Heavy Rainfall (Orange) Warning for Kerry, Cork, Tipp & Waterford - Tues 23 Feb

Snowbie · 22-02-2021 7:27pm

I've done a video forecast for the upcoming warnings and looking ahead until the end of the week.

https://youtu.be/JAUNI4STc-c

aisling86 · 22-02-2021 7:57pm

Heres the timeline to the lead into the very bad floods. https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/arid-40137644.html

The dam has been increased to 225 this evening.

irishfeen · 22-02-2021 8:14pm

Full flood barriers (parts of N72 to be closed) expected to be needed in both Mallow and Fermoy on the River Blackwater with full height barriers in place (very usual). Preparations are currently being made to close in an emergency by council workers.

Beechwoodspark · 22-02-2021 8:32pm

Is there a risk there could be ninja snow (as I believe the term is on this forum) out of tonight’s rain

I ask as a girl I know who works in a local shop said she feels snow in her bones and thinks we will get a dump of it tonight - everyone in shop took heed as she’s been right in the past when met eireann got it wrong

SleetAndSnow · 22-02-2021 8:36pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Is there a risk there could be ninja snow (as I believe the term is on this forum) out of tonight’s rain

I ask as a girl I know who works in a local shop said she feels snow in her bones and thinks we will get a dump of it tonight - everyone in shop took heed as she’s been right in the past when met eireann got it wrong

Far too warm for Snow

endainoz · 22-02-2021 8:36pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Is there a risk there could be ninja snow (as I believe the term is on this forum) out of tonight’s rain

I ask as a girl I know who works in a local shop said she feels snow in her bones and thinks we will get a dump of it tonight - everyone in shop took heed as she’s been right in the past when met eireann got it wrong

Never heard of snow coming from the opposite of the Arctic in fairness. No chance

Beechwoodspark · 22-02-2021 8:40pm

endainoz wrote: »

Never heard of snow coming from the opposite of the Arctic in fairness. No chance

Maybe....hmmmm maybe..,

If you don’t mind I’ll bookmark this to read again tomorr with the hot chocolate and looking out at fields of the white gold !!

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2021 8:43pm

Small bit of a difference in wind strength between the models, I think the grouping below would be a fair average. Western counties don't look as strong as earlier runs but Southern counties now look stronger early to late morning, and staying strong enough in the SE and E into the early afternoon.

SleetAndSnow · 22-02-2021 8:44pm

Wind picking up now in Cork, just had a few gusts hit the house, spaced out around 10 mins each.

Edit: Cork City Council have also went from nothing to spamming my phone with texts every 10 minutes

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2021 8:53pm

The models are fairly grouped with rainfall totals. That's a huge amount of rain going to fall in 24 hrs or so and set to continue in places some bit into Weds. Must be some serious flood risks in the SW and S.

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2021 8:56pm

Just going to include the AROME model's predicted gusts. Seems a fair bit lower than some of the other models but did very well the last windy day. Will see how it does again.

Gaoth Laidir · 22-02-2021 8:59pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Is there a risk there could be ninja snow (as I believe the term is on this forum) out of tonight’s rain

I ask as a girl I know who works in a local shop said she feels snow in her bones and thinks we will get a dump of it tonight - everyone in shop took heed as she’s been right in the past when met eireann got it wrong

Snow is very likely alright, but only above around 2000 metres. She's good :rolleyes:

Dazler97 · 22-02-2021 9:04pm

Getting windy here in Carrick on Shannon, very mild compared to last week

SouthWesterly · 22-02-2021 9:17pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Just going to include the AROME model's predicted gusts. Seems a fair bit lower than some of the other models but did very well the last windy day. Will see how it does again.

Looks like a normal week in kerry then.
This really makes me want to take my 10 year old advice and move back to Dublin.

Just glad I'm on a mountain.

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2021 9:17pm

Getting windy now from the S here near Tralee, mild at 9.2C ( bit too warm for snow :pac: )

Rain picking up, 1.2mm

Getting milder overnight, up to 14C tomorrow and humid with a humidex feel of up to 15 or 16C.

SleetAndSnow · 22-02-2021 9:21pm

Lee Road in Cork closed due to flooding already, and it begins... Must be due to the extra water being released from the Dam

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 9:44pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Lee Road in Cork closed due to flooding already, and it begins... Must be due to the extra water being released from the Dam

Yes, and the rain hasn't even started!

https://twitter.com/floodingireland/status/1363951131815260166?s=20

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2021 9:49pm

Would it not have made more sense to release it yesterday or the day before rather than now?

Villain · 22-02-2021 9:49pm

The weather warnings are all over the place today, really poor from a communications point of view, the poor forecaster couldn’t even list all the counties before 6pm news and then they go and make it nationwide!

Gaoth Laidir · 22-02-2021 9:49pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Yes, and the rain hasn't even started!

https://twitter.com/floodingireland/status/1363951131815260166?s=20

Why do people choose to live in this area?

netbeatz · 22-02-2021 9:50pm

Does this have potential to hit Red in any areas?

