Heavy Rain Warning & Potential Flooding (Friday / Saturday July 6th & 7th)

Redsunset · 04-07-2012 7:58pm #1

Met Éireann and M.T.C have given a heavy rain warning for Friday.

Met Éireann have described the situation as looking like a washout with potential flooding.

East and south Eastern regions look like receiving the greatest rainfall totals as a band of heavy rain moves in giving up to 50mm in places on some models.

The focus then is for northern region for Saturday for more possible heavy rain and flooding.

Might turn out interesting so thread could be necessary.

eastmayo · 04-07-2012 8:25pm

well at least evelyn looks happy:D

torrentum · 04-07-2012 9:20pm

Any chance of electrical activity with this rain?

eskimocat · 04-07-2012 9:32pm

She is just after saying.... go west young man.... love it! She has an absolutely brilliant sense of humour...

Redsunset · 04-07-2012 9:38pm

Seen that, ah she's brilliant at putting a very detailed forecast together. Its a credit to her.

JanuarySnowstor · 04-07-2012 10:00pm

Yes, in fairness to Evelyn she is the best at what she does.

It looks a very volatile situation though for Friday / Saturday and under such volatile conditions the forecast is likely to change over the next 24hours. Therefore issuing such an early warning, whilst making the public aware, could be a tad premature.

She also commented on that showery cell over the bay of biscay tonight risking the south coast, and while the models dont predict it coming near us, it is worth watching!

Iancar29 · 04-07-2012 10:06pm

She's even madder to talk to in Person trust me!! haha

Looking forward to the 18z run to see what theyve been seeing .

Maudi · 04-07-2012 10:11pm

eastmayo wrote: »

well at least evelyn looks happy:D

ha i was just about to say the same..good aul ev... did you ever hear the way she says ..dwrizzle

mike65 · 04-07-2012 10:43pm

Go away you ****ing bastard summer! :mad:

fatherbuzcagney · 04-07-2012 10:43pm

redsunset wrote: »

..that, ah she brilliant at putting a very detailed forecast together. Its a credit to her.[/QUOT

i can give a very detailed forecast too for ireland.... rain rain and more rain with no chance of sunshine:)

Fiskar · 04-07-2012 10:55pm

eastmayo wrote: »

well at least evelyn looks happy:D

Maybe a bit tipsy

Iancar29 · 04-07-2012 10:56pm

ITs gonna be a WET Friday folks!!!

Fiskar · 04-07-2012 10:56pm

Whats the best guess on saturday for Galway? Going to the in port race with the clan so want to pack light. Will I need rain gear?

Deep Easterly · 04-07-2012 11:36pm

Fiskar wrote: »

Whats the best guess on saturday for Galway?

Rough guess is that it will be same as today, yesterday, this day last month and this day last year.

Latest DMI HIRLAM has the main band of rain very slightly further south than on the ECMWF 12z run but still looking pretty wet for the south and east.

Will be an interesting one to watch.

mallards · 05-07-2012 12:11am

Poop I'm flying from Dublin to Cardiff on Friday morning and back on Sunday evening. Any chance of that system disrupting the flight do you think?
Thanks

Sephiroth_dude · 05-07-2012 12:22am

hopefully the thunderstorms will stay away from cork anyway :mad:

Iancar29 · 05-07-2012 12:53am

Sephiroth_dude wrote: »

hopefully the thunderstorms will stay away from cork anyway :mad:

????... one , this setup isnt really for thunderstorms.

2...... who doesn't want thunderstorms? ha

redsteveireland · 05-07-2012 1:21am

Iancar29 wrote: »

????... one , this setup isnt really for thunderstorms.

2...... who doesn't want thunderstorms? ha

I know you might not believe me but for once I don't want thunderstorms, I have a flight on Friday...

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 2:48am

The UKMET are taking the threat fairly serious. The rain will be falling over alot of higher ground over there and so large totals could be achieved. We have our own bit of high ground too in the firing line so some thing on a par could be achieved here also. Anyway this is what's being said.

A severe weather warning has been issued by the Met Office, with fears of flooding and disruption on Friday and Saturday.Rainfall totals could be 40-60mm (1.6-2.4 inches) widely across warning areas, but some places could see up to 100mm (3.9 inches) of rain through Friday and into Saturday.– MET OFFICE CHIEF FORECASTER MARTIN YOUNG.

