Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

greysides · 08-03-2020 1:10am #1

While there are several threads already running across Boards, this is a thread where we can discuss the disease and it's implications from our perspectives and biased towards how it affects us, the people who live in the country.
This is to be a fact and information thread with news and science, rather than a chit-chat thread. The intention being to educate and help each other.

greysides · 08-03-2020 1:17am

Covid-19 is more infectious than the Flu.

greysides · 08-03-2020 1:21am

Mortality rate is less than SARS. However with the rate of spread, I believe the number of deaths has already exceeded that of SARS.

greysides · 08-03-2020 1:24am

The mortality rate is decreasing as treatments are refined and detection methods are improved and detect more infected people with milder versions.

greysides · 08-03-2020 1:28am

The death rate is higher in older people and those with pre-existing serious illnesses.
Elsewhere I read that even with pre-existing complaints if you are under 60 the chances of survival are 95%.

greysides · 08-03-2020 1:31am

Age is a significant factor in mortality rates.

greysides · 08-03-2020 1:34am

The rate of spread is important in limiting its effects. Hence the quarantine and social-distancing approaches.

greysides · 08-03-2020 2:48pm

Sourced from https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-reality-check-how-worried-should-we-be-11948003

greysides · 08-03-2020 3:05pm

Coronavirus: How does COVID-19 attack the human body?
By Tania Snuggs, news reporter

Wednesday 4 March 2020 18:06, UK

The most common signs that you may be infected with coronavirus are breathing problems, and that is because its first port of call is the lungs.

Just like the flu, coronaviruses are respiratory diseases and can spread when an infected patient coughs or sneezes, spraying small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth, which may contain the virus.

How coronavirus attacks cells in the lungs

Although just around two months old, experts are slowly discovering more about COVID-19, which appears to be attacking two specific sets of cells in the lungs, according to Professor Mark Fielder - a medical microbiologist at Kingston University.

Speaking to Sky News, he explains one is called a goblet cell and the other is called a ciliated cell.

He said: "A goblet cell produces mucus that makes a wet slimy layer on your respiratory tract, and that's important for helping you keep your lungs moist, which is needed to keep you healthy.

"The ciliated cells are cells that have little hairs on them that wave in an upward direction, so any nasty material that gets stuck in the mucus, such as bacteria and viruses, or particles of dust, gets swept up towards your throat.

"When you cough, you cough up mucus and swallow it and you dump that into the acid bath we call a stomach - that's the way things normally work."

But he says COVID-19 appears to be infecting those particular two sets of cells preferentially - "something that was seen similarly with SARS," he said.

SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, also originated in China, and killed 774 people following the 2002-2003 outbreak, far less than the almost 3,000 killed by COVID-19.

Professor Fielder added: "The problem we've got here, is the virus infects these cells and starts to kill them.

"And as it kills them as part of its replication process, tissue falls into the lungs, and the lungs start to get blockages - and that blockage might mean that the patient develops pneumonia."

Immune system 'goes haywire' and can damage healthy tissue

He says there is an added problem in that the immune system tries to react because it recognises the body is under attack.

"It can actually almost over attack, and become what we call hyperimmune, and set up a large attack which can then start to damage the healthy tissue underneath."

Prof Fielder also claims the body's efforts to fight the virus can cause inflammation in the lungs, which can make breathing even more difficult.

It is also suggested that the immune system "goes haywire", causing even more damage to the organ and other parts of the tissue.

He said: "Once the virus has got into the pneumonic state in the lungs, it can start causing problems in the air sacs in the blood vessels in your lungs - commonly wrapped around the almost broccoli shaped organs in the lungs, called the alveoli.

"These are really important in normal breathing to help the body exchange carbon dioxide for oxygen under normal breathing, and these are very delicate, and can get damaged and limit your capability of oxygenating blood."

And he adds that it is not only the lungs that are attacked by the virus.

Coronavirus also attacks other important organs

COVID-19 can also target the kidneys - the two bean-shaped organs which filter toxins from our blood.

He says it they are not functioning properly, it could lead to organ failure and the patient "is going to struggle to hang on to life".

greysides · 08-03-2020 3:28pm

;https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-face-mask-facts-spreading-covid-19

Can a face mask stop it spreading? Coronavirus facts checked

The truth about how easy it is to catch Covid-19, who is vulnerable and what you can do to avoid infection.

Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’

Wearing a face mask is certainly not an iron-clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone (although others have found lower levels of effectiveness).

