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Heavy Rainfall (Orange) Warning for Kerry, Cork, Tipp & Waterford - Tues 23 Feb

  • 21-02-2021 12:44pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Thought it might be worth putting up a dedicated thread for the Windy and very wet spell coming up. The strongest winds will be from late Monday into early Tuesday morning accompanied by heavy rainfall. Rainfall, heavy at times will continue with blustery winds through Tuesday and rain fall set to continue in parts into Weds.





    Windy overnight Mon into Tues, high end yellow warning but close enough to an Orange warning perhaps. Main issue though looks to be rainfall amounts, yellow warnings and possibly meeting Orange warning criteria in the SW, and S .Could get quite a large area getting over 50 mm in 24 hrs and rain set to continue into Weds . This on top of saturated ground and full lakes and rivers.

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    What the other models are showing atm. ARPEGE and GFS looks fairly strong up along Atlantic counties early Tuesday morning.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big sea swell along Western coasts around midweek from the Storm out in the Atlantic.

    Long trailing front being drawn up from the over the country from the S/ SW on a moist warm humid airflow. Looks like getting up to 14C or locally higher on Tuesday.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    And a warning from Met Eireann.

    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Munster, Connacht

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    ​​Heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday coupled with strong southerly winds. Some river and localised surface flooding possible. Rainfall totals of 30 to 50mm, higher in mountainous regions.

    Valid: 00:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021 to 00:00 Wednesday 24/02/2021

    Issued: 11:36 Sunday 21/02/2021


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭✭✭ windows 7 home premium


    It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

    Howso?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭✭✭ windows 7 home premium


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Howso?

    idk, it's just how things are usually.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,993 ✭✭✭ giveitholly


    It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

    Would it not be the North West that suffers the most from storms?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    idk, it's just how things are usually.

    Okay, sure but is it just purely anecdotal?

    The West Coast is battered much worse by storms, I've spent time in Waterford and they just don't hit the same as they hit here in West Clare.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭✭✭ windows 7 home premium


    I know, I am just tired of storms and wind and rain at this stage and I just want some warm sunny weather which we had very little of last summer. Sick of constant wind and rain.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    I know, I am just tired of storms and wind and rain at this stage and I just want some warm sunny weather which we had very little of last summer. Sick of constant wind and rain.

    Hopefully the high pressure on FI charts (meaning more then 120 hours away), will bring calm sunny weather. Won't be particularly warm though!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo




  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    It's always the south east that suffers most from these storms. We are overdue a long dry spell here, the ground has been saturated for the last 8 months.

    To be fair much of connaught might have double the rainfall of the southeast


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow, Kilkenny, Wexford, Munster, Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo

    Southerly winds will reach mean wind speeds of 50 to 65km/h, with gusts of 90 to 110km/h, possibly higher on exposed coasts. Where winds are onshore there is a risk of coastal flooding. ​

    Valid: 21:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 06:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

    Issued: 14:46 Sunday 21/02/2021


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    EPS (mean of all of the ECMWF runs) rainfall totals out to Wed midnight:

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    Munster / S. Leinster more favoured to bare the brunt.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Cork2021


    Villain wrote: »
    I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

    Any thunderstorms going to be associated with this? It does look nasty to be honest, flooding in all
    Of cork and Kerry is a real possibility. The likes of Bantry and Kenmare have been through the mill a lot later as has Cork City Centre


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,580 ✭✭✭ SouthWesterly


    Thought it might be worth putting up a dedicated thread for the Windy and very wet spell coming up. The strongest winds will be from late Monday into early Tuesday morning accompanied by heavy rainfall. Rainfall, heavy at times will continue with blustery winds through Tuesday and rain fall set to continue in parts into Weds.





    Windy overnight Mon into Tues, high end yellow warning but close enough to an Orange warning perhaps. Main issue though looks to be rainfall amounts, yellow warnings and possibly meeting Orange warning criteria in the SW, and S .Could get quite a large area getting over 50 mm in 24 hrs and rain set to continue into Weds . This on top of saturated ground and full lakes and rivers.
    ]

    Looking at that I'm glad I got over to Barrow today. Beautiful after hardly a breeze :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Villain wrote: »
    I don’t often question the Met Éireann warnings but this looks nasty and potential for some serious flooding!

    Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Cork2021


    Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

    Looking at the blackwater since Friday, obviously it broke its banks and spilled onto park road in Mallow, but it’s seriously fast moving and full now, you’ve so much water flowing into it, Kanturk rivers heaving, Funcheon heaving as well


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Still time to upgrade tomorrow if necessary.

    Gerry Murphy after the news emphasized the strong winds and significant gusts and threats of flooding in Munster and said to keep an eye on warnings for updates.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Latest ICON 18Z has eased off the winds a fair bit, UKMO not a great chart but showing stronger winds and high rainfall totals. There will be some water coming off the mountains, I agree places like Kenmare would need to be on high alert.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭ aisling86


    The water on the macroom side of the dam is seriously high this evening with this amount of rain to come!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Latest GFS quite strong around the coasts, not as big rainfall totals but would be looking towards the more Hi Res models from here.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ARPEGE 18Z still showing some strong winds around the coasts, especially the SW

    Approx 24 hrs of rainfall below apart from a few mm extra perhaps.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 19 ✭✭✭ windows 7 home premium


    I'm predicting a lot of serious flooding with this event, rivers are already very high and many fields waterlogged. A dry spell will be welcome, hopefully.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Yep this is going to show the farce that is rainfall warnings when we don't have a flood warning system up and running fully yet. A yellow warning with up to 100mm coming and many parts of the Southwest going to flood!

    This needs attention quickly!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,394 ✭✭✭ adocholiday


    The windy app has downgraded the winds for the Wicklow coast since last night with the GFS, ECM and Arome models all down. Icon keeps them stronger. Rainfall totals looking like about 40mm for the Wicklow coast too again according to Windy's representation of the model data.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Cork, Kerry, Waterford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Very heavy rain on Monday night and Tuesday will likely cause further river flooding and surface water flooding. Rainfall totals of 50 to 80mm, higher in mountainous regions.

    Valid: 19:00 Monday 22/02/2021 to 21:00 Tuesday 23/02/2021

    Issued: 10:05 Monday 22/02/2021


  • Registered Users Posts: 103 ✭✭ Lip Out


    The windy app has downgraded the winds for the Wicklow coast since last night with the GFS, ECM and Arome models all down. Icon keeps them stronger. Rainfall totals looking like about 40mm for the Wicklow coast too again according to Windy's representation of the model data.

    Strange that Wicklow is not included in the yellow warning. Looks like it will be wet, especially so in the afternoon. Ground very saturated as it is.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Tipperary added now too


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