Looking at the criteria it seems borderline in places

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 9:55pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Why do people choose to live in this area?

They don't. The Lee Fields, the area that is currently and often flooded is a green amenity area alongside a major road.

Donegal Ken · 22-02-2021 9:56pm

No fault to Met Éireann put there warning page is a absolute mess. Should of issued a Status yellow rainfall and wind warning for the whole country with a Orange warning for the southern parts. A orange warning also could of been issued yesterday which would give places more time to prepare. The low pressure system will be a high impact and should of been named also. I don't normally have a problem the way they handle things as most of the time the handle weather events very well but this time its been very badly done. For a normal person to go on and check there warnings I think the would look at it and be like nope not going to try and even work that out

sryanbruen · 22-02-2021 10:01pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

And Cork City Council mention up to 80mm.

How does that compare with past events? I have no grasp of rainfall figures.

Rainfall totals for various Cork stations (including some rainfall only stations) during the previous infamous wet periods of 2009 and 2015 in the region. For both of these years, the ground had already been saturated with plentiful rain from prior month or weeks. Just a small sample space but hopefully gives you an idea.

FastFullBack · 22-02-2021 10:02pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Lee Road in Cork closed due to flooding already, and it begins... Must be due to the extra water being released from the Dam

This was it Saturday, so that's no surprise:

mcburns07 · 22-02-2021 10:02pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

No fault to Met Éireann put there warning page is a absolute mess. Should of issued a Status yellow rainfall and wind warning for the whole country with a Orange warning for the southern parts. A orange warning also could of been issued yesterday which would give places more time to prepare. The low pressure system will be a high impact and should of been named also. I don't normally have a problem the way they handle things as most of the time the handle weather events very well but this time its been very badly done. For a normal person to go on and check there warnings I think the would look at it and be like nope not going to try and even work that out

I don't see what the issue is to be honest? There's various colour warnings for the areas for the appropriate times.

Dazler97 · 22-02-2021 10:02pm

Absolutely agree especially as it's an orange warning the second highest, wind is gonna be bad for all parts before the east coast gets gusts tomorrow morning as well as heavy rainfall too

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 10:04pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

No fault to Met Éireann put there warning page is a absolute mess. Should of issued a Status yellow rainfall and wind warning for the whole country with a Orange warning for the southern parts. A orange warning also could of been issued yesterday which would give places more time to prepare. The low pressure system will be a high impact and should of been named also. I don't normally have a problem the way they handle things as most of the time the handle weather events very well but this time its been very badly done. For a normal person to go on and check there warnings I think the would look at it and be like nope not going to try and even work that out

Cork City Council have a decent warning system in place for floods or other weather related events, after their abysmal failing to warn people of the dam release back in 2009. Free opt in message service via SMS and email.

I don't know how other areas manage this.
There should be a more coordinated flood warning system in place at a national level.

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2021 10:05pm

netbeatz wrote: »

Does this have potential to hit Red in any areas?

Looking at the criteria it seems borderline in places

Was wondering that too

High end Orange warning going by the Met Eireann criteria at least, but the fact that the ground is so saturated and the rivers, lakes and reservoirs are so full you would think that the predicted rainfall could cause similar if not the same effect if Red warning criteria rain fell ??

A lot of water to flow off high ground into Weds / Thurs.

Can see a lot of road and bridge damage from this, possible mud slides or land slippage , hope not too many properties are flooded.

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 10:06pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Rainfall totals for various Cork stations (including some rainfall only stations) during the previous infamous wet periods of 2009 and 2015 in the region. For both of these years, the ground had already been saturated with plentiful rain from prior month or weeks. Just a small sample space but hopefully gives you an idea.

Oh wow, the projected rainfall from this event is certainly comparable to previous flooding events so.
Thank you. Very interesting.

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2021 10:07pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Cork City Council have a decent warning system in place for floods or other weather related events, after their abysmal failing to warn people of the dam release back in 2009. Free opt in message service via SMS and email.

I don't know how other areas manage this.
There should be a more coordinated flood warning system in place at a national level.

There should be a flood and severe flood warning system in place for each river which is mentioned on the tv weather forecast when need be and a website given so everyone can go check their local river warning status.

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 10:10pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

There should be a flood and severe flood warning system in place for each river which is mentioned on the tv weather forecast when need be and a website given so everyone can go check their local river warning status.

Fully agree.
Don't the UK have something like this?

Healers39 · 22-02-2021 10:11pm

I was walking out by the lee fields earlier today and the river was overflowing onto the path between the lee fields car park and the back of the Kingsley hotel. With extra water being left off at the dam and the rain that's due to fall things could get very serious around that area.

Tyrone212 · 22-02-2021 10:12pm

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Fully agree.
Don't the UK have something like this?

They do for England and Wales that I know of.

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 10:16pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Would it not have made more sense to release it yesterday or the day before rather than now?

Same question asked.
I don't really understand Eoin English's reply.

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1363956686466281481?s=20

Oscar Bravo · 22-02-2021 10:16pm

9pm, getting windy in the south now

Valentia gusting 48 knots(89km/h)
Roaches point gusting 41 knots
Mace head gusting 42 knots

gusty generally across the country now.