If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re showing symptoms of coronavirus, or have been diagnosed, wearing a mask can also protect others. So masks are crucial for health and social care workers looking after patients and are also recommended for family members who need to care for someone who is ill – ideally both the patient and carer should have a mask.

However, masks will probably make little difference if you’re just walking around town or taking a bus so there is no need to bulk-buy a huge supply.

Claim: it is mutating into a more deadly strain

All viruses accumulate mutations over time and the virus that causes Covid-19 is no different. How widespread different strains of a virus become depends on natural selection – the versions that can propagate quickest and replicate effectively in the body will be the most “successful”. This doesn’t necessarily mean most dangerous for people though, as viruses that kill people rapidly or make them so sick that they are incapacitated may be less likely to be transmitted.

Genetic analysis by Chinese scientists of 103 samples of the virus, taken from patients in Wuhan and other cities, suggests that early on two main strains emerged, designated L and S. Although the L strain appeared to be more prevalent than the S strain (about 70% of the samples belonged to the former), the S branch of the virus was found to be the ancestral version.

The team behind this research suggested that this may indicate the L strain is more “aggressive”, either transmitting more easily or replicating faster inside the body. However, this theory is speculative at this stage – there haven’t yet been direct comparisons to see whether people who catch one version of the virus are more likely to pass it on or suffer more severe symptoms.

Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.

Claim: ‘It only kills the elderly, so younger people can relax’

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19. But the illness still has a higher chance of leading to serious respiratory symptoms than seasonal flu and there are other at-risk groups – health workers, for instance, are more vulnerable because they are likely to have higher exposure to the virus. The actions that young, healthy people take, including reporting symptoms and following quarantine instructions, will have an important role in protecting the most vulnerable in society and in shaping the overall trajectory of the outbreak.

Claim: ‘You need to be with an infected person for 10 minutes’

For flu, some hospital guidelines define exposure as being within six feet of an infected person who sneezes or coughs for 10 minutes or longer. However, it is possible to be infected with shorter interactions or even by picking the virus up from contaminated surfaces, although this is thought to be a less common route of transmission.

Claim: ‘A vaccine could be ready within a few months’

Scientists were quick out of the gates in beginning development of a vaccine for the new coronavirus, helped by the early release of the genetic sequence by Chinese researchers. The development of a viable vaccine continues apace, with several teams now testing candidates in animal experiments. However, the incremental trials required before a commercial vaccine could be rolled out are still a lengthy undertaking – and an essential one to ensure that even rare side-effects are spotted. A commercially available vaccine within a year would be quick.

Claim: ‘If a pandemic is declared, there is nothing more we can do to stop the spread’

A pandemic is defined as worldwide spread of a new disease – but the exact threshold for declaring one is quite vague. In practice, the actions being taken would not change whether or not a pandemic is declared. Containment measures are not simply about eliminating the disease altogether. Delaying the onset of an outbreak or decreasing the peak is crucial in allowing health systems to cope with a sudden influx of patients.

© 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

greysides · 08-03-2020 3:39pm

Excerpts from:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-symptoms-explained-and-when-you-should-see-a-doctor/12024042

What are the symptoms?
Most people who are infected by coronavirus feel like they have a common cold.

The most common symptoms are fever, sore throat, dry cough and fatigue but some also have headaches, nasal congestion or a runny nose.

Diarrhea and nausea have also been reported but are less common.

Symptoms will generally appear three to four days after exposure to the virus but can be up to 14 days later.

In serious cases, the symptoms will be similar to influenza, Dr Rawlinson said.

"They may see changes on their X-ray, they might get pneumonia," Dr Rawlinson said.

"Some, at the much more severe end, will need to go to ICU but that is a very small percentage."

Although it is less likely, some people who contract COVID-19 don't develop any symptoms or feel unwell in any way.

Those under 18 are less susceptible to the virus, according to the limited clinical reports available.

Dr Rawlinson says those over 65 are at higher risk of more severe symptoms as are those with pre-existing conditions like heart disease or asthma.

However, the mortality rate is highest among people over 80.

As opposed to the influenza outbreak in 2009, pregnant women do not seem to be at greater risk of contracting coronavirus.

When will I recover?
About 80 per cent of people recover from the disease without any special treatment.

"If [you] have COVID-19, don't be overwhelmed by it. By far and away, people are recovering well," Dr Rawlinson said.