Central and northern England is expected to be worst affected, with an amber alert - the second most severe category that can be given - in place for north-east England.Up to 100mm (3.9 inches) of rain could fall in 36 hours during the downpours

he average UK rainfall for July is 69.9mm (2.8 inches)

4.4mm (2.5 inches) for the north of England

People living in the affected areas have been warned to be prepared for flooding.Heavy rain on Friday and Saturday may lead to significant flooding of properties across parts of northern England.We urge people to remain vigilant and prepared for flooding by checking the Environment Agency website and signing up for localised river flood warnings.– ENVIRONMENT AGENCY SPOKESMAN

df1985 · 05-07-2012 8:33am

jaysus...going a gig all day in the pheonix park saturday!!

leahyl · 05-07-2012 8:47am

ME don't seem to be going down the road of the UK met office - seem to be going with just your standard "some heavy falls of rain in places". No mention of 100mm!!

So what I'm saying is it's probably gonna miss us completely - all that heavy rain.

ian_m · 05-07-2012 8:48am

mallards wrote: »

Poop I'm flying from Dublin to Cardiff on Friday morning and back on Sunday evening. Any chance of that system disrupting the flight do you think?
Thanks

Very unlikely.

gbee · 05-07-2012 9:00am

My iPhone has the wettest period for my location Friday night into Saturday morning. 18:00 ~ 06:00 approz peak.

Do I see another mad system coming in for Thursday Friday week from the NE?

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 9:25am

leahyl wrote: »

ME don't seem to be going down the road of the UK met office - seem to be going with just your standard "some heavy falls of rain in places". No mention of 100mm!!

So what I'm saying is it's probably gonna miss us completely - all that heavy rain.

Only higher parts of Wicklow and Dublin are at threat of seeing larger rainfall totals. I probably didn't make that clear enough in my post. And I'm sure areas of the country will see very little or northing of this too. Parts of Cork, Kerry, Clare, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Donegal for example are not really in the way of this. The attention is on the east and south east.

nbar12 · 05-07-2012 10:30am

ffs playing golf with work tomorrow afternoon! Was meant to be playing today and its nice and dry! I couldn't be more freaked! Think I might just call in sick and cry and shiver in the corner of my room

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 11:37am

Matt Hugo on location of heaviest rainfall.

==============================================

Bring in mind people that this still could be a damp squib. Track of heaviest rain not locked in yet and I'm thinking it will have lost a lot of its energy by the time it reaches our shores. Remember this thread is only here as a just in case it does get bad and not a guarantee that it is going to. Hence that is why a warning is but a risk.

dacogawa · 05-07-2012 11:44am

Anyone have any idea what time this is going to start hitting the east coast tomorrow please ??? I've some foreign friends over & we were planning on going to Glendalough :eek:

Want to get them in & out before it hits if possible! Thanks

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 11:45am

Latest rain track for midday tomorrow.

Glendalough might not be the best place to be in, come afternoon.

dacogawa · 05-07-2012 11:54am

Thanks Redsunset, I was thinking the exact same thing, Glendalough looks to be right in the mouth of it! advice much appreciated. to the pub instead

Morrisseeee · 05-07-2012 1:50pm

Anyone care to give a prediction for the Ring Of Kerry on Saturday, me and 7999 others are doing a cycle !!!

nilhg · 05-07-2012 1:52pm

I'm ( along with reportedly 9000 others) doing the Ring of Kerry cycle on Saturday morning, what I'm seeing suggests that the worst will be over by our 6AM start time, if anyone thinks different could you keep your opinion to yourself till I'm on the road down tomorrow.:D

Hopefully it'll clear in time, 180km in the wet isn't an attractive proposition.

Morrisseeee · 05-07-2012 3:00pm

nilhg wrote: »

I'm ( along with reportedly 9000 others) doing the Ring of Kerry cycle on Saturday morning, what I'm seeing suggests that the worst will be over by our 6AM start time, if anyone thinks different could you keep your opinion to yourself till I'm on the road down tomorrow.:D

Hopefully it'll clear in time, 180km in the wet isn't an attractive proposition.

From M.T. Cranium the weather doesn't sound too bad

:

"SATURDAY ... Overnight heavy rains in the southeast (10-20 mms), then some improvement with winds backing to northerly, further showers developing but these more widely scattered around the country, 3-5 mms further rain with these, morning lows 11-13 C and afternoon highs 16-18 C.
"

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 3:19pm

Latest from Evelyn

Iancar29 · 05-07-2012 4:31pm

redsunset wrote: »

Latest from Evelyn

Seems to have nicely gone into more detail for its potential.

