

All is permanently battened down out here....

Take care!

We all hope for your safety being that exposed to the Atlantic, one selfish part of us hopes you will ride out the storm and report on its stages, another part says get to the safest place and stay there.

More generally, I had a look at the FMI Hirlam and it's the worst of the lot.

Have to say, a bit of uncertainty remains on the table because this will need to keep developing in the rather complex way that the models have all converged upon, a sort of right turn along 55N in a few more hours while steadily deepening. Any flaw in that scenario could burst the balloon and downgrade this to a lower end orange because right now I can bet you people above our pay scale are talking about red alerts. I sure would be.

Are we looking at upgrades to orange for the rest of the country?

leahyl wrote: »

Are we looking at upgrades to orange for the rest of the country?

Not my call but I would say unlikely to go orange anywhere not already orange except possibly Cork, Limerick and Roscommon, and for Cork and Limerick that might be only because some parts could get into that level of gusts, would not expect all of those counties to be in. However, if they were to go red for the west coast, I have the feeling they would perhaps go orange almost everywhere in part to avoid complexity that might not serve any useful purpose?

I would say if the current model trend continues and there is no last-minute downgrade, a red alert is quite likely for at least Mayo, Galway, Clare and Kerry.

As to city of Cork and surroundings, I hope it won't be too bad (maybe some have a different hope) and would say 55-58 kts peak gusts might be about the tops, low 60s along the coast. Shannon might also get to 60-65 in this set-up. Mace Head 80-90, Valentia 70-80 range quite possible. Belmullet always difficult to assess, might briefly see 70s later in the day. Newport a bit of a wild card being influenced by some topography, 67 the over-under there.

Dublin stations still thinking 55-60 and maybe not even that, we'll find out on Saturday. Peak for Dublin might be Saturday night when that secondary impulse tightens the gradient and it becomes more WNW, then you can get stronger gusts into Dublin maybe.