Most people with minor symptoms will be told to quarantine themselves at home, keep up fluids and take paracetamol to control their temperature.

Australian patients have generally recovered in about four weeks, Dr Rawlinson said.

The people who suffer more severe symptoms may require hospital admission, where they will be cared for in a negative pressure ward and might be given intravenous fluids or oxygen in more serious cases.

Some may develop an infection in their lower respiratory tract which could lead to pneumonia.

These patients would be treated in an intensive care unit where high-flow oxygen may be administered or they may be intubated.

Severe pneumonia can lead to respiratory failure, which is the leading cause of death from coronavirus.

greysides · 08-03-2020 3:49pm

The bit about 60% alcohol in wipes could be important to know.

Can a coronavirus be prevented or avoided?
Try to avoid people who are sick or meeting in large groups. Stay home if you are sick.

Cover your cough with a tissue or cough into your upper sleeve or elbow. Do not cough into your hands.

Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing. If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol. Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty. Avoid touching your mouth, nose, or eyes.

Water John · 08-03-2020 3:54pm

Thanks Greysides, excellent stuff.
Really think the country needs to examine lockdown. Foot and Mouth + type approach. This approach esp where there is community spread.

Water John · 08-03-2020 6:32pm

Case in the Bon Secours in Cork also;
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/second-cork-hospital-hit-with-covid-19-case-in-bon-secours-986546.html

greysides · 09-03-2020 1:44am

HSE Advice:

Close contact

This is only a guide but close contact can mean:

spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact within 2 metres of an infected person
living in the same house or shared accommodation as an infected person

Anyone with symptoms of coronavirus who has been in close contact with a confirmed case in the last 14 days should:

isolate themselves from other people - this means going into a different, well-ventilated room alone, with a phone

phone their GP, or emergency department

in a medical emergency (if you have severe symptoms) phone 112 or 999

Buford T. Justice XIX · 09-03-2020 3:01pm

10 reasons why we ought not panic over Coronavirus.

https://theconversation.com/amp/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941?__twitter_impression=true

alps · 09-03-2020 3:18pm

Thank you grey sides...great information.

I'm really concerned about our capability to stay working if we get this virus. By the nature of spread of a disease like this, farmers may be left having to complete their own work schedule even while ill.

As it is a virus that can readily development into pneumonia for the host, it's a part of this illness that does not fit in well with having to continue farm work..

Have you seen any info greysides on the person's ability to continue working with the illness..hardly of danger to the general public in an on farm only situtation

_Brian · 09-03-2020 7:38pm

Buford T. Justice VI wrote: »

10 reasons why we ought not panic over Coronavirus.

https://theconversation.com/amp/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941?__twitter_impression=true

I’ve said before.
All we need to do is buy some time, try keep the infection rates as low as possible until proper meds are available. Cancelling large meets makes sense, as does people not taking leisure travel as much as other years just to keep a lid on it for the moment.

arctictree · 09-03-2020 10:04pm

So sick pay will also be given to the self employed. I wonder does this apply to Farmers?!

Buford T. Justice XIX · 09-03-2020 10:09pm

This might be useful in helping decide if you need to get tested. From the WHO.

Kewreeuss · 09-03-2020 10:17pm

Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.

bogman_bass · 10-03-2020 12:16am

Kewreeuss wrote: »

Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.

Remember that the papers job isn’t to keep you informed. Itsvto sell papers

dohc turbo2 · 10-03-2020 12:34am

Kewreeuss wrote: »

Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.

It’s going on the death rate of 3-5% with an estimated up to 2 million people infected

Base price · 10-03-2020 12:42am

OH and I were chatting and reckoned that if Covid-19 directly affected Irish livestock at least we could rely on DAFM to implement an efficient containment policy.

_Brian · 10-03-2020 11:33am

Kewreeuss wrote: »

Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.

The Irish health authorities said just yesterday that they can’t disagree that 1.9milkion Irish people could be infected. Look at the death rate in Italy, almost 5%.

5% would kill 95,000
3% would kill 57,000

People need to realise that the potential is huge if we don’t get this right.

I’m not saying that it’s going to kill that many, but if it establishes here with the vigour that it was let grip on Italy we willl have allot of sick people and it may be enough to break our already fragile health system.

One of my kids who was seven at the time got the swine flu when it was going. It was nasty but thankfully existing antiviral meds treated it and after being in isolation for a week she was feeling better. If the treatment wasn’t available I could easily see how much worse it could have gotten and quickly too, and she was a healthy 7 year old.