Still waiting on whoever is back in the HQ in Glasnevin to put out a Weather Warning....

ninebeanrows · 05-07-2012 5:02pm

Latest GFS has the heaviest stuff staying in the UK and not going across the Irish Sea.

Iancar29 · 05-07-2012 5:17pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest GFS has the heaviest stuff staying in the UK and not going across the Irish Sea.

A very odd looking run indeed... would take that with a pinch of salt until the the next one.

M.T. Cranium · 05-07-2012 7:35pm

Research-driven result here, but would expect this system to be highly charged and full of lightning (peak for this would be 0300h Saturday).

While the GFS may have coughed up a bit there, the GEM model continues to show a 6-12 hour shot of heavy rainfall across the southeast around end of Friday start of Saturday time frame.

Should underscore however that this forecast will probably be in some doubt until Friday morning as the system develops across England.

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 9:48pm

Met Éireann Weather Warning

Weather Alert for Leinster and East Munster.
A spell of heavy and possibly thundery rain will move in from the Irish Sea during Friday afternoon and evening and will continue overnight. Totals of 25 to 40 mm are likely with the highest totals expected over east and south Leinster. Valid from 06/1200 to 07/0600

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

sunbabe08 · 05-07-2012 10:08pm

for feck sake i'm only after coming down to youghal today. glorious sunshine today.

tomorrow stuck in a caravan, not fun.

Min · 05-07-2012 10:45pm

This is a disaster for the farming sector. Never seen the fields so wet for the time of year, it is getting depressing.

Already at 39mm for the month so far, so this is getting a bit ridiculous now...

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 10:52pm

Min wrote: »

This is a disaster for the farming sector. Never seen the fields so wet for the time of year, it is getting depressing.

Already at 39mm for the month so far, so this is getting a bit ridiculous now...

Yes the ground is soaked. Local farmers in bother here too, fields of potatoes are rotted in the ground. Looks like some fields will be flooded again around here, pouring out onto roads.

Deep Easterly · 05-07-2012 11:00pm

Latest EMHI HIRLAM cloud forecast for 6pm tomorrow eve has the occlusion slicing down over the SE half of the country before buckling back over more northern areas later in the night (Evelyn also mentioned potential flooding risk for the north from this system on an earlier TV forecast) Same model does not have the rain fully clearing the country until later Saturday night at the earliest.

Redsunset · 05-07-2012 11:08pm

Correct DE, I have the norths flooding probability on Saturday mentioned in first post. All bases are covered. Looks an interesting one with embedded thunderstorms helping to bring spot flooding.

Big Daddy Cool · 05-07-2012 11:26pm

ok can anybody tell me how much north meath will be effected, ive a few fields fairly saturated and wont hold much more.

dexter647 · 05-07-2012 11:26pm

Min wrote: »

This is a disaster for the farming sector. Never seen the fields so wet for the time of year, it is getting depressing.

Already at 39mm for the month so far, so this is getting a bit ridiculous now...

Yea really feel for you min and all farmers this summer...While a lot us like our extreme weather around here we should spare a thought for those who have to deal with these conditions on a day to day basis.

ninebeanrows · 06-07-2012 12:13am

Looks like some areas of UK particularly Wales to get a real hammering!

Somewhere is going to get almost 100mm in a 24 hours period.

whataboutnow · 06-07-2012 12:28am

Update for n.ireland
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=NI

highdef · 06-07-2012 3:40am

Things have kicked off very suddenly in Wales in the past hour. From nothing to torrential downpours and thunderstorms in less than an hour!!! The explosive development is more akin to an afternoon heat derived thunderstorm developing! Oh, and it's pushing in a westerly/west north west direction.....ie: towards the bottom two thirds of the east coast

DOCARCH · 06-07-2012 7:59am

From radar looks like the first of the rain is just making landfall in S Wicklow/N Wexford.

sunbabe08 · 06-07-2012 8:06am

:eek: looks like a beast of a storm

up for anything · 06-07-2012 8:25am

I'm heading to coastal Waterford today including Tramore. Is it really going to be torrential down there? I'm scared of floods since I drowned a car a few years ago and would prefer to cancel going if there's any risk of flooding on the roads down there.

Heavy Rain Warning & Potential Flooding (Friday / Saturday July 6th & 7th)

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