SlowBlowin · 22-02-2021 10:19pm

Going out shortly to check the mountain drains above the house (to be sure - I checked earlier but there is so much dead grass around).

Anyone have any guidance if there there any spherics likely from this event ?

600FT ASL - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

igCorcaigh · 22-02-2021 10:20pm

I'm sure things will be just fine.

https://twitter.com/TheTweetOfGod/status/1363957493731192833?s=20

pauldry · 22-02-2021 10:25pm

10mm of rain so far in Valentia from this and it's not even tomorrow!

Timistry · 22-02-2021 10:39pm

Walked along the Suir this evening and its at the top of the banks still after last weeks rain. I was down in Cork Friday for work and there is a good flood in the Lee. I have a bad feeling about this!

The folks are in Kerry, hopefully the town wont flood again.

Gaoth Laidir · 22-02-2021 10:40pm

Airport warnings not too bad for wind.

CASEMENT EIME AD WRNG 02 VALID 230000/232100 WIND SFC S 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2216/2218 SSW 20-25KT MAX 40-45 FCST=

CORK EICK AD WRNG 02 VALID 222100/231800 WIND SFC SSE 25-30KT MAX 45-50 BECMG 2304/2306 SSW 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST=

DUBLIN EIDW AD WRNG 01 VALID 230000/230600 WIND SFC SSE 20-25KT MAX 35-40 FCST=

SHANNON EINN AD WRNG 01 VALID 222000/230500 WIND SFC SE 25-30KT MAX 40-45 FCST=

KNOCK EIKN AD WRNG 01 VALID 222200/230300 WIND SFC SSE 20-25KT MAX 35-40 FCST=

Donegal Ken · 22-02-2021 10:41pm

A number of warnings have been issued and updated and issued again. They could of issued a yellow wind warning nationwide and and yellow rainfall warning nationwide which would be much easier to read. All counties look like the will meet the Yellow wind and rainfall criteria with orange warnings for the south. Just my view I think its all over the place.

Donegal Ken · 22-02-2021 10:45pm

Yeah which is great but I am talking about the warnings which seem to be all over the shop on the Met Éireann website. This country is in bad need of a severe flood warning system like the UK.

SleetAndSnow · 22-02-2021 10:47pm

I think the main worry, for us in cork anyway, is the ground is still really saturated. There's still pools in patches of grass etc so 70mm on top of already saturated ground wouldn't be great.

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2021 11:11pm

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Going out shortly to check the mountain drains above the house (to be sure - I checked earlier but there is so much dead grass around).

Anyone have any guidance if there there any spherics likely from this event ?

600FT ASL - McGillycuddy Reeks - Kerry

Low chance SlowBlowin, could be the odd sferic show up around the coasts, up around the W tomorrow early perhaps but low amount if any I would think.

Darc19 · 22-02-2021 11:20pm

Donegal Ken wrote: »

Yeah which is great but I am talking about the warnings which seem to be all over the shop on the Met Éireann website. This country is in bad need of a severe flood warning system like the UK.

Sorry, but the UK has far more "surprise" floods than we do.

I never understand this "UK is better" rubbish. I lived there, relations live there, and the met office get it right and wrong as much as the met office here.

We are an island and have the most unpredictable weather in the world. That is life.

I think the warnings on met.ie are extremely easy to follow and understand. Even a quick glance will give me a good idea of any extra care required.

Can't see what is difficult to understand

Villain · 22-02-2021 11:24pm

Darc19 wrote: »

Sorry, but the UK has far more "surprise" floods than we do.

I never understand this "UK is better" rubbish. I lived there, relations live there, and the met office get it right and wrong as much as the met office here.

We are an island and have the most unpredictable weather in the world. That is life.

I think the warnings on met.ie are extremely easy to follow and understand. Even a quick glance will give me a good idea of any extra care required.

Can't see what is difficult to understand

The UK have a flood warning system but ours isn’t up and running yet, however Met Éireann have one coming with a team working on it.

The problem with the current system is the rainfall warnings don’t take River levels or precious rainfall into account. You could have 30mm every day for a week and it would be all Yellow warnings but the impact would obviously get worse as the cumulative effect was felt. That is the clear issue with the current system.

SouthWesterly · 22-02-2021 11:27pm

Can someone shed any light on the reason for the temperature rise overnight and tomorrow?

Snowbie · 22-02-2021 11:32pm

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Can someone shed any light on the reason for the temperature rise overnight and tomorrow?

Winds are sourced from the mid latitudes way south of Ireland where it is warmer (semi Tropical) and its been dragged north from the deep area of low pressure out west of Ireland

Meteorite58 · 22-02-2021 11:50pm

5mm here in Tralee so far.

Gusting to 74 km/h SSE.

Seen 90 km/h gust in Valentia in an earlier obs.

NetWeather

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Total accumulation , based on radar returns.

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Heavy Rainfall (Orange) Warning for Kerry, Cork, Tipp & Waterford - Tues 23 Feb

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