Buford T. Justice XIX · 10-03-2020 2:15pm

The average incubation period is 5.1 days, which is similar to SARS. 97.5% will develop symptoms within 11.5 days. 14 day quarantine is reasonable as 1% will develop symptoms after 14 days.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported

greysides · 10-03-2020 2:54pm

alps wrote: »

Have you seen any info greysides on the person's ability to continue working with the illness..hardly of danger to the general public in an on farm only situtation

I haven't. I will if I do.

80% get a mild disease. Recently it has shown an ability to cause relapses. Put this with an ageing farming demographic and I would urge abundant caution. It is more deadly than Flu.

If it really gets widespread we may face lockdown as Italy does now. This may mean family returning home which would in some cases allow a lightening of the load.

We know more about epidemiology than the average punter. We should use that now for ourselves.

Risk analysise your activity.

Disinfection.

Isolation.

Bioexclusion.

Biocontainment.

AHI, DAFM and FMD have us better prepared.

This is going to be long battle, virus seems likely to still be around going into next winter.

Siamsa Sessions · 10-03-2020 4:15pm

What's the end game for covid-19? As in, how will it end and we can all go back to normal?

How did SARS end? Was there a vaccine produced and the movement restrictions were then relaxed and finally removed?

Water John · 10-03-2020 5:00pm

It's a different battle in different countries, depending on a lot of factors. We really haven't much history of the specific virus to go on, 3 months +.
IWT at the forefront of experts minds is a worst case scenario, when they would reference the 'Spanish flu' 1918/19.
The fight is more immediate than the long term view. The aim firstly obviously is to contain it. Trace close connections to all positive patients. That's why the two without obvious sources, community spread, in the South of the country, are worrying.
The next step is to lower the impact and spread it over a longer period of time so that both primarily the health service and secondly the economy are not overwhelmed.
The time scale has lots of guessimates, possibly peaking in June/July here and it being with us heading into next winter. Hopefully a vaccine will be coming onstream a some point. Meanwhile antiviral medications will become available. Some hope is being placed on Remdesivir.
Others here are far more expert than me, and hopefully will correct any error I have made.

yosemitesam1 · 10-03-2020 5:28pm

Water John wrote: »

It's a different battle in different countries, depending on a lot of factors. We really haven't much history of the specific virus to go on, 3 months +.
IWT at the forefront of experts minds is a worst case scenario, when they would reference the 'Spanish flu' 1918/19.
The fight is more immediate than the long term view. The aim firstly obviously is to contain it. Trace close connections to all positive patients. That's why the two without obvious sources, community spread, in the South of the country, are worrying.
The next step is to lower the impact and spread it over a longer period of time so that both primarily the health service and secondly the economy are not overwhelmed.
The time scale has lots of guessimates, possibly peaking in June/July here and it being with us heading into next winter. Hopefully a vaccine will be coming onstream a some point. Meanwhile antiviral medications will become available. Some hope is being placed on Remdesivir.
Others here are far more expert than me, and hopefully will correct any error I have made.

The more people that get infected, the less likely that a successful vaccine will be able to be produced to wipe out this coronavirus. I think we'll be stuck with it as it will destroy the world's economy to fully contain it , not accounting for third world countries lack of potential control

_Brian · 10-03-2020 8:13pm

_Brian wrote: »

The Irish health authorities said just yesterday that they can’t disagree that 1.9milkion Irish people could be infected. Look at the death rate in Italy, almost 5%.

5% would kill 95,000
3% would kill 57,000

People need to realise that the potential is huge if we don’t get this right.

I’m not saying that it’s going to kill that many, but if it establishes here with the vigour that it was let grip on Italy we willl have allot of sick people and it may be enough to break our already fragile health system.

One of my kids who was seven at the time got the swine flu when it was going. It was nasty but thankfully existing antiviral meds treated it and after being in isolation for a week she was feeling better. If the treatment wasn’t available I could easily see how much worse it could have gotten and quickly too, and she was a healthy 7 year old.

I see the death rate in Italy is now 6.2%
10% of active medical staff are isolated and not working
They brought forward the graduation of nurses to try shore up numbers. They are trying to get retired staff back to work but I'd say given the death rate among older people that isnt an attractive prospect at all. God help them they are having a horrific time.

I really hope our professionals are looking at what went wrong in Italy and honestly putting plans in place to head off that sort of disaster.

Meanwhile at home the HSE has stopped blocking hiring staff, OH's department is 30% down on staff for last 2 years and been battling to get staff.. Got a call today to get in whoever they need for next week.

patsy_mccabe · 10-03-2020 8:28pm

Cheltenham should never have happened. Totally irresponsible to have people gathering like that from all over Europe. How many could catch it there and bring it back to their areas, for it to start spreading all over again. Madness.

Mooooo · 10-03-2020 8:34pm

Italy was always know for the peck on the cheek greeting I wonder has that made it worse in terms of transmission initially?

_Brian · 10-03-2020 8:35pm

Mooooo wrote: »

Italy was always know for the peck on the cheek greeting I wonder has that made it worse in terms of transmission initially?

That’s part of what they think.
Plus it’s likely the virus got in late December and had time to set in while everyone was thinking this was a Chinese problem.

endainoz · 10-03-2020 8:45pm

From a farming point of view, if we have a lockdown on schools/colleges for a few weeks, that would have to extend to the Marts aswell. I know there would be plenty of aul lads who would go for the chat but in fairness a high percentage of them would be in the at risk age group.

Base price · 10-03-2020 9:13pm

Website that tracks confirmed cases and deaths by country/worldwide -
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

patsy_mccabe · 10-03-2020 11:13pm

bogman_bass · 10-03-2020 11:31pm

Got a text from Quinn’s today saying their reps aren’t going to visit farms.

10-03-2020 11:36pm

_Brian wrote: »

That’s part of what they think.
Plus it’s likely the virus got in late December and had time to set in while everyone was thinking this was a Chinese problem.

There was a wicked bad cold going around waterford in december

I got it and it knocked me straight out...in that id go to work and just about get jobs done at homr and panned out asleep by 7pm every night barely able to fuction and sister,along few lads in work.gave all xmas in bed

I had dry cough,fever and sweats like never before and took.weeks to get over it fully,i had it about 10 days after coming back from holiday to iceland and denmark for few days.....could it be that??

Gillespy · 10-03-2020 11:52pm

That was in Kerry as well. It ruined my Christmas too. Never had anything as bad.

dohc turbo2 · 10-03-2020 11:58pm

Gillespy wrote: »

That was in Kerry as well. It ruined my Christmas too. Never had anything as bad.

Yes that’s right , it was a right fecker to get rid of

iamwhoiam · 11-03-2020 12:02am

Gillespy wrote: »

That was in Kerry as well. It ruined my Christmas too. Never had anything as bad.

We had it in Dublin , we were flattened by it and cough lasted weeks

Base price · 11-03-2020 12:14am

According to the link it was a strain called A(h3).

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/health/flu-death-toll-rises-to-eight-as-doctors-warn-tough-winter-is-ahead-38800834.html

endainoz · 11-03-2020 12:17am

Was a bad dose, I had it around Christmas myself. Part of flu season but not related to this.

Water John · 11-03-2020 12:44am

Just getting over that bloody thing, not fun.

amacca · 12-03-2020 12:03am

_Brian wrote: »

I really hope our professionals are looking at what went wrong in Italy and honestly putting plans in place to head off that sort of disaster.

From what I've witnessed so far I don't believe they are. They are definitely not looking at what went right in hong kong and singapore and trying to implement that anyway.

What little faith I had is dwindling daily.

Water John · 12-03-2020 12:26am

UK is moving to, delay phase, tomorrow possibly. However, that doesn't seem to mean much as they still won't be banning large gatherings.

greysides · 12-03-2020 1:13am

Water John wrote: »

UK is moving to, delay phase, tomorrow possibly. However, that doesn't seem to mean much as they still won't be banning large gatherings.

http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-set-to-move-to-delay-phase-schools-could-close-and-major-events-cancelled-11955695

patsy_mccabe · 12-03-2020 11:12am

I see Tom Hanks and his wife have it now. Will help bring some reality to it all for USA people.
I was in a place yesterday in Limerick and the manager sent me and another women back out to use the hand sanitizer. We missed it on the way in. All staff were wearing disposible gloves too.

K.G. · 12-03-2020 12:34pm

School s collages etc closed

Dozer1 · 12-03-2020 12:42pm

yep heading for total lock down, I imagine that's the end of GAA, marts etc as per Leo today on gatherings

oh but wait sure the 30K people returning from Cheltenham will be grand

Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

Comments